| 00:02 | Mhm Okay, I don't know why slide presentation always starts on the second |
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| 00:11 | , but there you have it. So this is the class and I |
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| 00:17 | everybody that's here is supposed to be and uh here's my office phone |
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| 00:25 | I'm still only in the office maybe days a week, but I'm going |
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| 00:29 | try to be in there more often I'll go over my office hours. |
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| 00:36 | one thing I just want to point here is that Uh huh, it's |
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| 00:40 | not going to be a big problem there's only three people in the class |
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| 00:44 | now, but I will tell you right before class if if we're face |
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| 00:52 | face and it's right before class, not a good time to run up |
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| 00:55 | me and ask a question about something and the reason is because I'm trying |
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| 01:01 | get things set up and get ready get going and also um there's plenty |
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| 01:07 | time, not during class time to me by email or or leave a |
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| 01:12 | message and I can call you back we can communicate by cell phones if |
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| 01:18 | and that sort of thing. So very open to talking to everybody, |
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| 01:22 | am, I am busy a lot times, but but if you're having |
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| 01:28 | getting ahold of me as fast as want to hear from me, just |
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| 01:31 | ahead and nag me because that's that's way to get, get my attention |
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| 01:37 | just keep trying until, until you a hold of me and I'll try |
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| 01:41 | hard not to make you wait too . And sometimes I respond quickly because |
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| 01:46 | just happen to be looking at my when I get an email request. |
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| 01:52 | anyway, um having said all these are the class times and this |
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| 01:59 | something that normally has to be officially uh in the syllabus. But like |
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| 02:07 | said, I'm gonna send you the form, I'll post it online and |
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| 02:14 | I'll refer you to this file for lot of the the real the content |
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| 02:22 | that's actually specific to this class. the other stuff that's in our syllabus |
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| 02:27 | a lot of rules that we find students these days don't tend to look |
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| 02:33 | a read. And so we put of the critical ones in there in |
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| 02:38 | , you know, something happens in future. And uh it talks about |
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| 02:44 | issues and and just all sorts of and late papers and the it has |
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| 02:52 | entire N. S. M. Science and Mathematics code of honor and |
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| 02:58 | academic honesty for the university policy, I'm kind of glad to see. |
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| 03:04 | had one uh, at the University Houston when I was a masters student |
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| 03:09 | at south Carolina, they always had there. So that's an important thing |
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| 03:15 | that we have electronic things that we cut and paste a lot. It |
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| 03:21 | a good idea to keep an idea that. And if anybody has any |
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| 03:26 | on, on what plagiarism is, can always ask me and I'll be |
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| 03:30 | to kind of explain to you uh the, where the line is on |
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| 03:35 | fence in terms of crossing it and you might even notice that sometimes |
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| 03:45 | all the stuff that I use and , I try to have a reference |
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| 03:48 | it and sometimes it falls off or lost in an addition. So you |
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| 03:55 | just keep an eye on that and me know if, if you see |
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| 03:58 | that looks looks bad on my Okay, so we have the Fridays |
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| 04:03 | Saturdays, everybody okay with 8:30 tomorrow . Okay. And, and this |
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| 04:13 | uh one of the things that we're to do in this soft opening is |
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| 04:18 | much make sure it's face to face synchronous. So right now we're |
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| 04:23 | Hopefully we'll be face to face once start doing face to face, which |
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| 04:28 | plan on doing friday and the rest the weekends we will, we will |
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| 04:38 | be, I'll be also recording this uh for two reasons, one is |
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| 04:43 | that there is a record for you go back to and look at, |
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| 04:46 | help study. And the other reason I just want to make sure that |
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| 04:52 | we're doing this well enough to do have students that are totally online joining |
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| 05:00 | in this class while we have face face students. And I might even |
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| 05:06 | our ta to, to do this instead of face to face. Ah |
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| 05:12 | of the, one of the days we're doing um face to face, |
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| 05:19 | so that I have somebody that's actually student out of the class or at |
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| 05:23 | an observer outside the class and students the class. Okay, so the |
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| 05:31 | week, of course it's going to the class introduction. Then we're gonna |
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| 05:36 | , I'm going to spend a little of time on petroleum as a resource |
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| 05:40 | there's an exercise with that. Then going to talk about a lot of |
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| 05:46 | related to petroleum geology, that many you know them. But I remember |
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| 05:52 | some courses where uh the professor spent lot of time to make sure people |
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| 05:58 | what the terms meant because sometimes someone say a word and you think, |
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| 06:03 | know what it is, but you're sure or sometimes a term is used |
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| 06:09 | you're absolutely certain what it is, everybody else in the glass thinks it's |
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| 06:13 | else. So I like to to over terms every now and then. |
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| 06:19 | I hope it's not boring, but I think clarity is important. And |
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| 06:24 | other thing, the value chain, many of you are familiar with what |
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| 06:27 | value chain is. That was sort a buzz term that came up at |
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| 06:34 | turn of the century uh now, think everybody uh talks about workflows and |
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| 06:41 | have no idea what they're doing in workflow. But but the value chain |
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| 06:49 | is a way of having an understanding the entire petroleum system from pre discovery |
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| 06:56 | discovery ah to exploration of that particular through prospects, expansion of that particular |
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| 07:07 | system type within that area through exploitation all the way down to when we |
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| 07:15 | to remedial stuff in the production phase we're trying to squeeze as much oil |
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| 07:21 | gas out of the rocks as we . And that's sort of the whole |
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| 07:25 | chain. And uh there's parts of that are labor intensive, there's parts |
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| 07:32 | it that are money intensive and there parts of it that our prophet intensive |
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| 07:37 | of course there's no point in uh producing any kind of natural resources if |
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| 07:42 | can't make a profit. In that's part of the definition of what |
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| 07:45 | resources. Okay, then we're gonna talking a lot about reservoir rocks and |
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| 07:53 | we'll start looking really at face ends structure. Um I think mostly because |
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| 08:03 | this semester, you haven't had advanced . So, um, I think |
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| 08:07 | will help a little bit with but more than that, um I |
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| 08:13 | to put an oil twist to some concepts about basins and structure because actually |
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| 08:20 | basin ah with structures in it is the habitat of petroleum systems. I |
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| 08:28 | if you're going to look for a system. You need, you need |
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| 08:31 | look for a sedimentary basin and you hope their structures and those are usually |
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| 08:36 | first two things you look for. when you go in unconventional, the |
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| 08:45 | does isn't always as important because the is trapped in something that's basically a |
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| 08:54 | , graphic trap of sorts and even itself. But but basins and structures |
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| 09:01 | really important in terms of us actually for. Uh getting enough faith that |
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| 09:08 | enough of a petroleum system there to with. And then moving forward |
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| 09:15 | Okay then then we'll talk about logging and we'll have a logging exercise. |
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| 09:21 | anybody is working in industry, you find this a little bit rudimentary, |
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| 09:27 | I really wanna get students to look how you can kind of look at |
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| 09:32 | couple of different log types in a log sweet and make some rapid |
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| 09:40 | In other words, if you're working a company, I'm probably going to |
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| 09:43 | telling you to do what your boss been telling you not to do. |
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| 09:49 | I think it helps when you're looking data if without going pulling out calculators |
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| 09:58 | programs or or running it through If you can just even look at |
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| 10:02 | well and kind of get a, a sense of the magnitude say of |
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| 10:07 | a pay section without having a computer a petroleum engineer, reservoir engineer, |
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| 10:16 | you exactly what what is in Or even still a Petro physicist when |
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| 10:22 | was working as a development geologist, really was more like a reservoir |
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| 10:31 | but we were developing things that were , I did a lot of Petro |
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| 10:36 | stuff, even wrote programs to do physics, but But when it's 3:00 |
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| 10:43 | and you get data from a well somebody wants to know what it looks |
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| 10:48 | . It really helps if you don't to pull out a lot of computers |
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| 10:51 | stuff to to answer them on the right away. And another thing I |
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| 10:56 | point out too is when you're working industry, you get asked questions a |
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| 11:03 | of times and when, when you're a question, a question that you |
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| 11:08 | ask right away right back to them when do you need it? Because |
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| 11:12 | somebody needs it in an hour, better know a shortcut. If someone |
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| 11:19 | to know an answer in a you still need some shortcuts, but |
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| 11:24 | gonna have a little bit more time work on it. If they need |
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| 11:27 | in a week. Uh You might able to do some serious stuff. |
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| 11:33 | and as everyone knows though, when work with workstations, it can |
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| 11:37 | it can take weeks to get the data loaded into your, into your |
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| 11:42 | and I don't know if that's changed recently, but it takes quite a |
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| 11:47 | of time. Uh putting information into computer. Now, if any of |
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| 11:53 | have ever been a geo tech, have a head up, heads up |
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| 12:00 | a lot of professional geologists, they in to do the interpretation because you |
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| 12:06 | know a lot of the difficulties in datasets and pulling data together. Uh |
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| 12:13 | , it's probably, it would probably a better internship than than actually having |
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| 12:19 | give you uh the worst internship most of them are like this |
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| 12:25 | five or 6 really experienced guys pull bunch of data together to make it |
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| 12:30 | for you to prove that you know you're doing and it's kind of a |
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| 12:34 | thing to get you to do It's also a way for them to |
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| 12:38 | and see if you can actually do . But the point I'm trying to |
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| 12:42 | at is that it's sort of like problem is put on a silver platter |
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| 12:47 | when you're an exploration geologist, the problem is never given to you |
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| 12:56 | a silver platter. It's a big and you need to look for a |
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| 13:00 | of data and that's something you need think about all the time when you're |
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| 13:06 | the business. I think one of shortfalls that I see sometimes, and |
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| 13:13 | some of the better jobs is that lot of the geologists get relegated to |
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| 13:21 | drillers, which, which I think it's it's not a bad job, |
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| 13:27 | I think it's limited in terms of the amount of brain power and knowledge |
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| 13:32 | you need to use day to day it's very focused on one thing in |
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| 13:39 | area and most geologists and you as get trained in a very broad understanding |
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| 13:47 | many of these different aspects of the system and you'll see a lot of |
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| 13:53 | in this class. It's gonna it is going to be a survey |
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| 13:58 | . There are things that since I been working for more than a few |
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| 14:04 | , I know some things are out date it, but of course I |
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| 14:06 | the literature a lot and I talk people a lot about what they're doing |
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| 14:10 | and, and I think basically it's a lot of the same |
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| 14:15 | but we do put a lot of in computer software that it's very good |
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| 14:22 | making decisions based on what you give , whether or not you've given it |
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| 14:27 | right thing. There's another question. it helps to kind of have a |
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| 14:33 | of an analog understanding of a lot these processes, so that when the |
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| 14:39 | is off, you notice it before supervisor across the table from you notices |
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| 14:46 | and you show up with a good map, for example. Okay, |
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| 14:52 | , um, so I look at lot of different tools, uh, |
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| 14:56 | give you some hints on correlation. , I've been doing this exercise for |
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| 15:03 | a while and one of the things I find is that somewhere in oil |
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| 15:10 | , they've told geologists they can't correlate without it being in a workstation. |
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| 15:16 | um, and also that you can't faults without seismic and seismic does |
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| 15:25 | But most of the time when you're in a reservoir, there's a lot |
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| 15:29 | sub seismic level faults in barriers to , which compartmentalize the system that you |
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| 15:38 | , the reservoir that you have might , Um, 10 compartments as opposed |
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| 15:43 | two or 3 that you might see the major faults in the field. |
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| 15:49 | , um, it's really important to a handle on this and at least |
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| 15:54 | two to claw relate by slipping logs know exactly what it is. You |
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| 16:00 | be correlated. And one of the I think it's easy to have a |
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| 16:06 | issue here is just because it's always to try to correlate ferocity to paris |
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| 16:15 | . But what you really need to is correlated the right poorest section with |
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| 16:21 | right other poorest section. And another , uh, sequence photography. |
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| 16:27 | everyone in here is going to be it for the first time with johnny |
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| 16:31 | . So I do kind of a on it. And that little primer |
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| 16:37 | going to help everyone in terms you know, getting some of the |
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| 16:43 | sorted out before he starts talking to because Jonah is very, very good |
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| 16:50 | this. He's a very good instructor the way. And he tries to |
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| 16:55 | things simple but he knows about a of nuances that he'll never get to |
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| 17:00 | tell you. But, but he's an excellent professor. But uh I |
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| 17:06 | to uh not only go into the a little bit so that you |
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| 17:12 | the basics, but also we'll try point out different examples of when it's |
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| 17:19 | and I'll probably give you some really examples, things that I've done with |
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| 17:24 | photography and uh three D, two slices of three D. Seismic |
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| 17:32 | And, and so, you you'll see some of that kind of |
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| 17:38 | . The midterm will be the Will on the 3rd Friday and uh that |
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| 17:47 | cover whatever we get to. And like to do it first thing on |
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| 17:54 | because if it's any other time than first, the first few minutes of |
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| 17:57 | class, you you won't be paying to the class. It's just the |
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| 18:04 | it is and we are. Hopefully be face to face and everybody will |
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| 18:14 | there. If, if somebody can't there uh I'll have to figure out |
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| 18:20 | way to do face to face testing at the same time doing individual |
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| 18:25 | It might be something like you ty the class while I go to another |
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| 18:32 | and read it out to the students , that sort of thing. But |
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| 18:37 | are some of the things that I'm to sort out, not only with |
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| 18:41 | that you might have, for if one of you gets sick, |
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| 18:44 | wants to attend the test or whatever happens. Um then uh then |
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| 18:53 | have a way to do this and try to repeat it in a way |
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| 18:56 | works fairly for everybody. I was developmental geologist, I think appraisal is |
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| 19:05 | the most important part of all and I say that because development usually |
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| 19:13 | after, by the way, this the value chain here, there's a |
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| 19:18 | exploration, exploration and exploitation, then appraisal, then after that there's uh |
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| 19:28 | development and production, but I'm going list these when we go through it |
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| 19:32 | terms in a certain way to try make it a little bit more. |
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| 19:37 | of having six steps, I knock down to four steps by combining a |
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| 19:41 | of these because because I'm just kind thinking about the work processes that you |
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| 19:45 | in these different different things. You're development geologist, for example, you |
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| 19:50 | something very different from what a frontier ist does. You also do something |
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| 19:56 | different from someone who's, is doing drilling and GS steering and that sort |
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| 20:04 | thing. Okay, so I actually gone up to appraisal, three |
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| 20:11 | one kind of explains what it's all appraisal too, has to do a |
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| 20:15 | with the mapping of it and uh that sort of thing, and then |
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| 20:20 | love development and production together, uh reasons it will be obvious to, |
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| 20:26 | know, in the, in a minutes, I hope, and then |
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| 20:31 | resources at the end. Yeah. lot of students, I've had students |
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| 20:38 | , um, can they take a in unconventional resources? Well in this |
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| 20:44 | , this is petroleum geology as we through all of these things, All |
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| 20:48 | these ah these topics, I will mentioning how it applies to unconventional |
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| 20:57 | This is petroleum geology, it's not petroleum geology and it's not unconventional petroleum |
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| 21:04 | , it's petroleum geology. So we about conventional processes and unconventional processes all |
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| 21:11 | it. And I think, not all the professors get to those |
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| 21:17 | , but most of them do. know Bill to pray for those of |
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| 21:24 | that have had two originals, He's never worked in industry, but |
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| 21:29 | , but he describes what a reservoir in great detail and how reservoirs formed |
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| 21:33 | great detail. Whether he calls it reservoir or not. And uh and |
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| 21:40 | I think that's that's a good thing understanding actually the process by which a |
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| 21:48 | reservoir rock is formed helps people figure how to predict where they're going to |
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| 21:54 | based on a little bit of information we get from a few holes poked |
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| 21:58 | the ground and some seismic data. but there is a little extra stuff |
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| 22:08 | are really unique to unconventional resources that bring up in in that very last |
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| 22:14 | . And again, we can't cover of them because unconventional resources covers a |
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| 22:22 | of different types of things, not shale planets. Okay, so |
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| 22:30 | here's a guide. Has anybody gotten textbook yet? Okay. Um |
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| 22:42 | one of one of the things I trouble with the, with the schedule |
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| 22:48 | because six months ago I had a plan and uh through those six months |
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| 22:57 | professors kept changing when they were going be available. And so I ended |
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| 23:02 | with with a lot of versions of schedule and I had my textbook on |
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| 23:09 | the, on the schedule. I the last ones I sent, you |
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| 23:14 | have it. Maybe the first one sent you did have it, but |
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| 23:18 | don't think so now or you might gotten it, but and a lot |
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| 23:23 | the professors don't, don't share with what book they want and I'll be |
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| 23:28 | to get it out of them before show up by and large though, |
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| 23:33 | think ah The three professors that you coming, I don't really give you |
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| 23:39 | textbook. Howie has written several books on migration and he may not ask |
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| 23:45 | uh to get a textbook just on , but then again he might, |
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| 23:52 | I will get to the textbook in minute. And the reason I'm bringing |
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| 23:55 | up right now is because I think XYZ in its own chapter now. |
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| 24:03 | and I think it might be uh seven, but uh production and |
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| 24:10 | excuse me, production could be in and And it may actually be Chapter |
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| 24:16 | or Chapter nine. I have an copy and I got locked out of |
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| 24:22 | from my house but I can still it at at work and uh and |
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| 24:27 | should have it working here at home , so I'll probably correct that chapter |
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| 24:35 | in the future and this is the . Uh can everybody see this |
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| 24:42 | This is in the slides that you . It's a it's a really, |
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| 24:46 | a really good book. Um and I knew both of these guys many |
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| 24:53 | ago and they were part of a group of people that I work for |
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| 25:01 | and some other large oil companies in North Sea and they moved and I |
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| 25:08 | in Norway for a long time. lived there for a few years but |
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| 25:11 | worked on prospects and and uh exploration uh for probably 10 years in in |
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| 25:22 | North Sea. And the these guys up with a book that really I |
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| 25:28 | includes almost everything. And there's no that we could cover all the material |
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| 25:32 | the book, but we will be a lot of the material in the |
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| 25:37 | . And I showed you what some those chapters were. And the first |
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| 25:42 | that came out was Blackwell Press and don't know how familiar you are with |
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| 25:49 | , but Blackwell Press tends to have , very good content, but |
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| 25:55 | very poor graphics. Well Blackwall got . And uh and so now the |
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| 26:04 | in the second edition are a whole better than they were. Um some |
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| 26:09 | the slides that they couldn't release for publication I was able to get from |
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| 26:16 | louis because I knew pluess and uh well, in fact, before I |
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| 26:22 | teaching this, I had a consulting with him and uh but anyway, |
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| 26:31 | the graphics now a whole lot better I'm going to be phasing some of |
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| 26:35 | new graphics into this as I can the semester. So most of the |
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| 26:42 | sets that I'm giving you, I a lot of material that was in |
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| 26:45 | before, but they're but they're all to be uh revised at least a |
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| 26:50 | bit uh for each and every uh lecture that I give okay, |
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| 27:02 | here's something students like to focus on good reason and uh this is what |
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| 27:09 | decided to do um for you. some professors will give you one example |
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| 27:17 | it and the the thing that I about it, just a single final |
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| 27:20 | and nothing else to judge you by maybe class participation online. Class participation |
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| 27:27 | a little bit tough and but I tell everybody's still awake the way I |
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| 27:34 | this is there's a final exam in midterm and it says 40 to 30 |
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| 27:39 | . 40 slash 30 points, anybody to guess. I think if you've |
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| 27:44 | bios, fatigue graffiti from me, know how that works, anybody want |
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| 27:48 | guess what that means. So has in this class had bio strategic fee |
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| 27:57 | me? Okay. Who's Angela? . Okay. Okay. So can |
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| 28:06 | tell people what that means? Is depends on which one, which exam |
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| 28:12 | do better on. Exactly. If do best on the midterm, that |
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| 28:17 | worth 40 points. If you do on the final exam, that one's |
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| 28:23 | 40 points. And of course In opposite case it would be 30 |
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| 28:28 | So with your worst one, in case you would get Whatever it |
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| 28:36 | it's going to be 30 points instead court. Okay. Then you also |
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| 28:40 | , um, 30 points for graded . So 40 and 30 or 70 |
|
| 28:49 | 30 more Equals last time I checked . And although I'll let you guys |
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| 28:56 | as you get older, numbers change now and then to tries to plus |
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| 29:01 | tries to be five. I don't why. Uh, and more often |
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| 29:06 | not when it's taxes, When it's salary, 2-plus 2 often is |
|
| 29:14 | You may have noticed that, but be noticing more as you get |
|
| 29:19 | Um, anyway, um, there's to be three smaller ones, |
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| 29:24 | oil supply price, external controls and , there's going to be one on |
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| 29:32 | in one on correlation And then the 15.1. So each of these are |
|
| 29:38 | . The little ones are five. me get my cursor going here, |
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| 29:44 | my laser pointer. So these are point each and then this one is |
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| 29:48 | to be 15 where you're gonna map do the volume metrics on a on |
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| 29:54 | reservoir that I made up. So a lot of times I like to |
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| 30:01 | use real data but I found one about a reservoir and Angela, I |
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| 30:07 | know, I think you work for oil company, you probably know reservoir |
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| 30:11 | kind of, who knows? Um know, you have lots of numbers |
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| 30:16 | our sampling of something, the size a reservoir is just a really small |
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| 30:23 | of the rock that is actually making up. So even with Even with |
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| 30:28 | wells and two, three d. , we still don't know everything about |
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| 30:36 | rocks, three d volumes help a . But nevertheless all of those reflections |
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| 30:44 | that's what you're doing. Uh and amplitudes and whatnot every everything, all |
|
| 30:49 | attributes ah are impacted by highly variable of variables and three or four of |
|
| 31:00 | can gang up on you and change in terms of the type of response |
|
| 31:05 | you expect. So uh so to a long story short, I |
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| 31:12 | I didn't want to use a real because then I might never know exactly |
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| 31:17 | that reservoir was, but I made imaginary reservoir with a set ferocity |
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| 31:25 | I did what engineers used to do real reservoirs and they would decide they |
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| 31:29 | homogeneous all the way across the And so I did that. So |
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| 31:35 | this case when you work on there's no ifs buts or hands that |
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| 31:42 | change your number, there's there's one there And there's not two volumes and |
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| 31:47 | not well if there's a shell out here, it's a different volume. |
|
| 31:51 | all has to do with the art drawing contour lines, which computers are |
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| 31:58 | that good at all the time. uh and also exactly how that impacts |
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| 32:08 | of sort of the nature of how visualize in three dimensions, what this |
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| 32:15 | really looks like. And some people it spot on and other people uh |
|
| 32:24 | everything right except their concept of what reservoir might or might not be is |
|
| 32:31 | kind of off but at the same . And in their defense, so |
|
| 32:35 | possible in the real world that whatever came up with could have happened. |
|
| 32:41 | so aspects of the map like I don't I don't pick apart 1,000,000 |
|
| 32:48 | points on it, but I I do have a really well regimented |
|
| 32:53 | an objective way of evaluating how well do this. Now, one student |
|
| 32:57 | a capstone project a few years he took the data from these wells |
|
| 33:06 | he had four of the major workstation for mapping and figuring out reservoirs and |
|
| 33:15 | and uh The closest any one of four got was 25% of the actual |
|
| 33:22 | and this is kind of what I'm you is even when, even when |
|
| 33:26 | know exactly what it is up it's hard to get an algorithm to |
|
| 33:32 | matching the algorithm has been given given to make it think, you |
|
| 33:39 | that you might have closure because there's one well in the area, so |
|
| 33:43 | these little circles and stuff, we'll about that. And so uh I |
|
| 33:47 | it's really, really important two to an opportunity to do, to do |
|
| 33:54 | mapping exercise by hand as opposed to putting the data in in one of |
|
| 33:59 | algorithms and letting it work, there's wrong with that, accept it, |
|
| 34:06 | knowing when you, when you know front with the volume is many of |
|
| 34:10 | products cannot duplicate. Okay, and I kind of mentioned this already, |
|
| 34:19 | , this is going to be an of a lot of different concepts in |
|
| 34:24 | and uh I probably should say processes there, but for the most part |
|
| 34:28 | concepts in terms and and we're going be really focusing on this value change |
|
| 34:36 | how we go through the process of to discovery and then getting to full |
|
| 34:44 | and then in other words with tertiary quaternary recovery methods, trying to get |
|
| 34:52 | much as we can out of a born of course unconventional resources in terms |
|
| 34:58 | horizontal wells with hydro fracking and shale . Mm hmm, That's that's a |
|
| 35:06 | hi test version of trying to squeeze and gas out of a out of |
|
| 35:12 | tight rock. Okay. And these the course objectives and I don't know |
|
| 35:25 | I can see them all what's going here, let me just see if |
|
| 35:33 | slide is fix this real quick. I won't read all this because I've |
|
| 36:07 | of said all of this. Um I, one thing I do want |
|
| 36:12 | point out is I sort of the whole purpose of what I'm doing |
|
| 36:22 | that the book ah explains a lot these different processes of, of doing |
|
| 36:32 | exploration, exploration, exploitation, appraisal and production. And it also gives |
|
| 36:41 | from from the North Sea for the part, but other parts of the |
|
| 36:44 | , for example, on the first , I think it's still in the |
|
| 36:48 | edition, they give an example in exploration of the luau structure in china |
|
| 36:55 | the south china sea and sometimes called southeast. And uh I worked on |
|
| 37:05 | project with Amoco and in an area They had found nothing that was |
|
| 37:10 | we found two billion barrels of oil subsequent to To what was in the |
|
| 37:19 | in 2004. Uh they had tidbits how we found it. But I |
|
| 37:28 | worked with the same team years after was discovered. And so I can |
|
| 37:33 | how with with better seismic and they were able to image it a |
|
| 37:38 | better. So it kind of show a little bit of the whole process |
|
| 37:41 | some of these things and I'll be that in a number of of these |
|
| 37:46 | . In other words, I'll talk something that we do and then I'll |
|
| 37:49 | you examples of what we've done. . And they're just, you |
|
| 37:57 | I'll show it 2 - five If you were ever every single |
|
| 38:05 | petroleum geologists in the world, there'd millions of examples but we won't have |
|
| 38:10 | for that. Okay, so, , here's kind of what I wanted |
|
| 38:16 | to get at with terms and concepts here's the value chain and I like |
|
| 38:26 | divide it up this way. So not six steps but rather it's sort |
|
| 38:32 | for main steps because when I worked expiration and in production, um there's |
|
| 38:44 | handoff right here between this group and group. Yeah. Um people in |
|
| 38:56 | exploration, a lot of smaller companies do this, but the large companies |
|
| 39:03 | whole departments that would focus on frontier and they'd be doing global studies of |
|
| 39:09 | . Like I was in a um led a group that that focused on |
|
| 39:16 | customer bases all over the world, at Exxon mobil did that. He |
|
| 39:21 | a lot. I wasn't allowed to , but we found out some unique |
|
| 39:26 | of figuring out what lake basins we're likely to have significant hydrocarbon deposits |
|
| 39:34 | which ones were not just based on small samples. And it's to this |
|
| 39:41 | , I haven't seen anything that goes it. Anyway, exploration exploitation |
|
| 39:52 | this is the part where you start a, with actually a prospect. |
|
| 39:57 | has a lot to do with lease and trying to come up with a |
|
| 40:02 | evaluation of the area expiration. You're trying to zone in on where, |
|
| 40:09 | know, you think you have petroleum in this, this lease area that |
|
| 40:13 | got and you're trying to figure out structures where they occur. Uh, |
|
| 40:18 | call them prospects and, and then is if I find it here where |
|
| 40:25 | all surround me in this space. am I going to see a similar |
|
| 40:29 | system that I can drill for producing and sometimes it might even be in |
|
| 40:34 | same area that you just drilled And then appraisal is after you've, |
|
| 40:41 | drilled a um, and expiration and you've got a discovery, anybody |
|
| 40:50 | ever done anything in this industry knows , uh, with this guy and |
|
| 40:55 | guy I think is going to be . Oftentimes has nothing to do with |
|
| 41:00 | we find when we start drilling multiple to try to appraise the entire |
|
| 41:06 | In other words, what in the is here in reality? And you |
|
| 41:10 | to drill extra wells. And one the reasons why I, I |
|
| 41:13 | see that there's a big break right is because these guys are still to |
|
| 41:21 | certain extent uh limited in data and imagining where there might be a good |
|
| 41:30 | and uh, how things Our a lot of the examples that we |
|
| 41:35 | , for example, of even 3D work Really only come after we've drilled |
|
| 41:41 | lot of wells. And, and actually know what we're looking at in |
|
| 41:43 | 3D volume. And uh, you , there's a lot of hindsight validation |
|
| 41:50 | what we've seen with seismic, which a good thing because once you figure |
|
| 41:54 | out in a particular area, in strata graphic unit, it tends |
|
| 41:59 | work over and over again. So you figure out uh, how to |
|
| 42:06 | illuminate in the seismic, what it you're looking for in that particular petroleum |
|
| 42:18 | , then you can repeat it over over again. And so here an |
|
| 42:24 | , just sort of hunting and pecking in an area, uh, an |
|
| 42:31 | , you found something and you have figure out what the limits are appraisal |
|
| 42:35 | all about reservoir limits. Top bottom , false in between. We have |
|
| 42:42 | lot of a lot of minor faults the reservoir into smaller compartments. Something |
|
| 42:49 | extremely, as as one big all chopped up becomes uh perhaps in |
|
| 42:58 | parts of it. Not economic. then of course once that's done and |
|
| 43:04 | pretty much produced a lot of the reserves that you find there. Then |
|
| 43:10 | start getting into development and figure out to two to sweep it with a |
|
| 43:16 | flood, do all sorts of things that uh to try to enhance it |
|
| 43:22 | drill infill wells. And then of production methods get serious when you start |
|
| 43:30 | doing like seO to floods and other of things like that and using different |
|
| 43:37 | fluids and things like that to help the oil and gas out of the |
|
| 43:44 | . I don't talk a lot about , but I do talk about, |
|
| 43:51 | , so um again this goes through main the main roles of geologists in |
|
| 44:01 | and it goes to the main points what happens during that point in |
|
| 44:08 | And uh I think one of one the keys is um ah in industry |
|
| 44:23 | a lot of times exploration it was , I don't know if it is |
|
| 44:29 | , but it used to be considered of like the, you know, |
|
| 44:33 | of the best job to have in oil company because you were out there |
|
| 44:42 | with big bucks for example, if wanted to explore in the offshore east |
|
| 44:51 | , the atlantic, the western side the atlantic northern atlantic, you'd have |
|
| 44:57 | spend a lot of money to do lot of seismic acquisition and a lot |
|
| 45:02 | people are kind of tired of spending lot of money on these big acquisitions |
|
| 45:08 | . And, and then, and I ended up finding very little, |
|
| 45:13 | nowadays because we have alternate resources or have unconventional resources, we, we |
|
| 45:22 | have something that's more consistent in terms , we know where a source rock |
|
| 45:27 | and we know that it's a shale are very extensive laterally. It's something |
|
| 45:35 | . You can hit or miss, for the most part you're gonna hit |
|
| 45:39 | . And uh, and then the underlying economic rule in exploration and |
|
| 45:49 | expiration, you, uh, you up a lot of money and you |
|
| 45:53 | a lot of money Can your odds finding something may only be 20%. |
|
| 46:01 | , and so when you do an type thing in exploration, it's not |
|
| 46:09 | same kind of game. You can investors that, you know, every |
|
| 46:13 | we drill is gonna hit oil. you can't tell them is how much |
|
| 46:16 | is going to come out. And only thing you do have to tell |
|
| 46:20 | it's going to cost not a lot money. Looking at the broad picture |
|
| 46:26 | the base and it's going to cost lot of money to drill wells to |
|
| 46:30 | to find the sweet spot because the spots in um, in a shale |
|
| 46:37 | a little bit more difficult to find they are in conventional reservoirs. And |
|
| 46:44 | even though, you know, there's be oil and gas there, uh |
|
| 46:47 | as you drill, you get better it. But one of the things |
|
| 46:53 | you have to do is you have keep drilling producing, drilling, |
|
| 46:58 | drilling, producing, whereas in in resources, ah you're looking for prospects |
|
| 47:05 | have these, he's very poorest, permanent permissible primary ah structures and or |
|
| 47:15 | strata graphic traps that take less drilling actually produce. Then you have to |
|
| 47:25 | with the horizontal wells in a typical shale. Okay, and so and |
|
| 47:35 | we're going to go a lot through this is from, from exploration to |
|
| 47:43 | . Okay, I've put the this is part of the academic honesty |
|
| 47:50 | interpreted by me. I'm not going read it, but it's there and |
|
| 47:55 | we're going to go to lecture to is on resources and I think it's |
|
| 47:59 | a good time to take a I haven't lectured for an hour in |
|
| 48:04 | a while, so my throat's really me that this is difficult. So |
|
| 48:10 | I'm going to do is is pause recording. So I got to get |
|
| 48:19 | of this thing, cursor doesn't work a laser pointer. There we |
|
| 48:51 | Okay, can everybody hear me? think, I think I turned it |
|
| 48:58 | on, you know, I Okay, because this is petroleum |
|
| 49:03 | I think it's always important to kind talk a little bit about the significance |
|
| 49:09 | petroleum as a resource. And um it kind of maybe it strikes |
|
| 49:16 | it strikes me every now and then sometimes lawyers and economists seem to know |
|
| 49:21 | more about the oil industry than we . And I think, I think |
|
| 49:27 | important as geologists and geophysicists to have little bit of a handle on, |
|
| 49:33 | the economy around it, because like other industry, you know, if |
|
| 49:39 | not making money, you're not really all that well. I remember the |
|
| 49:44 | time I stepped into my job the first day at mobile, the vice |
|
| 49:53 | of production, who was an said that oil company, that any |
|
| 50:01 | , including oil companies only have really things and one was money and one |
|
| 50:10 | people, and he said people use money to make more money and that's |
|
| 50:17 | what it's all about. And, I really think these days, |
|
| 50:25 | You know, back in 2020 11, 12, 13, and |
|
| 50:32 | before 14, when the oil industry , was having one of its definite |
|
| 50:40 | . What we found uh was that , I didn't think there was a |
|
| 50:47 | to worry about the price of Now. Now it's a very important |
|
| 50:52 | . And I do think that it's remarkable that if The price of oil |
|
| 51:02 | remained $86 All this time since you'll be working with a lot more |
|
| 51:10 | right now in your offices or we'd have more job offers. But I |
|
| 51:15 | what's going to happen in the near for those of you that are gonna |
|
| 51:18 | looking, I think this is almost perfect time to be graduating because I |
|
| 51:26 | a lot of things are going to and I do believe up front, |
|
| 51:32 | need to say that I understand the climate change is real. I understand |
|
| 51:42 | we need to figure out ways to our hydrocarbon resources. But at the |
|
| 51:51 | time, I'm going to go through lecture, I'm going to get to |
|
| 51:53 | point where I hope you understand that matter how hard we try right now |
|
| 52:02 | doesn't mean I think people should stop . I think we should try harder |
|
| 52:07 | this past year has shown evidence that have tried a little bit harder. |
|
| 52:13 | even at that, even though mhm rate of Increases almost doubled in one |
|
| 52:20 | from the last three years in terms bringing on carbon free resources, it's |
|
| 52:30 | , it's like a drop in the to what we need for energy. |
|
| 52:35 | it's very hard to explain this to that have a black and white concept |
|
| 52:44 | the world. You know, one , You're four hydrocarbons on the other |
|
| 52:52 | before the climate. Part of the is, is the solution to help |
|
| 52:58 | climate is a long way off and we need to do two things that |
|
| 53:07 | sides of that coin need to remember , the people that are producing oil |
|
| 53:13 | gas can do a cleaner job and should be focusing on figuring out ways |
|
| 53:17 | do a cleaner job. And the on the other side need to realize |
|
| 53:24 | interview totally encouraged one side of alternate that does not have enough capacity at |
|
| 53:40 | point in time to be able to over. They need to realize you |
|
| 53:47 | destroy the bread and butter that's keeping from freezing to death and baking to |
|
| 53:53 | in Houston because there is just not electricity of this other source that we |
|
| 54:00 | . In other words, there isn't app that you can get on the |
|
| 54:03 | and push a button and switch everything electric. And uh and of course |
|
| 54:11 | things to electorate, it's not always the games that we need anyway because |
|
| 54:19 | lot of hydrocarbons, you need to spilled. Just two just to develop |
|
| 54:28 | technology. one of the ways I it his, if you had a |
|
| 54:37 | with one bad leg and it's really than this, it's more like a |
|
| 54:43 | with one bad leg. But if had a horse with one bad leg |
|
| 54:50 | the vet said, you know, just needs to exercise more on that |
|
| 54:56 | and he's gonna, the strength of leg is going to get better and |
|
| 54:59 | is going to be fine. And solution was to cut off the other |
|
| 55:04 | legs. So he would work harder the leg that needed, needed physical |
|
| 55:10 | . I mean, it's almost insane you, if you think of it |
|
| 55:14 | that sense, we uh, we to make oil and gas production as |
|
| 55:21 | as we can and as clean as can until we can get these other |
|
| 55:27 | up to speed and we do need keep pushing every way we can to |
|
| 55:32 | him up to speed. But the is not to destroy the resource that |
|
| 55:39 | actually providing us with all this energy now. We can't destroy that before |
|
| 55:45 | one is built up to the And I'll be showing you some slides |
|
| 55:49 | um, if you grasp the full of them like me, you'll feel |
|
| 55:55 | panicked that we have such an incredible to climb and, and again, |
|
| 56:05 | not against alternate resources. And my line is, you're not doing enough |
|
| 56:12 | do more. But at the the people over here in the |
|
| 56:18 | if they have trouble providing us we're gonna freeze like we did last |
|
| 56:24 | . And I don't know if any all of you were here last |
|
| 56:27 | but the, the alternate resources went offline. The, it was never |
|
| 56:37 | , but normally what happens. I went and looked at all the |
|
| 56:41 | and I think it's important to look data when that happened, it happened |
|
| 56:46 | the winter in the winter power I'm just talking about power generation, |
|
| 56:51 | transportation, but power generation for electricity we have right now ah, is |
|
| 57:01 | 50% supplied by solar and wind in winter because the demand is so low |
|
| 57:09 | in the summer when air conditioning comes , all the natural gas and coal |
|
| 57:17 | go back online because they know that don't have enough power from solar and |
|
| 57:22 | and it's not consistent either to maintain , but, but, but even |
|
| 57:29 | than that, um, what happens the winter is a lot of times |
|
| 57:34 | gas fired plants shut down for maintenance uh, in the case of |
|
| 57:40 | Um, and you know, you kind of fault people are not |
|
| 57:44 | but it doesn't freeze here all the . So the expense of uh, |
|
| 57:50 | proofing all of your, all of wellheads and pipelines and stuff in some |
|
| 57:59 | doesn't make sense. It's like, remember growing up, well actually, |
|
| 58:03 | I was in school in south Carolina Virginia, uh, we, |
|
| 58:08 | we had snow, but we didn't snow every year. And, and |
|
| 58:13 | do you go out and buy millions dollars of snowplows? Uh, that |
|
| 58:19 | never be used within the lifetime of vehicle. And that's basically what |
|
| 58:24 | what happened here in texas and it's to that in terms of the oil |
|
| 58:28 | gas. So even though people weren't being derelict, the whole system failed |
|
| 58:37 | the natural gas and you know, being good citizens and trying to shut |
|
| 58:42 | the natural gas in the cold during winter. Uh, basically the state |
|
| 58:49 | texas got caught with its pants down when the solar and the wind |
|
| 58:54 | It was supposed to be providing 50% it, there was nothing there and |
|
| 58:59 | also froze. But I think another important point isn't whether they freeze or |
|
| 59:05 | , the sun goes down every Last time I checked and it's down |
|
| 59:08 | lot longer in the winter than it in the summer. And so relying |
|
| 59:12 | solar energy in the winter is, not a good bet. And |
|
| 59:17 | normally the winds are higher in the , but sometimes they're not, and |
|
| 59:24 | europe has had some serious fall And one of the things we'll get |
|
| 59:30 | , because this issue of almost every source like nuclear, coal, |
|
| 59:37 | petroleum, uh, it's all based consumption, which is basically calculated |
|
| 59:47 | from how much we use, you , it's how much has produced almost |
|
| 59:52 | how much we consume. And you know, you, you just |
|
| 59:56 | so much to go on, but have meters and stuff like that when |
|
| 60:00 | address solar and wind and hydro quite often they talk about capacity. |
|
| 60:09 | don't talk about production, they talk capacity of energy. And the reason |
|
| 60:14 | do that is because it doesn't run hours a day, it can't run |
|
| 60:18 | hours a day. And so for , any given wind and solar source |
|
| 60:28 | we have, their efficiency rate over average month At best is 30%. |
|
| 60:35 | other words, uh it was a power plant, you would have to |
|
| 60:39 | three nuclear power plants to produce the of energy uh that one power plant's |
|
| 60:46 | was, and that's, that's the it is with, with um solar |
|
| 60:53 | wind and that's just the way it . Now, if they had |
|
| 60:57 | it would be a little bit So they could store it when it |
|
| 61:00 | needed. But even with batteries, doesn't run all the time. So |
|
| 61:05 | capacity has to be this big to that much production. So how much |
|
| 61:11 | you think it costs to triple your for that much production? It costs |
|
| 61:17 | lot of money and we'll get to as we go. So some of |
|
| 61:22 | things we're kind of hitting on is importance of hydrocarbons in society, most |
|
| 61:26 | , you know what that is, the difference between a resource and reserve |
|
| 61:32 | uh it's good that there's a question on reserve because people define in the |
|
| 61:37 | industry, they define reserves in a of different ways, but we're going |
|
| 61:42 | be looking at, would I consider an academic or or what a reserve |
|
| 61:49 | and what a resources sent So later the loose sense, but then I'll |
|
| 61:54 | out in more stricter senses, there's different ways to define what a resource |
|
| 62:00 | reserve is. Also talk about this called Peak Oil. How many of |
|
| 62:06 | are familiar with peak oil? If if you're keeping up with the |
|
| 62:17 | about the oil industry, say 2010 before you probably know what this |
|
| 62:29 | but for many, many years, well, they actually thought it was |
|
| 62:36 | going to run out of production. then someone in the UK came up |
|
| 62:40 | the term peak oil, which pretty said what we thought. And and |
|
| 62:46 | at that point in time, there a concept that in the very near |
|
| 62:52 | and it still could happen by the , but in the very near future |
|
| 62:57 | would be producing more, uh we be using more oil and gas would |
|
| 63:03 | consuming more oil and gas than we produce. And you have a big |
|
| 63:08 | curve, really dramatic decline curve on much we'd be getting out of the |
|
| 63:13 | . We don't have, as it out, people in the field you're |
|
| 63:16 | to get in have always been doing good job when we can't find oil |
|
| 63:20 | gas in one place. We use imaginations, not, not directional |
|
| 63:25 | but our imaginations to find new places drill. Okay. And so the |
|
| 63:33 | , but one of the underlying underlying inconvenient truths that I think al |
|
| 63:39 | missed. And I'll point it out ah I'll tell you what it |
|
| 63:46 | But it was his first slide and didn't say anything about it as far |
|
| 63:50 | I could tell and then how quickly replacing hydrocarbons as the energy source. |
|
| 64:00 | here I'm not talking about finding more . How fast are we really |
|
| 64:06 | How fast how fast is are the free alternates replacing it? And one |
|
| 64:15 | the very stark realizations is that right the only thing that could actually do |
|
| 64:21 | or could have done it would have nuclear power plants. But so many |
|
| 64:25 | them have been shut down. It take 10 years to two to actually |
|
| 64:31 | that back up. And then I'm go into some aspects of where the |
|
| 64:36 | . S. In the end of of that. I'm going to just |
|
| 64:38 | about kind of uh I think a of a lot of people young or |
|
| 64:45 | are not aware that the U. . Has been working on alternate energy |
|
| 64:49 | for almost 100 years. And we've a leader in this technology. A |
|
| 64:56 | of people say we've never done We haven't tried anything when I started |
|
| 65:00 | mobile Way Back in the 20th century Mobile had the largest solar panel company |
|
| 65:10 | the world. And they were doing they could to try to produce energy |
|
| 65:15 | having to drill a well And it didn't work. They also um for |
|
| 65:23 | they sorted out the sugar cane They had a bunch of sugar cane |
|
| 65:28 | experiments and they figured out if you're a country like brazil where the the |
|
| 65:33 | human labor is underpaid, it almost even. But in any place like |
|
| 65:40 | United States or china even you're gonna a lot of a lot of mechanization |
|
| 65:49 | on and that in itself is going burn actually more fuel than they get |
|
| 65:53 | of the sugar and they still haven't able to cross that line. Another |
|
| 66:00 | is and this I don't have this the lecture but I'll say it well |
|
| 66:05 | do have a little bit of it the lecture but one of the things |
|
| 66:08 | the role of height of agriculture in of generating C. Co. two |
|
| 66:15 | methane is enormous and no one's addressing . And my only understanding of it |
|
| 66:25 | you know it's hard to blame farmers we all are farmers in a |
|
| 66:29 | I even grow vegetables. Actually this we grew our our first crop of |
|
| 66:38 | lemons with the lemon tree and they fantastic. But everybody and I grow |
|
| 66:44 | grow grow flowers and bushes and stuff at the same time I'm adding to |
|
| 66:48 | carbon footprint by doing all of that you unless you bury the C. |
|
| 66:56 | . Um In other words dig a in your backyard and bury all your |
|
| 67:00 | . You're not sequestering that c. . 2. Okay here is uh |
|
| 67:06 | is from National Geographic in 2003 to to give folks an idea of how |
|
| 67:17 | asides from a fuel source the petroleum used in developing plastics and plastic |
|
| 67:24 | And of course more recently we're all concerned about um people dumping this stuff |
|
| 67:31 | the ocean. And of course there be a good reason for it but |
|
| 67:38 | do not understand why many cities haul trash out into the middle of the |
|
| 67:42 | and dump it on the shelf. new york city does that. And |
|
| 67:46 | of the other ones up in the do that. And I think the |
|
| 67:51 | thing about plastics ah that is worrisome the environment is it? It's a |
|
| 67:58 | a highly indestructible thing. And again I talk about using petroleum efficiently and |
|
| 68:06 | and in a clean way um there's lot of really high tech plastics. |
|
| 68:13 | make pipelines not just for oil and but for water and for plumbing systems |
|
| 68:19 | sewers you probably don't know this But helped someone dig it up back in |
|
| 68:27 | 1960s I would guess uh they made sewer lines out of tar paper. |
|
| 68:36 | uh if you can imagine what tar is. It's just paper with Tar |
|
| 68:41 | it's not structurally very strong. And you had a lot of people with |
|
| 68:46 | with the sewer lines that collapsed all once. And uh, that was |
|
| 68:51 | bad situation in Tulsa Oklahoma and a of other places, but there's a |
|
| 68:57 | where you can put some plastic into ground and leave it in the ground |
|
| 69:01 | you're actually sequestering carbon when you do . But it's, it's a very |
|
| 69:06 | thing that will last for years. last time I checked, most of |
|
| 69:12 | plastics are lead free and so you have the problem. They've had up |
|
| 69:16 | michigan with lead pipes and stuff like . It's in other words, there's |
|
| 69:21 | fit in an efficient way to use . And I think another thing is |
|
| 69:24 | lot of the plastic parts and a of course come from oil production. |
|
| 69:32 | . Um, so here is getting the natural resource issue. This is |
|
| 69:39 | good definition of it. And any there's a good definition, there can |
|
| 69:44 | a good test question on it, basically to be a natural resource that |
|
| 69:52 | to be naturally occurring. And I a lot of people are unaware that |
|
| 70:00 | and gas are naturally occurring. I a lot of other people are unaware |
|
| 70:08 | oil and natural gas are actually biofuels but that aside it has to be |
|
| 70:19 | that naturally occurs and it has to in quantities uh large enough for significant |
|
| 70:28 | so that they can be used to society and uh, and that's |
|
| 70:33 | it is right there. In other , it has nothing to do with |
|
| 70:37 | you actually produce it or not, a natural resource if it's naturally occurring |
|
| 70:43 | there are significant quantities that can benefit . And of course, if you |
|
| 70:48 | trees for example, they're used for , they're used for construction, they're |
|
| 70:53 | for all kinds of things. Uh you take limestone, it's used for |
|
| 71:00 | cement and concrete. Things like that skyscrapers in the whole deal. So |
|
| 71:06 | a lot of things like that in and gas of course, falls into |
|
| 71:10 | thing. Uh It's such a natural . Um When who knows uh explaining |
|
| 71:23 | BP oil spill on tv. It very clear to me that a lot |
|
| 71:28 | the scientists from the Northeast and I understand where hydrologists, but they weren't |
|
| 71:35 | geologists and they weren't weren't they weren't biologists for sure, but they they |
|
| 71:44 | to overlook the fact that methane naturally on the sea floor and also in |
|
| 71:53 | water column as algae and whatnot settles the bottom and bio degrades. And |
|
| 72:02 | bio degradation process. The bacteria turned into C. Co. Two and |
|
| 72:07 | and it's the same in the Okay, So we all know what |
|
| 72:16 | natural resources and we have this grid versus undiscovered. So when we're trying |
|
| 72:27 | figure out what total resources are the does this a lot in terms of |
|
| 72:32 | and gas. And I'm sure some in the lumber industry, uh, |
|
| 72:40 | have something like current growing crops and crops or that kind of thing for |
|
| 72:48 | . But in uh, in oil gas it's discovered versus undiscovered. And |
|
| 72:54 | , and certain ones are economic or economic. This is also true of |
|
| 72:59 | subsurface things like, like water and is becoming an extremely valuable commodity. |
|
| 73:06 | I don't know about you guys, my water bill almost always is higher |
|
| 73:10 | my electric bill. And uh, mean always, and I've tracked it |
|
| 73:17 | For at least 12 years and you know, I don't know why |
|
| 73:22 | are complaining about the price of electricity unless you got on a bad |
|
| 73:27 | And uh, some plans are bad the ones that try to um, |
|
| 73:33 | you in for a cheap rate, when things go bad, they can |
|
| 73:37 | , raise the price. Uh, are the ones that were setting you |
|
| 73:41 | for for what happened last winter. uh, and that's just, that's |
|
| 73:47 | a nasty way to do business, think anyway, there's economic and sub |
|
| 73:54 | and, and it's, you either you can make money doing or |
|
| 73:59 | can't. And what's funny about this things over here, go over there |
|
| 74:05 | you discover them and when technology improves we, uh, for example, |
|
| 74:17 | , there were deposits down here that definitely sub economic and shales until we |
|
| 74:21 | horizontal drilling and fracking and then they economic, but they're not that |
|
| 74:27 | you know, in general a horizontal with hydrofracking is, you know, |
|
| 74:36 | over the line, some of the I worked on were like way up |
|
| 74:41 | . I mean they were very economic and what changed another thing that affects |
|
| 74:48 | his infrastructure because any product that you out of the ground, you have |
|
| 74:51 | have a way to move it, a fluid, whether it's gas or |
|
| 74:56 | hydrocarbons or liquid liquid gasses, you , you need pipelines and pipelines cost |
|
| 75:05 | of dollars if you watch Bill Maher tv who has a lot of interesting |
|
| 75:12 | to say. He can't understand why of us in the east eastern part |
|
| 75:16 | the United States and texas when we floods, why we can't build a |
|
| 75:21 | to send the water to them. uh he's, he's overlooking the fact |
|
| 75:28 | don't even have enough money to put to keep from drowning much less more |
|
| 75:37 | to make sure California doesn't run out water so that they can have a |
|
| 75:41 | coast and and use up their water fires out. So it's a, |
|
| 75:47 | a tricky game anyway. And when started out, one of the stunners |
|
| 75:54 | me was that um, when you find oil and gas, sometimes the |
|
| 76:00 | companies that remove it from your well making almost as much money if not |
|
| 76:06 | than you are by just transporting it you're well in the gulf of Mexico |
|
| 76:11 | New york city. And and of they paid a lot of money to |
|
| 76:16 | it. Okay. Um so here have one way of looking at |
|
| 76:24 | discovered undiscovered economic or sub economic and if it's economic, that doesn't necessarily |
|
| 76:32 | you're producing it. So it doesn't to be a reserve. Okay. |
|
| 76:38 | reserves ah in a loose sense, you leto our resources that are considered |
|
| 76:44 | be identifiable and technically recoverable under today's conditions. In other words, you |
|
| 76:50 | actually have to be producing them. this is the loose sense and total |
|
| 76:57 | include all those reserves. Uh Both undiscovered, not identified and currently |
|
| 77:06 | economic. In other words, sub as it is in the chart |
|
| 77:10 | So that's your total resources. So of this would be total resources. |
|
| 77:15 | of course if it's not discovered, don't know which side of the line |
|
| 77:18 | goes on here. So, to things from this, this bucket to |
|
| 77:26 | bucket, technological advances like um hydro and horizontal wells got a lot of |
|
| 77:36 | over on that side. Uh I a well in uh helped Denmark find |
|
| 77:43 | well in uh in the North 60 million barrels of oil, 60 |
|
| 77:50 | barrels of oil somewhere in Texas would blink, bring somebody in a lot |
|
| 77:56 | money but in the middle of the Sea with no pipeline, it was |
|
| 78:00 | economic then a major gas pipeline with capacity of subdivide some of the |
|
| 78:08 | I guess it had multiple pipes It was laid all the way from |
|
| 78:13 | Norway, all the way down to to supply them with a lot of |
|
| 78:17 | gas from a natural gas supply And all of a sudden there was |
|
| 78:20 | pipeline near that oil well, that field of 60 million barrels that instantly |
|
| 78:28 | cheaper to move and economic and I'll show you a really good example |
|
| 78:33 | that when we talk about frontier be something it's called Rosie, west |
|
| 78:41 | Shetland Islands. Okay, so they've been identified, they can be |
|
| 78:50 | uh with the in other words, got to at least break even for |
|
| 78:55 | to be economical and there's no point having a company if you're not making |
|
| 79:00 | , so it's probably got to be . And total resources includes all those |
|
| 79:07 | in the box before. But when get the petroleum reserves, um, |
|
| 79:17 | start looking at them a little bit closely. And this is even in |
|
| 79:21 | loose sense, and that their considerable , capable of flowing under today's economic |
|
| 79:27 | requires a well in the reservoir with clearly defined conditions and with clearly defined |
|
| 79:34 | and boundaries and that is a good of reserve for the average person. |
|
| 79:43 | and also again, total reserves would proven probable possible depending on perceived reliability |
|
| 79:50 | reservoir conditions boundaries and the economy. when I was a production geologist, |
|
| 79:57 | had um sometimes we didn't know. are you? Well, what are |
|
| 80:03 | was in other words, the bottom of our reservoir. We knew there |
|
| 80:08 | oil down to here, but we know if it went all the way |
|
| 80:11 | to here and now there's ways of out how much and we'll talk about |
|
| 80:17 | in this class a little bit and will in structural geology as well. |
|
| 80:22 | , how high of a oil column you get before it starts breaking the |
|
| 80:25 | , before it exceeds the strength of seal. Okay. And, but |
|
| 80:32 | this thing bookable reserves, this is every oil company has its own |
|
| 80:39 | every um, every volumetric appraiser, lots of companies like DeGolyer and MacNaughton |
|
| 80:51 | go in an area and they'll evaluate reserves. Um whatever a geologist like |
|
| 81:00 | might determine as a reserve, they're to look at it really closely ah |
|
| 81:06 | in this sense. And then down they're gonna, they're gonna get the |
|
| 81:11 | line ferocity, the bottom line permeability the bottom volume that they might be |
|
| 81:17 | to calculate based on the information they and, and maybe later on, |
|
| 81:25 | give you an example because when I working at mobile, I had a |
|
| 81:33 | South Marshall A128 is the the The single three Mile Square block production for |
|
| 81:44 | and gas anywhere in the gulf of had 60 wells in it. But |
|
| 81:51 | , a hand off that I told about the exploration geologist, I had |
|
| 81:56 | out what the pay was, but when we had to figure out why |
|
| 82:00 | weren't producing as much as we were to have, I got put in |
|
| 82:05 | to kind of look at this a lot closer and I found out they |
|
| 82:10 | the height of the hydrocarbon or excuse , the the total height of the |
|
| 82:16 | reserves because they hadn't accounted on shale that were in it. In other |
|
| 82:21 | , they had report sort of out the net prosperity rather than excuse |
|
| 82:27 | they had total porosity as their net where there was sand. But even |
|
| 82:32 | you have sand, there are shale in there that knockout Some of |
|
| 82:36 | some of the places where it's 26% in, in other places coming down |
|
| 82:41 | that sand body, you might run shale streaks or wavy lamination is things |
|
| 82:49 | either act as baffles or barriers to and your net pay is less. |
|
| 82:55 | um, and make a long story from here to there, I determined |
|
| 83:03 | we had 75 million barrels less than mobile thought we had. And the |
|
| 83:09 | president of the corporate vice president of mobile. The number two guy |
|
| 83:15 | down to talk to me the next and I've only been working for the |
|
| 83:20 | for, For probably six months. uh, in the, unfortunately for |
|
| 83:28 | , the Petro physicists in the, um, no autopsy Mobile Eastern, |
|
| 83:35 | . It's along, it was a acronym. Uh, anyway, the |
|
| 83:39 | in, in Louisiana and new Louisiana, the Petro physicists and |
|
| 83:44 | and the older geologists said, he did it right. That's the |
|
| 83:48 | . That's why we're trying to get . We're trying to get Pennzoil, |
|
| 83:50 | is the operator to drill more wells we know we know there's more oil |
|
| 83:54 | there, but we haven't got it pipe yet. And uh, |
|
| 83:58 | and then we did that. but then De Goya Mcnaughton came in |
|
| 84:05 | uh, They took another 25 million of oil away. And the vice |
|
| 84:14 | who gave me a pretty hard I wanted to know what I've done |
|
| 84:17 | all of his oil. He uh, looks like you're pretty optimistic |
|
| 84:26 | . And so I felt better about . But, but even worse than |
|
| 84:31 | of this, the frontline newspaper report , and you'll never know about this |
|
| 84:37 | , but back at that point in , oil and gas prices were regulated |
|
| 84:42 | the US government and they had price and one of the price categories was |
|
| 84:51 | versus old oil. If it was oil You could get say $14 a |
|
| 84:55 | was new oil, you could get a barrel for it. And in |
|
| 85:03 | , the news media and whatnot, had decided that we were trying |
|
| 85:08 | the reason we lost 75 million barrels oil is because we're going to turn |
|
| 85:11 | into new oil when we found And in fact we did find new |
|
| 85:16 | after we drilled more wells. And but then when they, when uh |
|
| 85:23 | Goya Mcnaughton came in and was even pessimistic than we were. They they |
|
| 85:29 | out and the last page of the section somewhere that they made a mistake |
|
| 85:36 | mobile didn't really turn old oil into ones. So all of this stuff |
|
| 85:43 | is interrelated and you can run into like this today, different types of |
|
| 85:48 | , but similar types of problems. , so another way of looking at |
|
| 85:55 | versus reserves is um in this total pyramid here. And this is something |
|
| 86:09 | relative size of the resource, very amount of data required. It's very |
|
| 86:16 | down here. Well, I'm pointing my finger uh down here, you |
|
| 86:24 | typically have lots of large reserves that haven't been able to monetize, like |
|
| 86:30 | the, like all the oil shales gas shells and not oil shales, |
|
| 86:38 | shell oil and gas shales and up , uh as they get smaller and |
|
| 86:45 | , in other words, the smaller smaller, the resource gets the more |
|
| 86:49 | and sure we are that it actually and we have a higher probability of |
|
| 86:54 | drilling it. And uh, this sort of a step step up |
|
| 87:00 | as you're looking at these things, they become recoverable and economic then identified |
|
| 87:08 | then you're producing them like crazy. uh, this is this is where |
|
| 87:15 | exploration geologists are, excuse me, frontier exploration geologists are out here. |
|
| 87:21 | expiration ists and and exploitation geologists are here. Uh this is pretty much |
|
| 87:31 | appraisal goes on and then we get development and production and so it's all |
|
| 87:37 | , it relates to this value chain . So now stepping away from |
|
| 87:45 | uh, next thing to look at would be peak oil. And these |
|
| 87:52 | some of the, these are some charts, here's 2017 and peak oil |
|
| 88:00 | been predicted here with major declines. it was showing you also with this |
|
| 88:10 | the actual production And this was the 48. In other words, Alaska |
|
| 88:15 | keeping everything up. And uh and had predicted this fella from the UK |
|
| 88:26 | predicted that it was going to happen right here. And uh and of |
|
| 88:30 | he wasn't all that far off the States and this is why we were |
|
| 88:35 | a lot of oil and gas. But here's the lower 48 and here |
|
| 88:44 | coming along. And uh and all a sudden we get into these things |
|
| 88:50 | oil shales. Uh but this, is just the United States. But |
|
| 89:00 | , BBC's show horizon Called me up 29 2009. And wanted me to |
|
| 89:08 | about peak oil and if you're talking it from the perspective of the United |
|
| 89:14 | , we'd already passed it. Um unconventional kind of showed that we were |
|
| 89:24 | about this and this again is a of imagination. And geologists, geophysicists |
|
| 89:30 | engineers trying to figure out ways to an energy shortage rather than complain about |
|
| 89:37 | . They were solving that energy And uh so that was the |
|
| 89:43 | S. But but for the world this this peak hadn't happened because ah |
|
| 89:51 | about in here ah 1995 to about , especially after the year 2000. |
|
| 90:03 | huh brazil had found multiple billion barrel fields because they were starting to find |
|
| 90:09 | way to produce sub salt. And talk about the south atlantic in the |
|
| 90:17 | in a number of our lectures. the but the situation there is there |
|
| 90:24 | there was a big salt bed with marginal sea through the evolution of the |
|
| 90:33 | the south atlantic. It started out a rift system uh like the east |
|
| 90:39 | rift system and it created these, everybody see my hands sort of created |
|
| 90:45 | giant lake basins and the runoff was and rich. So there was a |
|
| 90:53 | for high productivity and uh the shells the salt and some of the limestone |
|
| 91:00 | after that uh the shale under there all lake shales with T. |
|
| 91:09 | C. Levels As high as 26-28 a good marine shale Is 2 - |
|
| 91:17 | t. o. c. So is part of the global lake basin |
|
| 91:22 | I was working on. And so prior to around the turn of the |
|
| 91:32 | Petrobras was drilling mostly the oil that through the salt and the lime stones |
|
| 91:40 | charge reservoirs conventional reservoirs above it. hadn't gotten underneath the salt to find |
|
| 91:47 | where the mother lode was and to out where the mother lode might have |
|
| 91:51 | trapped before it could leak. And what they've discovered so far has been |
|
| 92:01 | from my perspective and what I know these lake systems, the amount of |
|
| 92:06 | down there, if it wasn't going kill us from from global warming we |
|
| 92:13 | have to worry about. One thing never have to worry about is peak |
|
| 92:17 | . We do have to worry about demand which I think is a completely |
|
| 92:23 | thing. But the folks here were upset with me because I told him |
|
| 92:29 | can't imagine peak oil happening Because even this is the lower 48 for the |
|
| 92:36 | uh this thing was still going up of course we were importing oil to |
|
| 92:41 | in this gap that we had but we came back up with with oil |
|
| 92:46 | gas from unconventional shale oil and shell . Okay, so it essentially was |
|
| 93:00 | and these were where a lot of discoveries were. And this goes into |
|
| 93:06 | us had some big discoveries ah in this is what we call pre |
|
| 93:15 | And there's a offshore, we were to get under the apron of the |
|
| 93:20 | in some places and there was a of oil and gas there. But |
|
| 93:23 | all of this in here, the and the marcellus, the Haynesville, |
|
| 93:29 | Eagle ford and many others were these sources that we've been mentioning. And |
|
| 93:37 | and then of course the Tar sands um in a in Canada, it's |
|
| 93:47 | to say Alaska, but Canada, of the biggest deposits in the world |
|
| 93:51 | tar sands. And so it turns because of this, where do you |
|
| 93:59 | we were getting most of our oil , when this was happening in |
|
| 94:09 | we were importing it. Where do think we were importing it from |
|
| 94:16 | Not yet. The Middle East. we we imported some from the Middle |
|
| 94:23 | , but where, where were are our two main suppliers for most of |
|
| 94:28 | of this period of time. one Canada and the other one was Canada |
|
| 94:38 | Venezuela and Venezuela has heavy oil It's not quite a tar sand, |
|
| 94:46 | it's heavy and all of our refineries were being built over this period of |
|
| 94:53 | , I had to learn how to with that because we were losing all |
|
| 94:56 | our west texas, Intermediate crude and went to tar sands and because it |
|
| 95:02 | to tar sands, we uh tar and heavy oil are refineries had to |
|
| 95:11 | rebuilt to handle that type of natural to get the most gasoline out of |
|
| 95:17 | . You get the most gasoline out west texas intermediate relative to the heavier |
|
| 95:23 | . And uh but and again that has a lot to do with |
|
| 95:28 | but we're now getting west texas intermediate of the Permian Basin. And that's |
|
| 95:37 | why um we're exporting it because Uh the us right now is exporting three |
|
| 95:45 | barrels of oil a day. West , intermediate crude, two some of |
|
| 95:52 | other countries that haven't that didn't convert of their, they didn't convert in |
|
| 95:58 | period of time. All of the are most of the refineries to handle |
|
| 96:02 | oil. Mhm. So they're finding very useful. And of course We've |
|
| 96:10 | , I don't know if you drive and down I 10, but if |
|
| 96:12 | did Did any time recently, you notice there's a lot of big, |
|
| 96:16 | and new oil refineries along I-10 between in Louisiana and then there's a lot |
|
| 96:22 | there too. Okay, and that's that's the big Permian Basin Super |
|
| 96:30 | we've gone back to late, sweet oil from the Permian Basin. |
|
| 96:41 | Um one of the other thing too demand versus supply is a really tricky |
|
| 96:48 | because of the large volumes required. people think it's a manufactured, but |
|
| 96:57 | , when you have to the world now is using something over 80, |
|
| 97:03 | million barrels of oil A day. United States over 18 million pre |
|
| 97:11 | It was, it was close to million for the world And over 20 |
|
| 97:17 | for the United States. And it like we're getting back to that situation |
|
| 97:21 | spite of the fact that we keep to come in with alternate energy |
|
| 97:27 | And um, ah one of the about when the price of oil goes |
|
| 97:35 | and it, it tends to make move into the industry and they get |
|
| 97:42 | geologists like you guys to go out find oil and gas, you do |
|
| 97:44 | good job and then you get too oil. And when she had too |
|
| 97:50 | oil, ah, then the price down as the price goes down, |
|
| 97:57 | stopped drilling. And that's exactly what's Over the last seven years. |
|
| 98:03 | production and the United States has been . And it could take a while |
|
| 98:09 | us to get close to the records we would have, would have gotten |
|
| 98:14 | , if we, if we didn't this interruption. one of the advantages |
|
| 98:20 | drilling a lot of the unconventional, not producing when they had the money |
|
| 98:27 | do it. Uh, they could them online when, when the volume |
|
| 98:32 | oil available dropped off and they could them back up. One of the |
|
| 98:37 | with that though, of course, everything else. Sometimes when you abandon |
|
| 98:41 | well the well can collapse or have issues and it can cost a little |
|
| 98:46 | to a lot of money to reopen . But by and large, it |
|
| 98:50 | a pretty good gamble for some of people that drilled a lot of Wales |
|
| 98:54 | that's such a good gamble for Ah the technology itself reduces costs and |
|
| 99:02 | the economic supply at lower prices. that's the thing you're looking for. |
|
| 99:08 | can I get the most oil out the ground with the least amount of |
|
| 99:12 | ? And again, that's what I'm about with efficiency. Uh, I |
|
| 99:16 | it was a mistake by the oil to over drill. And because a |
|
| 99:23 | of companies went bankrupt and uh, hadn't over grilled the demand would not |
|
| 99:30 | dropped off because we wouldn't, we not have been able to keep up |
|
| 99:35 | it because we didn't reach that blood . And so it's very, very |
|
| 99:40 | for people from a broad brush thing to cut the supply off to make |
|
| 99:47 | price go off, but not to to make the price go down in |
|
| 99:51 | economic, as the minute the price down, when you get back to |
|
| 99:58 | chart. Again, the price goes , this goes back here. And |
|
| 100:06 | , and that's why you don't want over produce. It's not a devious |
|
| 100:10 | nefarious thing. It's just good business . And just so that you can |
|
| 100:18 | that before hubert came up with the peak. Um, this shocks a |
|
| 100:27 | of people including me, because my mother grew up in pennsylvania and |
|
| 100:31 | were always taught that the first oil ever drilled was in pennsylvania. |
|
| 100:38 | but Romania had had a well in , two years ahead of it. |
|
| 100:45 | a lot of this political stuff going . Mm hmm. Anyway, and |
|
| 100:50 | , uh, 1862 Canada, 1863 and In 1863, John Rockefeller started |
|
| 101:02 | became esso or Exxon or, or Oil Company usa, But in |
|
| 101:12 | the Geological Survey formed in, in for fear of oil shortages. |
|
| 101:19 | so here was a hint of peak Back in 1879, we didn't have |
|
| 101:24 | many cars. Okay. If we any, we had, we used |
|
| 101:29 | for a lot of, a lot fuel, things back then, like |
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| 101:34 | and uh, the things that windmills do, they started making engines that |
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| 101:39 | , would burn oil and uh, boiler type things. And then |
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| 101:44 | um, the Institute of Mining Engineers 95 million barrels of oil remain on |
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| 101:52 | whole planet With 25 million being So I gave him four years of |
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| 101:57 | left. So that's just another example I'm not going to go through this |
|
| 102:02 | this mubarak actually put a really long together and I just but put one |
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| 102:09 | of his list together to show you the concept of peak oil is really |
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| 102:17 | it's driven by supply and demand and , the economy. And if you |
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| 102:23 | at this, if you have all economic reserves and the price goes down |
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| 102:30 | of a sudden, you don't have economic reserves, you can't produce them |
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| 102:35 | . And so you end up with shortage and it's the kind of thing |
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| 102:38 | happens why the industry is so What we can't seem to do is |
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| 102:44 | get oil companies to slow down when need to. Yeah, Okay. |
|
| 102:50 | this is just another chart again showing another person picked peak oil and it |
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| 103:01 | Right around 20 2004 and again, , it was just about the time |
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| 103:11 | Floyd, C Wilson started uh in looking at the at the Eagle ford |
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| 103:19 | that created a boom of its Okay, here's another this charts from |
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| 103:28 | . And I think it's worth looking um if you haven't figured it |
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| 103:34 | Well, let me ask you, do you think peak oil is? |
|
| 103:37 | would you best describe what peak oil ? So from the earlier definition, |
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| 103:48 | would say p coin is where we a decline in the production due to |
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| 103:55 | from a decline due to supply and . And I will predict peak oil |
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| 104:03 | , or rather have three predictions. In 2026 35 and 47. |
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| 104:15 | So yeah, so that's peak That's peak oil. And that's peak |
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| 104:20 | . But let me let me make clear to you, the you call |
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| 104:30 | oil, because what it means is it means that not only is supply |
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| 104:37 | in demand, but for whatever we've produced all the oil. This |
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| 104:44 | is that it was like a fear . We've produced all the oil in |
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| 104:47 | world. We're not gonna have anything replace it. Which by the way |
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| 104:53 | in the 80s, Back in the century, uh, that was already |
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| 104:57 | reason for people to come up with sources, but they didn't. But |
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| 105:02 | we have in 2026. These are are different scenarios. And one |
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| 105:11 | um, As if this global supply is two, 2037 here in 2026 |
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| 105:21 | . And by the way, we're here right now, this is about |
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| 105:26 | we are, um 32 billion barrels oil right now In 2021, which |
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| 105:35 | be about right here, 22 And um, that puts it right |
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| 105:43 | . So what that means is that production has fallen off this curve already |
|
| 105:51 | terms of global supply. But why you think it's fallen off the |
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| 105:55 | Is it? Because there's no, not enough oil to continue to produce |
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| 106:00 | for some other reason because productions slowed due to the price of oil, |
|
| 106:09 | ? The price of oil and, , and Covid nineteen's had a lot |
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| 106:12 | do with it and it's had a , it's just pulled it right off |
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| 106:16 | curve. So, so this is trying to keep up with demand |
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| 106:24 | And this is when production halts, it halted in 2026 here, |
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| 106:31 | the amount of resource That you're using 10 times what you're replacing it with |
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| 106:37 | it drops. So, these are dramatic decline curves but it's not far |
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| 106:47 | from this one, but imagination in case of the United States and brazil |
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| 106:58 | all these other places. Uh, , we realized that the earth has |
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| 107:02 | lot of hydrocarbon left on it and demand, uh, is not gonna |
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| 107:09 | . But what, excuse me, is not gonna peek what's probably gonna |
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| 107:13 | is demand. And that's what's going here, demand is actually the driving |
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| 107:19 | here and not, and not the to produce more because we could be |
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| 107:25 | more than this. Okay. and of course this is, I |
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| 107:33 | this up here, just to point that this says low, 95% what |
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| 107:39 | mean by low, except there's a amount of available. In other |
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| 107:45 | if peak demand happens sooner, there's high probability in their mind that this |
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| 107:52 | be right, There's a lower probability we could last this long and even |
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| 107:58 | probability, still only 5%. But is they call it high because because |
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| 108:05 | we had the ability to have the level of production for a long |
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| 108:12 | Uh huh. That would be a probability 5%. Does everybody get |
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| 108:18 | It's sort of like um when you're reserves and uh you have a low |
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| 108:26 | , the probability of the reserves, number coming is higher than the probability |
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| 108:30 | the high number coming in. And this case, what slow meaning high |
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| 108:36 | uh what's a low amount of total available on the planet versus a high |
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| 108:42 | resources of of oil and gas on planet here. And what I hope |
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| 108:51 | got across to you in some way that if there were peak oil, |
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| 108:57 | would be farther out here if we're baking ourselves by then. But another |
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| 109:05 | that I want you to know is ah and I hope I'm it's coming |
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| 109:11 | is that because of the situation that in right now, the oil industry |
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| 109:18 | going to be here for a long . And so it's still a a |
|
| 109:23 | career path for people your age. may not be a popular career |
|
| 109:28 | but it's a very good career Okay. Yeah. And this is |
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| 109:38 | showing here's the 2017 estimate. So like this. So, so we're |
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| 109:43 | even getting close to where we we we might have been able to do |
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| 109:47 | . And the same, the same is here, ah the sensitivity of |
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| 109:54 | versus supply and, and you you can see here what was going |
|
| 110:00 | pretty steep and it's, it's kind leveling off. But one of |
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| 110:07 | the more recent predictions shows that getting pretty soon. And here is just |
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| 110:15 | show you how supply and demand and they predict these pretty well. |
|
| 110:20 | there was, there was overproduction. , this is a, this is |
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| 110:26 | glut right here. This is what need, and this is what we're |
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| 110:31 | up here. And This is right 2015, Things started to get serious |
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| 110:37 | we were getting this glut in which is hard to see because of |
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| 110:42 | box right there, but you can it right behind it. So, |
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| 110:45 | is a long term glut that started the beginning of 2014 because because of |
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| 110:52 | the horizontal wells producing, and this where it was predicted to end, |
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| 111:05 | , sorry, I thought I was forward and going there. Okay, |
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| 111:10 | here's what happened, It gets even than that. This is where the |
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| 111:14 | was supposed to happen, but it all the way through here and then |
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| 111:18 | had Projections that it would end in and I can't see it because |
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| 111:28 | let me see if I can I had to hide everybody. Okay |
|
| 111:52 | . Yeah, you can see here they were going to have something this |
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| 111:59 | extended where they were going to see there was a lower thing. And |
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| 112:03 | in 2019, you can see that , it's still a little bit of |
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| 112:10 | glut. And here's consumption. The went under just for a little bit |
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| 112:16 | time. So it's still closer than some of the project projections were. |
|
| 112:21 | then here's what's really happening more All of this is off, here's |
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| 112:29 | comes in in here and this is on. But What a lot of |
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| 112:35 | are seeing now in 2022 is that line is, is um, the |
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| 112:42 | is going to shoot up and and this is what This was, |
|
| 112:51 | was predicted in 2020. And it's almost happening. Uh, on |
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| 112:59 | was supposed to start Back in the quarter of 2020, but it's |
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| 113:06 | it's really happened um, in the quarter of 2022. We're seeing demand |
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| 113:17 | way up in spite of the continuing with COVID-19. And so here, |
|
| 113:26 | can see there's a big shortage through . It really started these projections are |
|
| 113:34 | . But it's really, really taken now and the demand is starting to |
|
| 113:41 | . Okay, so here's another this relates to you're exercise for supply |
|
| 113:53 | demand. And uh, here's one the things, uh, I want |
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| 114:00 | to look at, you can look other charts besides this one. But |
|
| 114:05 | , you can see through time, 1996. We kind of reached peak |
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| 114:11 | for a while, but it plateau there's some dips here and there. |
|
| 114:17 | we get all the way over here what happens And here, by the |
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| 114:27 | , is 2014 And we continue to . And here's a close up in |
|
| 114:44 | . Who do you think flooded the ? Russia? Saudi Arabia or the |
|
| 114:51 | States, wasn't it a combination of , nobody wanted to back down. |
|
| 114:59 | , here's the thing, Saudi Arabia , at any point on this |
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| 115:04 | they can produce a lot more than producers. But here's Saudi Arabia, |
|
| 115:11 | , this color. I think the of change is what you call a |
|
| 115:19 | . And here the rate of change dramatic. We go from producing less |
|
| 115:24 | 10, two Way over 11 million a day. And in fact, |
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| 115:35 | we're actually exporting three million barrels a approximately. And if you go back |
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| 115:44 | a little bit further, we we were producing, you know, |
|
| 115:47 | way up here and then it dropped . We were over 10 and then |
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| 115:49 | came down. But in recent I think if anybody flooded the |
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| 115:56 | it was the United States, but were blaming and see this is the |
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| 116:00 | about the oil industry, it needs think about what it's doing from a |
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| 116:04 | and a tactical standpoint. And any producer you can see here, Russia |
|
| 116:12 | able to open up some, some . This had a lot to do |
|
| 116:17 | the United States in some of the Western countries going over there and helping |
|
| 116:24 | produce oil and gas. Uh so , they've kind of producing as much |
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| 116:30 | they can. And here you can Saudi Arabia who could have always produced |
|
| 116:35 | than all of this still hanging down . And one of the other things |
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| 116:41 | happening right now is that if you at Opec altogether, a lot of |
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| 116:46 | smaller Opec countries and non Opec countries Venezuela have lost their ability to produce |
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| 116:53 | they, because their oil industries have damaged so much by the, by |
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| 116:59 | drop in prices of oil and the of financing to other industries. Another |
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| 117:11 | that's tough for us to keep hoping on some of the shale oil is |
|
| 117:21 | decline curve for these wells is is very quick, this is in |
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| 117:31 | and um, some of the, of the conventional wells that could almost |
|
| 117:38 | the curve in years. And so drill them and uh This is a |
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| 117:46 | one at 450 500 barrels oil, production way up here, but but |
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| 117:52 | gets depleted very quickly. And uh that's why you have to keep |
|
| 117:57 | you have to keep finding eighth grades drilling it and fracking it and it's |
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| 118:01 | expensive. It's inefficient and it's and uh it's not it's not the cleanest |
|
| 118:09 | to operate in terms of getting Does anybody know approximately what the price |
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| 118:16 | a barrel of oil, of disposing a barrel of water disposal is? |
|
| 118:27 | don't know exactly how much it but I know like for my |
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| 118:31 | we have to continue drilling because it's to continue drilling and reuse the water |
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| 118:37 | it is to actually dispose of Exactly, yeah, so that's a |
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| 118:41 | a real issue and see, and that addresses the efficiency. You |
|
| 118:46 | they used to dispose a lot of and uh and they've been coming, |
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| 118:51 | very, very good thing for you say it was really appropriate because the |
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| 118:58 | they were, the industry was using lot of our freshwater supply to do |
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| 119:03 | . But but because, and this the funny thing about the news media |
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| 119:09 | the general public, everybody's worried about earthquakes that's causing and the earthquakes is |
|
| 119:14 | , that is not the hydrofracking For the most part, it's the |
|
| 119:18 | of water that you get from the fracking. But even worse than |
|
| 119:23 | they were depleting aquifers and areas that no water outside of those major aquifers |
|
| 119:31 | uh and there were some places where , we're actually dumping water into ancient |
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| 119:38 | deposits. Uh, the cause of of assaults. And it's a funny |
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| 119:45 | city out in texas, but there's city where a crater bigger than the |
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| 119:50 | size of the city, not too away from it formed when they started |
|
| 119:55 | water into the ground. So, what our disposal is the real is |
|
| 119:59 | real issue With horizontal drilling for two . The first is you're using up |
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| 120:07 | very valuable freshwater supply and the second is when you have to dispose |
|
| 120:13 | that's what causes the earthquakes because it's of fluids, not, not um |
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| 120:20 | of fluids into a formation that causes earthquakes. That's the, that's sort |
|
| 120:25 | the mathematical and, and physics perspective it. Do you increase the pore |
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| 120:32 | then? Uh, then you weaken rocks. And when fracking occurs, |
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| 120:36 | a very limited event over a short of time and it's basically just, |
|
| 120:43 | like breaking breaking plates. Whereas when inject lots and lots of fluid, |
|
| 120:50 | just a little bit of fluid, the millions of barrels or millions of |
|
| 120:57 | from multiple millions of gallons of wells wells. When you start injecting that |
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| 121:04 | of fluid, that's what causes a of faults to mobilize. It actually |
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| 121:10 | the strength of the rocks because you're the pressure. There was a little |
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| 121:15 | crater in northwest of here. Same happened, they were injecting it so |
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| 121:21 | that it finally fractured in disposed water coming out of old abandoned well |
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| 121:28 | And uh, and the uh, section of the town collapsed just northwest |
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| 121:33 | Houston and I can't think of the right now, but it was a |
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| 121:38 | system. They over pressured it and popped and uh, and that's what |
|
| 121:46 | . So anyway, uh, in to this rapid decline, when you're |
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| 121:51 | the water, The best wells that in at 500 barrels, I probably |
|
| 121:59 | adequate permeability, but when they have permeability in a source rock, they're |
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| 122:04 | going to have associated water. And the water cut Is greater than 50% |
|
| 122:10 | close to 50% when it's produced in barrels of oil. So it's going |
|
| 122:14 | have 500 barrels of water to get of. And as you go through |
|
| 122:19 | decline curve, you're producing more and water and less and less oil and |
|
| 122:24 | . And that's another critical issue related some of these wells, It's a |
|
| 122:30 | great resource, but it's, it's really difficult to maintain an economic |
|
| 122:38 | there. And as Angela pointed uh, strategies to re use that |
|
| 122:45 | have made a big difference because I know a few years back, |
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| 122:49 | was $12 a barrel. And if can cut it, uh, you |
|
| 122:54 | , whatever it takes to drill three down to the equivalent of one |
|
| 123:01 | then you've cut your price in the and that makes it more economic. |
|
| 123:07 | . And uh and of course, you stopped drilling, you have to |
|
| 123:10 | that water somewhere else. And here is just showing um uh rapid decline |
|
| 123:21 | in um and a lot of the bacon fields or top producers, how |
|
| 123:29 | losing a lot of that. bacon is one big play that's produced |
|
| 123:34 | lot of oil, but there's also Permian basin, which is a |
|
| 123:38 | they call it a super bass. I think it's a monster basin because |
|
| 123:43 | got an awful lot of hydrocarbon in . And so they'll they'll be lasting |
|
| 123:48 | because they can keep moving around in places are actually their old places that |
|
| 123:52 | have ignored. Okay. And here's I think was gore's most income, |
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| 124:00 | inconvenient truth and he underemphasized and I maybe he didn't, but it just |
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| 124:06 | to me he did, and that population growth, you know, um |
|
| 124:14 | of the easiest ways to reduce our consumption is, is conservation. |
|
| 124:20 | say, everybody in the world Could stop driving half the miles in |
|
| 124:26 | year like we did for COVID-19. would be uh that would be a |
|
| 124:32 | way to start reaching our goals except happens is that more and more people |
|
| 124:37 | the world are getting disposable money and buying vehicles and buying things that need |
|
| 124:42 | and gas or plastics and it's really population. And another aspect of the |
|
| 124:49 | is agriculture, the more people we on the planet, the more we |
|
| 124:55 | to, uh, worry about producing . And the, that's, that's |
|
| 125:06 | really critical issue because agriculture is is a big component of the hydro |
|
| 125:13 | footprint that humans are the anthropogenic footprint humans have created. And uh, |
|
| 125:22 | it. And here's, here's something , these charts, these are almost |
|
| 125:29 | of this, this maybe this is a Pearson book, but, |
|
| 125:35 | you know, if you scrunch up scale this way, you can make |
|
| 125:37 | really look dramatic and they have But uh, you can see here |
|
| 125:44 | , here's what I think is interesting this church Is that we had one |
|
| 125:49 | people and um, 1800 one billion on the planet, presumably in 1800 |
|
| 126:02 | We had two billion somewhere around World Two. And then look at |
|
| 126:17 | It took 20 years to add one over here. It took over 100 |
|
| 126:22 | . So the rate of increase Is fold right now. And that's just |
|
| 126:30 | scary And COVID-19 has impacted this. I also think a lot of these |
|
| 126:37 | are impacting, um, some large , people are starting to have fewer |
|
| 126:43 | . And uh, although china went one child for the couple to two |
|
| 126:52 | . But again, um, you , you can't stop people from |
|
| 126:57 | And a real issue is population. if if we, I can't say |
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| 127:06 | I can't think of a way to population growth that people would consider fair |
|
| 127:11 | appropriate or right. But if if don't address population expansion, I personally |
|
| 127:21 | everything else that we're worried about in is insignificant compared to this one |
|
| 127:27 | This is an issue, folks, just there's just no way around |
|
| 127:33 | This this level of population increase is serious problem. And yes, if |
|
| 127:41 | having a population growth five times faster it was down here, you can |
|
| 127:48 | don't know how many times you can your energy consumption in half and still |
|
| 127:52 | alive. But but it's just it's not gonna work and it's kind |
|
| 127:59 | to me it's a really sad commentary where we sit with with all of |
|
| 128:06 | and here I just mentioned it, uh Agriculture contributes about a 3rd to |
|
| 128:13 | anthropogenic footprint. And notice they don't a cow out here farting uh and |
|
| 128:22 | methane out of its digestive track. they're showing you just somebody turning up |
|
| 128:29 | field so one of our solutions is produce meat from vegetables. The problem |
|
| 128:36 | that is producing vegetables, releases 02, uh some water. And |
|
| 128:44 | when you when you allow oxygen to into that, not only does it |
|
| 128:50 | CO. Two, but something much than C. 02. And that's |
|
| 128:54 | . And so it's releasing methane, has about 26 times the Heat carrying |
|
| 129:01 | of co two and consequently have a that I recently did a capstone where |
|
| 129:13 | drilled holes into into the mines, mine, coal mines that had coalbed |
|
| 129:22 | that was leaking at the atmosphere that was getting out and they figured out |
|
| 129:27 | to reduce the methane uh footprint by burning the methane flaring. It. |
|
| 129:34 | hate flaring but ah to turn the Into Co two into the atmosphere rather |
|
| 129:41 | straight methane into the atmosphere. Mm . Is a Is it 26 times |
|
| 129:51 | capacity advantage in the state of California gives people carbon present for that for |
|
| 129:58 | flaring that that methane that would with any intervention would have made it into |
|
| 130:04 | atmosphere. And uh and again as population grows, we have to as |
|
| 130:17 | society we have to have more of industry, we have to have more |
|
| 130:20 | more bigger farming units. I people personally can get a plot of |
|
| 130:28 | , they call them in the they call them allotments, they grow |
|
| 130:32 | own vegetables, but you know that takes care of in the summer, |
|
| 130:38 | takes care of what you need. pretty much in the way of green |
|
| 130:43 | , but there are a lot of and fruits that have to be grown |
|
| 130:48 | warmer climates and they have to be to you and the more people there |
|
| 130:53 | on the planet, the more, more of these larger farms and orchards |
|
| 130:59 | stuff we're going to have to And one of the problems with centralized |
|
| 131:11 | agricultural production is that it's going to more waste in the way of rotted |
|
| 131:19 | material. I don't know if you've driven by a farm field but by |
|
| 131:27 | of the fact that you can smell H. Two S. For example |
|
| 131:30 | a cabbage field uh if you can H. Two S. Rotten rotten |
|
| 131:36 | smell, if you can smell that by the way, H. Two |
|
| 131:39 | . Is not a good gas to in the atmosphere either. Ah If |
|
| 131:45 | if you can detect with your nose H. two s. That's a |
|
| 131:49 | indication that even though you can't smell or C. 02, you can |
|
| 131:55 | it's being produced in that field in quantities. So every time uh the |
|
| 132:02 | is harvested and rots it's putting hydrocarbons up into the atmosphere. And then |
|
| 132:08 | you turn the soil you're releasing more out of the soil. If there's |
|
| 132:15 | uh plant material doesn't have to be . But if there is plant material |
|
| 132:21 | and you turn that over it's gonna oxygen on it and it's going to |
|
| 132:25 | biodegrade it and it's going to get the atmosphere and this is this is |
|
| 132:30 | huge issue. Okay, let me you this before I go to the |
|
| 132:44 | . Imagine what else besides burning hydrocarbons with the industrial Revolution. Has anybody |
|
| 132:58 | at their slides? Unfortunately I gave the answer. Okay, irrigation uh |
|
| 133:11 | with mechanized agriculture started at the same and of course this is a good |
|
| 133:19 | of the mechanization, but But here HNH 20 is going up as |
|
| 133:26 | And uh not only is it coming of the soil, but um groundwater |
|
| 133:34 | a huge in fact, it's the largest freshwater supply in the hydro |
|
| 133:41 | And it's, you can think of as sequestered water and what is so |
|
| 133:49 | about releasing a lot of fresh water the atmosphere? Anybody there C11 |
|
| 134:08 | you know, I don't think it , but I don't think it would |
|
| 134:11 | enough because normally what happens when we the water to the surface, a |
|
| 134:18 | of things happen ah rather than a of water charging aquifer is where it |
|
| 134:28 | sequestered. Uh we're keeping it in atmosphere and therefore we're keeping the fresh |
|
| 134:34 | supply in the atmosphere over a more period of time. And The problem |
|
| 134:44 | that is uh water is the number greenhouse gas and certainly the oceans can |
|
| 134:51 | an awful lot on their own. the but there we know for |
|
| 135:01 | places that are irrigated, the climate changes and uh we we we already |
|
| 135:06 | it's causing climate change. And uh of the most noticeable things about it |
|
| 135:12 | uh uh plants that have spores and become more prevalent if you start uh |
|
| 135:20 | Irrigating places that were desserts for So so you're taking this water that's |
|
| 135:26 | into the ground and bringing it out mass quantities into the atmosphere. And |
|
| 135:32 | just another thing that adds ah adds to the system. And and it |
|
| 135:42 | carrying capacity of heat for C. is higher than water and methane is |
|
| 135:47 | than C. 02. But water is the highest percentage the water vapor |
|
| 135:54 | the highest percentage of gas of all of all these different things in our |
|
| 136:03 | . And some scientists blow this They say that um the temperature controls |
|
| 136:11 | amount of water in. That is that temperature controls the amount of |
|
| 136:17 | That's what relative humidity is all But that really would only address their |
|
| 136:25 | if the humidity percentage of the relative was the same everywhere in the |
|
| 136:31 | But there are places that are much than 100 uh relative humidity and that's |
|
| 136:40 | what the temperature does. It controls maximum amount of water. It doesn't |
|
| 136:44 | the source of the water or the of the source of water that's going |
|
| 136:49 | be put into the atmosphere. Salt evaporates slower. Fresh water evaporates faster |
|
| 136:57 | it's it's just an issue that I we haven't addressed because again, what |
|
| 137:01 | is is now Uh was in the and will be in the future? |
|
| 137:07 | # one greenhouse gas. Okay. pretty much went through that. So |
|
| 137:15 | much energy do we need and what the sources? And uh, I |
|
| 137:20 | we'll take another break because we've gone hour, almost an hour and 20 |
|
| 137:24 | I guess. And we'll come back , let's make it. How about |
|
| 137:37 | 15 minute one since my, my getting so I'm gonna have a rough |
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| 137:40 | tomorrow. Right. Um, I'll better as I do this because I'm |
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| 137:49 | to get used to it. Mm . Having trouble getting my zoom meeting |
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| 138:14 | come up there is I keep forgetting trick. The trick is to stop |
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| 139:19 | . Okay. I see everybody's Can you hear me? Yes, |
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| 139:26 | . Okay. So before we go to this, um, yeah, |
|
| 139:34 | , we've looked at the sort of at some things over the importance of |
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| 139:39 | in society. And of course we , we could talk forever about |
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| 139:45 | one of the things, um, I decided not to stay in the |
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| 139:51 | and go into research the oil industry my first choice, but I thought |
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| 139:57 | was a better, a better choice , um, than doing other |
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| 140:03 | And I really did feel like I doing something good for my country to |
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| 140:09 | find energy because energy has been the of our civilization. And in spite |
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| 140:19 | the fact that it's, it's becoming very serious problem in terms of global |
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| 140:27 | and climate change. Ah it was least at one point in time, |
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| 140:33 | very noble thing and I think it is simply because of the fact that |
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| 140:40 | need a lot of energy. Then nothing we can do to change |
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| 140:44 | Um we can't run and hide from . We've we've got to deal with |
|
| 140:48 | issue. Another thing that we talked was the difference between a resource and |
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| 140:55 | and how complicated it can get when dealing with with real financial investments. |
|
| 141:01 | looked at the concept of peak oil I find it interesting that none of |
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| 141:08 | have ever heard of it. there have been uh and then it's |
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| 141:14 | good thing too, but but I remember, Like in 2015 and 2016 |
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| 141:23 | finally uh reached a point where they worried about it every day. And |
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| 141:29 | and then of course, right, hope you share some of my concern |
|
| 141:35 | the real inconvenient truth and that's population . And uh so now, what |
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| 141:42 | trying to, I'm going to show is, Mhm. What is |
|
| 141:46 | You know, how not only how energy do we need, but what |
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| 141:50 | their sources? And when you ask question, you you come upon the |
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| 141:56 | of how quickly are we replacing hydrocarbons these other environmentally more friendly sources. |
|
| 142:06 | as it turns out, it's the record is pretty bad. Mhm. |
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| 142:13 | is very unfortunate too. It's good a career in the oil industry, |
|
| 142:20 | it's it's not good for the Okay. Um This is a |
|
| 142:27 | Um I just want to tell it's not that I don't keep up |
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| 142:31 | this. Um The normally like The reports on energy, whether it's called |
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| 142:46 | annual review or annual summary or annual . A lot of oil companies do |
|
| 142:52 | and they have large research teams working these kinds of things, but also |
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| 142:58 | the International Energy Agency and there's the Information Administration in the United States, |
|
| 143:10 | Iaea and the E. I. . They used the same letters and |
|
| 143:14 | couple of different words, but but is the United States and one is |
|
| 143:24 | this is a global agency. And course, they all put a lot |
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| 143:28 | research into into how much is being and how much we need and that |
|
| 143:34 | of thing. And they do these . And I showed you examples of |
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| 143:38 | of the projections and when we're talking the balance of demand and consumption, |
|
| 143:44 | ah it's a little tricky. It's to predict. It's certainly easy to |
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| 143:51 | in the past. Thank you. but but the one thing is that |
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| 143:59 | agencies, including the oil companies do very good uh sources of information. |
|
| 144:07 | US Geological Survey provides similar types of in terms of sources of oil in |
|
| 144:16 | sources of oil. And they've they've a lot of time developing studies on |
|
| 144:22 | lot of the undiscovered reserves around the , mostly around the United States. |
|
| 144:28 | they get out of the country every and then and do things that relate |
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| 144:31 | the entire world. So there's a of data out there to help us |
|
| 144:36 | of look at this stuff. But is, this is a couple of |
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| 144:39 | older and what I wanted to get was that If you pull up to |
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| 144:44 | report, it's gonna help them. gonna take them almost a year To |
|
| 144:50 | up with the 2021 actual Report on and 2021. They report on 2020 |
|
| 145:00 | 2022 in October sometime around October. going to find out what happened in |
|
| 145:07 | , Not 2022. So the latest is really based on 2020 And that |
|
| 145:16 | has to do with COVID-19 in terms demand. But prior to all of |
|
| 145:24 | , you can see here mm That some of the richest countries in |
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| 145:30 | world, like china and the US also ah, consuming energy like |
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| 145:39 | And I think there's a couple of you can get get from this and |
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| 145:43 | is wealth is supported by energy and think two to be a rich |
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| 145:54 | Um, you need to really have lot of energy. And you can |
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| 146:00 | here India's 3rd Russia is, is fourth on how much they use. |
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| 146:08 | and of course indian, I guess and china, correct me if I'm |
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| 146:12 | , but I believe India and China the two largest populations in the |
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| 146:18 | And but there's a lot of wealth these countries and if we're gonna do |
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| 146:25 | globally, we have to get, know, I don't think of Germany |
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| 146:29 | a poor country, but we're going have to get some of these other |
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| 146:34 | below this list. Uh huh. might have to to help provide the |
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| 146:42 | energy sources for them. Ah And big as china is and as wealthy |
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| 146:49 | china, is there still one of biggest users of, of coal, |
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| 146:54 | is probably one of the Heaviest Co output uh, sources of energy and |
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| 147:03 | it also produces a lot of other as well. And um and so |
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| 147:11 | that's an issue. But what I'm to get at is these, the |
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| 147:14 | States and china and to a lesser India are putting out a lot of |
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| 147:23 | and and and they are benefiting and from that, but but the problem |
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| 147:30 | how can they help support, not the rest of the people on this |
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| 147:33 | , but people that aren't even on list. Um I don't want to |
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| 147:40 | the number, but I do know the very recent past South Africa, |
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| 147:45 | is not, not really a poor . I mean they do have a |
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| 147:50 | of economic issues, but that's a , pretty strong country in itself. |
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| 147:59 | they've already asked the United States for of dollars to help pay for their |
|
| 148:05 | . And if you stop and think it, it might be appropriate that |
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| 148:09 | do that. And uh, whether an american or from South Africa, |
|
| 148:19 | , here is a diagram that's just to show the gradual transition in the |
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| 148:25 | mix and uh, and it's continuing you know, you can see here |
|
| 148:33 | is dropping off, but at the time, natural gas is, is |
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| 148:39 | cole's dropping off. Uh, but at the end of the day, |
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| 148:46 | three of these things around Around Right. So, you know, |
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| 148:53 | nothing in here, 90% of our comes from oil, coal and |
|
| 149:00 | 90% of it. Okay, and we have hydro, here we have |
|
| 149:12 | . There's a little star on It says, renewables includes wind, |
|
| 149:16 | , geothermal biomass and biofuels. Geothermal is, I think has an |
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| 149:22 | potential, but it's expensive and, that certainly would employ geologists, but |
|
| 149:31 | , it has almost no impact on global demand, even though Iceland is |
|
| 149:36 | geothermal, it's a small population, biomass and biofuels. I know they |
|
| 149:50 | like they're helping you, but they're helping you because their carbon sources and |
|
| 149:56 | than sequestering the hydrocarbons they're producing and hydrocarbons and that's not, that's not |
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| 150:05 | our footprint. The only thing on list on the renewables that really counts |
|
| 150:10 | the end of the day is, solar and wind and we have to |
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| 150:15 | more with them. And so I've tracking this for a while and I'm |
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| 150:21 | to go through some slides and show , well, other people have been |
|
| 150:26 | it. I have been looking at other people have been tracking. We'd |
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| 150:30 | a better way of saying it. I, but every year I try |
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| 150:33 | look at this and try to try think, God, it's, we're |
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| 150:38 | trouble. And, uh, and , that's all I get out of |
|
| 150:41 | . But here again, gas has up. one of the good things |
|
| 150:45 | gas is that It's co two output about 50 that of coal. And |
|
| 150:54 | , and I think it's a lot , uh, well, it's, |
|
| 150:58 | don't know how much less oil oil might be, but, but natural |
|
| 151:03 | is less because the, it's in terms, the real energy punch comes |
|
| 151:10 | , You know, it's CH And, And you have four hydrocarbons |
|
| 151:17 | in coal. It's mostly see, it's sort of a mystery where all |
|
| 151:22 | H comes from. But in you know, you have those complex |
|
| 151:27 | and they have lots of carbon in to lots of hydrogen, whereas gas |
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| 151:36 | four times as much hydrogen as it card. And that's why you get |
|
| 151:41 | energy and more bang for the buck . And that's the easiest and simplest |
|
| 151:45 | to explain it to us. And , this, this is kind of |
|
| 151:54 | , power generation is the thing, know, here's, here's a diagram |
|
| 152:00 | us power generation. Now. This kind of a really scary chart because |
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| 152:08 | it's gonna change, uh, there's couple of things about it. What |
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| 152:15 | , this is power generation when people you that, that, um, |
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| 152:24 | of these different things like renewables, know, are doing a big |
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| 152:32 | This power generation is using all of sources and power generation aside from transportation |
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| 152:40 | a small part of our energy And so if we were to rapidly |
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| 152:50 | , in other words, if if could flip this switch right here on |
|
| 152:53 | iphone and everybody would have, an electric car tomorrow, there wouldn't |
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| 153:00 | enough electricity to run the cars because be replacing all the oil and other |
|
| 153:10 | . Well, all the things, get diesel, you get gasoline, |
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| 153:13 | get all sorts of stuff. some people even have trucks that run |
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| 153:16 | methane and, and that sort of . But if you, if you |
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| 153:23 | about all that, the, this generation is a small part of the |
|
| 153:29 | global demand of energy and yet renewables still a small part of it. |
|
| 153:37 | still a small part of it. if you look at solar and |
|
| 153:41 | you have to cut a line down . It's about, It's about from |
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| 153:45 | year 2000. When I started following , it's about 50 until you get |
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| 153:51 | the last couple of years. It's That's now 60 Close to 60%. |
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| 153:58 | so the renewables aren't even doing this . If you think of carbon free |
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| 154:05 | and here's, I'm gonna have to close your beautiful faces here. Let's |
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| 154:17 | now that it's fighting me, this great except for when it doesn't |
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| 154:26 | Okay. To me, this is really scary, scary uh thing because |
|
| 154:43 | the clean energy down here and and this would be biofuel I |
|
| 154:51 | And I gotta switch back up to . So here we have biofuel |
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| 154:59 | we have batteries, Solar Wind, The Year 2020 two to go to |
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| 155:08 | all electric system. This all of transportation oil has to be replaced by |
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| 155:16 | of this and you're still gonna have oil, This is 2050, |
|
| 155:27 | I hate to tell you guys, in 2050 you're going to be older |
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| 155:30 | you are now. And at that in time, if we, if |
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| 155:36 | are able to do this, Look the steep climb that we have to |
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| 155:41 | just in the next 10 years and would become Based on today's dollars, |
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| 155:47 | would be a 1.2 trillion dollar This would be one point 25 trillion |
|
| 155:57 | from this, which is 123 How do you think we can spend |
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| 156:03 | much money between here and here to there? Does anybody have a |
|
| 156:15 | And um and that this would all well and good. If we actually |
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| 156:20 | do this, you see how this goes, that's dramatically increasing. Even |
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| 156:27 | line is dramatically increasing. So I you to remember when we got a |
|
| 156:32 | of slides in the future here that go from here From one side of |
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| 156:40 | chart to the other side of the , clean energy has to increase um |
|
| 156:48 | looks like almost tenfold. Just a bit less than 10 fold if these |
|
| 156:54 | are any good. And And that's in 30 years. Okay, here |
|
| 157:07 | a chart from 2001. Okay, 3%. This is 6%. This |
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| 157:22 | bio mass, Solar's at one. does it one. So we've come |
|
| 157:32 | long way from there, but at same time half of this, its |
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| 157:40 | producing my light keeps turning out on , okay. And I've been looking |
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| 157:56 | this for a long time. And for 15 years It's gone from three |
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| 158:09 | 5.4% carbon neutral. That's a 2.4% in what we had here over that |
|
| 158:21 | period of time, which is it's increasing at point Not 16%, but |
|
| 158:31 | . And I'm not talking about power . I'm talking about that huge, |
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| 158:41 | huge mass versus what we have down As of 2020. So, For |
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| 158:54 | last 15 years or 15 years, , uh That's what it says up |
|
| 159:01 | and that's what it says down Okay, So it's ah I I |
|
| 159:06 | put these slides together myself anyway. rate of that in terms of the |
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| 159:14 | demand is .16%. Okay. If remember the other chart I showed you |
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| 159:24 | with who uses all the energy and has all the money, those two |
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| 159:30 | , the first two countries, and the 3rd and 4th and 5th. |
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| 159:33 | every, perhaps everybody on that list going to have to donate money to |
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| 159:40 | countries that can't afford this transition. there is a little spark Last year |
|
| 159:50 | I got 2019 ah over the last would have been in 2020. And |
|
| 160:01 | the 2021 report report is what I'm at. But 2017, 29 03 |
|
| 160:07 | , It went from 5.4% to 6 . And you can see here, |
|
| 160:20 | neutral. The carbon neutral stuff actually out to a .87% increase over those |
|
| 160:30 | years, Or pretty much a 3rd 1% per year of carbon neutral |
|
| 160:39 | We're displacing the hydrocarbons and other nasty like nuclear power. Okay, so |
|
| 160:55 | you come along too, 2020 just comparison I put 2020 on here And |
|
| 161:07 | is no longer 50 uh for 2019 43. And you can see here |
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| 161:16 | there was a significant amount of increase really gone from Less than 50 to |
|
| 161:27 | 57%. But in 2020 and I the 2020 numbers here just so you |
|
| 161:33 | see them. But in 2020 it it The amount of biofuels drops down |
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| 161:42 | her biomass drops down to 39%. the way producing this biomass produces co |
|
| 161:48 | and methane. And and you and go from here uh here's when and |
|
| 161:57 | hydro Electric notice there are 22% and of this pie. This is something |
|
| 162:05 | I find a lot when people talk renewables, they round them up and |
|
| 162:08 | around the other ones down This this so severe but 11.5 6% of our |
|
| 162:16 | globally. Or this is us. sorry this is in the US and |
|
| 162:21 | used in the U. S. it's one of the biggest energy users |
|
| 162:24 | it's one of the richest countries. if anybody can do anything about |
|
| 162:27 | it would be them. And uh so Here you can see it was |
|
| 162:35 | I looked at the data the actual 11.56. But that's really a small |
|
| 162:40 | problem. But it does make these a smaller part of the whole supply |
|
| 162:50 | . And when you look at, you look at the international numbers, |
|
| 162:54 | looks even worse because again, we one of the leaders in renewables. |
|
| 163:02 | So anyway for 2020 From 2019 to , It actually increased .7% a |
|
| 163:12 | Okay, so how many years would take at this rate now? We've |
|
| 163:20 | a little bit of an increase. went from .3 essentially .3 2.7. |
|
| 163:27 | it's more than double uh just this past year. But ah if we |
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| 163:35 | to continue two, add these this clean energy and throw the batteries in |
|
| 163:44 | to store the energy that's being generated it's not needed. Um, we |
|
| 163:53 | , It takes 10 years To display of the United States and probably a |
|
| 164:00 | less of the global demand of energy outside the US the demand is increasing |
|
| 164:08 | faster than it is in the And so does anybody want to sort |
|
| 164:19 | , how many years would it take ? Right now? It's it's right |
|
| 164:23 | 10%. How much would you want um venture to guess actually the total |
|
| 164:32 | is is um, Is not it's it's only half of this. |
|
| 164:38 | it's it's around six 6% of what's by the US. Is being handled |
|
| 164:48 | with this wind and and solar in . Put those three together in |
|
| 164:56 | you put all three of these It's 61%. Mm hmm. Of |
|
| 165:04 | of what we need in here. it's a little bit. So I'd |
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| 165:11 | be instead of 5 1/2. It probably be uh Close to 6%. |
|
| 165:19 | . There's six and a 1/2% of of what we need just in the |
|
| 165:26 | . So anyway, just looking at rate and that's really only A .7% |
|
| 165:35 | per year. So to go from 6.5% to start adding this at a |
|
| 165:46 | rate. Um at this current rate adding, how much would it, |
|
| 165:54 | much do you think it could take in 10 years And nobody followed what |
|
| 166:08 | said. It would be around Yeah. So, and remember |
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| 166:19 | this is a this only shrinks as grows. And so if, if |
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| 166:26 | not like it's not like you're, know, you're adding to it. |
|
| 166:34 | the rate that this piece of pie increasing per year Has only been 7%.7% |
|
| 166:43 | year in. And what this diagram showing us that's, you know, |
|
| 166:53 | got to, we have to go a really small percentage to a very |
|
| 166:57 | percentage in a very short period of . So If you projected out to |
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| 167:10 | at the rate is increasing right which is exceptionally high. It's the |
|
| 167:18 | yet. Um If we were just pagan at that, mm hmm, |
|
| 167:28 | would have to uh, to, get to somewhere above 80% of the |
|
| 167:32 | supply, it would take how So, um, in 10 years |
|
| 167:51 | was predicting another prediction of .07 In years time from 2020 Now, 10 |
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| 168:01 | from now, uh, based on rate that they're increasing this, this |
|
| 168:09 | of the wedge that applies only to green thoughts about footprints. Yes. |
|
| 168:21 | me of the great power without no footprint without the biomass in there. |
|
| 168:27 | , we're not talking about the biomass the biomass is not is not really |
|
| 168:31 | of the clean energy. So 61% the 12% in the pie. |
|
| 168:41 | But, but what I'm talking about is it's gone from In one |
|
| 168:46 | it went from 10 something to 11 in its .7% per year. So |
|
| 168:55 | we have that rate of increase in years it'll go from from 11 |
|
| 169:05 | That's in 10 years. So how years would it take To get it |
|
| 169:13 | something over 80%. It would take years. 10 times. This is |
|
| 169:30 | , eight times, this is And that would be 70 plus, |
|
| 169:37 | , about 6, 76%. So get to 75%, it would take |
|
| 169:42 | years at the rate we're increasing it now, where's all that money gonna |
|
| 169:47 | from? If we're gonna if we're to try to we have to increase |
|
| 169:53 | rate Much, much higher than it right now to get it done in |
|
| 169:57 | years. But at the rate that doing it right now, as of |
|
| 170:06 | , it's increasing only and this is the best year on the planet. |
|
| 170:12 | it's only increased .7%. And that's for that's just for our country. |
|
| 170:20 | it's but when you take the whole , that would be, these numbers |
|
| 170:23 | be worse. Mhm. Because a of countries can't afford to do |
|
| 170:37 | Okay, well, I guess I've that into you. So it's a |
|
| 170:40 | bit, it's to me it's And um and so again, this |
|
| 170:50 | that same chart um when you think it, the Ceo to free alternates |
|
| 170:57 | barely growing at all when these things trading off with each other as they |
|
| 171:02 | been doing uh and natural gas is with respect to the others. And |
|
| 171:13 | I guess the reason I put that there was to point out is that |
|
| 171:18 | natural gas is growing as a source energy. And the reason I think |
|
| 171:23 | important to point out again is because gas is a hydrocarbon source Would have |
|
| 171:30 | smaller co two footprint than the other and the biofuels. Okay. And |
|
| 171:43 | is uh this is something sort of and we should be able to get |
|
| 171:50 | these pretty quickly, but but um are the things that we have that |
|
| 172:00 | carbon free right here. Geothermal Harley an impact. Hydro electric. You |
|
| 172:10 | see here. That's pretty significant. . C Hydro electric is 24% of |
|
| 172:19 | total of alternates here. It's um Here, it's 22. And so |
|
| 172:35 | one of the things you get from is hydroelectric is pretty much static. |
|
| 172:40 | do you think hydro electric would be due to all the sources of free |
|
| 172:54 | or greener energy? So we don't to read take as much or you |
|
| 172:58 | use as much. Well, here's thing about hydro electric, it only |
|
| 173:04 | in certain places. And uh and are places where it's it's been |
|
| 173:14 | but at great expense to society. a place sort of in the middle |
|
| 173:24 | south Carolina uh that during World War to get a power generation. |
|
| 173:33 | They made two dams there really insignificant to most dams, but they put |
|
| 173:41 | lake Moultrie and lake Marion and they're recreational lakes, but a lot of |
|
| 173:47 | got flooded, a lot of people's got flooded and that's because it's on |
|
| 173:53 | coastal plain and uh there are other like china is a leader in this |
|
| 174:00 | built the biggest dam in the but you know, it displaced a |
|
| 174:04 | of people. It's it's an incredible of energy, but it displaced a |
|
| 174:08 | of people. And I'm not sure how people felt about that, but |
|
| 174:18 | you know, after a while, almost doesn't matter because you have this |
|
| 174:20 | big lake, but that lake depends on rainfall and we have lakes |
|
| 174:28 | over the United States that don't have water in them right now to generate |
|
| 174:32 | . So there's a lot of things that make it hard, you |
|
| 174:38 | once the dam is filled, you're gonna get any more power generation out |
|
| 174:42 | it. And if it overflows, have to spill it out. So |
|
| 174:47 | increase hydro electric, you have to more dams and you have to flood |
|
| 174:52 | people's homes. The one place that really works well is Norway because Norway |
|
| 174:57 | a lot of Alpine valleys, alpine valleys that they can damn off, |
|
| 175:03 | they had a lot of precipitation for most of their history and they |
|
| 175:09 | generate so much hydroelectric power that it's to ship box side or aluminum or |
|
| 175:19 | the way to Norway and and produce there because they have this almost unbelievable |
|
| 175:31 | of hydroelectric power. They have so hydroelectric power there. They, |
|
| 175:38 | I think they provide about half of energy just from their hydroelectric, they |
|
| 175:43 | all of their hydro, like all their electric needs. And uh what |
|
| 175:50 | let me ask you this, if you were to put heating pads |
|
| 175:55 | your floor to heat to have central do you think that would be less |
|
| 176:03 | ? We're more efficient than typical central and heat. Nice. It's a |
|
| 176:15 | efficient because it's, it's, it's most, it's one of the |
|
| 176:19 | most inefficient ways to heat house and Norway's cold, but that's what they |
|
| 176:27 | . I lived there for two it's nice because your floors are always |
|
| 176:32 | . Uh, but um, it's incredible amount of energy has to be |
|
| 176:38 | to heat up your floor before it actually you actually feel it. But |
|
| 176:44 | a nice, it's a nice clean because it's powered by hydro electric. |
|
| 176:51 | there are places where we can take of these greener things and wherever we |
|
| 176:57 | , we need to figure out I think another thing is, for |
|
| 177:01 | , uh, I believe, I'm sure, I might be totally |
|
| 177:06 | but I believe in Iceland just because where they are, the geothermal situation |
|
| 177:12 | extreme and they can probably produce geothermal at a cheaper rate than almost anybody |
|
| 177:20 | on the planet. So if we better ways of transmission of energy of |
|
| 177:26 | energy, that would be very, important thing, which is why people |
|
| 177:30 | doing a lot of research on And that surplus energy from, from |
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| 177:35 | , that's hydroelectric. And geothermal from could at least help a little bit |
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| 177:40 | bump bump that growth rate up a . But as it stands right |
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| 177:44 | hydroelectric is very static and geothermal is static cause geothermal is really, is |
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| 177:51 | and hydro electric. Uh you aside from where people have built dams |
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| 177:58 | , it's, it is a, an extremely expensive endeavor to build new |
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| 178:03 | new dams and places where it may work. And it's, and it |
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| 178:10 | be possible for someone to consider a dam is being an environmental disaster for |
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| 178:17 | things that lived in that area, people. Okay, the problems with |
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| 178:25 | and solar, The wind doesn't always in 2017, europe had a lot |
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| 178:31 | power shortages and I believe they're having again this year because the wind didn't |
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| 178:35 | very much and they were putting a of energy and effort into it. |
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| 178:40 | , that's good, they need to more into it. You know, |
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| 178:43 | got to get these power growth rates higher the solar. Mhm. You |
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| 178:50 | , in the summer, put a of panels out in the desert in |
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| 178:53 | summer, it's gonna be great even the winter if it's close to the |
|
| 178:59 | . Ah but again, there are places that are better for these kinds |
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| 179:03 | things than others. And uh you , the deserts in the United States |
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| 179:10 | still in temperate areas and so in winter they kind of dropped way off |
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| 179:16 | also they get dark at night and they have excess capacity and they can't |
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| 179:24 | it all the time because a the not blowing enough, the intensity of |
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| 179:29 | sun is not high enough. And and then it goes dark where the |
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| 179:35 | stops and so those are problems. if if there is a period of |
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| 179:41 | when the capacity is being fully realized of the time, uh the grid |
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| 179:47 | they're attached to can't absorb that. we need to create more battery uh |
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| 179:52 | know, the real thing right here is battery research and battery storage so |
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| 179:57 | whatever extra power these can create would able to store and save and transmit |
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| 180:06 | in time. And that the transmission electricity right now is still very |
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| 180:12 | which is another, another critical If it's close, the power generation |
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| 180:17 | close to where it's used, it's a lot more efficient, but if |
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| 180:22 | far away it's not. And then course nuclear nuclear had the capacity in |
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| 180:28 | United States anyway. And uh and in France to just knock these right |
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| 180:35 | their socks. But but again, on the size of the country and |
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| 180:42 | size of the population, even the capacity that we have is starting to |
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| 180:48 | dramatically, except for a few places china. Okay, so here is |
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| 180:56 | 2019 leaders in nuclear power production terawatt . And um I didn't look it |
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| 181:04 | for 2020, which was published and October of 2021, But here's 2019 |
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| 181:14 | lot of times I asked the students do you think produces the most um |
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| 181:22 | power. And we've we've closed a of our power plants by the way |
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| 181:26 | one of my twin brothers, two of twins in my family and one |
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| 181:29 | them worked in nuclear power for a time and he's seen more closed than |
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| 181:38 | . But the United States is still leader in nuclear power production in terawatt |
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| 181:45 | . And note this is production that it's being used. It's not um |
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| 181:52 | know, it's not capacity that's wasted Francis moved up quite a bit uh |
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| 182:00 | the years. Um But there are 2.6 from 2018 and uh There are |
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| 182:10 | four when I started looking at this and which was a surprise to me |
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| 182:17 | But you know, we know that , most people know that Frances is |
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| 182:22 | 100% nuclear power, but they have much smaller population than say the United |
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| 182:28 | or china for India for sure. then the Russian federation is up |
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| 182:36 | South Korea is way up there, total, it's only 10%. And |
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| 182:44 | If it takes 10 years to replace , it's going to take 90 years |
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| 182:49 | get there. Okay, here is . Um this stuns a lot of |
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| 183:00 | , you know, you hear the media Approed that I'm pretty sure we've |
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| 183:06 | up from 2019 to 2020. But 28 18-2019, we were down |
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| 183:13 | almost 10%. And and let me you this this, this is |
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| 183:22 | Right, okay. What is This is in capacity, this is |
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| 183:30 | much they could produce If the sun shining 24 hours a day and uh |
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| 183:40 | a high intensive and uh a lot people, I don't know if you |
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| 183:45 | attention, but I bike and so know, but since I'm almost 100 |
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| 183:52 | old now, the, I worry radiation from ultraviolet rays and I don't |
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| 184:03 | if it's a good indication of, total solar energy. But the UV |
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| 184:12 | right now at noon is, is a scale of 1 to 10, |
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| 184:16 | about to ah in the summer At , it's somewhere between eight and |
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| 184:25 | And that intensity means that in the this stuff isn't, is going to |
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| 184:32 | as best as it's going to but it's still have, you still |
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| 184:35 | nightfall and and this uh, and in the, in the winter it's |
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| 184:43 | to just cut way back. You , you're going to lose a lot |
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| 184:46 | that power even even at noon in middle of the day and you can |
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| 184:55 | here Germany's up there, the United and since we worry about people making |
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| 185:02 | weapons out of these spent fuel which by the way are some of |
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| 185:06 | most, some of the worst pollution ever come up with is spent fuel |
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| 185:13 | and nobody knows what to do with . Germany was trying to go 100% |
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| 185:18 | one point in time. I'm surprised still this high, they had engineers |
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| 185:23 | them that the salt mines were going be stable and safe and they started |
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| 185:28 | salt mines, putting spent fuel rods salt mines and and then uh oh |
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| 185:36 | started to leak. So It was 10 years ago, I would guess |
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| 185:42 | around 2010 they decided to start shutting as much of their nuclear power as |
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| 185:48 | could and you can see it's it's up a little bit here but there |
|
| 185:54 | were trying to get um oops, looking at the wrong thing, I |
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| 185:59 | pushing the wrong button, I'm Yeah, Yes, I know what |
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| 186:11 | doing, I'm just not doing Okay. Yeah. Looking at nuclear |
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| 186:17 | Germany is not even on here. thought that looked weird. Okay, |
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| 186:21 | in terms of nuclear power, Germany off the list but they were trying |
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| 186:25 | get to where France was. And sitting here looking where's France, you |
|
| 186:30 | ? And uh so anywhere for solar , of course Germany is rising because |
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| 186:35 | trying to replace their nuclear energy with power. Okay then when we go |
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| 186:42 | wind again instead of production, they're capacity because they can't reach full capacity |
|
| 186:49 | it's a, this full capacity is bigger number than what they produce. |
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| 186:54 | you show what you produce, you they're not doing anything. But |
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| 186:58 | china china went up in terms of . Bye, mm hmm, 76 |
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| 187:10 | . Here's plus 10. Yeah, 10. This one is up |
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| 187:15 | This one's up 11.9. But um, here's something that I want |
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| 187:20 | to catch through. All of this say that the United States doesn't do |
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| 187:24 | for alternates. We're a leader in . We're number two in this, |
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| 187:31 | # two in this. And before started getting extremely productive like they are |
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| 187:39 | , uh, we were the number for all of these things and |
|
| 187:45 | can it. And so again, I'm trying to get at is these |
|
| 187:52 | , they're putting in a lot of . Uh, but they're not necessarily |
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| 187:56 | in a lot of production And this 25 percent of this is produced in |
|
| 188:03 | and this is up. Okay, , this is the number of |
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| 188:06 | It's up 11.9 gigawatts. This is 76 gigawatts. And, and |
|
| 188:16 | um, spain's no change. But course this wind energy is the biggest |
|
| 188:24 | to that power generation, the And so, you know, |
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| 188:31 | it's still not growing enough. It's growing fast enough to get to where |
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| 188:36 | want to be by 2030, much 2050. And here's, here's leaders |
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| 188:45 | geothermal ah, this may surprise you . But the United States is number |
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| 188:52 | because we have those hotspots in the the around the rockies. And then |
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| 189:00 | there's the Philippines Indonesia. And you that um Even though Iceland 100%,, |
|
| 189:14 | not one of the biggest generators, not even in the top list. |
|
| 189:21 | . It is, I'm sorry, even read. Okay, so Iceland |
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| 189:26 | all the way down here to seven so, And that's 2016 And then |
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| 189:36 | is 2019 and they're not in this is the list or not. |
|
| 189:44 | you can see here there Their number again down here. Okay. And |
|
| 189:55 | by the way is listed in in production here is hydro electric is listed |
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| 190:03 | production. And you can see that is way up there especially because they |
|
| 190:07 | that new uh the big new hydroelectric . So, and it's amazing engineering |
|
| 190:15 | . And Canada is way up I put Norway on here. Uh |
|
| 190:24 | to show you that they have a of terawatt hours coming out of |
|
| 190:28 | even though Norway, Norway's population is the same as south Carolina's uh they're |
|
| 190:36 | almost as much as India and uh about half as much as the Russian |
|
| 190:43 | and a little little less than that the US. And here's sort of |
|
| 190:51 | bottom line and this came from the and it kind of shows you this |
|
| 190:56 | from 2017 and that's a really nice . It's hard to get charged like |
|
| 191:01 | because this one really went to a of effort to to put in as |
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| 191:05 | of the costs as they possibly could even the even the hydrocarbon people sometimes |
|
| 191:14 | on these kinds of estimates. But the actual cost of this energy is |
|
| 191:19 | lot more than people think it And those were uh huh. These |
|
| 191:30 | these are things that you know, just costs a lot to to |
|
| 191:35 | And but when when you hear about cost of the news and I think |
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| 191:41 | need to do it but these things subsidized. So they cost a lot |
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| 191:44 | money and and um oil and anybody that works in the oil industry |
|
| 191:52 | it's not being subsidized and those they a lot of taxes. We do |
|
| 191:58 | politicians that I like for other Uh let's say that oil companies don't |
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| 192:03 | taxes. But all you have to is look in their annual report and |
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| 192:06 | can see they pay billions in taxes especially collectively collectively it could be close |
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| 192:14 | trillions. But in in there they all sorts of things like licenses that |
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| 192:21 | have to pay for all royalties, have to pay for all sorts of |
|
| 192:26 | . Uh And also building all these and designing all these things cost a |
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| 192:32 | of of um money as well. this is just looking at some of |
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| 192:38 | long the range comparing sources of different in here too. So in in |
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| 192:46 | , but I want to I want get across to me and um if |
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| 192:51 | guys actually um I'm gonna put the on there, if you want to |
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| 192:56 | me why population growth isn't a uh you could do that instead. |
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| 193:01 | write that when I think I'll add to the thing and post it probably |
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| 193:08 | . But entered something that everybody has realize is that, you know, |
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| 193:14 | the um the growth rate is not compound interest because the growth rate, |
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| 193:26 | doesn't if you just look at that , you're not taking into account that |
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| 193:31 | economy is expanding around the globe the time and as such, the the |
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| 193:39 | on energy is going to continue to , its going to get to, |
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| 193:44 | know, to possibly 110 uh million of oil per day for the whole |
|
| 193:57 | As it grows over the next 10 10-30 years, at least that much |
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| 194:02 | will be needed. Whether or not can find a replacement for or not |
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| 194:07 | another thing. And so as the demand grows, the piece of the |
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| 194:12 | has to keep getting. But it have to, it's nothing happens. |
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| 194:17 | has to get bigger just to keep 11.6%. But as that pie is |
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| 194:22 | bigger, it has to grow even to maintain just the 11.6% that it |
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| 194:29 | now and again about 6% of that be the total uh in the |
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| 194:36 | S. And in uh probably a bit less in the whole world. |
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| 194:41 | so as the demand grows it has grow even faster to keep up with |
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| 194:47 | demand that's growing plus the deficit between To 100%. And uh and I |
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| 194:58 | see how it's going to happen by in in any way And certainly not |
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| 195:04 | 2050. But but hopefully we'll come with with with good things. Um |
|
| 195:12 | hate to hear me say this, I think regulations might help a little |
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| 195:17 | because I remember as as a young the the EPA came into existence and |
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| 195:24 | made us get catalytic converters for And I remember in high school we |
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| 195:30 | these monster cars and I didn't know when I wasn't in a in a |
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| 195:35 | didn't grow up in a rich family a lot of the kids had these |
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| 195:39 | cars, They were getting 12 miles a gallon. And uh when they |
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| 195:47 | in the catalytic converters, those cars down to about eight mph. But |
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| 195:53 | know what the engineers figured it So uh we just need to hope |
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| 195:58 | engineers can in geologists you can start out ways to do this. I |
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| 196:05 | as geologists we could figure out things have to do with geothermal? We |
|
| 196:10 | figure out ways to convert methane two . 0. two when it's uh |
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| 196:16 | being contributed into the atmosphere. I any any if you captured methane that's |
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| 196:24 | uh coming off the planet And turned into c. 0. 2 quicker |
|
| 196:29 | it would happen. Methane does oxidize quickly. But it's still very |
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| 196:35 | Thing in the oil industry is in of flaring, they're still leaking a |
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| 196:39 | of methods. So in this thing agricultural production, I don't know how |
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| 196:45 | gonna deal with that as the population . Mm hmm. But um turning |
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| 196:53 | burgers into meat burgers. I don't it's going to be a solution just |
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| 196:59 | of the amount of Methane and in c. 0. 2 and also |
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| 197:06 | that are going to be put into atmosphere uh by the fact that we're |
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| 197:12 | um a lot of agriculture and a more. And again as as the |
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| 197:18 | grows the waist level unless we get , it's gonna grow too. And |
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| 197:26 | and here's another thing I want to hope this isn't too doom and gloomy |
|
| 197:44 | just take a look at this picture um it's an old picture I'll |
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| 197:55 | But I don't think too many photographers to take pictures of plastic in the |
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| 198:02 | . But just take a look at picture and um and we're talking about |
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| 198:11 | and we're talking about growth. Um you think of what's different from this |
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| 198:20 | in 2003, in terms of how people got this And what's going on |
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| 198:27 | now in 2022? Could you repeat question, sir? Okay, um |
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| 198:40 | I'll try to make it, what think is clear. Okay, you |
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| 198:45 | at this picture and you see that all these things that people have and |
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| 198:48 | using, they're using all these different of plastic. And today there's even |
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| 198:54 | , there's even engine blocks that are from plastics, but you have all |
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| 198:59 | plastic, all these things and we're to be sustainable. So what do |
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| 199:07 | think is very different about how these were able to get these things versus |
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| 199:14 | people get things today. In other , this couple right here went out |
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| 199:24 | bought a bunch of swimming pools and for their kids. How did they |
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| 199:30 | it? I would say um people nowadays, what did you, what |
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| 199:42 | you say? Meg? People are it on and nobody is compared to |
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| 199:46 | times, they used to go to , everybody orders everything online. Did |
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| 199:50 | else say that too? Okay, we're all ordering this online. So |
|
| 199:55 | , instead of having one truck deliver of this, I hope I don't |
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| 200:02 | anybody one truck to deliver all this They deliver it to a store and |
|
| 200:12 | a person goes and they get they to the store, they got all |
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| 200:16 | of stuff that they need and just they need and they take it |
|
| 200:19 | not just this, but you maybe they'll go and they'll get their |
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| 200:22 | , they'll get some toys, they'll lots of things that come in, |
|
| 200:28 | bottles, um, on and on on. And the way we're doing |
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| 200:34 | online now, there's two things wrong it. And I think it |
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| 200:39 | and you guys are probably going to I'm a real quick, but I |
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| 200:43 | think we have, I don't think have a shortage of truck drivers. |
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| 200:48 | probably have more truck drivers than we've had in the history of this |
|
| 200:52 | I think we have too many trucks stuff from amazon and delivering each package |
|
| 201:00 | a big truck. Every package, if you went to the, to |
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| 201:04 | store and picked it up and came , that's inefficient if that's all you |
|
| 201:10 | . But these trucks, again, , you know, they're driving around |
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| 201:13 | even though even though they have other , they have to drive almost that |
|
| 201:18 | distance and, and then some in big truck that has, has poor |
|
| 201:23 | economy and I know amazon is trying move everything to electric vehicles, but |
|
| 201:29 | , we have to replace that, , that hydrocarbon fuel with electricity, |
|
| 201:33 | don't have, and we have because right now, even if Tesla |
|
| 201:39 | running off coal power and uh, off and off natural gas power in |
|
| 201:46 | lot of cases. So so if we if we collectively as a society |
|
| 201:54 | to think about sustainability, we have think about the way we buy and |
|
| 201:58 | things to spend our money on things we don't need, and I don't |
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| 202:03 | to be again don't want to be , but one of my daughters orders |
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| 202:08 | online and uh maybe you're different, she doesn't always like what she |
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| 202:16 | so then it has to go back it gets thrown in the trash. |
|
| 202:23 | you know, again, if we're about sustainability, this picture is a |
|
| 202:31 | . If you think about how we're we're getting all of our stuff, |
|
| 202:35 | of ours, things that we don't and things that we do need. |
|
| 202:41 | and you know, managing our I think some people say like my |
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| 202:47 | where we used to say the past did this, you know, but |
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| 202:52 | know, we're all on this boat and we all have to work together |
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| 202:56 | single day and everybody is responsible for , if you're alive today, you're |
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| 203:01 | for tomorrow. So just remember And if you if you land some |
|
| 203:07 | these good jobs and oil companies make to to keep sustainability sustainability in the |
|
| 203:13 | of your mind every time you make about production of oil and gas and |
|
| 203:19 | the right way of doing it and somebody comes up with a rule like |
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| 203:24 | E. P. A. The I brought the E. P. |
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| 203:26 | . Up was because when they when came up with that role at the |
|
| 203:30 | of the day You know I have I have a diesel car right now |
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| 203:35 | gets 42 miles to the gallon and got a 3l engine With more torque |
|
| 203:42 | horsepower than I ever had or anybody in the 1960s when we were all |
|
| 203:48 | our cars to the drive in So sustainability. Really really it depends |
|
| 203:57 | everybody. Everybody. Everybody that's alive to think about it even in their |
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| 204:03 | life. And then when you get the job, you know whenever you |
|
| 204:07 | a chance to push people into options know one option might be to flare |
|
| 204:15 | methane and another option might be to worry about the leaking methane. You |
|
| 204:21 | speak out and speak up and uh uh try to be good citizens of |
|
| 204:27 | world because because we we are all now and we will be tomorrow. |
|
| 204:33 | on the same boat. So with I'm gonna let you guys go and |
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| 204:38 | see you tomorrow at 8:30 PM. you Professor. Do I need to |
|
| 204:55 | you upload a video to the video ? Uh No you don't. Um |
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| 205:04 | I've already I've already uploaded a test but I don't know if it's actually |
|
| 205:11 | what do you call it? They goes through a process and sometimes it |
|
| 205:15 | longer. Yes, But I've saved files. I know how to upload |
|
| 205:20 | . I've put the link in and . And if you're going on |
|
| 205:25 | you can, can you see my that I haven't deleted? Um, |
|
| 205:30 | . Give me a moment. I can see the, the fire |
|
| 206:01 | but I cannot open it. Just only. Mm hmm. Oh |
|
| 206:08 | Okay. Yeah. Let me ask this. Do you do you see |
|
| 206:12 | files from 2021 went on blackboard or points Justin blackboard? Oh, you |
|
| 206:24 | go to blackboard because it's linked to . Yes. So all they have |
|
| 206:29 | do is go to blackboard and, it'll be there. I can see |
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| 206:34 | your is a lecture file From Okay. Um, those, those |
|
| 206:43 | invisible to the students presumably. Yeah. Yeah. I guess I'm |
|
| 206:54 | have to call somebody and find out there's, if, uh, |
|
| 207:07 | yeah, it says test only and can't open it. Yeah. |
|
| 207:19 | but she just went to video points you still couldn't open it. Right |
|
| 207:26 | I mean? You went to video and couldn't open it. I can |
|
| 207:32 | up. So yeah, you inside record is your face, right? |
|
| 207:40 | code to record your, yeah, just me. Yes. I can |
|
| 207:46 | it now and and you show the , there's two slides Of the Chapter |
|
| 207:57 | the Lesson one Right? Yes. , I can I can see the |
|
| 208:03 | works right now. Okay, if it works at video points, |
|
| 208:09 | probably have to reboot um reboot this it's probably the catch is probably keeping |
|
| 208:14 | from opening. The difference is that I looked, when I open the |
|
| 208:20 | on blackboard, I in unlocking when open a video points and after I |
|
| 208:27 | into my account on video points, video can work. So did you |
|
| 208:35 | in the video points account when you you click the Okay, I see |
|
| 208:43 | you're saying? Yeah. Normally I because once you do it one time |
|
| 208:47 | don't have to do it again. . Yeah. So I think you |
|
| 208:54 | maybe he said the reason why that be. Yeah. So I'll try |
|
| 209:01 | . But um yeah, I have file to load now. I'll try |
|
| 209:05 | load that right after we get off . Okay. So a woman, |
|
| 209:12 | about regarding the coffee next week, I need to bring anything like water |
|
| 209:20 | coffee powder to the classroom? well we have we we have coffee |
|
| 209:28 | . It's only the parts. we have we have coffee makers actually |
|
| 209:33 | pot. And uh what we normally is fill it up with, fill |
|
| 209:40 | up with water from one of the stations. What about the the coffee |
|
| 209:47 | the powder? The coffee grounds. , I've got that. I get |
|
| 209:55 | Starbucks bags, £2.5 bags for almost at Sam's. Mhm. And so |
|
| 210:01 | have that and we like to have water for the students to mm |
|
| 210:07 | So, well, um we'll go and try to uh get that |
|
| 210:13 | We had some but the construction people most of what we had. But |
|
| 210:18 | can I can order some more. , so, so we'll we'll take |
|
| 210:24 | of that next week. Early next . Okay, Like monday and monday |
|
| 210:30 | I'll try to start doing it if we um normally what I do is |
|
| 210:35 | get Uh huh. Marcia had to it and it usually comes in a |
|
| 210:43 | of days if it doesn't, I'll by Sam's and just get some water |
|
| 210:47 | that weekend. And we we don't a lot of people. So we're |
|
| 210:51 | going to have to order, You , we had 30 people. We |
|
| 210:54 | to order a lot of water. , everybody would take two bottles and |
|
| 210:59 | would be like, Like a case enough. You know, I'd get |
|
| 211:04 | packages with 36 bottles and we'd use to 2 every every class period. |
|
| 211:13 | uh so I don't I don't think have to worry about too much in |
|
| 211:17 | of volume. And we used to two or 3 coffee pots at a |
|
| 211:24 | , I think with this group when pot will be plenty. Yeah. |
|
| 211:29 | the coffee will last a lot Okay? And then we have to |
|
| 211:34 | some creamers and and things like And I'll be taking care of |
|
| 211:39 | too. But thank you for It shows that you're responsible. Thank |
|
| 211:45 | . Okay? And thank you for help. You just bye see you |
|
| 211:50 | . Okay? Well, yeah, see you tomorrow. Bye |
|
