| 00:00 | Thank you. Present bye. What this? Do you present? There |
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| 00:18 | go. Ok, Lord, have . Makes it. Ok. I |
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| 00:25 | you guys needed a break. So just, this was all staged. |
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| 00:32 | never make mistakes. Ok? Even it seems like I did, all |
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| 00:41 | can think of is while I was to find my cursor, I hit |
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| 00:44 | button, I shouldn't have hit because cursor disappeared. Uh Let me uh |
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| 00:51 | me text Jay to make sure he . Maybe I'll call him this. |
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| 01:07 | found a cure and maybe it won't for another 45 minutes. Ok. |
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| 01:18 | . Ok. I did find a magic button by the way. So |
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| 01:23 | helps. So anyway, we're gonna about petroleum as a resource and one |
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| 01:27 | the issues that I think is really . If you're gonna go looking for |
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| 01:32 | , it's important to realize that we need oil. And um one of |
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| 01:39 | most unfortunate things about society today is uh you know, we have an |
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| 01:47 | that's built on liquid energy sources and trying to move it to batteries and |
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| 01:53 | it's a huge task. The unfortunately, the task is the, |
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| 01:59 | task is huge. There's no reason not working on it because it's |
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| 02:05 | But there is a reason that people aware that we're not working on it |
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| 02:09 | enough. We're not doing everything we to do to switch to electric cars |
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| 02:15 | . Um, we've done a lot things. Some people think that we |
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| 02:19 | done nothing in the past. There be a set of slides that I'm |
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| 02:22 | show you in here that shows that United States has been the leader in |
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| 02:27 | free uh realm longer than anybody Uh Almost everything. Uh We're either |
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| 02:37 | one or number two or we're at one. But uh 10 years |
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| 02:41 | 15 years ago, we were number and everything and it'll stun you. |
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| 02:45 | when you see what things we Number one in, in other |
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| 02:50 | who do you think was the number country uh for geothermal energy? Everybody |
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| 02:59 | Ice OK, Iceland is 100% electricity goes the fair amount of geothermal |
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| 03:08 | and, and they, they need to, you know, that that's |
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| 03:16 | our production totally in a different league . Uh I don't know what it |
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| 03:23 | when they get on the news and explain things to you. They don't |
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| 03:26 | explain them to, to you the way and it's not that they're lying |
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| 03:30 | the facts are wrong. It's the . It's the way they're looking at |
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| 03:35 | and I, and we'll, we'll to a couple of things, but |
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| 03:38 | kind of let me give you a key. We will, um, |
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| 03:41 | will consider, you know, you about an inconvenient truth and the fact |
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| 03:46 | we have climate change is an inconvenient . It's the truth, it's |
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| 03:51 | Um But see, I think even inconvenient than that is that in our |
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| 03:58 | to solve the problem, we have idea. I don't think the |
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| 04:04 | you know, I think too many are even considering and some people |
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| 04:08 | this is a massive problem. We do it, try to fix |
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| 04:12 | Well, it is a massive So we need to fix it better |
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| 04:16 | soon as possible. Any time you have obvious it's like a, |
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| 04:23 | , everybody in the United States and water heaters, you know, we |
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| 04:28 | wanted to go to contact heaters, , you know, ones where, |
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| 04:32 | know, flames right there, bits right away. You don't have a |
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| 04:36 | , it's cold and then it's instantaneous. You had to change everybody's |
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| 04:41 | water heater. That would be a undertake on a global scale. And |
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| 04:47 | the problem. This is a huge scale of a problem. And |
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| 04:52 | many of, you know, for , how many, about how many |
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| 04:56 | , millions of barrels of oil does world use every single day? I'll |
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| 05:10 | you a rough number. 100 million every day. That's a lot of |
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| 05:17 | and, uh, somebody drops off million, 3 million here. |
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| 05:22 | it's not like, you know, just don't turn your sprinklers on. |
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| 05:26 | mean, it, it's catastrophic, causes it, there's a ripple effect |
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| 05:29 | over the world and, uh, that's what part of the problem |
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| 05:34 | And, uh, and we'll get some of these other problems based on |
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| 05:38 | information and, uh, not based a perspective. Uh, a really |
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| 05:45 | thing is that the people that are , uh, alternate sources are not |
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| 05:54 | them the right way. They need do more and they need to do |
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| 05:57 | right. Not just push it, need to push it the right way |
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| 06:01 | we're not doing, we're saying things make it sound like it's not too |
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| 06:06 | . I've explained some of this in detail to one of my friends in |
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| 06:10 | wine tasting group of all things and finally got him to understand what the |
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| 06:15 | was and he was, he started cry. He says, don, |
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| 06:18 | need hope, I need hope. I said, there's not hope if |
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| 06:22 | don't understand, we don't address the and get to the solution as long |
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| 06:28 | we think we're ok by, you , putting up 10 more windmills or |
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| 06:34 | more windmills. We're not, we're touching the problem at all. We're |
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| 06:39 | , we're just sort of playing along the herd and not really doing what |
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| 06:44 | herd needs and that's what's really scares hell out of me because I know |
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| 06:51 | warming is weird. Is real. 2002, I was explaining to people |
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| 06:56 | then even in 2004 and five, was explaining, these hurricanes are gonna |
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| 06:59 | bigger because they're gonna be, there's be more energy in the ocean. |
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| 07:03 | something really obvious. Uh It, know, it doesn't take a rocket |
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| 07:07 | to understand you put more energy into ocean. You're gonna have more dra |
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| 07:12 | and drastic uh hurri uh uh clim weather events. And uh and they |
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| 07:18 | weather events, they're not, those not necessarily climate, the individually, |
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| 07:23 | climate is changing a lot of places that's where it becomes. Climate, |
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| 07:27 | is a, is a broad area . And it's also uh over a |
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| 07:33 | amount of time. I'm a paleo of sorts and uh and climate change |
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| 07:41 | a millions of year thing. We're something going on now that's almost instantaneous |
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| 07:46 | geological time and it's not a little . Ok. And, and everybody |
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| 07:55 | to be on board. And uh uh we're recording and uh that's interesting |
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| 08:02 | that in the way before earlier that up there? Was it? |
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| 08:08 | So that's actually acting the way it's to act. Ok. Uh So |
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| 08:18 | of the things that I really you'd understand is the importance of hydrocarbons |
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| 08:25 | society. And uh so we're gonna at some things what a resource is |
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| 08:30 | a reserve. Uh What peak oil , peak oil? Um, not |
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| 08:37 | long ago, back in the 19 , all the way through May of |
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| 08:44 | . Uh people were worried about peak and, and uh I'll have to |
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| 08:48 | to you and the peak oil but it's a delicate balance between demand |
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| 08:52 | production. You know, when you're oil and gas, what's happening to |
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| 08:56 | reserves, right? So completion depletion ahead of discovery. You get to |
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| 09:08 | point where you cannot continue to produce amount of energy you need. And |
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| 09:15 | peak oil is when you reach that , when your depletion rate is higher |
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| 09:20 | your new production, right? And go into these inconvenient truths as I |
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| 09:27 | . And um this is the part really upsets me. How fast are |
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| 09:32 | hydrocarbons being placed in the overall energy . So we're gonna focus on the |
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| 09:39 | States because we are still one of richest countries in the world. We |
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| 09:44 | , if anybody would have the the financial capacity to make a change |
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| 09:49 | us. And we're doing a terrible we're even produce it more than anybody |
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| 09:54 | . We're doing terrible. It's just . And uh and so we'll, |
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| 09:59 | look at where the US stands now the rest of the world in terms |
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| 10:03 | some of these things. And uh it'll give you an idea uh, |
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| 10:09 | hope everybody isn't depressed. If you about it too much you will |
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| 10:13 | But, uh, but it's, important for us to understand. There's |
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| 10:18 | reason why we're, we're going to every day and looking for oil and |
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| 10:21 | is because we don't have the energy replace it yet. And, |
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| 10:26 | uh, there are, uh, , I'll get into the details because |
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| 10:31 | a lot of, there's a lot problems with how we look at |
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| 10:36 | how we look at the information and keeps us from understanding what the real |
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| 10:41 | is. Ok. And this is uh looking at the, at that |
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| 10:49 | the beginning, we're gonna be looking the uh importance of hydrocarbons. And |
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| 10:55 | , I, I got this out something from Penn State in 2022 but |
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| 10:59 | don't know uh what the date of numbers are, but these numbers change |
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| 11:04 | a bit. Uh But what it's to show you is that out of |
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| 11:07 | barrel of oil and the world's using 100 million a day. Um This |
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| 11:16 | this much goes to half of it to gasoline and that's what we're trying |
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| 11:20 | replace with that. We're trying to uh all of that gasoline energy with |
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| 11:28 | . And we're down here in terms that, we just little tiny |
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| 11:32 | Uh I think this may be down 45%. Now, uh, if |
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| 11:36 | got a more modern one. whenever I see a graphic, it |
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| 11:40 | it look like it would be an thing to explain. Uh Just |
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| 11:44 | it doesn't always, it's not always as I would what it would |
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| 11:48 | So sometimes I won't have uh 2021 2022 or 2023 just because nobody made |
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| 11:56 | diagram and I just don't have time to go in and, and create |
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| 12:00 | my, uh, graphics on my . Uh, but anyway, you |
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| 12:04 | see that it goes to a lot things, this other products is, |
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| 12:09 | , things that include plastic. uh, this is an old picture |
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| 12:15 | , uh, National Geographic, a lot of these toys we don't |
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| 12:20 | anymore and things like that. But , it just kind of gives you |
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| 12:23 | idea of it and even the, , the siding on that house is |
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| 12:28 | to be vinyl and, uh, is from, uh, 2003, |
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| 12:32 | , 3. You know, a of people were worried, you |
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| 12:35 | we're not gonna be able to make anymore if we use up all of |
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| 12:38 | oil. And that's why the peak was a problem in 2003. Everybody |
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| 12:41 | worried about. Ok, what does take when we run out of oil |
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| 12:51 | ? When the, when the, , prices start going up? What |
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| 12:54 | it take? It takes imagination from like you and, uh, you |
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| 13:03 | new resources and new uh frontier exploration based on people not following a uh |
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| 13:09 | workflow. They're doing exactly differently from everybody else did so that they can |
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| 13:17 | to a place that no one thought was anything there and find it. |
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| 13:20 | so it's really important to, to that kind of a, I wanna |
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| 13:24 | something new attitude. Ok. So is a resource? And it's basically |
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| 13:32 | that's concentrated enough and it's not, gotta be natural occurring for it to |
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| 13:37 | a natural resource and it's gotta be concentrated enough that we can produce it |
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| 13:42 | use it and uh and actually make . Um People can't go out and |
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| 13:49 | the oil just because you need a . They have to make money. |
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| 13:54 | don't exist without income and uh and don't have jobs unless the companies make |
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| 14:00 | . Uh We can argue for years um why, why do some of |
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| 14:05 | CEO S take too much of uh comes out of the ground and not |
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| 14:10 | it up to the people that actually it for them? Uh But uh |
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| 14:13 | that is a, that's a social that should be addressed. But at |
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| 14:17 | end of the day, a resource about something that we can, uh |
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| 14:21 | naturally occurring like trees for paper. uh and we can figure out a |
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| 14:26 | to grow or produce uh this raw and make the things that we need |
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| 14:31 | to live, the lifestyles that we and lifestyles is a very important part |
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| 14:36 | this whole problem too. Um, when you take a resource and, |
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| 14:42 | I'll, I'll start, you trying to use hydrocarbons in general. |
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| 14:45 | applies to anything. Um, we ones that are discovered, we have |
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| 14:51 | that are undiscovered. Um, this be so big because we don't |
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| 15:00 | And every time somebody discovers something over , it's because they did something different |
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| 15:05 | you look at a place nobody thought look. And uh as, as |
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| 15:10 | world is now, it seems to getting smaller and smaller every day. |
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| 15:13 | we're still in places that just uh our minds uh where we start drilling |
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| 15:19 | and we figure out but little special made it happen that oil got preserved |
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| 15:26 | that's fine. You know, people something, not just a little |
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| 15:32 | the size of this room, but , you know, billions of |
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| 15:36 | even billions of barrels of it. ? Because that's what it takes. |
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| 15:44 | uh some of them are sub some are uh economic and uh the |
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| 15:50 | between economic and so really is, is sort of uh the borderline between |
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| 15:59 | technology we have works well enough that can make money if we produce |
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| 16:05 | Uh I remember uh when I, I moved to Norway, I, |
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| 16:11 | discovered um helped discover a few other . It's not one of the |
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| 16:15 | I found mine but we, please for, uh, sort of |
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| 16:28 | , um, the plan of the there. Um, you know, |
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| 16:32 | of it and gave it all the to his company at first. |
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| 16:35 | uh, offshore Denmark, uh, found a six, field that has |
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| 16:41 | million barrels of wind. Now, you found that at 4000 ft you |
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| 16:46 | take off. I think the other out. Ok. It's all |
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| 16:51 | As long as, as long as don't touch computers, that's why I'm |
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| 16:54 | here. I don't. So anyway, uh uh back when uh |
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| 17:05 | that was discovered it wasn't enough, wasn't enough to produce it. There |
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| 17:08 | no structure. And uh then what was uh well, I was gonna |
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| 17:13 | was in Texas, it was 5000. They find something that pulled |
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| 17:20 | 5000 ft. You can have all of environmental problems with people. But |
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| 17:26 | in Texas, you know, you be able to grow a decent, |
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| 17:29 | , relatively shallow into something that 60 barrels. You would be a billion |
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| 17:36 | . But over you're offshore to it's a tough environment to put a |
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| 17:41 | on. There was no infrastructure, were no pipelines to look into |
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| 17:45 | Uh Then a little bit later I went over and started working in |
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| 17:49 | and uh that was still helping. One of my friends was being able |
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| 17:54 | go uh Denmark and uh uh we do some more characterization and we were |
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| 18:00 | to uh get it to where they make money because simply because they put |
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| 18:05 | pipelines in uh to uh produce the gas in the northern part of uh |
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| 18:11 | south that had to pass through the danish waters. And it didn't allow |
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| 18:17 | to la the pipelines in the world stuff like that at the same time |
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| 18:21 | pipelines could be as expensive as all the other stuff we do combined uh |
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| 18:27 | find and produce oil pipelines are really . Ok? Because you really need |
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| 18:34 | make them so they don't leak and when they leak, you lose money |
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| 18:39 | uh and cause all kinds of Now, uh the US Geological |
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| 18:44 | uh if you don't know it, if you, you can do this |
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| 18:48 | time you're working anywhere almost in the . Sometimes they evaluate stuff in other |
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| 18:53 | . But in the United States, all sorts of things that they |
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| 18:56 | uh that no one's drilling and uh in the, in the uh the |
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| 19:02 | coastal plane offshore uh east coast, have done the number, they've done |
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| 19:09 | least five or six, really broad uh surveys of how much we should |
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| 19:14 | out there. And uh it's the gets higher and higher as we, |
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| 19:19 | we uh look at a little bit data. One of your uh examples |
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| 19:24 | frontier exploration will come from the east . OK. OK. So uh |
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| 19:33 | really important to remember though? Is , is this big pie out there |
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| 19:41 | we feed on? But reserves just where we can, we can cut |
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| 19:47 | slice of it, leave enough behind make enough money, then we can |
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| 19:51 | better use of the pot. So deserve our special subset of uh total |
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| 19:58 | , resources out there. Uh If price of oil goes up all of |
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| 20:02 | sudden economic, let me go back this thing. Every time the price |
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| 20:12 | oil goes up, this line goes . Ok. But it doesn't go |
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| 20:18 | really fast because if the price of goes up, all service companies charge |
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| 20:23 | money to uh to uh to provide services because they realized there's a, |
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| 20:29 | know, there's more value in what doing and they wanna get a share |
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| 20:33 | and uh and so this line doesn't down that fast. But one of |
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| 20:37 | reasons why we have cycles because probably a lot of resources, there's a |
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| 20:46 | of volume and there's more production in price of. And then when the |
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| 20:50 | goes down and we lay everybody uh it becomes harder and harder to |
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| 20:55 | that 100 million barrels a day during , it was down to 80 million |
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| 21:00 | . And uh that was a great for the climate. But uh in |
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| 21:04 | price, uh you know, for in the pump, but it, |
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| 21:08 | didn't help the oil companies when, , when there wasn't a huge demand |
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| 21:14 | , uh, and it made the go down when the price goes |
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| 21:19 | this line goes up. Ok. , uh, again, that's what |
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| 21:31 | is. And, uh, here not gonna read all of this |
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| 21:33 | But, uh, but I think important you need, but you need |
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| 21:37 | read these slides, uh, get and make sure you read them. |
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| 21:41 | uh we have uh a total amount reserves and basically we will list them |
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| 21:52 | as proven and probable. And some some of us also was possible. |
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| 21:57 | I know when I was a we did all three and it was |
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| 22:01 | a percentage chance of uh survival. This usually uh if we knew where |
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| 22:07 | uh oil water contact was and we a good, uh a good characterization |
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| 22:11 | the reservoir. In other words, was a, it was a pretty |
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| 22:14 | reservoir. Uh It was easy to out what was true and what was |
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| 22:20 | if, uh in that case, maybe if we had a fault block |
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| 22:24 | to it and it looked like it the same situation to have same |
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| 22:28 | but we didn't have a well in , that fault block, that would |
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| 22:32 | the OK. And uh now when was working in South Marsh Island 1 |
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| 22:39 | we had wells uh, that were of oil and we didn't know where |
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| 22:44 | water was so we didn't know the or where. And, uh, |
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| 22:49 | stuff that was extended below, that depth, the lowest occurring, |
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| 22:55 | , oil, uh, would be in the stuff. And how far |
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| 22:59 | thought the oil water contact might might have been in, in the |
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| 23:03 | of South Marshal and 1 28. , I thought there were a lot |
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| 23:09 | stratigraphic traps turns out were in fact I was able to show we were |
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| 23:13 | to drill more and get more which was one of the reasons why |
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| 23:16 | was very successful with that with that . Uh Is that in way before |
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| 23:23 | turn of the century, we uh were producing some traps in South, |
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| 23:31 | don't remember exact year I tried to for, it must have run away |
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| 23:35 | somewhere around 2002, uh A BG cover of a PGA, a business |
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| 23:44 | covering photographic traps in um in South , one came in. First thing |
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| 23:50 | did was really, then it went your, maybe you guys figured this |
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| 23:57 | . We were doing this back in , but we were doing this back |
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| 24:01 | time ago with geology. And uh I don't point that out to um |
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| 24:08 | criticize geophysics. I'm trying to let know that there is, there is |
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| 24:13 | contribution we have to make in the to help the geophysicists and they certainly |
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| 24:19 | a huge contribution to help us uh oil and gas. Tell ma |
|
| 24:30 | those are probability of success and, a lot of times that is uh |
|
| 24:34 | to what you think, the the whole uh rate is gonna |
|
| 24:39 | And of course, um, you , you might say you're too fit |
|
| 24:43 | um you know, any, anything well. P 90 would be. |
|
| 24:50 | depends on the company. But, , and that's what research are usually |
|
| 24:54 | how they really actually classify this because company has its own set of rules |
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| 24:59 | how to do it. And uh they're a smart company, they will |
|
| 25:02 | a different set of different areas. know, we haven't talked about players |
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| 25:07 | , but in different players, you expect to get certain kinds of recovers |
|
| 25:12 | uh that recovery factor uh can have lot to do with, with these |
|
| 25:18 | . And ultimately what you decide as whole resume football, football reserves uh |
|
| 25:23 | very strict uh issue with the engineers even some of the economist uh because |
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| 25:29 | have to be really care. I tell you that uh when I was |
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| 25:35 | on South Marshall in 1 28 uh proven reserves for this and I was |
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| 25:44 | to reevaluate it and I took all shale cars out as you know, |
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| 25:49 | were doing gross sand instead of net to calculate the reserves in other |
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| 25:55 | about 300 ft of sand because the engineer, that was a 300 ft |
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| 26:00 | six container with 26% rust if they . So, then we remove a |
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| 26:09 | of the, the. And so , I went my boss and a |
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| 26:15 | other people. How do you deal this? How do you do |
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| 26:18 | Right. Because that's what I'm being to it. They told me how |
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| 26:21 | do, uh, it wasn't using , it was using your eye and |
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| 26:25 | at the lot uh characteristics and and I reduced uh this huge uh |
|
| 26:33 | Marshal 2028 reservoir by about 25%. , uh you can put in the |
|
| 26:45 | . Two days later, the federal said Mobile is converting old oil into |
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| 26:50 | new oil so they can charge higher for. It was back when we |
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| 26:54 | a tiered system that new oil was more than he could sell new oil |
|
| 26:58 | more than the oil oil. And , uh then two days later, |
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| 27:03 | president of Oil Corporation down the New and went to talk to the guy |
|
| 27:10 | took away 25% of the reserves in . And so, um, I'm |
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| 27:17 | sure I'm not sure, but I'm than I was younger than most of |
|
| 27:20 | people just have. Oh, and , and uh, and so they |
|
| 27:30 | and uh had this big discussion and course they had so, yeah, |
|
| 27:40 | . So we could do that. , uh, so, um, |
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| 27:48 | a long story short, we got at the Federal government for a thinking |
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| 27:54 | his blessing. And so I got , I got a really strong paddle |
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| 27:59 | for that. Not only did I my neck out, but it |
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| 28:02 | but it was more products. uh, so that was a |
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| 28:07 | a lucky step for me. And , then I proceeded to uh to |
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| 28:12 | find Strat graphic drafts for him, was a very good thing too. |
|
| 28:20 | OK, that's a good question. it's, it's about the definition of |
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| 28:24 | really. Uh probable means. It's and possible means that and that's exactly |
|
| 28:34 | it is and that's what you come with and uh but drill a |
|
| 28:41 | this possible could turn into an improvement or it could be a investor. |
|
| 28:48 | When you say probable uh for uh child, I sorry, |
|
| 29:07 | you won't be able to see what drawing on the board, but I'll |
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| 29:10 | to speak up. Do you think can move um the camera? I |
|
| 29:19 | know why but chalk is very So I have a special. Mhm |
|
| 29:27 | might be an easy thing. Hm water contact is down here maybe because |
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| 29:40 | pressure data or something. Uh You a reason to think that down |
|
| 29:45 | So this would be the bottom of residue in your oil tank. It |
|
| 29:51 | there's a fault here. And so oil column is actually this time and |
|
| 30:01 | there's oh, straight before you Thanks. Ok, so you, |
|
| 30:14 | you have a well in here and know, you wanna make all of |
|
| 30:18 | proven except um you only know there's down here, so you don't know |
|
| 30:24 | well pollen here. Another thing that might be able to do is based |
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| 30:29 | the, the seal and the type of ceiling that you have here in |
|
| 30:34 | , you may be able to calculate far down that will be. Then |
|
| 30:40 | can go, you know, based the strength of our down here, |
|
| 30:45 | don't have any pro so the prove in this case would be here. |
|
| 30:51 | , this one. Oh now down , there may be a trap. |
|
| 31:01 | have a pitch dog saying, so shale in here. And so you |
|
| 31:08 | this whole thing. So if you're to well some, some, |
|
| 31:11 | some miles where other places you might the river, other word is missing |
|
| 31:19 | of the, the physical strategy And uh and if you have reason |
|
| 31:25 | think that some of that might be this will call, that might be |
|
| 31:32 | , but it has to be, has to share what they have to |
|
| 31:35 | that was for the Charter. You , you might find the traps right |
|
| 31:40 | there on the trap over here, I'm close to that reservoir. But |
|
| 31:44 | no oil in it. And more , it's not, it's not at |
|
| 31:49 | right depth to line up with OK. So it's not interconnected to |
|
| 31:54 | a completely different reservoir. So at point, it's possible because it has |
|
| 32:02 | , I had some that were 300 thick with 26% ferocity. And |
|
| 32:06 | they were boomers and uh seismic couldn't it. But if you, you |
|
| 32:13 | how to pick false and pinch outs uh in a correlation log correlations, |
|
| 32:19 | , you can uh you can figure kinds of things out and you'll have |
|
| 32:23 | , an example like that. Yeah. Yeah, I'm gonna, |
|
| 32:31 | gonna give you some of the worst in the world, not the |
|
| 32:34 | the worst. They're the ones I on in my dissertation. But the |
|
| 32:39 | but they're uh they're from a onshore in Texas just yes. Uh The |
|
| 32:51 | response is very, let me for . This looks really stretched out, |
|
| 32:59 | it still works. Um This is the resource py pyramid. And basically |
|
| 33:06 | kind of shown you there's a little area but here's unrecoverable. It's in |
|
| 33:12 | . It is technically recoverable. In words, we might be able to |
|
| 33:16 | that heat, but it would cost much and this is we can drill |
|
| 33:20 | deep and still make money, that of thing. Uh uh Or uh |
|
| 33:27 | could be there's a pipeline here and not a pipeline that. And because |
|
| 33:33 | not a pipeline here to put an or whatever, it's kind of floating |
|
| 33:38 | there to uh to produce, it be too much. Of course, |
|
| 33:42 | things have actually uh was floating, ships have uh made it possible, |
|
| 33:49 | course, to produce oil in places are very remote without circumvent uh these |
|
| 33:58 | that are technically recoverable, but they financially. And so here's the economically |
|
| 34:05 | recoverable resource. And then, then have to actually do it, you |
|
| 34:11 | to find them. And here it proved and probable reserves. A lot |
|
| 34:16 | people aren't gonna put the possible. I said, I did this because |
|
| 34:20 | would have found this impossible. uh, it's a, um, |
|
| 34:27 | , it was really a lot of and every Monday we would, |
|
| 34:30 | we would have the whole department get and go over the wells, we |
|
| 34:34 | down last week. Anyone that yes. So you're up at three |
|
| 34:40 | in the morning on Saturday and, , and you get to come in |
|
| 34:45 | show them what, you know, ft of 300 ft. And, |
|
| 34:50 | , and I got to do that to people that were showing their, |
|
| 34:54 | , it's a dry hole. It's dry hole. So I, I |
|
| 34:59 | a little bit of luck. How is that for the drunk driver? |
|
| 35:07 | ? Oh, it depends on the . Depends on the company and it |
|
| 35:10 | on how, how much of an it was if there are, you |
|
| 35:13 | , like million, $2 million you know, that are on shore |
|
| 35:17 | , that aren't very deep and stuff that. It's not, it's not |
|
| 35:20 | bad. Uh, and, you , most of them are gonna be |
|
| 35:24 | million now and stuff like that or 10, it's like, um, |
|
| 35:29 | guy was trying to get me to into a $10 million. Well, |
|
| 35:33 | , um, the, uh, know, that same, well, |
|
| 35:38 | would have been when I, when started it would have been a million |
|
| 35:41 | . Well, or even less. , the, the thing is, |
|
| 35:45 | that if you're at the upper like closer to frontier when you do |
|
| 35:53 | , you know, we know less it. Uh, it can be |
|
| 35:56 | really risk again. Um, the water took off, um, around |
|
| 36:03 | turn of the century. And, , when, at one point in |
|
| 36:08 | their name was in search, I remember what their last, the last |
|
| 36:11 | of this oil company was, but was a, a fairly good |
|
| 36:15 | independent and they put all their money two deep water. Deep water was |
|
| 36:21 | word, you know, it's like would come up to me, come |
|
| 36:25 | my office and say doctor, I , um, work on a deep |
|
| 36:30 | and I go, put, put water, just the deep water and |
|
| 36:33 | go, well, well, what you what, uh, offshore |
|
| 36:40 | Trinidad with deep water, just deep and, you know, they, |
|
| 36:45 | everybody heard deep water. So we doing a lot of deep water stuff |
|
| 36:49 | , uh, the deep water, know, they, they got past |
|
| 36:52 | , the shelf break and they they were drilling a lot of stuff |
|
| 36:54 | the slope and mini basins and stuff that at the time. And, |
|
| 36:59 | , but uh, the management of company thought, you know, we |
|
| 37:03 | need to get into deep water. they put, they put $60 million |
|
| 37:08 | into, they got 50% of 2 million wells, $60 million for the |
|
| 37:13 | . They lost $60 million because they both. And there's a lot of |
|
| 37:18 | there. And uh uh when when I uh teach applied biography, |
|
| 37:23 | says shows some people why it was complicated. But uh you won't, |
|
| 37:27 | won't get that example in this But anyway, um but that's uh |
|
| 37:34 | , it depends on how, how of a risk you have. And |
|
| 37:38 | large oil companies can go for bigger because they have bigger infrastructure, uh |
|
| 37:45 | income, you know, they have buffer. Uh When I was working |
|
| 37:49 | Amico, we just received $6 billion uh from uh Iran for the settlement |
|
| 37:55 | them, taking our land from And so we had a lot of |
|
| 37:57 | to play with and that made that little bit easier but, uh, |
|
| 38:02 | companies don't have that kind of Ok. Um, ok. |
|
| 38:12 | uh, next thing we're gonna, see, we talked about how do |
|
| 38:15 | get it? We're looking at resources reserves and, uh, now we're |
|
| 38:18 | look about peak oil and peak oil that balance? And, um, |
|
| 38:27 | , um, it's a, it's really tricky, uh I think because |
|
| 38:33 | relate to, you know, the demand or the whole country, what |
|
| 38:38 | gonna show you is an example of United States because that's where it |
|
| 38:41 | you know, we were the biggest and one of the biggest producers, |
|
| 38:44 | not at that point in time, we were, we were using more |
|
| 38:47 | we produce. So we were susceptible people. So it's a pretty good |
|
| 38:52 | but the whole world at any point time, uh things could change and |
|
| 38:56 | could be there again. It's just the way things look right now, |
|
| 39:01 | almost looks like peak peak uh su is, is uh well, |
|
| 39:10 | the chances of us getting to peak right now is uh very low because |
|
| 39:16 | got a pretty good supply going right . And uh somebody named Hubert and |
|
| 39:26 | happens happens to have been English decided call this peak oil when you get |
|
| 39:30 | that point where there's an imbalance where you're uh completing more than people |
|
| 39:35 | they add to the reserves. And but in spite of that, |
|
| 39:41 | in 18 57 I liked this Uh, I have this, I |
|
| 39:46 | this chart, um, from that and, and it goes on for |
|
| 39:50 | more pages but I only show one to give you a flavor of |
|
| 39:54 | But, uh, Romania was uh, first place where they |
|
| 39:58 | uh, producing oil. Well, later they, they did it, |
|
| 40:04 | , a couple of years later we it in Pennsylvania. But my |
|
| 40:09 | my mother's family grew up in Pennsylvania I grew up in the United |
|
| 40:13 | We never heard about Romania though, , the first economic ever built |
|
| 40:18 | was in Pennsylvania when I was. , that's, you know, we |
|
| 40:23 | always see the whole picture. we think we see it but we |
|
| 40:28 | . And uh and here it says commercial oil production, Canada and uh |
|
| 40:34 | came in. Not, not long that. In other words, people |
|
| 40:37 | finding more and more things to do it. We were killing off all |
|
| 40:41 | whales, uh which is where most our whales were coming from uh before |
|
| 40:46 | and uh realizing that we need to so. Uh But here is the |
|
| 40:52 | us Geological Survey was formed in part the fear of oil shortages. |
|
| 40:58 | so people knew what the concept of oil was. We just didn't have |
|
| 41:02 | nice name for it. In uh 82 engineers estimated there's only 95 million |
|
| 41:09 | of oil remained and, uh, producing 25 in a year. That |
|
| 41:14 | we're gonna hit peak oil in four . That was true. We |
|
| 41:20 | uh, if you're not replacing you're already at that point. |
|
| 41:25 | and then all of a sudden in 01, someone drilled, this is |
|
| 41:28 | we started realizing that we could drill lot of the earlier wells were drilled |
|
| 41:32 | we had seats of oil coming And uh but then they figured out |
|
| 41:38 | gonna go look for a, you , and any client that any client |
|
| 41:43 | gonna be um where we uh where grow because obviously, um in the |
|
| 41:53 | , the Gulf coast of have yeah, those things can cause structural |
|
| 42:24 | and there's layers above this and there be pockets of oil right here and |
|
| 42:32 | a trap. And uh and this a very simple one. Some people |
|
| 42:38 | look for these clients and, you , um Pierce junction you can see |
|
| 42:42 | just in the south of here. uh when it's uh you know, |
|
| 42:49 | if you get up while they get one of the high rise sound, |
|
| 42:53 | can see it, it's there, the name of it. But um |
|
| 43:01 | , and you know, if you along and I think, you |
|
| 43:04 | 2.5 ft above sea level than this all of a sudden it was |
|
| 43:09 | you know, put that put the , push it up. And |
|
| 43:15 | uh so right around this point in , that was the name of the |
|
| 43:21 | , was to find all these things build them. Uh Many years later |
|
| 43:27 | , in the uh probably the eighties the nineties of uh 19 eighties, |
|
| 43:31 | nineties and some of the places, of the uh for us in uh |
|
| 43:40 | around uh Indonesia, Papua, New and places like that, they would |
|
| 43:44 | these stones and they, they were to do it. Uh The Vietnam |
|
| 43:49 | helicopter pilots would go in there and and they'd see these things and uh |
|
| 43:54 | were, they were retired at the , of course, but they would |
|
| 43:57 | these little, the trees were all like somebody cut it uh like a |
|
| 44:03 | marsh, you know, the, grass grows in a certain height but |
|
| 44:06 | was sticking up for something structural, up and all the trees would |
|
| 44:11 | you know, almost that is for and that was how they first started |
|
| 44:17 | itself and some of the areas that the places like that. But uh |
|
| 44:24 | lot later than this. But uh they would come in and ground here |
|
| 44:28 | of course, the big oil companies try to buy up on that |
|
| 44:32 | And uh as it turns out how people know who founded this university, |
|
| 44:37 | big contributions. You I say, know, the old people, you |
|
| 44:53 | , but I'm just guessing anyway, , like not to be real. |
|
| 45:00 | , so, um, oh, . Well, that, that |
|
| 45:06 | that would have. Absolutely. So , this was the Mob. So |
|
| 45:13 | Johnson just down the street, while they all can be on this |
|
| 45:20 | . And, um, Roy uh his land man, so the |
|
| 45:27 | companies just bought on the land. , he said, well, what |
|
| 45:31 | the land next to it? what's really cheap? He said, |
|
| 45:34 | , go ahead and buy it. cheap. And so he bought all |
|
| 45:38 | land way up in here on this , south east west for the |
|
| 45:48 | Turns out all of this is, , all down here. Look at |
|
| 46:05 | for the club. Oh, what contact around it? What does |
|
| 46:16 | look like? It's like a It's called the donut. And he |
|
| 46:21 | the donut and, uh, for little bit like that anyway, |
|
| 46:34 | the Collins became one of the richest in the kind of not just ok |
|
| 46:43 | that. Oh, it would it would have been, um, |
|
| 46:50 | would have been there. I think was there at this stage. I |
|
| 46:54 | , I think it was in uh, maybe the forties, thirties |
|
| 47:00 | forties. I, it, it have been too, too long before |
|
| 47:04 | I'm pretty sure he was still alive he, um, when you donate |
|
| 47:09 | lot of money to U of well, let's see, that would |
|
| 47:13 | been actually not. Yeah, it have been. Right. Right after |
|
| 47:17 | 19, because, uh, he donating money for sort of like a |
|
| 47:23 | college in 1927. And then it actually called University of Houston in |
|
| 47:28 | And he donated money before that and, um, and when, |
|
| 47:36 | , um, when they started, know, building this university they, |
|
| 47:42 | I went to school here and way , uh the school, the, |
|
| 47:48 | original origin, original date of UFH considered 1934. But then they |
|
| 47:55 | you know, it'll make us solder we go back to 1927 when they |
|
| 47:59 | started to build it. And it called the University of Houston, but |
|
| 48:02 | became the University of Houston and it also a private school at first, |
|
| 48:06 | think. Ok, so here's kind what peak, peak oil looks like |
|
| 48:16 | the United States. And uh maybe we get through this, we'll take |
|
| 48:22 | bigger break since we've been in here for about two hours and I haven't |
|
| 48:28 | a chance to take a real But uh here you can see, |
|
| 48:35 | here's what we were producing and here's of what the predict prediction was and |
|
| 48:43 | uh for where we drop off, , here's the total us production |
|
| 48:49 | They're looking at uh some of the 48 stuff and uh here's how it |
|
| 48:55 | down here. Uh As we were into 2000 and of course, we |
|
| 48:59 | getting more and more wealth from the East. So there was, you |
|
| 49:03 | , at that point in time, did say the United States you could |
|
| 49:06 | oil that you would have to get from somebody else. And, |
|
| 49:10 | and that was pretty obvious and that's of the reason why the prices of |
|
| 49:14 | went up this period of time. , um, yeah, when I |
|
| 49:22 | working about, at this point in would I guess about how much a |
|
| 49:27 | it will cost $4. Yeah, , uh, from here to here |
|
| 49:43 | went to, uh, it went , from that number to somewhere around |
|
| 49:48 | a month, something like that. then around here somewhere we went up |
|
| 49:52 | , you know, started to get post, of course, you |
|
| 49:57 | recently it's been over that and and of course, uh, before |
|
| 50:01 | , the price of oil dropped uh oil dropped so much around the |
|
| 50:05 | 2000 that, uh, we're gonna it off the lot pieces, the |
|
| 50:16 | . But again, that's just because lot of, a lot of geology |
|
| 50:21 | into trying to fix this problem. so the geologists, all the big |
|
| 50:25 | companies in the United States started going and they started finding oil and basically |
|
| 50:31 | do a good job. So, , if he catch me at a |
|
| 50:37 | , you hear me talking to somebody say, what do you do? |
|
| 50:40 | said, well, I teach a of verses once. It sound like |
|
| 50:44 | said, well, the price is little high. The price of oil |
|
| 50:53 | low to make sure they get the . And, uh, so that's |
|
| 51:01 | , uh, did I see that ? I think it said that the |
|
| 51:06 | of oil is low. It means have too much, the wrong |
|
| 51:13 | It's bye. Yeah. Now I the right thing. Ok, get |
|
| 51:25 | and 80 degrees. I need, need to get a break. So |
|
| 51:29 | the price of oil is up. , you know, I know that |
|
| 51:34 | , we're getting to the point of . So I tell people and |
|
| 51:41 | it's just a joke. It's all them a lot of face. So |
|
| 51:44 | start finding oil price, they keep the last and um, and then |
|
| 51:52 | it gets slow, I know we to get it back up. We |
|
| 51:55 | to fund, we're so interested. talk about how the prediction on like |
|
| 52:02 | far is. Yeah, I I'm get to that but I'm, I'm |
|
| 52:11 | showing you this because this is where United States kind of reached peak oil |
|
| 52:15 | we went out and got other stuff um, but um, here's what |
|
| 52:23 | happened. Um, it was coming like this, it looked like we |
|
| 52:30 | people. Well, and um uh we were getting down here, we |
|
| 52:37 | starting to discover new fields in uh billion barrel fields in Brazil. We |
|
| 52:41 | finding new field in South Africa, Africa, West Africa. We were |
|
| 52:47 | uh new oil fields, uh subs and uh and uh under and in |
|
| 52:54 | of the salt uh down on the . So offshore, we were doing |
|
| 52:58 | lot of stuff and so we were a lot of oil. So in |
|
| 53:03 | , right at this point, I asked, am I worried about this |
|
| 53:06 | oil? And I said no, I gave him a whole bunch of |
|
| 53:10 | and ho uh BBC S horizon, like nation in the United States. |
|
| 53:16 | , and I, and uh so , they didn't want to interview me |
|
| 53:19 | uh they put me on V because wanted me to tell them that this |
|
| 53:23 | gonna happen and I told him it's not gonna happen. And then |
|
| 53:27 | it started taking off, you can't the whole thing, but it started |
|
| 53:30 | off because of those discoveries. And of course, by about 2012 Olympic |
|
| 53:36 | changed the whole world in terms of . And you're talking about risk and |
|
| 53:40 | that. One of the reasons why uh became very uh favor a lot |
|
| 53:47 | what is because he almost never The problem is the drum because each |
|
| 53:55 | produces only so much oil. And then it's, and uh the uh |
|
| 54:01 | production curve on a unconventional will is short compared to that eventually. And |
|
| 54:12 | the risk is low, the report slow. We have to be drilling |
|
| 54:17 | drilling. So we spend a lot money to get a little, but |
|
| 54:21 | never lose $60 million a time. uh so uh somebody that understands how |
|
| 54:28 | deal with risk and cope with risk has the cash cash to do |
|
| 54:34 | You know, it's, it's like stock market, you can go out |
|
| 54:37 | dump some money in 10 shares. of them can be losers if one |
|
| 54:41 | them, if one of them is an intel or one of them is |
|
| 54:45 | avid, uh, it doesn't matter the other one is lost. |
|
| 54:52 | So it, it takes in in the oil industry, it takes |
|
| 54:56 | that is, is not risk, management that understands how to, how |
|
| 55:01 | cope with and deal with. In words, you still don't put all |
|
| 55:04 | aid in the work place because like example I gave you was socks, |
|
| 55:09 | know, you, you drill 10 . Um, they all have a |
|
| 55:13 | price rate on. That's probably one them is, that's how I discovered |
|
| 55:22 | . Uh When I was working at Amico ended up throwing in the towel |
|
| 55:26 | the, the CEO we had at time did not understand was, and |
|
| 55:30 | came up with a and they call a prospect falling to the, the |
|
| 55:38 | quality team in it, save it wouldn't actually destroy it. That's everything |
|
| 55:43 | we've looked at a probability of success around 20 just, you know, |
|
| 55:50 | was, I, I need a oil company. Uh So if you |
|
| 55:57 | one of the examples, I'll show was one where we found $2 million |
|
| 56:00 | will. If that prospect, quality had been in place when, when |
|
| 56:05 | uh prospect came up, we would do it. It was the biggest |
|
| 56:09 | in the South China Sea then and now to then. OK. So |
|
| 56:15 | here is uh showing you more of a global scale what they think peak |
|
| 56:20 | is gonna be and uh they think gonna reach it somewhere around. Uh |
|
| 56:27 | had it written on here somewhere but was around 2022 or something like |
|
| 56:31 | We've already, we've already hit but we haven't hit people because we |
|
| 56:34 | finding more of it. Um Technology getting better than geophysics getting, getting |
|
| 56:39 | it. And uh and our workloads even even if they're, even if |
|
| 56:45 | the middle sometimes. Uh But uh always, and there's, and there's |
|
| 56:50 | these companies like work. Now, people are looking for big prizes, |
|
| 56:55 | give them a lot of in place technical work. And Bill Corp has |
|
| 57:03 | lots and lots of money on a scale. Um But still the CEO |
|
| 57:09 | , is one we interested in Texas a, still a good thing to |
|
| 57:16 | through the uh through this course, might hear him say a lot about |
|
| 57:19 | Corp. Does anybody here work for ? That's a shame. We, |
|
| 57:23 | used to have somebody from Hill Corp every uh every group. Maybe it'll |
|
| 57:27 | again. Ok. So why was ? Well, there was a big |
|
| 57:35 | in demand in uh 28 20 29 because of the economic slump. |
|
| 57:41 | There's been uh in several places including and other parts of the world, |
|
| 57:46 | Europe. Now. Uh there's been economic growth and COVID uh uh from |
|
| 57:53 | to 2022. Uh then a man 20 million girls. And that's, |
|
| 57:58 | a lot of, that's a whole of work. And um here is |
|
| 58:07 | slide is getting to be a little older but with Brazil offshore West |
|
| 58:12 | the Deepwater offshore us. Um probably in here realizes that Obama, the |
|
| 58:21 | approved offshore drilling offshore Virginia Beach, , where I grew up and really |
|
| 58:29 | uh unfortunately, an oil company, here work an oil company see that |
|
| 58:40 | lost 11 lives. They made, made 11 short things. Uh you |
|
| 58:47 | , we have in the oil we have safety duplicity kind of 11 |
|
| 58:54 | . It's almost a given that the is and uh it is a |
|
| 59:04 | they did, it was merged, did, they, in fact, |
|
| 59:10 | they merged had uh, a $2 surplus in his retirement. So, |
|
| 59:19 | like me and, uh, you , I know, well, |
|
| 59:27 | he should have been. But, , we also like the B |
|
| 59:32 | which was, I said this but , but, uh, but we |
|
| 59:41 | a $2 million certain that you can't surplus. But if you work with |
|
| 59:48 | company you're allowed to, uh, , here's a piece of a piece |
|
| 59:59 | that. I think that really, the uh the guy that uh was |
|
| 60:04 | CEO of, I don't know whether actually call it a group commander in |
|
| 60:10 | and Royal of Goddess, uh something that. But um uh he actually |
|
| 60:16 | um is we will realize in $2 surplus and the people in the New |
|
| 60:26 | are um but uh what they did they, they laid off a lot |
|
| 60:33 | people uh before they could get retirement they could keep that, that $2 |
|
| 60:39 | . I was 11 months shy. , is arguably one of the best |
|
| 60:47 | that ever they teach us. Uh , what uh he uh he was |
|
| 60:54 | year in a month. I, could almost understand them getting rid of |
|
| 61:01 | because I was being cranky by But uh but I, I |
|
| 61:05 | Kurt Barker was one of the people developed the 3d seismic cube and uh |
|
| 61:11 | seismic wasn't what it is today until developed some of that technology and got |
|
| 61:16 | patented. OK. So let's take um real quick. Uh How, |
|
| 61:27 | ? OK. I'm uh yeah, me finish this chart. This uh |
|
| 61:32 | Eagle for all of these are Uh And, and I forgot to |
|
| 61:40 | just in the last couple of Um Guyana and cum on the northern |
|
| 61:45 | of uh South America has just opened billions and billions of barrels of |
|
| 61:51 | Uh They had uh a lot uh, what you would call disappointing |
|
| 61:58 | over the last 15 years. You , they're like, you know, |
|
| 62:01 | drilling but we're not finding anything and hit a necessary target, huge fan |
|
| 62:09 | charged from a regional source rock. , a classic play that anybody would |
|
| 62:15 | miss, but they kept missing it in the wrong place. Somebody finally |
|
| 62:21 | the right place and then they built the right place. They look for |
|
| 62:24 | rocks at that same age all up down that coast line and it's charter |
|
| 62:30 | full of, uh, of It's huge. I've heard it said |
|
| 62:36 | , that this area right here, gonna be worth more than, |
|
| 62:41 | um, all of this and all this put together and that's a lot |
|
| 62:46 | , that's a lot of us I'm, I'm saying, yeah, |
|
| 63:03 | know. It's, it's, it's but, you know, it's, |
|
| 63:07 | like the, it's like the you know, once, once you |
|
| 63:10 | the pattern and the, the the world is your, is your |
|
| 63:18 | ? And, uh, and that's what's happening down here. It's just |
|
| 63:22 | . And, uh, and now that didn't get into it is trying |
|
| 63:25 | get into it. And the the big companies that were, |
|
| 63:29 | brave enough and wealthy enough to, , to keep trying to actually found |
|
| 63:37 | . Ok? And, uh, may get an online student at some |
|
| 63:40 | in time from, sir, and more than one or two because they've |
|
| 63:45 | , uh, calling and asking about dude. Ok, we'll take a |
|
| 63:51 | here. I'm gonna take, a 20 minute break just because it's |
|
| 63:56 | quite a while and I didn't get break when you guys got a |
|
| 64:17 | Hello, Tess. Are you Yeah. Yeah, I went |
|
| 64:21 | uh, stirred up the, the people in the, uh, |
|
| 64:26 | office and, uh, asked them find out why you haven't been, |
|
| 64:29 | , registered yet but it should be . Ok. Good. Yeah, |
|
| 64:35 | , I'm starting to get worried about . I, I am myself, |
|
| 64:38 | just, so we keep the university to make rules to make it hard |
|
| 64:43 | do things. Yeah. Anyway, get back to this. So |
|
| 64:51 | um, oh, that's just exactly I need right now. Problem is |
|
| 65:04 | can't see it. Yeah, it . Why is it on that |
|
| 65:31 | Yeah. Uh, I'm glad I a new computer. Let's see. |
|
| 65:42 | , here we go. And, , anyway, we, um, |
|
| 65:44 | gonna have to try to sit down because, uh I have bad knees |
|
| 65:49 | my knee is really killing me. I do like to get up and |
|
| 65:53 | animated. But uh so when we to this, this slide and we're |
|
| 66:01 | here and we were kind of talking this uh earlier and one of one |
|
| 66:06 | the issues, they're low risk that problem with unconventional is the drawdown is |
|
| 66:11 | quick. And uh I made a of uh figuring out what the percent |
|
| 66:18 | over here. So about after about year, 60% 69% of the production |
|
| 66:23 | gone. And uh uh and then uh water cut gets really high. |
|
| 66:32 | here's, here's another deal uh before had unconventional wells, if wells were |
|
| 66:40 | something around 50% water cut, in words, it was half water, |
|
| 66:44 | oil. Uh they would shut the in and uh let the reservoir start |
|
| 66:49 | charge back up with unconventional. It work that way. Unconventional. The |
|
| 66:54 | comes with water, it doesn't come water, it doesn't flow very |
|
| 66:59 | The water is part of what creates some of the, the temporary porosity |
|
| 67:05 | in, in the uh system. uh a lot of the wells will |
|
| 67:09 | out with 50% a water cut. uh as they produce it along this |
|
| 67:17 | , that water cut keeps going up up and up and up and what |
|
| 67:21 | means is you have to keep disposing more and more wastewater. And uh |
|
| 67:26 | of the technological things that all the are working on now is ways to |
|
| 67:30 | that water recycle it, clean Uh it used to be considered too |
|
| 67:35 | , but it's just what we just have millions of barrels of water uh |
|
| 67:40 | , to uh fresh water to pull of an aquifer and have, have |
|
| 67:45 | water for the people in agriculture and that kind of thing. So, |
|
| 67:50 | uh that technology may get to the where they're self sustaining and, and |
|
| 67:54 | if they do that would be but it's, it's gonna take a |
|
| 67:57 | of cost right now. Um A of the injection wells require 12 $12 |
|
| 68:03 | barrel uh to inject wastewater. Some it could be, it could be |
|
| 68:08 | higher. So that adds another cost the production of that oil that's ever |
|
| 68:14 | . OK. Here is um uh of the projections on peak oil |
|
| 68:22 | And uh here you can see obviously isn't gonna happen and you can see |
|
| 68:30 | this started going back up. So the curve kind of goes kind of |
|
| 68:35 | that, that uh period of almost like a straight curve when you |
|
| 68:42 | , smooth your averages out. Um uh here you can see, oh |
|
| 68:50 | not on the right slide. I have two slides in front of |
|
| 68:54 | some. So here, you can this is kind of where, you |
|
| 68:57 | , we had that little dip smoothed . It doesn't look so bad. |
|
| 69:01 | here, uh, you know, a tighter scale, but, |
|
| 69:05 | then if you um project it in future, this is what folks think's |
|
| 69:09 | happen. This was BP in And, um, I haven't changed |
|
| 69:16 | . Um, one of the, of the things I do like about |
|
| 69:20 | is they have a really good um every year. And uh the 2017 |
|
| 69:26 | would have come out in 2018 or because it takes a while for them |
|
| 69:29 | get the data. Then it, takes a while from the report. |
|
| 69:33 | uh so you can't always get the stuff, but here you can see |
|
| 69:36 | it doesn't look like peak oil is in the near future. And um |
|
| 69:44 | peak demand is really, is really issue. Um If the demand goes |
|
| 69:51 | , then the production can come down it doesn't happen. And uh you |
|
| 69:57 | barely see uh what happened here in . You can see the curve kind |
|
| 70:02 | came down a little bit, but global demand dropped. And again, |
|
| 70:05 | is not the US curve, this the world curve. So uh it's |
|
| 70:14 | something we have to worry about right and uh which is, which is |
|
| 70:19 | good thing. And uh it's also you know, if, if the |
|
| 70:27 | energy sources start doing a better job replacing some of this. Then, |
|
| 70:31 | that will leave uh leave pressure, reduce pressure on uh the possibility of |
|
| 70:37 | demand. And uh here we Um these predictions came out in January |
|
| 70:48 | . I thought there would be something or usually there's something around June. |
|
| 70:50 | couldn't find anything in June or I have popped it up here. I |
|
| 70:53 | this ready for my class in the and um but I haven't seen anything |
|
| 70:59 | recently on projections, but I I think they're kind of going OK |
|
| 71:04 | . You can see this is the production like this and they're, they |
|
| 71:09 | back then uh expecting that it might take off a little bit any |
|
| 71:15 | there's a gap on this side. In other words, uh production right |
|
| 71:23 | here being uh higher than the world , which is down here, that |
|
| 71:29 | be a surplus. But uh when was, when this was done, |
|
| 71:34 | think they, they had a bit a, an idea that they were |
|
| 71:38 | have some issues going on uh because the war in Ukraine. But uh |
|
| 71:43 | of that's kind of smoothing out right . I personally think uh that there |
|
| 71:49 | other, other forces involved that could problems. The United States economy uh |
|
| 71:56 | to be booming through this inflation and , even though people say it's not |
|
| 72:00 | well, our GDP is climbing, is, you know, pretty |
|
| 72:07 | uh, the reason for, for what I just said and, |
|
| 72:11 | , uh, and, uh, know, everything's running along smoothly. |
|
| 72:15 | uh something you typically see. um, when, when a lot |
|
| 72:23 | economic factors are going really well, inflation is, is a real hiccup |
|
| 72:28 | it's causing problems just because it increases US uh deficit because we, |
|
| 72:36 | the money we borrow has to, know, we have to pay it |
|
| 72:39 | with more money. So the interest goes up against us, it goes |
|
| 72:42 | against the banks and it goes up all the banks around the world. |
|
| 72:46 | so increases in interest rate actually can a negative impact on the economy and |
|
| 72:53 | seeing a little bit of that. . So now I wanna get to |
|
| 73:00 | peak oil. So now I wanna to inconvenient truth. And um I |
|
| 73:05 | , I think more than anything uh is really the problem and uh this |
|
| 73:12 | just showing you uh this is the pretty much um uh I think like |
|
| 73:20 | top 11 economic countries plus uh here's , which is another big one. |
|
| 73:27 | um you can see that um a of growth is, has been going |
|
| 73:31 | in population. India is growing, of Africa is growing. Uh China's |
|
| 73:38 | is growing slowly but you can see they, when they project it, |
|
| 73:41 | you get the tail end that you see over here. Uh so much |
|
| 73:46 | of smooth it out and you can that on a, on a longer |
|
| 73:49 | thing. China's population is gonna start . And part of the reason |
|
| 73:54 | is that uh people were allowed at point in time, people were allowed |
|
| 73:58 | have one child. Now they're allowed have two people that are, that |
|
| 74:02 | agriculture allowed to have more Children have been allowed to have more Children. |
|
| 74:06 | uh as long as their economy is well, I think their population is |
|
| 74:09 | start going up as well. And and I think uh that's one of |
|
| 74:17 | things that we have to be, you know, if you, I |
|
| 74:22 | this an inconvenient truth because if, , if we go to what it |
|
| 74:28 | to look like, and this is chart that's almost identical to uh this |
|
| 74:33 | chart over here is almost identical to Al Gore showed. And he didn't |
|
| 74:38 | that this is a problem. He simply mentioned that CO2 is going |
|
| 74:43 | But uh I think it's very I don't know what we can do |
|
| 74:50 | it or how we can do anything it. But it's very clear that |
|
| 74:53 | itself is the single biggest reason we're problems with the environment. And uh |
|
| 74:59 | if, if all of our cars running on, on uh salt |
|
| 75:06 | uh we'd still have problems because of population that we have. Uh |
|
| 75:10 | it creates a, a tremendous burden , um on hydrocarbons. Just if |
|
| 75:16 | just consider the agricultural footprint that uh comes with having to feed a lot |
|
| 75:21 | people. And, uh you a lot of us wanna switch over |
|
| 75:25 | , to vegetables instead of meats you know, that creates its own |
|
| 75:30 | too. And uh it's, uh you know, I guess the |
|
| 75:36 | is if, if you grow crops feed the cattle, uh you also |
|
| 75:41 | to deal with methane from the Whereas if you just grow crops, |
|
| 75:45 | have to deal with all the methane the crops. And uh but a |
|
| 75:48 | of people aren't aware that agriculture creates huge footprint and we don't even work |
|
| 75:54 | we don't even worry about it or about it because we don't, we |
|
| 75:59 | have meters out there measuring how much uh vegetation is sitting on top of |
|
| 76:04 | uh on top of a farm We don't. Uh and in the |
|
| 76:10 | , a lot of people didn't realize if you just take, you just |
|
| 76:14 | take farming equipment and turn the soil , you're releasing CO2 and uh and |
|
| 76:21 | into the atmosphere because the bacteria is destroying it. You doing? |
|
| 76:25 | , back there? Yes. OK. Anyway, uh so |
|
| 76:32 | this again is, is uh is something that I think is an |
|
| 76:38 | Now when I was, when I born I probably shouldn't show you |
|
| 76:40 | But when I was born, that's where the curve was. And, |
|
| 76:47 | , uh, you know, we're about 2.5 billion people and, |
|
| 76:51 | big chunk of them lived in China now, um, as of November |
|
| 77:00 | we're on the red curve. when I was teaching this in |
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| 77:05 | the 2020 this, this number hadn't posted yet. It takes a while |
|
| 77:09 | people to, uh, to get their numbers together. But, but |
|
| 77:13 | where it was in 11 2022 just few months ago, several months. |
|
| 77:19 | , half about, about half a ago. And, uh, and |
|
| 77:25 | people were arguing that it's probably gonna like this and it might go like |
|
| 77:29 | if it goes like this, I'm there's only one reason that would cause |
|
| 77:33 | and I don't want to even mention . But, uh, but I |
|
| 77:37 | , uh this is, is something we have to uh deal with more |
|
| 77:42 | just transportation. I think everything that do is creating a problem. |
|
| 77:49 | you know, um, again, perspective, we had a committee, |
|
| 77:55 | sustainability committee on this campus and they a bunch of, uh history teachers |
|
| 78:01 | English teachers and maybe a couple of . But I don't think they got |
|
| 78:04 | engineer and they decided if we got , toilets that flushed only half a |
|
| 78:10 | or a gallon instead of the two or whatever. We'd save a lot |
|
| 78:14 | , a lot of water. Turns half of the campus doesn't have the |
|
| 78:18 | necessary for those things to work They finally got it, uh, |
|
| 78:23 | 10 years later, but for, 10 years over in, in our |
|
| 78:27 | and some of the buildings over here had to flush, you had to |
|
| 78:30 | at least twice to get it to , if not three times because the |
|
| 78:35 | wasn't right. So an engineer would known that was a problem day |
|
| 78:40 | But a whole group of people trying solve the problem, they don't quite |
|
| 78:44 | , came up with the wrong solution putting those in now that we have |
|
| 78:49 | pressure up would be really good. for a long time, we were |
|
| 78:52 | a lot of work. And uh again, you have to understand exactly |
|
| 78:57 | the problem is before you try to it. OK. So uh so |
|
| 79:05 | all know that around 18 50 the we had an uh industrial revolution where |
|
| 79:16 | started burning hydrocarbons. Uh not just but coal, we started with |
|
| 79:21 | And then uh a few decades we started hitting it heavy on the |
|
| 79:25 | liquid fuels. But uh what besides hydrocarbons, it started with the industrial |
|
| 79:33 | started. That also has a tremendous somewhere between uh 30 to 35% of |
|
| 79:42 | of the anthropogenic hydrocarbons come from a think that we don't even measure |
|
| 79:56 | What do you think started happening on global scale in the developed countries? |
|
| 80:04 | , it had all the mechanisms. timing is kind of interesting too. |
|
| 80:19 | started having more and more mechanized farming the more mechanized farming we had, |
|
| 80:25 | more fuel we had to burn, more mechanized farming we did, the |
|
| 80:30 | we overturned the fields better, the we uh did a lot of |
|
| 80:35 | But what else happened? So a bunch of things started to happen in |
|
| 80:45 | industrial revolution, not just burning but turning over the soil doing a |
|
| 80:50 | more with agriculture. But we also to put uh we, we uh |
|
| 80:55 | flood control and for irrigation, we damming rivers and we started drilling lots |
|
| 81:01 | wells. And if you think about coming out of a well and uh |
|
| 81:09 | not being allowed to make it to ocean into the salt water, you're |
|
| 81:14 | volumes of water that can evaporate quicker go into the atmosphere quicker. |
|
| 81:21 | uh all of these things related to in a certain extent to agriculture were |
|
| 81:26 | off in a big way too. uh you know, when you get |
|
| 81:30 | a car and you burn 20 gallons gas or 10 gallons of gas, |
|
| 81:34 | measured. Somebody knows how much, much we made, how much we |
|
| 81:37 | , how much we burned. But figuring out how much CO2 is being |
|
| 81:42 | in a field was not really Uh One good thing that's happened recently |
|
| 81:49 | a lot of farming has reverted to methods that do less turnover of the |
|
| 81:56 | . Uh Because they realize that they're releasing gasses into the atmosphere on a |
|
| 82:01 | scale. Just imagine if you go a rainforest, cut down all the |
|
| 82:07 | that are pulling CO2 out of the falling down, uh and returning a |
|
| 82:14 | bit of it to the plants that growing on top of them. But |
|
| 82:17 | the same time, it's sequestering a of CO2. Just imagine if you |
|
| 82:21 | in and plow that down. So CO2 sequestration area is now a CO2 |
|
| 82:30 | emissions area on a major scale. uh so the rainforests are not only |
|
| 82:37 | so that we have beautiful trees and little animals living in them uh in |
|
| 82:42 | nasty ones too, by the but it's also important uh or uh |
|
| 82:49 | CO2. And so I've added this and I, and I don't wanna |
|
| 82:56 | ahead and read it, but I invite you to read it because it's |
|
| 82:59 | lot of facts. But um there's be 8.8 billion people. Uh This |
|
| 83:08 | , this is how quick it went 7.4 not too long ago to 8 |
|
| 83:13 | . And uh because this slide isn't well 2012. And uh and |
|
| 83:21 | um when I say population, one the things is we have to feed |
|
| 83:27 | . You know, we can't starve and no matter what we do, |
|
| 83:31 | gonna need to have hydrocarbons in that . And so we're gonna have to |
|
| 83:35 | and raise and, and uh form hydrocarbons and um 30% is close to |
|
| 83:45 | much transportation puts out. And, , and I'll bring up a couple |
|
| 83:51 | other points. But uh population by is, I think without a |
|
| 83:59 | the single most important uh aspect to . You know, if, if |
|
| 84:05 | can't, we have to learn how deal with these, these increased |
|
| 84:10 | I mean, our technology has to rapidly. And uh you know, |
|
| 84:15 | hope is is that artificial intelligence might us. The problem with a lot |
|
| 84:20 | problems with artificial intelligence is it averages that could be good with data that |
|
| 84:26 | be erroneous. And uh that's one the problems that I still have with |
|
| 84:31 | . And, uh and I, you saw today, we were struggling |
|
| 84:35 | artificial intelligence that was operating on, in the background in this computer. |
|
| 84:40 | It doesn't always work out well. . Um Another thing, uh and |
|
| 84:47 | put this in here and I get lot of pushback on it. But |
|
| 84:53 | the number one greenhouse gas on this , almost as soon as things started |
|
| 85:02 | on it was, was water. the number one greenhouse gas 100 years |
|
| 85:09 | was water. The number one greenhouse today is still H2O and a lot |
|
| 85:16 | atmospheric scientists have been ignoring this, problem. Some of them will tell |
|
| 85:21 | that, you know, temperature controls or, and then therefore the volume |
|
| 85:29 | so that can't be the problem. that's, that's a very um naive |
|
| 85:34 | of looking at it. You Nobel Laureates have said this and the |
|
| 85:38 | is, is that that would be . Yes. The relative humidity of |
|
| 85:46 | atmosphere everywhere was the same number all time. In other words, if |
|
| 85:51 | was always 50% 60% or 100% but isn't, there are places uh that |
|
| 85:57 | 0% because there's not enough water But if we're putting new water sources |
|
| 86:04 | to the surface, we're on, , we're producing them out of the |
|
| 86:08 | just like we're in millions of, gallons and barrels. Actually, a |
|
| 86:13 | of water is being brought to the in well. And uh and a |
|
| 86:18 | of people say, well, it rains and it falls down but, |
|
| 86:20 | you're taking sequestered water supply and putting in the atmospheric supply and that's why |
|
| 86:26 | a problem. And uh and it , it may take certain people a |
|
| 86:32 | to, to grasp that. And of the problem is this uh the |
|
| 86:37 | , the people that wrote these papers did this research uh on the slide |
|
| 86:42 | this got a lot of pushback. as it turns out, people are |
|
| 86:45 | to realize they were right. uh, and we have a real |
|
| 86:48 | here. Ok. And, and there you can read this |
|
| 86:53 | but I pretty much said what was most important part of it? But |
|
| 86:57 | do, uh, wish that you this because, uh, if you |
|
| 87:01 | the, if you read parts of book and look at most of my |
|
| 87:05 | after hearing the lecture, you're you're gonna get a, a 90 |
|
| 87:09 | above in this class, but almost ever gets above a 90 on |
|
| 87:14 | on the uh test in my So I'm hoping you guys are gonna |
|
| 87:19 | a great group and you actually uh some of this stuff when you get |
|
| 87:22 | chance. OK? So uh the big thing is the pace of hydrocarbon |
|
| 87:32 | by carbon free. You can't see on here, but it says carbon |
|
| 87:36 | alternates. OK? And uh to address that you need to kind of |
|
| 87:42 | how much energy we need. Uh is the mix of primary energy |
|
| 87:48 | And I'll show you some pie They don't come out every year. |
|
| 87:51 | whenever, whenever somebody publishes one, grab it so I can put it |
|
| 87:54 | here and uh keep it going. been doing, I've been keeping track |
|
| 87:58 | this since, since 2002 to try get a handle of in, in |
|
| 88:03 | . The data was from 2020 get handle on how well we're, |
|
| 88:08 | it's kind of like a scorecard on well we're doing to replace the hydrocarbon |
|
| 88:13 | of our mix with alternates. And I'm gonna show you an example from |
|
| 88:20 | US again because uh if anybody can it, it should be us. |
|
| 88:26 | uh if I put the whole world there, the scorecard would look |
|
| 88:32 | Ok. Here, um here is just uh what's really interesting in recent |
|
| 88:40 | , the US was the leader in uh in wasting energy. And |
|
| 88:45 | China's definitely overtaken the United States. again, this relates to population and |
|
| 88:52 | other part of pop population was I forgot to mention that I want |
|
| 88:56 | slide before them. I showed the as uh the G GDP of any |
|
| 89:05 | goes up, the gross investing product up. In other words, wealth |
|
| 89:11 | wealth grows, energy consumption grows. so the more people we have on |
|
| 89:16 | world and the more equitable we are the way uh everybody's society is the |
|
| 89:23 | likely that we're gonna have in the the foreseeable future uh that apparently we're |
|
| 89:32 | doing a good job uh replacing uh the moment. And um so I |
|
| 89:38 | this is sort of, this is problem that faces us. The population |
|
| 89:43 | , is growing, it's red That's the best way I think to |
|
| 89:48 | it. And uh and countries who limited GDP are exploding and, |
|
| 89:55 | keep hearing really good things about This economy is starting to explode and |
|
| 90:00 | population has exploded and they, they now have more people and, |
|
| 90:06 | , and uh, unless these uh, don't like the good life |
|
| 90:11 | I know that's not true. that GDP is gonna have to grow |
|
| 90:15 | their energy rates are gonna have to up. And so India is going |
|
| 90:19 | be looking for uh, energy from places even more than already. |
|
| 90:29 | So here is uh energy by uh and this was in, uh, |
|
| 90:38 | was it 2005? And, this was the role of petroleum |
|
| 90:46 | natural gas. This, this would essentially oil and uh, some of |
|
| 90:52 | uh, lighter, uh, the heavier gasses, uh, lighter |
|
| 90:58 | and, uh, and uh, was 23%. Nuclear power was |
|
| 91:03 | renewable energy was 6%. And if take that 6% and break it down |
|
| 91:12 | this, what's real obvious alter? think, we think we're solving a |
|
| 91:23 | by using biomass. Unfortunately, biomass burn it will get CO2 anyway. |
|
| 91:31 | , yeah, then we were to grease and oil and cooking and throw |
|
| 91:39 | out on the street and let it , right? Oh, you did |
|
| 91:49 | ? Not good at all. Ok. Well, anyway, |
|
| 91:59 | uh, I think what's really important that in terms of, uh, |
|
| 92:04 | that biomass, right? There is of of what they make at that |
|
| 92:09 | . Yeah, that's not really helping just putting more ID. But out |
|
| 92:14 | , uh, when, when I working at Mobile, a lot of |
|
| 92:19 | , uh, are unaware of but, uh, back then Mobile |
|
| 92:23 | had, they were the largest a lot of the patents, but |
|
| 92:28 | is why we have, um, tags now. And, uh, |
|
| 92:34 | I don't think they would have gotten where they are now, but they |
|
| 92:37 | started and back many decades ago, Mobile was one of the biggest leaders |
|
| 92:45 | uh and they were producing um some the soul and uh and we're talking |
|
| 92:53 | way before 2005. And uh but was an economic debt and uh |
|
| 93:00 | now it is because especially because we've subsidized. But uh that's something that |
|
| 93:08 | . And uh another thing they did this biomass, they were trying to |
|
| 93:13 | figure out how to produce um Uh way back then too. What |
|
| 93:20 | you think happened? It's still happening . You uh for you to produce |
|
| 93:28 | today. It takes almost as much and in some cases, more energy |
|
| 93:34 | uh like if you're, you doing cane, if you do sugar cane |
|
| 93:37 | Brazil where they have people um have be careful how I say this, |
|
| 93:43 | they shouldn't have said Brazil, I say countries that have very cheaply. |
|
| 93:48 | you do sugar cane in Brazil, can actually do it with people instead |
|
| 93:52 | machines and you actually get a, actually becomes a good alternate source. |
|
| 93:58 | One of the main reasons for doing is because we thought there was gonna |
|
| 94:02 | peak oil, there's cheap oil and don't have enough oil, you gotta |
|
| 94:06 | it some happen. This would be , but it's not really green, |
|
| 94:10 | an alternate, but it's not really green alternate and uh, it's really |
|
| 94:14 | to get that point across. uh, so this is what they're |
|
| 94:19 | . Uh This is what we as society are doing to try to reduce |
|
| 94:24 | 39% that 23% of that 20. , and, um, so up |
|
| 94:38 | that point, then we go to and, um, here you can |
|
| 94:47 | , um, and I, I more slides uh further back too, |
|
| 94:52 | if I, if I take, all of them, but here |
|
| 94:55 | you can kind of understand this Now, um, this is cold |
|
| 95:00 | juicy, cold so dirty, you even see it. Ok. So |
|
| 95:09 | , it's down here. Uh, yes, it's, it's lost its |
|
| 95:13 | but it's lost its, uh, is up here and natural gas is |
|
| 95:18 | . Uh, one of the good about natural gas is it, |
|
| 95:22 | often can be, uh 40% uh co2, uh when you burn |
|
| 95:28 | because it produces more, more heat uh per mole. And, |
|
| 95:35 | and this, this produces a lot CO2 to get the same amount of |
|
| 95:39 | as the standard P. In other , it's mostly, it's mostly hydrogen |
|
| 95:43 | , and uh if you think about in a real simple way that hydrogen |
|
| 95:47 | sort of a factor um that creates the energy, it's really, |
|
| 95:52 | really burning hydrogen uh when you're burning natural gas and the uh and the |
|
| 95:58 | side of it is, uh, this, of course, you |
|
| 96:01 | you have a long life change and like that to get the, |
|
| 96:07 | some of the, uh, tubes come off of the refineries and stuff |
|
| 96:12 | that or the CO2. So you , have a lot of problem, |
|
| 96:15 | problems when you're using the. And, um, but this is |
|
| 96:22 | reason why natural gas should, should be a big focus. And, |
|
| 96:27 | , here you can see the biomass been reduced down to 46% here. |
|
| 96:35 | , uh, and hydroelectric has grown little bit and so on and so |
|
| 96:40 | . But you can see here that total renewable energy and more of it's |
|
| 96:45 | little, a little bit, just little bit more of it's cleaner. |
|
| 96:48 | , but if you just take the things, the, um, things |
|
| 96:53 | are carbon neutral, uh, has from, uh, 3 to 5.4% |
|
| 97:02 | , for an average of 2.4 um, 15 years. Uh, |
|
| 97:08 | gained almost that much. And over years, it ends up being, |
|
| 97:16 | uh this is the carbon neutral part it. You divide that by |
|
| 97:20 | by the, um, by the of years and it's 0.16%. Uh |
|
| 97:26 | grown 0.16%. So what it, it means, what it means is |
|
| 97:31 | , this pie has gotten just a tiny bit bigger and displaced a little |
|
| 97:36 | more of this than it did uh year. Ok. So, and |
|
| 97:43 | 15 years, it's a total of . So in 15 years, what |
|
| 97:48 | is it gonna be? 38? about 35? Yeah, so, |
|
| 98:00 | we have all these targets for How are we gonna get there? |
|
| 98:05 | . So I think, well, , we were just starting to do |
|
| 98:09 | renewable stuff here which we weren't but we were putting more thought into |
|
| 98:15 | was basically what happened. And uh , we were always doing a lot |
|
| 98:19 | renewables that were uh carbon free but , never nearly enough that we have |
|
| 98:26 | do. So I thought, what about the last few years when |
|
| 98:29 | , we started subsidizing it and just money in it like crazy million |
|
| 98:34 | if not trillions of dollars. And through 2019, renewable energy goes up |
|
| 98:42 | 10%. I mean 11% to And uh so from 2017 to |
|
| 98:52 | it gives you four years. Um carbon neutral increase is 0.7% a |
|
| 98:59 | And, uh, and that was . So if you take all of |
|
| 99:04 | though and average it out 2020 was . We had the drop in |
|
| 99:08 | But if you take that whole period time, it's been increasing 0.29% it's |
|
| 99:14 | , it's not 29%. It's it's less than 1%. It's less |
|
| 99:21 | a third of a percent. We that times 10 years. If we |
|
| 99:26 | growing our supply as much as we so far, we still will only |
|
| 99:32 | um 100% or about 30 years. , um in 30 years, we |
|
| 99:41 | get uh 10%. I mean, years, it will take three years |
|
| 99:48 | to get a little bit over three to get 1%. So uh this |
|
| 99:56 | not growing fast. There's no way can achieve the replacement of all of |
|
| 100:01 | energy and the demand of this energy going up every day. So the |
|
| 100:06 | grew that the man continues to whether you like it or not, |
|
| 100:13 | happened. And uh and I, I wouldn't know how to stop |
|
| 100:18 | To be honest, people would be at you if you said you have |
|
| 100:23 | cut back, you know, it's be the hardest thing in the world |
|
| 100:26 | we do it. And um so that's, that's sort of what |
|
| 100:35 | this and that, that's why I'm very worried and, uh, |
|
| 100:39 | how we're gonna get to where we be. And, um, but |
|
| 100:46 | , you know, you're listening to and it probably makes no sense to |
|
| 100:50 | because you keep hearing, we built windows to how the house a million |
|
| 101:00 | , we built enough power to power city of New York. Ok. |
|
| 101:07 | right now is at a relatively low . But one important reason, not |
|
| 101:13 | many people, like once we start electric cars, there will be some |
|
| 101:20 | involved in it. But there's also in the distribution of electricity, but |
|
| 101:25 | might be able to replace less than of this and still have the bar |
|
| 101:30 | . But the car is only one . And the other thing is, |
|
| 101:35 | uh people that talk about renewables like tell you power generation, they |
|
| 101:41 | they wanna tell you what they can with power generation. And uh |
|
| 101:45 | that's one of the um unfortunate uh about uh the, the perception that |
|
| 101:55 | have of it. We, you , when we're told that, you |
|
| 101:57 | , they have enough to power a people's houses. Uh We're not, |
|
| 102:01 | we don't look at the big picture the whole energy need. This, |
|
| 102:06 | is all not how our generation is small part of it. And uh |
|
| 102:14 | I'll show you some slides and and then I, I did, |
|
| 102:19 | did do this one just for 2020 show you that if, if |
|
| 102:25 | um if you get rid of 20 barrels a day, um the contribution |
|
| 102:36 | renewables goes up and this basically happened 20 million barrels uh just disappeared from |
|
| 102:51 | , ok. And here is, this is something that I saw out |
|
| 102:55 | the Wall Street Journal. I wouldn't reading the editorial pages in the Wall |
|
| 103:00 | Journal. But the, the data they put in the Wall Street Journal |
|
| 103:03 | usually pretty darn good. They uh, they use excellent sources of |
|
| 103:07 | lot of, I have a lot faith in their reporters. And, |
|
| 103:13 | , so we were looking at 2020 is where we were and this is |
|
| 103:22 | we have to get by 25th 50 we, uh, are gonna do |
|
| 103:28 | and how are we gonna do Yeah, we're not gonna, how |
|
| 103:32 | we gonna get a third of a of an increase to do this? |
|
| 103:34 | is the amount of money it's gonna to where you're spending 1.2 trillion. |
|
| 103:41 | , be sure to get to that . And, um, and |
|
| 103:46 | uh, um, that's a lot money and that's just looking at it |
|
| 103:54 | . Technically. When I look at thing, I don't know how they're |
|
| 103:57 | do it technically, but financially it's be a huge burden as well. |
|
| 104:06 | . And, and, uh, of the, uh, exercises I'm |
|
| 104:09 | , uh, hand out to you probably tomorrow is that I would like |
|
| 104:14 | , and this is not gonna be that takes you a lot of |
|
| 104:17 | But what you're gonna do is get , look at some papers, |
|
| 104:21 | look for some real data that can you some insights about our, the |
|
| 104:27 | and also our ability to solve the . Yeah, there's real data out |
|
| 104:32 | . Um You can totally disagree with I said. As long as you |
|
| 104:36 | data to show, if you just on power generation, you're gonna make |
|
| 104:41 | look like I'm telling you a But it's not, it's just that |
|
| 104:45 | generation is a small part of our need. And uh and, and |
|
| 104:53 | , here's another thing. Uh uh next thing I wanna show you |
|
| 104:58 | you know, where, where do stand right now? And uh and |
|
| 105:05 | are the things that don't have farm and uh the US is not the |
|
| 105:13 | right now because of a lot of that have happened in China. But |
|
| 105:16 | been the leader in these things uh probably since the day I was |
|
| 105:23 | And uh so it's, you I often sense that people think we |
|
| 105:28 | worked on this, but we've been this for decades and in fact, |
|
| 105:33 | half a century, so here is leaders in nuclear power production and um |
|
| 105:47 | numbers um basically are, are showing how much it's gone up recently. |
|
| 105:56 | I think in the last uh year so, but the US has, |
|
| 106:00 | still added some tera watts. Uh has fallen down a little bit. |
|
| 106:05 | , when we, normally, when talk about nuclear power, everybody thinks |
|
| 106:09 | is gonna be. And uh France hasn't been the leader uh in |
|
| 106:14 | power, but France, France produces 100% of its electricity and they switch |
|
| 106:22 | to um electric cars. This number keep going down. This number is |
|
| 106:30 | have to go up. Ok. it, and it's not, |
|
| 106:35 | you know, they're worried about the impact China, of course, has |
|
| 106:38 | a lot of nuclear power plants, has gone up 100 and 20 watts |
|
| 106:46 | of course, uh uh if you about it, you know, they're |
|
| 106:51 | catch up with us pretty soon, definitely gonna surpass, I'm sure |
|
| 106:56 | within another year they're gonna surpass me uh it produces about 10% of the |
|
| 107:07 | the world's needs for electricity and and, and all of that energy |
|
| 107:13 | into electricity by the way. So is 10% of all of our energy |
|
| 107:21 | . So, uh just even from chart alone, you can kind of |
|
| 107:25 | that nuclear power doesn't cover all the , but electricity isn't that big, |
|
| 107:30 | of a park compared to transportation and things, excuse me. But this |
|
| 107:40 | just uh this is just over the uh the last year it's switched since |
|
| 107:46 | , since, uh, I don't if I have the other chart. |
|
| 107:48 | don't have another chart here. I to have a whole bunch of charts |
|
| 107:51 | this two way. But, but, uh, yeah, this |
|
| 107:56 | recent growth or a lot or all other, you know, some, |
|
| 108:00 | countries are making progress with it. aren't. But again, uh, |
|
| 108:05 | , the one technology that we currently that could start filling the gap would |
|
| 108:09 | nuclear power and uh most people are frightened of uh nuclear power for good |
|
| 108:17 | . OK. Here is uh photovoltaic that there's also um uh thermal energy |
|
| 108:26 | straight um uh where they heat sunlight and stuff like that. Um |
|
| 108:34 | even helped my daughter feel very good a solar engine. It had, |
|
| 108:44 | a little, it had a personal really focuses the sunlight and put the |
|
| 108:52 | that this glass ball would have water it and it would start to boil |
|
| 108:56 | the would come out and, but was, it was a way to |
|
| 109:01 | it. You can source like a a turbine and make it spin. |
|
| 109:07 | . So uh but that's, that's the other type of uh solar energy |
|
| 109:10 | . But uh the TV is the that we're really hoping. Uh but |
|
| 109:15 | you can see um the US uh one point in time uh was at |
|
| 109:22 | top China has been um installing stuff faster than me. And, |
|
| 109:28 | there's, there's huge fields in Georgia I, when I drive across the |
|
| 109:32 | for a year or two to, South Carolina and you see a lot |
|
| 109:36 | solar panel fields and stuff like But it's still, you know, |
|
| 109:40 | , it's still, it's kind of big part for power generation and power |
|
| 109:45 | is a small part of the energy , uh, this one would be |
|
| 109:54 | or minus since 2016. You can't it. It's, it's back |
|
| 110:02 | And that one I think was just the last few years, the last |
|
| 110:09 | . OK. And here is um wind energy. OK. Let me |
|
| 110:19 | you something. This is another thing perspective. What does that tell |
|
| 110:29 | What is the word up here? called, this is how much they |
|
| 110:35 | . This isn't how much they have for. This is how much they |
|
| 110:41 | . If you have solar or they tell you capacity, they never |
|
| 110:47 | you production because production would not impress because that's another thing, not only |
|
| 110:52 | the contribution to power generation, a part of the total need, but |
|
| 110:57 | they don't even tell you what their is because production of solar and wind |
|
| 111:02 | month to month is never more than of its capacity. So if, |
|
| 111:08 | you can imagine nuclear power or every power plant worth of production, we |
|
| 111:14 | to build three nuclear power plants. you imagine how expensive that would |
|
| 111:21 | And um so here you can see this again, its capacity, nuclear |
|
| 111:31 | production. This one is the Ok. If the T was spin |
|
| 111:39 | full capacity the whole time, that's it would produce. Almost never |
|
| 111:47 | might happen a couple of days in row. Uh But it doesn't happen |
|
| 111:51 | a month, a couple of years . Now, during COVID, uh |
|
| 111:57 | wind stopped blowing in Europe and they in real trouble with, uh with |
|
| 112:02 | power up because, because uh if don't have air conditioning, wind can |
|
| 112:06 | a pretty good job on keeping your levels up. But uh the heat |
|
| 112:10 | up and the power went, uh off and uh and, and they |
|
| 112:14 | struggling to get natural gas and here geothermal and again, um I just |
|
| 112:26 | it. There's Iceland right down. would think Iceland is, is 100% |
|
| 112:32 | . But, you know, I don't think they have a million |
|
| 112:37 | . Norway's only got 4.5 5 million . Norway has a lot of hydroelectric |
|
| 112:44 | . And uh because of that, they actually uh they actually uh provide |
|
| 112:50 | to almost all of Sweden for the that have. But again, it |
|
| 112:55 | to do with population. If you a small population, you can do |
|
| 112:59 | . If you have a gigantic you're in trouble. Where's, where's |
|
| 113:03 | next biggest, uh country where is biggest one? It's not even |
|
| 113:08 | There is the biggest country in the biggest country are India and China. |
|
| 113:18 | is the third large. Well, not even sure if US is the |
|
| 113:22 | Russian. Ok. And so um hydroelectric and here they run this |
|
| 113:39 | This is, they actually have production they have a turtle that runs and |
|
| 113:45 | know how much is coming out. don't tell you capacity. And uh |
|
| 113:54 | US uh used to be one of biggest China, of course, uh |
|
| 113:59 | the biggest now. They um they pounding millions and millions of acres of |
|
| 114:06 | and displaced, I think, well a million people to build the |
|
| 114:11 | And uh and now they have this uh uh present. We're now that |
|
| 114:18 | a lot of, but it's still small amount compared to, to all |
|
| 114:23 | we need. Um Here's uh Norway here. Um Again, they uh |
|
| 114:32 | have a small population. So even they're very well on the list, |
|
| 114:36 | actually paying for almost all of their or producing almost all of their electricity |
|
| 114:42 | . Just from your view, the and um the way they uh they |
|
| 114:49 | so much electricity, um their central is you have force and you run |
|
| 114:55 | a special um cables underneath them, put out heat from resistance and it's |
|
| 115:02 | it's gotta be the most inefficient way provide simple heat. A simple |
|
| 115:07 | He didn't know that they have so , still cheap. Mm. |
|
| 115:13 | and they only have 4.5 to 5 people to keep warm. Uh, |
|
| 115:18 | does get cold but, uh, coldest day in my life that I've |
|
| 115:22 | lived was in Oklahoma and the hottest was in Oklahoma. And, |
|
| 115:27 | Norway, uh, where I lived Norway it never got as cold as |
|
| 115:31 | of the winters in Okla because we so far away from the ocean, |
|
| 115:37 | , blanket, so to speak. bottom line is, is that all |
|
| 115:42 | these things are still, if uh, if you take away the |
|
| 115:46 | , they're still really expensive. This what you're gonna pay for that |
|
| 115:50 | Um, when your, when your or gas or your electric bill. |
|
| 115:56 | it, but it is what it to put, uh, put this |
|
| 115:59 | capacity, not production, but to this much capacity online, uh, |
|
| 116:05 | takes an awful lot of money. , one thing that's interesting is |
|
| 116:12 | um, natural gas is, is still only cheap. This might be |
|
| 116:19 | than this right now just because some these prices fluctuate over time. But |
|
| 116:23 | general, it's still pretty much the chart. And, um, here's |
|
| 116:31 | for win and here we're not talking , uh Tater watts or kilowatts. |
|
| 116:37 | just talking, uh, we're uh tera watts or megawatts or anything |
|
| 116:43 | that. We're just talking about, , a kilowatt. And, |
|
| 116:47 | this is the dollar price for these things. And you can see again |
|
| 116:51 | that there's, there's a broad range these things. Hydroelectric is one of |
|
| 116:55 | cheapest. But to do hydroelectric, have to dam up something for the |
|
| 116:59 | part, you have to take away phones. Uh, there's a, |
|
| 117:04 | , there's two dams in South uh, the lakes and, |
|
| 117:08 | one of them is Lake Moultrie. , uh, there was, |
|
| 117:13 | like during, uh, just before war two they started, they built |
|
| 117:17 | things so they get power generation during war and use the fuel tanks, |
|
| 117:22 | , you know, on the battlefield they, the, the ships for |
|
| 117:26 | oil and that sort of thing. , uh, but, uh, |
|
| 117:30 | is probably one of the most efficient , but again, it has a |
|
| 117:33 | environmental impact. Uh, some of lakes that we get to go fishing |
|
| 117:38 | are nice things too. So, some ways it adds to the |
|
| 117:41 | Uh, but it's, it's it's a costly thing because you need |
|
| 117:44 | acreage and people usually live on especially with the population of the world |
|
| 117:48 | , 8 billion instead of 2.5 Excuse me. Um, I forget |
|
| 118:00 | it is, you know, something of energy or something. Yeah, |
|
| 118:11 | what it is here. That's kind looking at some of the, |
|
| 118:18 | that's looking at some of the, , outside costs so this, this |
|
| 118:22 | away uh the subsidies or lack of . OK. And so when we |
|
| 118:33 | about alternate energy, I think there's slights of hand, when is the |
|
| 118:38 | potential that we think of is And part of that is because |
|
| 118:43 | we explain it in capacity versus Uh Another part of it is there's |
|
| 118:48 | focus when they talk about what it for us, they talk about so |
|
| 118:55 | houses with electrical power, they don't about the overall global need of |
|
| 119:00 | And uh and then it is, is heavily subsidized so far. |
|
| 119:06 | you know, the US government was hitting people think it was $7000 |
|
| 119:14 | buy a subsidy or a tax break buy a electric cars. And uh |
|
| 119:19 | day after that was announced, Ford they're gonna increase the price of their |
|
| 119:24 | truck by 7, 7500. So a huge part of all of |
|
| 119:31 | It's not cheating. No, it . Anyway, it's, it |
|
| 119:38 | it's a little bit depressing. But um, so anyway, um and |
|
| 119:44 | of all the alternates are hydrocarbons and of the last charts, the |
|
| 119:49 | the hydrocarbon part was down to something 47%. So they're trying to make |
|
| 119:54 | , some headway on that. I the fact that they're trying to do |
|
| 119:57 | farming in a different way to stop the soil is gonna help. But |
|
| 120:02 | , they keep thinking about how big problem is and then we need to |
|
| 120:06 | it, you know, even down the level of how much pressure goes |
|
| 120:10 | that toilet, you know, these deep, they make a lot of |
|
| 120:14 | . And the another amazing thing about of this is conservation, you |
|
| 120:19 | you share a ride with somebody just the bill in hand just like |
|
| 120:25 | you know. And, uh, conservation is still one of the most |
|
| 120:30 | things and I don't see anybody pushing politically, um in a way that |
|
| 120:35 | should to help us get to where gonna get. And, uh, |
|
| 120:39 | of course, the wealthier countries might the ones that can do more conservation |
|
| 120:45 | because, you know, we, have enough infrastructure and what not to |
|
| 120:49 | something. Uh You know, if in a developing country, you might |
|
| 120:54 | have al alternate means, you there, there may only be one |
|
| 120:58 | with one bus and everybody's on that already. You know, there's nothing |
|
| 121:02 | they can do to uh to get fuel needs lower. So, uh |
|
| 121:07 | it, it does behoove all of in these wealthier countries to really consider |
|
| 121:13 | uh more efforts in terms of our personal conservation methods. Uh I didn't |
|
| 121:18 | much of a job when I got diesel car but uh but I did |
|
| 121:22 | a diesel car and, and I would like to report that, |
|
| 121:27 | Uh, well, I'm, it's in the shop for a, |
|
| 121:31 | , emissions thing was an Audi and , and it got completely repaired, |
|
| 121:35 | even after the diesel repairs that they to do on it, uh, |
|
| 121:40 | the last couple of months I've had half a dozen days that I've been |
|
| 121:44 | to get in here on an average 44 MPG with a diesel car and |
|
| 121:51 | loaner car, which is a brand 2023 high efficiency two liter engine on |
|
| 121:59 | best day I've gotten, uh, miles to a gallon, which |
|
| 122:03 | you know, um, just a bit more than half. So that's |
|
| 122:09 | working. I'm wasting a lot of right now. If, uh, |
|
| 122:13 | that have gas cars hopped into my , uh, it would save a |
|
| 122:17 | of fuel and, uh, if all drove a little bit more |
|
| 122:23 | we would save a lot of people . Ok. So, uh, |
|
| 122:29 | don't think I need to read this this is the summary of what |
|
| 122:32 | uh, this lecture was all And, uh, and I, |
|
| 122:36 | I think it's an important, I know it seems like, |
|
| 122:40 | non technical stuff. No geology, sciences. But, you know, |
|
| 122:45 | you're gonna go out and look for , you got to have an idea |
|
| 122:47 | how important it is. And I if anything I just told, told |
|
| 122:52 | in spite of, uh, the that make the price of oil and |
|
| 122:56 | go up. Uh, what I showed you strongly suggests the need for |
|
| 123:01 | and gas is, is hypercritical for survival of the part of our |
|
| 123:07 | Yeah. And I don't think you deny that. I mean, |
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| 123:13 | when I, when I made my to not worry about and I went |
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| 123:16 | the oil industry, I knew every I was providing fuel, fuel |
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| 123:22 | schools, all sorts of stuff and and industry and just, it's an |
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| 123:27 | thing and it's totally directly related to I say totally, but it's directly |
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| 123:33 | to GDP S in developing countries that progressive. So, uh it's really |
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| 123:41 | important thing to remember, but uh able to provide this source of energy |
|
| 123:46 | still gonna be important. Uh There seem to be a threat but uh |
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| 123:52 | on the rate at which we're, replacing the hydrocarbons with alternates is, |
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| 123:57 | desperately low and that's not to stop doing that. That's to |
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| 124:01 | please do more. I'm gonna get of your way, do whatever you |
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| 124:05 | to do and may maybe you'll start , you know, displacing 1% or |
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| 124:11 | or even 3% a year. And that will still take you guys to |
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| 124:15 | end of your career at your young . Yeah. Uh This would be |
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| 124:42 | good time to take a break. can find my cursor again. That's |
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| 124:54 | I run, I run into trouble I get, does anybody see my |
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| 124:57 | on the other is ok. the way I'm gonna do these recordings |
|
| 126:02 | general is usually the Saturday will be recording but the, uh, |
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| 126:08 | I mean, excuse me, the will be one recording but the Saturdays |
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| 126:11 | be a morning and an afternoon. try not to get them too |
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| 126:16 | uh, makes it a little bit to work. Ok. So now |
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| 126:21 | gonna look at a lot of the and concepts that we uh that we |
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| 126:25 | with here. And uh the first is what is petroleum geoscience? And |
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| 126:31 | I used to have a whole bunch slides uh because, you know, |
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| 126:35 | somebody teaches sequence stratigraphy, they define , structural geology, sometimes they define |
|
| 126:41 | . But if you're a practical, think a thing out of your book |
|
| 126:45 | is the best thing. Uh 2004 I don't think it changed in the |
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| 126:51 | edition, which just came out about year and a half ago. Uh |
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| 126:55 | um uh but that's, that's kind how I see it as a |
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| 127:00 | It's um geology, physics as they're to understanding the origin distribution of properties |
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| 127:08 | petroleum and petroleum bearings. And uh also relates to producing it too, |
|
| 127:16 | out ways these days. This this pretty much covers um all of |
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| 127:23 | we do in frontier and exploration when get to uh appraisal distribution of properties |
|
| 127:34 | really important when it comes to development production in that part, it's important |
|
| 127:41 | . But uh it helps to know little bit about how things are produced |
|
| 127:45 | that kind of thing uh to understand you can answer those questions as a |
|
| 127:53 | . OK. And again, here's value chain and uh what the value |
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| 127:57 | is, it's, uh it looks , you know, how do we |
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| 128:03 | at these things and how are we on the value of a property from |
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| 128:10 | different stages of actually a petroleum system a resolution? Because at some point |
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| 128:18 | time, it's part of the frontier and then it becomes an exploration |
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| 128:25 | It could also be part of an uh further the early development of uh |
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| 128:33 | of that first initial well and that or whatever it is, uh a |
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| 128:40 | of the next couple of steps might be considered exploration. Uh But then |
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| 128:45 | you, you venture outside of that , but to something that's very similar |
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| 128:50 | terms of its the Asian, the , the source rock types of structures |
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| 128:55 | the sea and the prospects and that of thing um is what exploitation is |
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| 129:01 | about. Then appraisal is of focusing in on those things and trying |
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| 129:05 | figure out um exactly how big you it is a limited number of the |
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| 129:11 | number of data. Uh put into . And then when you get to |
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| 129:16 | development, you're looking this, this actually a lot of this is based |
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| 129:20 | static data, some dynamic data. this gets, this really uh leans |
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| 129:26 | on dynamic data when you get into and production. And if I ask |
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| 129:39 | again, um I don't know if pointed it out because it was saying |
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| 129:45 | in it slightly different. If if I ever ask you what the |
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| 129:48 | , what are the four steps of value chain? This is how I |
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| 129:51 | do it. There's six steps in , but these two are very, |
|
| 129:56 | are, these have a really strong shake and these two down here have |
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| 130:00 | very strong, but uh this is doing something different. This is |
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| 130:08 | uh I think a really key It has a lot of things that |
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| 130:12 | need to focus on to do Right. And uh that's what your |
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| 130:17 | exercise is. It's an attempt to a field with a few wells in |
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| 130:32 | . Ok. Um This is the it used to be. Um And |
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| 130:42 | a, I'm a geologist so I I got to apologize for that. |
|
| 130:46 | uh the uh the ability for us get a rock that, that we |
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| 130:54 | touch in a, or a rock a tool is touching directly. Uh |
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| 131:00 | I call that hard geological thing. I know we had a, |
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| 131:04 | recently about three years ago, we a grad student that was signing uh |
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| 131:09 | data to um to and everybody in our committee called that they called the |
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| 131:20 | Data Soft Data and the seismic The seismic data is, is just |
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| 131:26 | form of uh remote sensing. And or I shouldn't say just an incredible |
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| 131:31 | type of remote sensing and the real geological data as a geologist is being |
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| 131:39 | to um see and touch that rock our hand and eyes and uh or |
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| 131:46 | a tool that actually touches, not that just sends energy waste to |
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| 131:52 | And uh with all of the, myriad of, of issues with uh |
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| 131:57 | of data and all of the issues processing that data problem. Although uh |
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| 132:02 | people that worked on it were really , they're doing amazing things. I |
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| 132:06 | am amazed that it actually works. You know, you have all these |
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| 132:10 | waves, uh all these energy waves off of uh multiple uh horizons and |
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| 132:19 | and they're able to keep track of the different returns and when the how |
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| 132:23 | the returns uh uh have have it helps, you know that you |
|
| 132:28 | more than GEO one geo phone and and that sort of thing. And |
|
| 132:32 | when we have a 3d G Fone , that's uh that's a whole another |
|
| 132:37 | ballgame and, and some of the things can be a lot more um |
|
| 132:44 | detailed in terms of, of, data because, you know, they |
|
| 132:49 | , if they want, they can use uh geophones, they can uh |
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| 132:54 | shear waves and all sorts of converted and uh uh offshore stuff can work |
|
| 133:01 | converted waves. But they, but don't um necessarily have a way to |
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| 133:06 | to do shear waves unless you have bottom type sensors. So uh what |
|
| 133:12 | slide talks about though is uh normally the geological effort was really big up |
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| 133:19 | because this was, they used to it the sexy end of our business |
|
| 133:23 | it was had a lot of OK. There was a lot of |
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| 133:26 | in it, but I don't know it's even um politically correct to use |
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| 133:31 | term anymore. But uh but where there's money, it, you |
|
| 133:36 | , it's it kind of uh invigorates , right? And so uh uh |
|
| 133:43 | so much in the frontier, but we got into exploration exploitation, that's |
|
| 133:47 | all this money is. And part the money was the acquisition of |
|
| 133:53 | I think one of the reason why geophysics did so well in the oil |
|
| 133:57 | is because uh they had to invest lot of money to acquire it, |
|
| 134:03 | had to invest a lot of money process it and interpret it. And |
|
| 134:07 | because of that, it became a part of the geoscience budget and it's |
|
| 134:12 | bigger budget that's gonna you know, more um activity and the interest. |
|
| 134:19 | having said all that as geologists, a lot of us would work down |
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| 134:23 | this end. And at this we have, we often have no |
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| 134:30 | at this point we are in, only have one. Well, at |
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| 134:34 | point, we only have a few . When we get down here, |
|
| 134:37 | might have a few to hundreds of . Uh And we have the longest |
|
| 134:44 | , but as we move in this , we often in the past have |
|
| 134:49 | gotten a lot of poor data and stuff that cost a lot of |
|
| 134:53 | I actually sent the wells, I in the cast in secret to make |
|
| 134:56 | that it didn't have to, I figure out what the age of the |
|
| 135:00 | were because we were, we were part of our agreement was to drill |
|
| 135:06 | a certain horizon that I could identify with, with fossils without doing it |
|
| 135:12 | . Um And well, they drilled I got out there ended up having |
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| 135:19 | to uh by the time they settled , it was an $8 million task |
|
| 135:24 | get uh a good core out of out of that section to prove that |
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| 135:28 | reached the uh their contract uh interval they had to penetrate according to the |
|
| 135:37 | keeps popping in and out of. uh but what's happening right now |
|
| 135:44 | with unconventional and uh also uh and seismic is starting to get really good |
|
| 135:52 | here uh with four D stuff, four dimensional stuff. In other |
|
| 135:57 | they have the 3d plus plus time on there. So you can see |
|
| 136:03 | thing, dynamic, things changing in reservoir. Uh But geologists are starting |
|
| 136:08 | do more and more of the work here. But in the past, |
|
| 136:12 | was really heavy up on this end geological effort and uh lighter on this |
|
| 136:18 | . And I always found it is of strange that where all the data |
|
| 136:23 | we weren't, we weren't using Ok. Um The diff different types |
|
| 136:31 | uh things that we use, of , are core sidewalk forest cuttings, |
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| 136:35 | line logs, you know, And uh there's even uh things that |
|
| 136:41 | can do with seismic that help us um depositional faces now on a, |
|
| 136:47 | a um on the horizon and that of thing. So it's really uh |
|
| 136:53 | a, a really more powerful tool though it is, it is a |
|
| 136:56 | of remote sensing. Uh the imaging , is, is just getting absolutely |
|
| 137:02 | and uh probably will get a whole better while we do the work. |
|
| 137:07 | um and then of course, uh this part, um when you get |
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| 137:18 | to here, all of these tools we, we get very little of |
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| 137:22 | in the top and uh we start pick up as we go into appraisal |
|
| 137:26 | um in production. And what do think happens within conventions? What sorts |
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| 137:35 | tools do you think we look at ? It gets a little tougher to |
|
| 137:42 | some of these things because some of things require, require uh it helps |
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| 137:46 | have vertical. So um a lot this stuff goes on in unconventional before |
|
| 137:54 | uh often before we in an area we're gonna do later. Rocky. |
|
| 138:08 | Yeah, that from you get that the cuttings. We get a whole |
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| 138:11 | of things from the cuttings, from cuttings. We can get, uh |
|
| 138:14 | we can do Rocky Bell and some the gens we can, you |
|
| 138:19 | we can, we, uh if can pull some of the organic stuff |
|
| 138:24 | , we can, we can do with it. If we, if |
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| 138:26 | get oil, we can do you know, we can uh do |
|
| 138:29 | lot of things with that. But , but uh cos inside for |
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| 138:34 | we can do it with cuttings. a little bit more difficult uh |
|
| 138:38 | with all those sorts of things. uh we do, we have a |
|
| 138:42 | done uh in terms of the analysis these different things, the best tool |
|
| 138:47 | a geologist that is work as you see, sedimentary structures. Sidewalk courses |
|
| 138:52 | good too because you can't see. , and you know exactly where it |
|
| 138:56 | from. They have a little bit a uh uh mud lining to parts |
|
| 139:02 | it. But, uh, that's from a place to cuttings, you |
|
| 139:05 | to calculate, uh, the return that you get the cuttings to figure |
|
| 139:10 | exactly where it is. And I've with, in the industry, I've |
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| 139:13 | with cuttings a lot and quite often really, really good. Sometimes the |
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| 139:19 | , uh, sometimes you almost have calibrate the cores with the cuttings because |
|
| 139:24 | do like a 30 ft four. , uh, some of these ones |
|
| 139:28 | they brought the weight on it. , so stuff and they actually 34 |
|
| 139:38 | up 10 ft and then figure out part of the 10 ft did you |
|
| 139:41 | ? 20 ft or with the 30 ? And, um, I, |
|
| 139:46 | have done stuff actually in the field Splints Spon bos and stuff like |
|
| 139:50 | Uh, it's not on this list something that I've used when I did |
|
| 139:54 | dissertation was, uh, os with places for doing the foundation course and |
|
| 140:00 | . And that can actually bring that for foundations. But you throw this |
|
| 140:05 | in, in the ground and it reports through, depending on the |
|
| 140:09 | of the rock. It reports through . You pull the section up and |
|
| 140:13 | it. You just have to take line off of it, but the |
|
| 140:17 | just goes down there. So go by feet, 5 ft, you |
|
| 140:24 | in another 10 and I say you a really good uh in situ uh |
|
| 140:31 | at uh what's going on. So a lot of stuff like that that |
|
| 140:34 | can do. We'll, we'll talk some of this data in more detail |
|
| 140:41 | you can get like, oh, know. And you can get an |
|
| 140:48 | lot out of it. Yeah. , and, and that, and |
|
| 140:51 | calculating the lag time is, is because I, I've looked at, |
|
| 140:56 | know, samples that are almost closer than you should. And uh you |
|
| 141:01 | , you, you, you have always realize that, you know, |
|
| 141:04 | take a sample, this represents what at that point uh in time over |
|
| 141:10 | interval. It was never just a getting the uh the absolute point of |
|
| 141:15 | sidewalk for and the floors is, a really good thing. Uh |
|
| 141:19 | but that's really expensive. Cars are expensive in uh in, in soft |
|
| 141:26 | like in the Gulf of Mexico when worked on a sidewalk courses weren't too |
|
| 141:29 | because, because you didn't have to the little um thing that would uh |
|
| 141:35 | into the rock that just uh had charge on it. So it's like |
|
| 141:39 | like a, an old uh 35 film jar that would pop in there |
|
| 141:44 | you'd pull it out. Sometimes the is in there, sometimes it's |
|
| 141:48 | but you might have a, a of 35 or something. And uh |
|
| 141:53 | you know, 60 70 80% of would come up with something in them |
|
| 141:57 | then you could use that. So, uh I've already said this |
|
| 142:05 | I probably don't need to say it . But, you know, the |
|
| 142:09 | marks is, is why the focus there because uh exploration was where we |
|
| 142:14 | a lot of money. And uh nowadays, uh we're doing more of |
|
| 142:19 | appraisal and production and development areas and what companies like hi do. And |
|
| 142:25 | a lot of companies similar to this the North Sea and some of these |
|
| 142:29 | places, there's, there's a huge of opportunity in, in the Gulf |
|
| 142:33 | Mexico on the shelf because a lot the big oil companies have kind of |
|
| 142:37 | away from the shell and uh and just around South Marshall and 1 28 |
|
| 142:43 | know there's huge pockets of oil that one's drilled yet. But, uh |
|
| 142:50 | , you know, it's too much and who could use an extra million |
|
| 142:56 | anyway. You know, if you me billion, I'll, I'll get |
|
| 143:00 | it. But anyway, um and they'll take all the money. |
|
| 143:06 | um uh so the big expenses in past has been this uh recently because |
|
| 143:12 | gone to a lot of uh unconventional um uh offshore seismic activity is |
|
| 143:21 | or uh expiration is drop off. lot of the seismic companies are having |
|
| 143:26 | very difficult time getting, getting a of surveys going and whatnot. But |
|
| 143:30 | think it's gonna pick up, here in the near future, |
|
| 143:33 | for a number of areas and of , the surname, one, certainly |
|
| 143:39 | one of them where they're gonna be a lot of seismic in the future |
|
| 143:43 | they've already done quite a bit. , uh, the thing is |
|
| 143:47 | the minute you, uh, a of times too, they'll do spec |
|
| 143:51 | and they'll, they'll go out there two D or maybe um some uh |
|
| 143:57 | than uh robust 3D data to sort find out if it's worth spending the |
|
| 144:03 | . Once they find out it's worth the money, then they start |
|
| 144:06 | I uh one of the projects I in, in uh the North Sea |
|
| 144:09 | the chalk fields. Uh we, were able to show them that they |
|
| 144:13 | missing uh 400 million barrels of And uh that gave them the incentive |
|
| 144:21 | uh put ocean bottom uh seismic seismometers uh O BS or, or uh |
|
| 144:29 | they call them the in the. So they could do uh shear waves |
|
| 144:33 | on top of uh um of the waves because uh uh uh what do |
|
| 144:40 | find, what you find in a of places where there's a lot of |
|
| 144:43 | is, you have gas clouds. you have gas clouds coming up in |
|
| 144:46 | talks, you're no exception. Or have uh gas seeping out of the |
|
| 144:53 | , creates a site where it really difficult and, um, almost |
|
| 145:00 | I ever did a lot of technical it was a job the size, |
|
| 145:04 | didn't work as well. Uh, go to a talk, you're gonna |
|
| 145:09 | only the best stuff, right? , $400 of it has $4 million |
|
| 145:22 | , boy. Go ahead, You found 400 extra million barrels of |
|
| 145:28 | in a, in a, in field in it. How do you |
|
| 145:31 | , excuse me? How did you make it? Uh, we got |
|
| 145:38 | and we figured out what the superiority . We realized that, you |
|
| 145:47 | there was a lot of, a lot of samples and there wasn't |
|
| 145:51 | new software just looking at samples and better correlations and figuring out what size |
|
| 145:58 | he didn't see where the gas But uh, so they had, |
|
| 146:02 | could almost see nothing. And when , when you get, uh, |
|
| 146:06 | you do the Jurassic in the North , which is well below the FTA |
|
| 146:11 | , when you start looking at the , a lot of that energy that |
|
| 146:14 | would wanna use to see sands. can't, it doesn't work. |
|
| 146:22 | this, this was looking at samples figuring out the stray with geology that |
|
| 146:30 | , they're still doing it, they're doing it. You can't, you |
|
| 146:34 | get energy through, through gas are about to. Well, I, |
|
| 146:43 | show you what gas clouds look at you can see. Yeah, |
|
| 146:46 | it's not something you can process uh, if you, if, |
|
| 146:51 | what they did do was they put BS on the floor, it's just |
|
| 146:56 | expensive. But when they put O on the floor, they could use |
|
| 146:59 | waves and they could see through the clouds. So now they can see |
|
| 147:03 | the gas clouds and they found another million barrels when they did that and |
|
| 147:10 | use software to do that. Um So, uh what a lot |
|
| 147:22 | geologists do, uh when we get no conven conventional is they spend a |
|
| 147:27 | of time geo the, and uh also uh a thing called bios steering |
|
| 147:33 | I'll explain that to you in a lecture. But, uh but right |
|
| 147:37 | they, they do GE steering a and again, ge steering works pretty |
|
| 147:42 | and, and it's gotten to be pretty good science, but it's still |
|
| 147:46 | because as you can imagine, uh a couple of uh inherent problems. |
|
| 147:56 | , if you look at a very products go like this, the tools |
|
| 148:03 | down and the tools, tools actually out this week and uh what, |
|
| 148:10 | they're measuring is this out away from wealth. It's not in front of |
|
| 148:15 | wealth or it's way, way. when you, um when you go |
|
| 148:22 | in a lateral, your tools are doing this. And uh and so |
|
| 148:31 | between these layers, unless you have layers, vertical. Uh it's, |
|
| 148:36 | really hard to, they don't have on it. You could have, |
|
| 148:39 | could have, you look for a of spices like this, but you're |
|
| 148:47 | be drilling in here. How do know if you're in here? This |
|
| 148:52 | where you want to be uh because structure goes like this and we're gonna |
|
| 148:58 | into the sand and when we turn anything like that or whatever, um |
|
| 149:02 | very difficult actually seeing with the tools have with now, you know, |
|
| 149:12 | the sensors sets out in this direction that's just the way it is, |
|
| 149:17 | know, they, but uh they out these fields, you can go |
|
| 149:24 | and farther out in that house. then when you come along and you |
|
| 149:28 | , you're starting, you can characterize region uh type of uh and uh |
|
| 149:44 | of them better focus so that you get to draw the kidney this rather |
|
| 149:52 | just they even. So when you on the bus, you know, |
|
| 149:59 | taking into and everything that's in that . So, you know, it |
|
| 150:03 | really amazing that you're, you're looking each one. When you're, when |
|
| 150:08 | crossing layers, you become some more and uh it can be very confusing |
|
| 150:17 | um and, and it, it always work, you know, one |
|
| 150:20 | the things um we all wait until get the bio before I talk |
|
| 150:27 | OK. Uh Then there's Um Another that, that they work on is |
|
| 150:35 | on higher volumes, higher production One of the things that it did |
|
| 150:39 | unconventional geologist says is that they know have a, that the reservoir was |
|
| 150:45 | source rock and the source rock produced lot of oil. So a lot |
|
| 150:48 | the things that we do in front their aspiration. We're trying to figure |
|
| 150:52 | if we have a source, we're to figure out if we have |
|
| 150:55 | have a reservoir rock. Uh you already know it's a pro that |
|
| 151:00 | . It's a pro it's a proven of the technology that we're using it |
|
| 151:04 | actually extract the oil uh from something very, very tight. And of |
|
| 151:10 | , uh laterals prove that hydrofracking, course, uh uh allows you to |
|
| 151:16 | photo channels into the formation away from board. And uh and it also |
|
| 151:24 | the surface area on. We The big advantage of that is I |
|
| 151:29 | 300 I see it here and here I had 300 times the comforts |
|
| 151:35 | that, of that uh production jacket whatever the, the excuse me, |
|
| 151:41 | uh the production line. And um that's all you have. But when |
|
| 151:47 | um when you have something that's five long, that surface area now becomes |
|
| 151:53 | miles instead of three on the on circumstances and then to further enhance |
|
| 152:00 | give you hydro you fracture and uh sand in the hole and pop it |
|
| 152:07 | so that you can have more channels that your surface area might become that |
|
| 152:12 | . Plus this surface area too. the surface area is exposed with a |
|
| 152:18 | differential and that's why, but it draw for very long and very far |
|
| 152:32 | . Ok. Um So in, frontier, regular frontier, you |
|
| 152:39 | it's, it's a very different Uh Is it a, is it |
|
| 152:42 | big one of the things is uh want to know if the uh potential |
|
| 152:51 | is gonna be large, uh The basin type has something to do with |
|
| 152:56 | where your depot centers has something to with this. Uh what types of |
|
| 153:01 | you have and uh and size is in work. And uh so here |
|
| 153:07 | looking at some of these things, have any structure or not. Uh |
|
| 153:11 | when we would get uh still do , we get, you know, |
|
| 153:14 | of your two D size lines you're some uh your view of an |
|
| 153:19 | one of the things that you look or any types of things that look |
|
| 153:24 | fracturing and stuff like that, things can, can create seals and things |
|
| 153:29 | can create volumes. Uh The other is, doesn't have any or for |
|
| 153:35 | , you're not gonna have a rest if you don't have a charge, |
|
| 153:40 | ? So that's really important. Another is how the organics been cooked. |
|
| 153:46 | , when you're doing frontier and you wanna make sure all these elements |
|
| 153:50 | a um of a uh petroleum system exist in that basin you're working. |
|
| 154:00 | , uh your books from the North , this is from the book and |
|
| 154:04 | it's not in color, but the is a little bit better from the |
|
| 154:08 | edition than it is from the And, uh, and here you |
|
| 154:11 | see, um uh all of those come into play here in terms of |
|
| 154:19 | we might have potential for charged reservoirs we could produce oil and gas. |
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| 154:26 | just take a quick look at Does anybody have any idea? You |
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| 154:29 | had structural geology? Does anybody have idea what type of basin this |
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| 154:38 | Excuse me, how many think it's Riff base? Does it say it's |
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| 154:50 | Riff basin on it? Raise your if you think it's a Riff |
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| 154:59 | Ok. Stephanie didn't take the You were, oh, you were |
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| 155:03 | . Yeah. Yeah, she, half raised her hand. Go |
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| 155:06 | You're right. It's a Riff Ok. So what you're looking at |
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| 155:13 | particular type of basin because of because of the way it's formed and |
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| 155:18 | evolution creates a lot of different things here uh that are parts of the |
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| 155:26 | system and there is a rift. excuse me, that's a reservoir, |
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| 155:30 | reservoir in the reservoir, here's a . Uh But just looking at this |
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| 155:39 | um what do you, what kind reservoir do you think that is this |
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| 155:51 | right here you haven't had sequences Mhm. Ok. Uh What, |
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| 156:12 | type of uh sediments do you think in this, this particular reservoir |
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| 156:17 | What, what uh I'll give you . What is it? Yes. |
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| 156:26 | That's good. Every, every everything that they learned to build the |
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| 156:34 | class except for Stephanie who wasn't in , everything you learn to build a |
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| 156:38 | . Let me take just to his . Yeah, that, that's what |
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| 157:00 | getting at. Where is it With a T A already gave it |
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| 157:06 | . If you listen, I didn't . OK. Uh Here's, this |
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| 157:11 | a rip. What's really common in basins is when they, when you |
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| 157:14 | that rifting and it's active. Um it's this end, actually pops up |
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| 157:22 | . So you get a mountain on side and a depression on the other |
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| 157:26 | . You had a sequence geography. would know you're creating something called the |
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| 157:30 | space here for sediments on this side you're popping this up in the |
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| 157:35 | What happens to rock when they pop in the air in the end? |
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| 157:44 | OK. And uh yes, coarse stuff comes flying down on and the |
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| 157:49 | sands in the North Sea look just this. Uh If you, if |
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| 157:53 | had a nice seismic line here, see these big fan and that coming |
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| 157:57 | off. There's an uplift, there's uplift. Uh right where the South |
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| 158:03 | Robin and the outer go together and there at that junction in the Central |
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| 158:08 | down here, it's a triple junction you get tons and tons of sediment |
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| 158:13 | off the high here into that. you go to the East African |
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| 158:18 | uh you see the same kind of , one side of the of the |
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| 158:21 | rip lakes will pop up and you sediments pouring into that river face. |
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| 158:27 | uh when this was a rift, was all the way up here is |
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| 158:32 | a lot higher. It wasn't, wasn't sagging like this because the rip |
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| 158:36 | caused by the thermal uplift underneath But over the millions of years, |
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| 158:41 | taken for this to develop, uh cooled and so the um the pre |
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| 158:47 | rift and then the Sin Rift uh uh sagged underneath it and the postscript |
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| 158:55 | covered it up like it is. , in other words, started to |
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| 158:58 | in, you can see this one pretty much the same fitness right after |
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| 159:03 | thermal subit was in. So here seeing gets thicker here. There's more |
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| 159:10 | subsidence in the middle. A little more here, a little bit |
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| 159:13 | It's standing on the edges here But when, when this first these |
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| 159:18 | layers were laid down, um in lower Cretaceous and upper Cretaceous, you |
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| 159:23 | have seen um uh something that looked like flatline beds. But but |
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| 159:30 | as you know, it was up this and then it went like this |
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| 159:36 | , this is what you do in of your exploration. You look at |
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| 159:38 | basin, the basic style and that style will give you a hint as |
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| 159:43 | what kind of reservoir rocks you could . But it isn't all one. |
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| 159:47 | a reservoir rock in a pre reservoir rift, here's a reservoir route in |
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| 159:55 | place. Ok. So the whole of that particular type of basin creates |
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| 160:03 | areas where there's accommodation space and there's somewhere in deposition. What do these |
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| 160:10 | look like? Well, this the dunes are a huge feature. |
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| 160:23 | it's not a but, but you of have an idea, you're getting |
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| 160:29 | to it. So nobody talked about do you call these things have |
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| 160:39 | I'm, I'm gonna give you a . It's not cross bet. |
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| 160:51 | it's, it's a cross betting. betting would be, oh, there's |
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| 161:01 | right there. Such a small scale can't see with this. Is it |
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| 161:08 | Clio forms and these, these and , and I don't know if you |
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| 161:12 | , but here's one that comes out , here's another one that pros out |
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| 161:18 | this direction. Here's another one that out in this direction. Here's another |
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| 161:22 | that prograde out in this direction. , if I tell you that sediments |
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| 161:27 | pro grading out into the basin where the sandstone from in, in these |
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| 161:33 | of again, you since you don't what a uniform is, you |
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| 161:37 | it's completed, but the final forms the Refiners that you see, like |
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| 161:42 | have the kind of forms. But between the, this reflector is the |
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| 161:51 | of form, but the rock in is called the what? I don't |
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| 162:00 | if this is what he does. uh, but you know, when |
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| 162:05 | , when you take his class, might want to ask him if he |
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| 162:08 | what the climate is or better I asked them to point out the |
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| 162:13 | of them talking about. So, know, if you find a |
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| 162:19 | you know, it's, it's I think it's from the latter could |
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| 162:22 | the but uh either way, what uh basically OK. So it's |
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| 162:29 | so it's an in mind thing and are the forms showing you that there's |
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| 162:37 | sedimentary rocks in here and the things there are kind of. So, |
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| 162:53 | , it's exciting data and you see kind of them, everybody gets |
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| 162:58 | OK? Sometimes the climates are so , you can't even see them in |
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| 163:03 | . And that's when a high resolution up a million dollar help. You |
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| 163:09 | , you can see. OK. what do you think the YESES |
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| 163:19 | those are source box sitting kind of on top of the uh the Sin |
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| 163:27 | . Uh That's the Kim Ridge clay the north and uh there's several layers |
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| 163:34 | the Cambridge clay and uh OK, a, there's actually two tops to |
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| 163:43 | Kim riding and a lot of people know why. And so a lot |
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| 163:47 | uh a stray in the top of Jurassic and anything across the Cretaceous Jurassic |
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| 163:53 | is awfully often uh highly confounded by fact that there's a huge, there's |
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| 163:59 | huge um breaking this boundary Strat breaking the way across the, in our |
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| 164:08 | and in the central at the. . So these are source rocks. |
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| 164:16 | uh what do you think this the is for? Hm. Right. |
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| 164:29 | . So, uh and uh they , they use the C for cat |
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| 164:34 | because because if they used the s wouldn't know the difference between the rock |
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| 164:37 | the cup. And so those are of the most important elements, the |
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| 164:43 | important elements. Uh You know, thing is that, wow, that |
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| 164:51 | source rocks have matured and also that migration, that migration to charge a |
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| 165:00 | thing here, you have a source that's right next to a reservoir |
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| 165:05 | Here you have a source rock that's underneath oil goes uphill. Uh Here |
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| 165:10 | have a source rock that could be things up here. And uh this |
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| 165:14 | a world class. So source rock Cambridge play, it's often 8% toc |
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| 165:19 | the time or better. Uh It's , it's a really amazing marine source |
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| 165:24 | . It's not as good as a marine source rock in terms of to |
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| 165:28 | , but it's, uh, it's good for a marine source rock. |
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| 165:36 | . So these are some of the that we look at and we |
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| 165:39 | uh to find in frontier, in frontier. Um, and one of |
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| 165:47 | , the things that's important to remember , you know, when, when |
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| 165:50 | look at UN conventions, what we're is coming along looking for one of |
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| 165:55 | source rocks that we know has, has yes, um, expelled a |
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| 166:03 | of oil. But at the same , there's a lot of oil stuff |
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| 166:06 | there's some need to go hold create a huge surface area so we |
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| 166:11 | rain. And so the risk of oil and gas in an UN confessional |
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| 166:17 | , is very low, but the price is small, each well |
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| 166:20 | much smaller. So, you you might spend, um, 5 |
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| 166:26 | million or even more on the Uh But you might not get much |
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| 166:31 | than that pack of oil. uh, it's sometimes it's, the |
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| 166:34 | is very slim. It's not like one well and being able to |
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| 166:41 | um, say a good million dollars a million barrels of oil out of |
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| 166:47 | . Well, uh you're not you're not gonna run into that. |
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| 166:50 | One of the plays that we they had one exploration well, and |
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| 166:55 | to help pay for the exploration I was in a country that made |
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| 166:59 | difficult to uh to make a So they, they were allowed to |
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| 167:03 | a test and dispose of the oil came out of the test. Of |
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| 167:08 | , they sold it. Uh but , they produced over a million barrels |
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| 167:12 | of, out of the initial exploration , uh and ran a test that |
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| 167:17 | kept going for a while just to sure they understood the flow rate. |
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| 167:25 | . So the next kinds of things you need to do are uh risk |
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| 167:31 | . Once you know, there's something , you have to worry about where |
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| 167:34 | infrastructure is or not, you have worry about whether you have access to |
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| 167:39 | . You have, do I have license to get a license? Um |
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| 167:44 | it shallow enough? But if you one or is it shallow enough |
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| 167:48 | you know, we have to have to technological, what else do we |
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| 167:54 | to worry about? How can we that into an economic resource? What |
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| 168:01 | things that you have to do? really an important thing when you do |
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| 168:11 | it, make it or break it chilly you. Uh Well, oil |
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| 168:21 | uh affects everybody. So yeah, another thing uh like uh the more |
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| 168:29 | it is to get out of the , the more important it is, |
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| 168:31 | example, uh when I was a in South Marshal in 1 28. |
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| 168:37 | , I bet our, uh, costs per barrel or less than probably |
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| 168:43 | than $2. Uh, if you to a conventional, well, |
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| 168:50 | one of the students that did a worked for, did, did the |
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| 168:55 | for companies. Uh, we went and you realize, and based on |
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| 169:01 | cost cost of drilling the well cracking well, and disposing of what of |
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| 169:07 | oil to be, uh, the water. Um, the most part |
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| 169:14 | needed to know. Yes, to $70 a barrel for oil sales to |
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| 169:23 | it. Yeah. Uh, right, we're right there right now |
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| 169:28 | . So some of them as well could start having problems. But there |
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| 169:32 | companies, for example, like um, it had a lot of |
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| 169:40 | , well, legacy a increase in Permian basin where they didn't give up |
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| 169:44 | rights. They didn't do anything with but sitting there and all of a |
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| 169:47 | it was, yeah. So they , they basically earn enough money to |
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| 169:55 | for the rights, uh, Now they, now they're getting |
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| 170:00 | much more oil out of the ground that right there could drop, cost |
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| 170:05 | to $20 barrel. Um, so becomes very fun. But I'm really |
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| 170:13 | another big. Was it? Yeah. What else is really important |
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| 170:22 | people overseas? And sometimes it can important and even in the US politics |
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| 170:34 | our political stability and uh some countries civil wars going on. Uh Some |
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| 170:42 | , once you start producing, they um raising the taxes on the lifting |
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| 170:48 | . They find out that they're making money but they live in a little |
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| 170:52 | more. So you figure out a to get more out at the best |
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| 170:57 | . They raise the tax again, , that's instability. Those are some |
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| 171:03 | the things that are instable. Another even in the US, um Democratic |
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| 171:10 | for Obama does not want to be for exploration. DP. Just blew |
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| 171:18 | for everybody. I mean, literally it for everybody. And uh and |
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| 171:23 | that was all shut in and all the offshore really was shut in for |
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| 171:27 | long period of time. And uh that's, that's political too, but |
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| 171:33 | seems to be based on uh poor and one set of one set of |
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| 171:42 | . Oh, it never came out the uh CEO at the time of |
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| 171:47 | Macondo blowout. Hey, uh lead conversation with an important director and his |
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| 171:57 | his chief to get off that And then there's a whole bunch of |
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| 172:03 | I can't say get off that, because um, they were paying close |
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| 172:09 | a million dollars a day just to a city and uh he wanted us |
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| 172:13 | get and, um, that expense have been nothing but, and it |
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| 172:20 | , it injured the entire industry. uh, unfortunately, it's something I |
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| 172:25 | BP. Never. I don't ever paid enough for because, because |
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| 172:29 | didn't just hurt, um, they hurt the whole oil industry when |
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| 172:35 | did that. And I, I the oil industry was just a little |
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| 172:39 | too sympathetic in some cases, but do know a lot of people that |
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| 172:42 | in the industry, like me, were really horrified when they found out |
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| 172:47 | many steps they, they shortcutted to that rig moved. It was almost |
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| 172:52 | uh a a management dictate, made forget everything they were taught, especially |
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| 172:58 | safety. OK. We'll do a more slides and get out of |
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| 173:06 | Um This is a whole list of main concerns and exploration exploitation and I |
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| 173:12 | read them again like I just But uh all of these things become |
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| 173:17 | important at, at finer and finer . And if you think about |
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| 173:21 | uh event exploration starts from outside the , you know, we're trying to |
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| 173:28 | out what's in that base and from outside and we try to get the |
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| 173:33 | picture of it, you know, are, what are its foundings begin |
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| 173:37 | the boundaries, how the rocks popping , dropping down, how sediment building |
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| 173:42 | the combination space, all that kind thing. So we're trying to figure |
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| 173:46 | how that base is developed and while was developing, how it could have |
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| 173:50 | developed the rescue and how that reserve have had an appropriate seal and how |
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| 173:55 | could have been in a precision to , um, oil could have migrated |
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| 174:00 | it and made it to the So all these things become more and |
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| 174:04 | important. And again, when we're an unconventional, we skip that whole |
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| 174:09 | because we know exactly what it but we really need to do an |
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| 174:12 | convention to figure out what the, out if there's something else. |
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| 174:17 | you know, we always focus on main product and a lot of these |
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| 174:22 | , uh, they're, they're looking secondary source products and stuff like that |
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| 174:25 | actually making money producing them as And if you look at the eagle |
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| 174:30 | , there's, um, some tight reservoirs, the chalk above it, |
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| 174:36 | , that with the right approach, , you don't need to bracket because |
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| 174:40 | has a lot of natural fraction. there are some reservoirs that produce with |
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| 174:45 | shallow wells and relatively low cost without for hydrofracking. And you still get |
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| 174:50 | , uh, oil and gas out the ground with an extended lateral. |
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| 175:00 | . And, uh, will take little bit, let's see, a |
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| 175:09 | bit more. Look at this. , I think it's time to take |
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| 175:11 | break. It's almost six o'clock. guys looked hard. You finally woke |
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| 175:16 | , which is good. You Ok. Ok. And, |
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| 175:24 | um, I'm glad everybody was I'll see you bright and early tomorrow |
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| 175:27 | 8 30 you gonna start at 8 when did you do the structural |
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| 175:33 | Hey, yeah, we, we're scheduled at eight but I, but |
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| 175:38 | really hard for a lot of Uh, I think the only good |
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| 175:42 | about coming in on Saturday is the not bad and almost, no matter |
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| 175:47 | we live, we can get here watch out for wherever the road closings |
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| 175:51 | on the weekend. Uh, so don't get too late and don't |
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| 175:55 | I had a student one time uh, got a ticket on the |
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| 175:59 | at class and he went, he to blame it on me. And |
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| 176:03 | like, and, uh, I , just don't get in trouble. |
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| 176:12 | . And then, then you don't to be upset with me for asking |
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| 176:14 | to come here on set. All . Stop the |
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