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00:03 | Oh, sorry. I dropped ahead technical difficulties. Get my lighter. |
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00:24 | . Going to start with a very little area. So there is the |
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00:29 | area we've got. Flow is going left to right. And in this |
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00:37 | dive around we have Black Arrow represents amount of sediment coming in to this |
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00:46 | . Larger Black Arrow represents the amount sediment going out off the air. |
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00:52 | you stop less settlement coming in more . In that case, is the |
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01:01 | degrading or is it angry? So up. If you think it's |
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01:14 | thumbs up if you think it's Okay, thumbs up. If you |
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01:21 | it's aggravating. Okay, so way less suddenly coming in. More sentiment |
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01:32 | out. So the flocks of sediment is doing What if more Senate's coming |
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01:41 | ? We added removing settlements in the . That means the bed has to |
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01:50 | degraded, more set up, coming going in. We've got removing |
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02:00 | You have the opposite. We've got sentiment coming in and going from that |
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02:07 | , we have less someone coming out coming in. All right, So |
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02:12 | say that the worst happened that your got flooded in the storm surge and |
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02:19 | open the door and water came rushing house and you over the back to |
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02:23 | let out, but less water went . They came in the water level |
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02:27 | the house, right? Okay. , you could over sub door and |
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02:36 | water would come in. One would the house, and then you find |
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02:39 | you're getting drier with. So in case, if you got more Senate |
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02:43 | again, let's go out. So looking at sentiments. You've either got |
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02:52 | degradation. In some cases, you have neither. Which passes. So |
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03:01 | troubles? Whether or not we get of an area for aggregation. And |
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03:08 | things are controlled by obviously, you to have sentiment in the first |
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03:13 | But a lot of these a lot the flux of settlement in a given |
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03:17 | is controlled by you have to flow have a settlement. Fox, you |
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03:23 | to get storage deck or illusion? deposition erosion according to whether that flips |
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03:29 | occurring over smoke that's increasing or decreasing rose in general is his favorite by |
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03:37 | sweeps. So back a Have you that the undulation of the water surface |
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04:08 | of phase with respect to the undulation sentiment, which is that black |
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04:13 | The lower surface. Over here we that the water surface is decreasing in |
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04:20 | on the bed surfaces coming on. , so the cross sectional area is |
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04:27 | from left to right for those of efficient assists. You know all about |
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04:33 | conservation of energy, mass and basic realities. So if we have water |
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04:41 | from left to right and the water getting shallower from left to right, |
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04:47 | have to conserve the volume of water passing area. That's called discharge W |
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04:56 | the volume of water moving past So if we have to maintain the |
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05:02 | of water moving, passing area years shallower. What is happening to the |
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05:08 | of the water? It's increasing. , because you gotta conserve massive |
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05:21 | right? So because the water the velocity shear stress goes on. |
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05:27 | enhances inclusion on the back of the get erosion where they want to get |
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05:33 | and speed zone. They get deposition the water gets deeper and philosophy slows |
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05:40 | . So what happens when you get on the back side of the |
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05:48 | Get so getting emotional backside and deposition the front rows in the back |
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05:55 | Deposition in front. Okay, that the cross fitting. We see when |
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06:00 | look at sedimentary structures, that is instantaneous changes. Whether we have |
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06:09 | depending on the flux of broader settlement the area, erosion and deposition could |
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06:17 | rapidly at the scale of dead forms might migrate over periods of minutes. |
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06:26 | . That's that's all well and fine that's what controls erosion at the state |
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06:31 | instantaneous processes. Okay, what about scale processes? So here's a little |
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06:42 | schematic diagram. You physicists will be very familiar with these concepts. Geologists |
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06:49 | probably had a high school physics course dark dens of their of your |
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06:57 | And so diagram shows the base of river flow and then the river water |
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07:07 | running down. Okay, draw the diagram. Okay, So here's the |
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07:16 | . Okay. We're gonna put a on earth, and obviously water collects |
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07:22 | the mountain, talk a snow, then with the snow mounts, water |
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07:27 | down the side of the mountain. ? And there's a veteran force that |
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07:35 | , that points towards the center of earth. Okay, Anybody tell me |
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07:41 | ? That venture of forces that pulls water towards the center of the |
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07:48 | That's correct. I couldn't hear but I could see your lips. |
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07:52 | . So good luck. So that's gravitational force. Okay, but if |
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07:58 | blow that up, okay, there's mounts inside, okay? And there |
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08:03 | the surface of the earth, so force is perpendicular to the to the |
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08:09 | of the earth. Okay, there's flowing down that slope. So that |
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08:17 | essentially be that, uh, that live there. Okay, that green |
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08:24 | is the is the pressure force that's that's directed towards the center of the |
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08:32 | . That's the gravitational force, because operating on a slow way. Could |
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08:39 | that green our into using standard right trigonometry to veterans so we could we |
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08:48 | draw the vector that's perpendicular to the , which is an angle towards which |
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08:55 | not parallel to the surface of the , is it? It's a different |
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09:00 | . And then we have a smaller , which is the white arrow that's |
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09:04 | , That service, So that little vector. Is this your strips? |
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09:19 | , that's the pressure force. That's to flow. And it's the resolution |
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09:24 | the pressure force that's directed towards the of the earth and the pressure force |
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09:30 | perpendicular to the different service. That's physics off the shear stress that produces |
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09:38 | hydraulic head that forces water to flow . We can capture that. So |
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09:47 | pressure for us, that's points towards center of the earth, which is |
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09:52 | greed factor is the density of the . That's right, which is 1 |
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09:57 | per cubic centimeter. The gravitational constant , which is 9.8 meters per |
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10:03 | squared on the flow depths of being White Arrow. Okay, is the |
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10:13 | the the 10 Geant off multiplied by pressure foods clear that the sure stresses |
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10:24 | much smaller force that pressure floors. it's enough to drive that. So |
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10:31 | the pressure for us multiplied by the of the yes, you yourself, |
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10:46 | for me. You said that so could be either. So the slopes |
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10:55 | going to get to this in just bit. Over which river flows sorry |
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11:05 | over which rivers flow our chicken much than one degree. And for slopes |
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11:14 | are one degree or smaller tangent and sign or the same, you hear |
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11:23 | trigonometry changin is the opposite of the . The sun is the opposite over |
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11:35 | Pont news for very small angles. that's testify continues. That's the adjacent |
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11:43 | that's the opposite. Okay, and green arrow and the red arrow almost |
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11:48 | same. And so the angle of changes inside. Yes, you would |
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12:01 | that if the angle was 23 But there are no flows that flow |
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12:09 | slopes and that high, except for you would worry about that. If |
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12:16 | building a dam for natural river flows sentiment or set of flows in |
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12:24 | this folks are just too trivial. fact, if I draw if I |
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12:33 | it real, that would be a slow right drama. Tangent is the |
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12:56 | . That's age sign is the That's Jason. You can see on |
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13:07 | diagram of the length of the adjacent the hot pot use because the slope |
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13:11 | so trivial. Differences is like 10 places. That just doesn't Do you |
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13:21 | a question yes, shouldn't h B to the Green Line? Or we |
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13:27 | ignoring or were considering that the because right now, the way CH is |
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13:33 | parallel to the red line ages is green red is adjacent. Okay, |
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13:40 | , because because Justin, on the of this of this picture, it's |
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13:44 | of, but I guess this is a victor. It shows, you |
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13:48 | , that it has a flying above below. It is almost parallel to |
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13:53 | river. Correct? Yeah, but it's actually the length off the |
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13:59 | . Yes, yeah, you could for that, but it's it's |
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14:04 | It's pretty trivial. Yeah, because slopes so small difference between the green |
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14:12 | Red line pretty tricky. Agree that the yet it's right on my divided |
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14:16 | either red or orange. Get away it because becomes so it's no, |
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14:23 | not legally correct in terms of the , but it's it's for engineering |
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14:29 | It's thank you that suggestion between sides engineers. Engineers take short cuts. |
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14:38 | just always get confused by the Have you heard the jump? About |
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14:44 | geophysicist, the engineer geologist. I the manager says, So what's the |
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14:51 | that judges, That's about 10 or three. Engineer says. It's 10.349 |
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14:58 | . That's whatever you want. It . It's almost a joke back to |
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15:09 | basics here. So we have this, rather one of the horrible |
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15:17 | about I. I have this conversation students all the time because they go |
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15:23 | with all the terminology and particularly in . And I say, Well, |
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15:28 | . If you love math, no , that's a difference. If you're |
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15:34 | , it's all equations before gel. it's all terminology. We don't let |
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15:38 | terminology becoming mathematician. You can do math. We have to start with |
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15:42 | fact that you use one word, different things, right? Have you |
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15:48 | the fact that there are different meetings the same so based level should be |
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15:54 | . Office right level means flat, . That's flat. Okay, based |
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16:02 | . So I'm sitting in the basement my house. Right basement means the |
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16:08 | . So based on what it the surface that's at the base of |
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16:14 | now the contact of strata graphic base is a little bit more complicated. |
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16:20 | defined as imaginary surface that separates emotions deposition. If we go back to |
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16:30 | example, recognize that there's erosion Deposition here, okay, and the |
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16:38 | of erosion is and surface below which current so bed forms reflects a |
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16:47 | In this case, surface of separates from deposition is a curving surface. |
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16:53 | The curvature is it's trivial in the scheme of things, because it's a |
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16:57 | 20 bed form on the river bed might have to diffuse entity was getting |
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17:04 | . It's not a flat surface, the undulation with respect to, |
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17:08 | the surface of the earth is It's not like you can scared |
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17:13 | Basically now, I asked. You the term equilibrium profile? Any point |
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17:22 | got water flowing, sentiments moving. got road in one place and depositions |
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17:27 | another. Okay, rivers flowing down slope. The river is trying to |
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17:33 | some sort of equilibrium conditions. It never do that because river struggles with |
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17:40 | fact that the water discharge is always . It's raining one week. It's |
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17:45 | the next week, and sometimes the surface moving over the short term, |
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17:52 | main control on river profiles are the changes in the amount of water in |
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17:58 | system. On that latest exploited, talk about grated river profile was being |
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18:09 | . Talk about the grated marine shelf and as an example of something that |
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18:16 | all familiar with the end of the , poses a glorified word that means |
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18:23 | end of rest. If you are what my wife likes to do, |
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18:29 | is helping dig dirt in your honor you start piling up upon the |
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18:35 | Eventually, that hill san goes up a pile and then it starts to |
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18:41 | , right? So if you take you, I don't know if you |
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18:45 | kids. When you have kids, and you take them to the |
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18:52 | they build a sand castle. If a dry beach that they'll build a |
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18:58 | up, it actually gets too high the sand falls down the sides of |
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19:03 | maximum slow bill filled up ahead of before it begins to small is the |
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19:10 | proposed Let's go back to bed, example, this'll here that forms the |
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19:17 | of avalanches. Faces of Britain do forms for alien windblown dunes that, |
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19:24 | was called the angle of repose, that's an equilibrium. And the end |
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19:29 | a pose is controlled by the friction grains of sand on slow gravity of |
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19:36 | that's dragging those grains down the Very locked up hill. You know |
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19:43 | it takes effort because you're struggling, gravity, wants to to fall down |
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19:47 | hill, you know, and you to lie on the friction between your |
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19:52 | on the asphalt to keep you going . And if you have done rock |
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19:57 | or vertical climbing, you know that very dangerous because you have to find |
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20:02 | flat crevice. Hold on, to prevent force of gravity from |
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20:10 | So that's the angle of repose. small changes in these profiles results of |
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20:19 | , deposition at the scale of institutions form bed forms for in regional surfaces |
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20:25 | form over thousands tens of thousands millions years, representing large regional conformity ease |
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20:34 | are used to define sequences. in addition to strata, graphic face |
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20:41 | , which is a concept that's used photographers. There's this concept of June |
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20:46 | based, used by do pathologist and geographers, geologist, geographer. I |
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20:54 | to think of landscapes and your morphology landscape is in is in a state |
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21:01 | degrading. On that area is in state off angry, so you were |
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21:07 | . Just tend to think of landscapes decoration aggregation. They say that landscape |
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21:12 | basically degrading. It is tending towards level. Typically, they they take |
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21:19 | off level is the lowest land Two ways to work with the lancer |
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21:24 | to, and typically that's taken to processed sea level for late left, |
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21:32 | level and use authority level applies a surface. Okay, become a slot |
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21:40 | I'm mistaken started for them. So a few concept of base level. |
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21:48 | we have this concept of used to , and I think I already explained |
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21:51 | . Used to see refers to the in the volume of ceiling. There |
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21:57 | two things that control one is the of water in the oceans. There's |
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22:03 | only one way to get brother. is actually two ways to change the |
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22:10 | of water of the oceans. I gonna ask questions. Does anyone know |
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22:16 | you change the volume of water in oceans? Former nice guys. Joseph |
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22:27 | two answers there when you realized honest changed the temperature and the heart of |
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22:34 | against the more it expands colder against and changes in ocean temperature cause you |
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22:43 | something on a scale of 10 centimeters change of sea level. So if |
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22:49 | gets rummer very active, roaming the wall will cause it to. Joseph |
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22:55 | said something else, which is if take water well. He didn't say |
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23:00 | full fledged, but if you take out of the oceans stored on land |
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23:06 | ice, then you'll reduce the level catastrophic. So during the place to |
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23:14 | Flynn, Antarctica, Greenland and most North America and a lot of northern |
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23:21 | were covered with ice sheets. in other words, 150 m lower |
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23:26 | today. Change the volume of the water heating, cooling it and by |
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23:35 | some of the water ablutions story on . Now the other way that we |
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23:41 | the following about the ocean basins change actual size of the volume of the |
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23:47 | basin that has nothing to do with amount of water in the oceans. |
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23:52 | has to do with the size of ocean. Does anyone ever cultural controls |
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23:57 | that's his number to change in the capacity. How does that work? |
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24:11 | right answer. But that's not an . I guess I could say, |
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24:15 | , different. You feel margin. get rapidly society based on your dining |
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24:21 | , face for fluid or settlements. if you're maybe a convergent Martin, |
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24:28 | you're losing accommodations, face and losing that water, sort of on the |
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24:39 | track that the simple answer is when have a lot of young ocean |
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24:46 | your times of confidence break off, as the Break of Virginia back on |
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24:51 | program for a breaking pan geo during meditations that was a lot of |
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24:57 | ocean crossed, sea level spreading. going gangbusters and young Ocean Cross is |
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25:09 | ocean across this horror cold. Uh and Hawkes. Ocean crust is less |
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25:19 | for more dates. At a blessed rises by Isis Stassi floats higher on |
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25:28 | satisfied. So when you got times rapid see floors, Fred, a |
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25:34 | of young oceanic crust the oceanic ridges much higher, and that creates less |
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25:41 | in the oceans for water displaces that all around. So the other thing |
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25:46 | causes rise low. The rise of level appears in history. That's detector |
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25:55 | . I appreciate that. That was very nice way to plate tectonics is |
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26:03 | so much about the combination of the margin. It's a spreading mulch in |
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26:08 | . It's really if you think about big, big oceanic plate, its |
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26:12 | in heart, literally some time, that literally that the oceans are smaller |
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26:18 | terms of family and the water has be something so soft. Transgression of |
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26:24 | beginning of the pain is always Pretentious transgression, Highest flood periods in |
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26:30 | history, times off super constant. up with cycles so that those big |
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26:37 | strata graphic We will return to that in the class. In this |
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26:44 | we jumped 40. Any topic for does that so confused that takes away |
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26:49 | election. I do appreciate the interactions . We also use the word relative |
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26:57 | level. I don't like that. a relative seen on relative changes. |
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27:03 | , can't say I ever interested But you see the look and change |
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27:07 | , you could be standing 10 m water, you know, with Mississippi |
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27:12 | to 10 kilometer away from and, know, in a year's time, |
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27:17 | just appropriated towards you now. The that used to be in 10 ft |
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27:22 | water is now filled with adults, you could see that the sea level |
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27:27 | is less there because the water's sold of sentiment. We see this a |
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27:31 | of a fall of sea level. that booth sentiment for settlement set boundary |
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27:41 | has risen of locally because of sometimes for two rounds. And Bill |
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27:48 | introductory introduced a new term your battle refer to local See that chains change |
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27:56 | static. The first two local We're not gonna talk a lot about |
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28:02 | terms, but they're extremely they inserted the center of interest in seeking photography |
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28:10 | years. I should have gone off that stuff already focused on process |
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28:17 | talked about about sea level changes and is might be relevant. Now, |
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28:27 | already referred to this. One of things that I turned about is that |
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28:34 | I started university, I was a and physics major. I was pretty |
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28:40 | calculus. I gotta tell you what happened is I went to music |
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28:45 | for a year. And then I back to geology, a life without |
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28:48 | account of bad about because But as Jew physics professor, find out you |
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28:56 | a drama. You still have a numbers. I guess I do so |
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29:03 | . Sometimes. Ask students. What's slope of the average river? |
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29:07 | One degree when I point out that off by to this riff Orders of |
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29:14 | . So one of the steepest slopes nature. This is a question, |
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29:23 | , that first gamers. Craig, first day, Dylan s wettest appropriate |
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29:30 | use tender versus side. Well, know, if you got smokes referring |
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29:36 | 32 degrees, that difference comes in At the end of repose started to |
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29:44 | but the longest. The largest extent an angle of repose might be |
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29:51 | Dudes, Saara those might get up I hooked up the story In |
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29:59 | you can get up to 100 but that's about it. So maybe |
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30:03 | ft locally Latell creation in the river 50. The continental smoke is to |
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30:13 | . That's a pretty small slow. content of the shelf is less than |
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30:19 | Okay, The accident. 2 two kilometers. That's an absolute |
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30:28 | That would be, you know, non common rivers. Most rivers for |
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30:35 | of 10 for minus 3 to Modest far. Mississippi's one of the |
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30:40 | radiant rivers in the world that has 10.2 The run loose, which is |
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30:48 | big European river that feeds into the Elin's starts. Germany is about 10 |
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30:56 | four. So points in wonder, thing to think about with you. |
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31:03 | got on the field with a broken . Okay? And when you're taking |
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31:08 | striking, what's the What's the lowest you measure of your branch in |
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31:19 | I think for the Dan, Did have an accident? What's the smallest |
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31:25 | measure with your compass in the Precision reference and Mike. So what |
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31:37 | you do if you're trying to Spoke this 0.2 Online measure this phone |
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31:48 | Mississippi, just like a simple source . Just throw it straight line. |
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31:57 | . So do I. Drive uh, I would drive from Sri |
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32:07 | to Norman's, and I would count make my elevation, Dr. You |
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32:14 | , probably four or five hours. I drop 60 ft, Captain, |
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32:18 | distance that I know the slow. if all I had was was brushing |
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32:23 | furnace tried to put it as an on the Mississippi River. I don't |
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32:28 | on the major this morning. What means is thes such objective measure rocks |
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32:34 | ? And yet these really important. the smoke changes from 10 minus three |
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32:41 | sort of tender minus 5 to 10 four, that's a manager with increasing |
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32:49 | to finer than even measure with Just recognized that slopes, frost erosion |
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32:58 | deposition. Pretty damn small. that one of the other things that |
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33:05 | in petroleum always were extremely vertically No apartment to have 100 to 1000 |
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33:14 | . Vertical exaggeration size. Well, crossing. That's food because that means |
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33:19 | slopes from 1/10 of a degree, speed in a subsurface fruit. So |
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33:27 | talk about that. Come to talk methods. Okay, so here's our |
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33:37 | that we kind of started. There's shelf 1/10 of a degree. There's |
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33:42 | slope about four degrees, maybe about distances, right? So distance of |
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33:48 | tracks show could be 1500 Salama's The slope might be 1000 kilometers, |
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33:56 | on scale, with confidence margin, it's active, passive and the confidence |
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34:02 | getting very from 0 to 600 Here is what those replied with no |
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34:07 | exaggeration. The upper diagram has a times. Now we can come back |
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34:19 | this concept of base level had grated . Um, so here's an example |
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34:30 | a simple greater pro fall, and can imagine turbine the language. So |
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34:40 | this case for dropping, so do want us fire lower two threes |
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34:48 | How would you produce them? How you physically take curving land surface |
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34:54 | To do that, Rose could lower answer. I see same surface that's |
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35:06 | one here. That's what the this example that's middle of that dropsy |
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35:15 | now. The shots were afraid and that dashed line represents move. In |
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35:27 | case, a single drop that exposes small on the river that was originally |
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35:34 | to that point is now greater to point. And as soon as it |
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35:39 | over, that point there speeds So I really would like to be |
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35:47 | is the national Everything about the dash is a Canada River, as a |
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35:54 | is before that makes sense. For , here's three examples off drops of |
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36:08 | up that explosion different kinds of So the left case drop of sea |
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36:18 | from my blue doctor exposes fist breaking . Call the point along this prosection |
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36:28 | there's a change. Sharon to a slope, has a big you'll be |
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36:35 | about that on the fruits. This an important concept, so just imagine |
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36:41 | a runner. Fossil cyclists. If citing relatively flat, suddenly steep |
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36:50 | what happens to for running is a different because I tend to slow down |
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37:06 | if you're running and you're going to it down and maybe slow down. |
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37:17 | you could just allow the grab a was the increase of forced to allow |
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37:22 | to run faster. So what happens a river, of course, doesn't |
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37:27 | . So when the rivers is in , there it speeds up, and |
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37:31 | a priest lost river. Initially, was a story towards that destination. |
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37:40 | about that death stores surface is a for with all round by the river |
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37:47 | necessary because river is a narrow band Florida that's Florida Lord area. So |
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37:55 | make the area wasting wall made mason Rivers not in the right hand crews |
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38:07 | have a drop of semen, but case see noble explosions exposes a lower |
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38:14 | . So let's go back to the for the fighting going down Hill, |
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38:19 | then it starts to get from you know what happens to your speed. |
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38:25 | your screen best running down like Something feel the line gets water. |
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38:34 | I really wanted to say as it down the water that's rushing behind, |
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38:39 | starts to back up. That will sentiment with rivers carrying to begin to |
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38:48 | . That's a total Now in the . Cade's we have. I see |
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38:54 | fall exposes. Smoke has no In that case, perhaps the |
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39:01 | This is far from over a little longer distance. So maybe experience a |
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39:07 | bit of professional deceleration because it's simply service for over never also just their |
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39:19 | for shame. They might go from into meandering if you girls Steve, |
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39:25 | Snow do that. But they could change grading to graining, the point |
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39:37 | so if you are flows that air down slow and they start to slow |
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39:42 | because increases that's normally the place where position this becomes really for before shut |
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39:51 | the confidence to smoke As soon as get it wrong. Guess wrong. |
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39:59 | where they go from the jeopardy currents return it deposit that becomes the trouble |
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40:04 | in this room. 70 fan. thing for Trump. Points represent transition |
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40:12 | the stever lower smoke. That initiative a point represents a transition from a |
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40:21 | , which are lower snow for changes in slow for critical controls. |
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40:32 | That makes sense. At that point , the rest did a great little |
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40:42 | PG pager that summarized that concert. I spent some time on the slide |
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40:51 | it's quite critical. Okay, yeah, what we have is is |
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40:58 | same diagram. All I've done is . That's that diagram shows. This |
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41:07 | this scenario from the high stand to asi that I standing understand falling |
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41:14 | It is a cross section. There training, so there is a cross |
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41:19 | . Now I understand it was a that's about a little high standard. |
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41:28 | enough drops exposed chefs from along that . Okay, I called out a |
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41:37 | , which is from my new that on that mine. Get a |
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41:42 | So little Nick cuts So crazy Story to January. I was with my |
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41:51 | for three weeks things to play about Russian death. So I was trying |
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42:00 | shave that they're like, if you're lips because I've always kind of drives |
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42:03 | crazy I'm sure my upper lip was So Nick is like my wife likes |
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42:18 | . How'd you like shaving? So of all gender know what it's like |
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42:26 | pick themselves with razors to use that get rid of some here. So |
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42:32 | imagine the process to say drop. that? And you know, babies |
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42:36 | a bit. Here, this is a little diamond shaped mix along that |
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42:44 | . Now, this Nick here is said so in addition to taking some |
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42:49 | the sentiment dumping which we did in office there we have the initial for |
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42:56 | , deeper sentiments that as a consequence that, he knows that this export |
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43:02 | points here that something little blobs a of here that aren't shown but not |
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43:09 | so the rivers here supposing that something passes Let time pass. And so |
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43:24 | past. We noticed that that big has the submarine. This may point |
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43:33 | migrated landward. So this Nick Point created this ratifying sort of drainage base |
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43:44 | can. It looks like that as regulates stand, I wonder. Wallet |
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43:51 | this area grown in this area has , so there's there's the erosion, |
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44:02 | some reason, is not able to much erosion here. This area doesn't |
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44:07 | a major river in it. It's scholars, whatever water. But it's |
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44:13 | areas, grown control, race and degree to which the land arose. |
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44:20 | idea. Listen to this club climate . It's good at just two |
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44:40 | so this area is difficult to This area's easy to. Maybe that's |
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44:49 | , and maybe there's some settlements. this is also exploding, but not |
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44:56 | much. Look what happens here. the half happens this time passes |
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45:02 | This nick for has grown some So now the rivers phone here and |
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45:09 | know this summary fan here's is Five it is. Is this summary |
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45:17 | this composed of what every settlement being this in this area of settlement. |
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45:27 | , suddenly fan labour time is being my sentiments coming from a larger drainage |
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45:34 | Landward this point is now abandoned. point never had a big with |
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45:47 | Now what is your experience? Raissi You see the horizons and questions want |
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45:59 | these valleys filled with a sea level ? That's the question. I believe |
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46:08 | clue this this family stranded value has little my speak river all sorts of |
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46:22 | Big River is not going anywhere. when similar begins to rise So that |
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46:28 | is gonna feel about so welcomes feels value. Alluvial sediments? Yes, |
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46:37 | those. Let's say that now this family have a and that river dumps |
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46:47 | from Santa. Something fan with big never filled until after the river |
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46:54 | So is that What's that battle? trance breast, Fine ocean. What |
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47:02 | you think? That right? So ? You better resolution if you're exploring |
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47:15 | incised valleys which value on its One this feeling remote for one's |
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47:25 | So let me give you a real . Example. 1990 It was 96 |
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47:35 | Atlantic Richfield Company, the company. work for a big international exploration |
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47:42 | and they drilled to a most expensive wells ever drilled in history. They |
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47:51 | Romania in the Black Sea. That Sosnik data beautiful, massive separations. |
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48:01 | feel anyone who knows very it's a gas sometimes called John Hardy carbon indicator |
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48:19 | corrected its gas. And and the managers had very little experience anywhere the |
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48:29 | except the Gulf of Mexico. if you submit to get generals |
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48:33 | it's almost always Yes, that s may not have so, so vast |
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48:42 | which was a company that used to response. Before exploration in the lower |
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48:48 | states, those guys had about 5% exploration success in their gas grounds in |
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48:55 | Gulf of Mexico. Some of those ended up working on this foster playing |
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49:01 | Romania Avio gas. They drove these rounds and guess wrong. They accounted |
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49:14 | of meters of carbon dioxide for And you know what, mom? |
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49:24 | is a calculus. That was a big school. So I asked him |
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49:33 | wasn't doing well, but I did post operative review with I said, |
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49:38 | , What was the wrist that these were filled with mud versus sensed |
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49:44 | We have 100% certain your sensitive So they had to be sandstone because |
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49:50 | valleys, someone like guys west phone you know clearly shows that sometimes valleys |
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50:03 | with fast, 50% certainty, like service Vantage. Try expressing no |
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50:14 | You'll sandstone one earth You saw a of 100% certainty yourself what it should |
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50:22 | . Right. So remember now, of you. This is your first |
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50:27 | . Um, I forgot to do introductions, so maybe we'll do those |
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50:33 | today, but that, you part of what I'm gonna do this |
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50:37 | . Something that, to be some of your college professors are able |
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50:42 | do because they never told from They have any background in at the |
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50:50 | This is not a fortunate every day your life. For your company, |
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50:55 | have to be aware of the economics your business and enjoy that moons. |
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51:04 | time you make a geological verification, should ask, what's the risk that |
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51:09 | may be wrong? How confident my transfusions threat that goes into how risk |
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51:18 | risk goes into the booth decision was good managers make about where to spend |
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51:24 | dollars because attending massage company that They give you the money for. |
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51:31 | give you Joseph money. They give the money plate Dylan, depending on |
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51:37 | play they think this is the And if you, if you don't |
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51:41 | what you're doing with brisket and and you say there's 100% certain here, |
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51:46 | they're not smaller to realize the error your scientific risk, they may give |
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51:51 | the money with Drill a dry well behalf of those, stop and you'll |
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51:57 | a lot of money that, you , I drilled Wells familiar. What |
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52:06 | It's a lot less from drilling. a lot less than drilling, you |
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52:13 | , $10 million well in, I rest all of my wells. But |
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52:21 | a geologist may very well. Even production drilling, you might get to |
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52:27 | a million dollar well, spend someone money on your risk. Typically, |
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52:31 | never risking your dollars. Michigan pop . You're risking somebody else's dog, |
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52:38 | it's important there's nothing wrong with there's wrong with tape again someone else's. |
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52:45 | the actual risk of freshly from the state makers in judges not a danger |
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52:53 | that isn't too pessimistic. They find getting prospects for So the other reality |
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53:01 | . Well, this is how didn't a realist risk. And yet not |
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53:06 | so can. No one pays attention across one of things that we learned |
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53:13 | oldest Miss it sometimes the loudest people most convincing get their prospects through |
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53:22 | Okay, so there's no nice Officially, a zoo research managers of |
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53:31 | company. I was I was allowed go in there and tell the exploration |
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53:37 | how screwed up for my risk. I never got much trouble that but |
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53:42 | good man say, like a mask look, this process displaced $20 million |
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53:50 | that there is 100 sensor Friday. , because, you know, there |
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53:56 | Arctic artifices, so they screwed up that. Truth is, it was |
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54:00 | dioxide. They miss assess the risk way that cost the country about $50 |
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54:08 | at a time. When making your to use that, were there other |
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54:15 | your plays that work to Metarie? remember I left the company after |
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54:20 | So I did some work in the Sea off the coast of with |
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54:26 | that's all. I was pretty convinced there were sands, their social Saas |
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54:33 | , but I looked at the knew that they had grabbed fills for |
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54:37 | reasons. We decided not to go a Russian sector. That's kind of |
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54:41 | long exploration story. And a great tells of the time. I I |
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54:50 | you with all my current stories of , your life, because they tell |
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54:54 | what to really like to do But in the end, we walked |
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54:58 | that because it was gas flaring you know, one of the best |
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55:04 | reforms that were so expensive And, know, in North America, gases |
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55:09 | nothing reasons we can't explore Now this stuff you learned, patrol judge when |
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55:15 | get down first. So you gas springs only really work for domestic |
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55:21 | International because Jonathan example is is washing for the all 7 3.5 ft. |
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55:30 | need all the gas. Gas Northwest Australia. Reuters feel is one |
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55:37 | the biggest capital investment for projects sharing $60 billion gas play offshore, but |
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55:44 | they had a guarantee of China. , if you thought a trillion dollar |
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55:50 | in America unless we have allergies. exports. Basically, once you got |
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56:00 | unconventional North America drill, its way of out of this world problem. |
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56:04 | , we've got too much on gas American situation if we can't export |
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56:14 | So I'm about to troll towards Nick . So that sort of these theoretical |
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56:19 | based on a flawed diagram every post here talk. So here's an |
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56:26 | Big points that comes from a real . And before I do that, |
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56:32 | gonna in the show, okay? , but I'm getting tired. |
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56:42 | get in the way that I've been for an hour, and Maria has |
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56:47 | me that I think he is trying save electric goes whether are they Could |
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56:52 | problems. So I'm gonna take a here. This is I'm already about |
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56:56 | ways to lecture. We'll take another , Okay? And then we'll come |
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57:02 | and it's fine. 50. let's come back and find expiry. |
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57:09 | ? And then we'll finish off his once we finish the lecture will will |
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57:16 | another few minute break. Last year with exercise. I think what I'll |
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57:21 | is just asking if you have any . Have you had a scrap the |
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57:25 | ? And then we'll probably and way have little already today. If that's |
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57:31 | , or I could just stay in and you work for the exercise and |
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57:34 | questions for long. Let's take it now, have a reconvening about and |
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57:43 | say questions. We're going to come the recruiting head |
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