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00:00 Thank you. 30%. Yeah, is you present. There we

00:18 Ok, Lord. Have mercy. sense. Ok? I knew you

00:26 needed a break. So I this was all staged. I never

00:32 mistakes. Ok? Even when it like I do, all I can

00:42 of is while I was trying to my cursor, I hit a button

00:44 shouldn't have hit. Has my cursor ? Uh Let me uh let me

00:51 Jay to make sure he doesn't. I'll call him this. We found

01:08 cure and maybe it won't happen for 45 minutes. Ok. Bye.

01:20 . I did find a new magic by the way. So that

01:24 So anyway, we're gonna talk about as a resource and one of the

01:28 that I think is really important. you're gonna go looking for oil,

01:32 important to realize that we still need . And um one of the most

01:40 things about society today is that uh know, we have an infrastructure that's

01:47 on liquid energy sources and we're trying move it to batteries and uh it's

01:54 huge task. The task. the task is the, the task

01:59 huge. There's no reason for not on it because it's huge. But

02:05 is a reason that people be aware we're not working on it fast

02:10 We're not doing everything we need to to switch to electric cars yet.

02:15 , we've done a lot of Some people think that we have done

02:19 in the past. There will be set of slides that I'm gonna show

02:23 in here that shows that the United has been the leader in carbon free

02:30 realm longer than anybody else. Uh everything. Uh We're either number one

02:37 number two or we're at number But uh 10 years ago, 15

02:42 ago, we were number one and and it'll stun you. Uh when

02:46 see what things we are. Number in, in other words, who

02:50 you think was the number one country for geothermal energy? Everybody thinks Ice

03:00 , Iceland is 100% electric electricity does you have to the fair amount of

03:07 energy and, and their, their to, you know, that that's

03:16 our production totally in a different league . Uh I don't know what it

03:23 when they get on the news and explain things to you. They don't

03:26 explain them to, to you the way and it's not that they're lying

03:30 the facts are wrong. It's the . It's the way they're looking at

03:35 and I, and we'll, we'll to a couple of things, but

03:38 kind of let me give you a , we will, um, we

03:42 consider, you know, you heard an inconvenient truth and the fact that

03:46 have climate change is an inconvenient It's the truth, it's there.

03:52 , but see, I think even convenient than that is that in our

03:58 to solve the problem, we have idea. I don't think the

04:04 you know, too many people even it and some people go, this

04:09 a massive problem. We shouldn't do , try to fix it.

04:13 it is a massive problem. So need to fix it better as soon

04:16 possible. Any time you, you a, it's like a,

04:23 everybody in the United States had hot heaters. You know, we all

04:28 to go to contact heaters, you know, ones where, you

04:33 , flames right there, bits right . You don't have a tank,

04:36 cold and then it's hot, You had to change everybody's hot water

04:42 . That would be a massive undertake a global scale. And that's the

04:48 . This is a huge, huge of a problem. And how many

04:53 , you know, for example, many, about how many barrels,

04:56 of barrels of oil does the world every single day? I'll give you

05:10 rough number. 100 million barrels every . That's a lot of oil

05:18 uh, somebody drops off 2 3 million here. It, it's

05:23 like, you know, you just turn your sprinklers on. I

05:26 it, it's catastrophic, it causes , there's a ripple effect all over

05:30 world. And, uh, and what part of the problem is.

05:35 , uh, and we'll get to of these other problems based on the

05:39 and, uh, not based on perspective. Uh, a really unfortunate

05:45 is that the people that are uh alternate sources are not pushing them

05:54 right way. They need to do and they need to do it

05:57 Not just push it, they need push it the right way because we're

06:02 doing, we're saying things that make sound like it's not too bad.

06:07 explained some of this in painful detail one of my friends in a wine

06:11 group of all things and I finally him to understand what the problem was

06:16 he was, he started to He says, don, I need

06:20 , I need hope. And I , there's not hope if we don't

06:24 , we don't address the issues and to the solution as long as we

06:28 we're ok by, you know, up 10 more windmills or 1000 more

06:36 . We're not, we're not touching problem at all. We're just,

06:39 just sort of playing along with the and not really doing what the herd

06:46 and that's what's really scares the hell of me because I know global warming

06:51 weird. Is real. In I was explaining to people and then

06:56 in 2004 and five, I was these hurricanes are gonna get bigger because

07:00 gonna be, there's gonna be more in the ocean. It's something really

07:05 . Uh, it, you it doesn't take a rocket scientist to

07:08 you put more energy into the You're gonna have more dra dramatic and

07:13 uh hurri uh uh clim uh weather and uh and they are weather

07:19 they're not, those are not necessarily , but individually, the climate is

07:25 a lot of places and that's where becomes climate, climate is a,

07:28 a broad area thing and it's also over a dramatic amount of time.

07:34 a paleo climatologist of sorts and uh climate change is a millions of year

07:43 . We're seeing something going on now almost instantaneous in geological time then.

07:49 not a little problem. Ok. , and everybody has to be on

07:56 . And uh so uh we're recording uh that's interesting was that in the

08:03 before earlier that wasn't up there? it? Ok. So that's actually

08:11 the way it's supposed to act. . Uh So one of the things

08:19 I really went, you understand is importance of hydrocarbons in society. And

08:27 so we're gonna look at some what a resource is versus a

08:32 Uh What peak oil is peak Um not very long ago in the

08:41 nineties all the way through May of , uh people were worried about peak

08:46 and, and uh I'll have to to you when the peak oil

08:49 but it's a delicate balance between demand production. You know, when you're

08:54 oil and gas, what's happening to reserves, right? So the

09:03 the patient gets ahead of discovery, get to a point where you cannot

09:12 to produce the amount of energy you . And so peak oil is when

09:16 reach that point, when your depletion is higher than your new production,

09:24 ? And we'll go into these inconvenient as I started. And uh this

09:29 the part that really upsets me. fast are the hydrocarbons being placed in

09:34 overall energy mix. So we're gonna on the United States because we are

09:41 one of the richest countries in the . We still, if anybody would

09:45 the capacity, the financial capacity to a change in the US. And

09:50 on a terrible family and we even it more than anybody else. We're

09:56 , it's just um and uh and we'll, we'll look at where the

10:00 stands now and the rest of the in terms of some of these

10:04 And uh and it will give you idea. Uh, I hope everybody

10:10 depressed. If you think about it much you will be. But,

10:15 , but it's, it's important for to understand. There's a reason why

10:19 , we're going to work every day looking for oil and gas is because

10:22 don't have the energy to replace it . And, uh, uh,

10:27 are, uh, well, I'll into the details because there's a lot

10:32 , there's a lot of problems with we look at it, how we

10:37 at the information and it keeps us understanding what the real situation is.

10:44 . And this is just uh looking the, at that in the

10:49 we're gonna be looking at the uh of hydrocarbons in, um,

10:55 I got this out of something from State in 2022 but I don't know

11:01 what the date of these numbers but these numbers change quite a

11:05 Uh But what it's trying to show is set out of a barrel of

11:09 and the world's using about 100 million day. Um This uh this much

11:17 to half of it goes to gasoline that's what we're trying to replace with

11:22 . We're trying to replace uh all that gasoline energy with batteries. And

11:28 down here in terms of that, just little tiny amounts. Uh I

11:33 this may be down to 45%. , uh, if you got a

11:37 modern one. when, whenever I a graphic, it makes it look

11:41 it would be an easy thing to . Uh Just it is, it

11:46 always, it's not always updated as would what it would be. So

11:49 I won't have uh 2021 or 2022 2020 20 just because nobody made that

11:57 and I just don't have time uh go in and, and create all

12:01 , uh, graphics on my Uh, but anyway, you can

12:05 that it goes to a lot of , this other products is,

12:09 things that include plastic. And, , this is an old picture

12:15 uh, National Geographic, uh, lot of these toys we don't use

12:21 and things like that. But it just kind of gives you an

12:24 of it and even the, deciding on that house is supposed to

12:28 vinyl. And, uh, this from, uh, 2003,

12:32 3. You know, a lot people were worried, you know,

12:35 not gonna be able to make plastics if we use up all of our

12:39 . And that's why the peak oil a problem in 2003. Everybody was

12:42 about it. Ok. What does take when we run out of oil

12:51 ? When the, when the, , prices start going up? What

12:54 it take? It takes imagination from like you and, uh, you

13:03 new resources and new uh frontier exploration based on people not following a uh

13:09 workflow. They're doing exactly differently from everybody else did so that they can

13:17 to a place that no one thought was anything there and find it.

13:20 so it's really important to, to that kind of a, I wanna

13:24 something new attitude. OK. So is a resource? And it's basically

13:32 that's concentrated enough and it's not, gotta be natural occurring for it to

13:37 a natural resource and it's gotta be concentrated enough that we can produce it

13:42 use it. And uh um people go out and broke the oil,

13:50 just because you need oil, they to make money. Companies don't exist

13:55 income and uh and people don't have unless the companies make income. Uh

14:01 can argue for years about um why do some of the CEO S

14:06 too much of uh what comes out the and not giving it up to

14:10 people that actually find it? Uh uh and that is a, that's

14:14 social issue that should be addressed. at the end of the day,

14:18 resource is about something that we uh it's naturally occurring like trees for

14:24 . And uh and we can figure a way to grow or produce uh

14:28 raw material and make the things that need uh to live. The lifestyles

14:32 we live and lifestyles is a very part of this whole problem too.

14:39 , so when you take the resource , and I'll, I'll start,

14:43 know, trying to use hydrocarbons in . It applies to anything.

14:49 we have ones that are discovered, have ones that are undiscovered.

14:57 this could be so big because we know. And every time somebody discovers

15:02 over here it's because they did something and you look at a place nobody

15:06 to look. And uh as, the world is now, it seems

15:11 be getting smaller and smaller every But we're still in places that just

15:16 blow our minds uh where we start there and we figure out what little

15:22 conditions made it happen, that oil preserved and that's fine, you

15:28 volume, he can do something, just a little thing, the size

15:32 this room, but something, you , millions of barrels, even billions

15:37 barrels of OK, because that's what takes. And uh some of them

15:45 sub economic, some are uh economic uh the difference between economic. And

15:53 really is, this is sort of the borderline between whatever technology we have

16:01 well enough that we can make money we produce it. Uh I remember

16:07 when I, before I moved to , I, I discovered um helped

16:13 a few other people. It's not of the walls. I found mine

16:17 we, um, uh, uh, sort of the,

16:28 the plan of the kingdom there, , you know, all of it

16:32 gave it all away to his company first. But, uh, offshore

16:39 , uh, we found a field that has 60 million barrels of

16:43 . Now, if you found that 4000 ft you gotta take off.

16:47 think the other guy out. It's all right. As long

16:52 as long as I don't touch that's why I'm over here. I

16:57 . Yeah. So any, uh uh back when uh when that

17:05 discovered it wasn't enough, it wasn't , but there, there was no

17:10 . And uh and then what happened uh well, I was gonna say

17:13 in Texas, there was 4000, , wait until they find something that

17:19 pulled out 5000 ft. You could all sorts of environmental problems with

17:25 But uh in Texas, you you might be able to grow a

17:29 , well, relatively shallow into something 60 million barrels. You would be

17:34 before but over offshore to the it's a tough environment to put a

17:41 on. There was no infrastructure, were no pipelines to look into

17:45 Uh Then a little bit later I went over and started working in

17:49 and uh that was still helping. One of my friends was able to

17:54 uh and uh uh we help do more characterization and we were able to

18:02 get it to where they could make because simply because they put some pipelines

18:06 uh to uh produce the natural gas the northern part of uh the south

18:12 had a pass through uh Danish waters it had been allowed to replace the

18:19 , stuff like that at the same because pipelines could be as expensive as

18:23 of the other stuff we do combined to find and produce oil pipelines are

18:30 expensive. Ok? Because you really to make them so they don't leak

18:36 because when they leak, you lose and uh and cause all kinds of

18:41 . Now, uh the US Geological , uh if you don't know

18:45 uh if you, you can do any time you're working anywhere almost in

18:49 world, sometimes they evaluate stuff in countries. But in the United

18:54 there's all sorts of things that they uh that no one's drilling. And

18:59 and like in the uh the Atlantic claim offshore uh East Coast, they

19:07 done the number, they've done at five or six really broad brush uh

19:13 of how much oil gas should be there. And uh it's the number

19:17 higher and higher as we, as uh look at a little bit more

19:22 . One of your uh examples of exploration will come from the east

19:27 OK. OK. So uh what's important to remember though is resources.

19:39 this big pie out there that we off but reserves is something where we

19:46 , we can cut a slice of , leave enough behind or make enough

19:50 , then we any better use of product. So we deserve our special

19:55 of uh total resources, resources out . Uh If the price of oil

20:01 up all of a sudden economic, me go back to this thing.

20:11 time the price of oil goes this line goes in. Ok.

20:18 it doesn't go down really fast because the price of oil goes up,

20:22 the service companies charge more money to to uh to provide the services because

20:27 realized there's a, you know, more value in what they're doing and

20:31 wanna get a share of it. uh and so this line doesn't drop

20:36 that fast. But one of the why we have cycles because find a

20:43 of resources, there's a lot of and there's more production in the price

20:49 . And then when the price goes and we lay everybody off, uh

20:53 becomes harder and harder to get that million barrels a day during COVID,

20:58 was down to 80 million girls. uh that was a great help for

21:02 climate. But uh in the price you know, for people in the

21:07 , but it, it didn't help oil companies when, uh, when

21:10 was a huge demand and, and it made the price go down

21:15 the price goes down, this line up. Ok. So,

21:29 again, that's what it is. , uh, here I'm not gonna

21:32 all of this out. But, , but I think it's important you

21:37 , but you need to read these , uh, get online and make

21:40 you read them. But, uh have uh a total amount of reserves

21:49 basically we will list them sometime as and probable. And some of some

21:55 us also was possible. I know I was a geologist, we did

22:00 three and it was really a percentage of uh survival. Um This usually

22:06 if we knew where another uh oil contact was and we had a good

22:10 a good characterization of reservoir. In words, it was a, it

22:14 a pretty good reservoir. Uh It easy to pick out what was

22:17 And what was uh if uh in case, uh maybe if we had

22:23 fault block next to it and it like it was the same situation for

22:27 same way. But we didn't have well in that, that fault

22:31 we have the OK. And uh when I was working in South Marshal

22:38 1 28 we had wells uh that full of oil and we didn't know

22:44 to do water to kind. So didn't know the bottom or what.

22:48 , uh, so stuff that was below, uh, that depth,

22:53 lowest occurring, uh, oil, , would be proved in that

22:58 And how far we thought the oil contact might be, might have been

23:03 , in the case of South Marshal 1 28. Um, I thought

23:08 were a lot of stratigraphic traps turns were the fact that it was able

23:12 show we were able to drill more get more oil, which was one

23:15 the reasons why I was very successful that, with that field. Uh

23:20 that in way before the turn of century, we uh we were producing

23:28 traps in South. I don't remember year I tried to look at

23:34 It must have run away but somewhere 2002 uh a BT front cover of

23:42 PG. So your business that's discovering in um in South Marshall. And

23:49 in first thing I did was then it went to your, maybe

23:57 guys figure this out. We were this. We were doing this back

24:01 time ago with geology and uh and don't point that out to um to

24:09 geophysics. I'm trying to let geologists that there is, there is a

24:14 we have to make in the geoscience help the geophysicists and they certainly have

24:19 huge contribution to help us uh, Oil and Gas magazine. Ok.

24:30 are probability of success and, and lot of times that is,

24:34 related to what you think the the whole, uh, is gonna

24:39 . And of course, um, know, you may say you're

24:43 um, you know, any, as well. P 90 would

24:50 It depends on the company. and that's what research are usually about

24:54 they really actually classify this because each has its own set of rules on

24:59 to do it. And uh a company, they will have a different

25:03 of different areas. You know, haven't talked about players yet, but

25:08 different plays, you can expect to certain kinds of recovers and uh that

25:13 factor uh can have a lot to with, with these terms. And

25:19 , when you decide as a football , football, football reserves, uh

25:23 very strict uh issue with the and of the economies uh because you have

25:30 be really careful, I can tell that uh when I was working on

25:36 Marshall in 1 28 uh their proven were distant and I was asked to

25:44 it. And then I took all shale cars out as you know,

25:49 were doing gross sand instead of net to calculate the reserves. In other

25:55 , about 300 ft of sand was engineer that was a 300 ft uh

26:03 container at 26% if it was so then to remove a lot of

26:11 , the, and so again, went, my boss and a few

26:16 people. How do you deal with ? How do you do it?

26:18 . Because that's what I'm being asked . They told me how to

26:22 uh, it wasn't using math, was using your eye and looking at

26:26 lot of characteristics and, uh, I reduced, uh, this

26:32 uh, South Marshal 2028 doesn't work about 45%. And, uh,

26:43 can put in the books. Two later, the federal government said Mobile

26:48 converting more oil into the new oil they can charge higher prices for.

26:53 was back when we had a tiered that new oil is worth more than

26:57 could sell new oil for more uh, and then, uh,

27:02 two days later, the president of Corporation down the New Orleans and wanted

27:08 talk to the guy who took away of the in this. And

27:15 um, I'm pretty sure I'm not , but I'm younger than I was

27:20 than most of people. This Oh, my goodness. And,

27:28 , and, uh, and so came and, uh, this big

27:33 and of course they had a, . So to do that.

27:45 uh, so, um, make long story short, we got honored

27:50 the Federal government for a thinking about blessing. And so I got

27:57 I got a really strong paddle pack that. Not only did I stick

28:01 neck out but it was, but was worth and products. And,

28:06 , so that was a lucky, lucky step for me. And

28:10 then I proceeded to, uh, go find Strat graphic traps for,

28:14 was a very good thing too Ok. That's a good question.

28:23 it's, it's about the definition of really. Uh probable means it's like

28:30 possible means that and that's exactly what is. And that's where you come

28:37 with. And uh but drill a , this possible could turn into recruitment

28:45 , or it could be a investor When you say probable. Uh for

28:52 , uh I sorry, Tessa, won't be able to see what I'm

29:09 on the board, but I'll try speak up. Do you think you

29:16 move um the camera? I don't why, but chalk was very

29:21 So I have a special, this might be an easy thing.

29:37 . Oil water contact is down here because of data or something. Uh

29:43 have a reason to think that stand . So this would be the bottom

29:46 the residue in your oil tank would there's a fault here. So your

29:54 column is actually this time and uh oh straight before you guys. Thank

30:13 . OK. So you, so have a well in here and you

30:17 , you wanna make all of this except um you only know there's well

30:22 here. So you don't know your follow. Another thing that you might

30:28 able to do is based on the and the type type of ceiling that

30:33 have here in the, you may able to calculate how far down that

30:39 be that you can go, you , based on the strength of our

30:45 , you don't have any pro so prove that in this case would be

30:49 . Yeah, this is, ok. Now down here, there

30:57 be a trap. They have a dog saying, so there's shale in

31:07 . And so you have this whole . So if you're going to,

31:10 , some, some, well, miles where other places you might see

31:16 other word is missing because of the physical strategy of and uh and

31:24 you have reason to think that some that might be that they will

31:30 that might be possible, but it to be, that has to share

31:35 they have to prove that was for Charter. You know, you might

31:39 the traps right down there on the over here, but I'm close to

31:43 reservoir, but there's no oil in . And more importantly, it's

31:49 it's not at the right depth to up with the. Ok. So

31:53 not interconnected with this a completely different . So at that point, it's

31:58 because it has been discovered. I some that were 300 ft thick with

32:05 ferocity. And man, they were and uh seismic couldn't see it.

32:12 if you, you know how to false and pinch outs in uh in

32:17 correlation log correlations, you, you uh you can figure these kinds of

32:21 out and you'll have a, an like that. OK. Yeah,

32:31 gonna, I'm gonna give you some the worst blogs in the world,

32:33 the worst, the worst. They're ones I worked on in my

32:36 But the um that they're uh they're uh on a shore field in

32:48 Yeah, the gambler response is let me for OK. This looks

32:58 stretched out but it still works. This is called the resource Pyra Pyramid

33:06 basically it kind of shown you there's little fuzzy area but here's unrecoverable.

33:10 in place. It is technically In other words, we might be

33:15 to drill that heat, but it cost too much. And this is

33:20 can drill that deep and still make , that kind of thing. Uh

33:25 or uh this could be, there's pipeline here and there's not a pipeline

33:32 and because there's not a pipeline here put an FSPO or whatever, it's

33:37 of floating in there to uh to it might be too much. Of

33:41 , those things have actually uh was , producing ships have uh made it

33:49 of course to produce oil in places are very remote without points circumvent uh

33:57 things that are technically recoverable, but were financially. And so here is

34:04 economically uh recoverable resource and then, you have to actually do it,

34:11 have to find them. And here says proved and probable reserves and a

34:16 of people aren't gonna put the Like I said, I did this

34:20 I would have found this impossible. , uh, it's a,

34:25 it's, it was really a lot fun. Every Monday we would,

34:30 , we would have the whole department together and go over the wells.

34:34 drill down last week. One that in. They, yes. So

34:40 up at three o'clock in the morning Saturday and, uh, and you

34:45 to come in and show them you know, 200 ft feet.

34:50 , uh, and I got to that next to people that were showing

34:54 , um, it's a dry it's a dry hole. So

34:58 I had a little bit of How impactful is that for a

35:03 The driver. How, oh, depends on the company, depends on

35:09 company and it depends on how, much of an investment it was.

35:13 there are, you know, like , $2 million wells, you

35:16 that are on shore that, that very deep. And stuff like

35:19 It's not, it's not so Uh, and, you know,

35:22 of them are gonna be 34 million and stuff like that or even

35:27 it's like, um, some guy trying to get me to buy into

35:31 $10 million. Well, and, , the, uh, you

35:37 that same, well, probably would been when I, when I started

35:40 would have been a million dollar. , or even less. Uh,

35:44 , the thing is, is that you're at the upper end, like

35:50 to frontier, when you do you know, we know less about

35:55 . Uh, it can be re risky. Um, the deep water

35:59 off, um, around the turn the century. And, um,

36:07 , at one point in time their was in Search, I don't remember

36:10 their last, the last name of oil company was, but it was

36:14 , a fairly good size independent and put all their money into two deep

36:20 . Deep water was the word, know, it's like students would come

36:24 to me, come to my office say doctor, I wanna,

36:28 work on a deep water and I , put, put deep water,

36:33 the deep water and I go, , well, what do you,

36:37 uh offshore Africa, Trinidad with deep , just deep water, you

36:44 they, but everybody heard deep So we were doing a lot of

36:48 water stuff and uh the deep you know, they, they got

36:51 the, the shelf break and they , they were drilling this a lot

36:54 stuff on the slope and mini basins stuff like that at the time.

36:58 , uh, but uh the management this company thought, you know,

37:03 just need to get into deep So they put, they put $60

37:07 in, into, they got 50% 2 $60 million wells, $60 million

37:13 the company. They lost $60 million they were. But, and there's

37:17 lot of complexities there. And uh when I, when I uh teach

37:23 biography, it says shows some people it was so complicated. But uh

37:27 won't, you won't get that example this class. But anyway, um

37:33 that's, it basically depends on how big of a risk you

37:37 And uh large oil companies can go bigger risk because they have bigger

37:44 uh bigger income, you know, have a buffer. Uh when I

37:48 working at a, we just received billion from uh from uh Iran for

37:54 settlement of them, taking our land us. And so we had a

37:57 of money to play with and that that a little bit easier, but

38:02 most companies don't have that kind of . Ok. Um OK.

38:12 uh next thing we're gonna, let's , we talked about how do we

38:15 it? We're looking at resources and and uh now we're gonna look about

38:19 oil and peak oil. Is that ? And um, and um it's

38:29 , it's a really tricky, uh think because people relate to, you

38:34 , the global demand, the whole . What I'm gonna show you is

38:38 example of the United States because that's it got, you know, we

38:41 the biggest user and one of the producers, but not at that point

38:45 time, but we were, we using more than we produce. So

38:49 were susceptible to people. So it's pretty good example. But the whole

38:53 at any point in time, uh could change and we could be there

38:58 . It's just that the way things right now, it almost looks like

39:03 , peak uh su supply is, uh well, the, the chances

39:12 us getting to peak demand right now uh very low because we've got a

39:16 good supply going right now. And somebody named Hubert and it happens,

39:27 to in English decided they call this oil when you get to that point

39:32 there's an advance where, where you're completing more than the meat that they

39:36 to the reserves. And uh but spite of that, um in 18

39:43 I liked this chart. Uh I this, I got this chart um

39:48 that paper and, and it goes for three more pages, but I

39:51 show one just to give you a of it. But, uh,

39:55 was really, uh, first place they started, uh, producing

40:00 Well, few years later they, did it, uh, a couple

40:05 years later we did it in But my fa, my mother's family

40:11 up in Pennsylvania and I grew up the United States. We never heard

40:14 Romania though. First, the first was, was in Pennsylvania when I

40:21 in that perspective, you know, don't see the whole picture.

40:25 we think we see it but we . And uh and here it says

40:30 commercial oil production, Canada and uh came in not, not long after

40:36 . In other words, people were more and more things to do with

40:40 . We were killing off all the , uh which is where most of

40:43 whales were coming from uh before And uh realizing that we need to

40:48 so. Uh but here is the us geological survey was formed in part

40:55 fear of oil shortages. Hey, people knew what the concept of peak

41:01 was. We just didn't have a name for it. In uh 18

41:06 engineers estimated there's only 95 million barrels oil remained and uh they're producing 25

41:14 a year. That means we're gonna peak oil in four years. That

41:19 true. We actually uh if you're replacing it, you're already at that

41:24 . Um And then all of a in 19 01, someone drilled,

41:28 is when we started realizing that we drill a lot of the earlier wells

41:32 where we had seats of oil coming . And, uh, but then

41:37 figured out we're gonna go look for , you know, and any client

41:42 any client that's gonna be um where uh where we grow because obviously,

41:52 in the gulf coast of what is , yeah, those things can cause

42:14 uplift. No, and there's layers this and there would be pockets of

42:29 right here. And then, and and this was a very simple

42:37 some people would look for these lines , you know, um Pierce junction

42:41 can see is just in the south here. And uh and it's uh

42:48 know, especially if you get up they get up one of the high

42:52 sound, you can see it there of it. But uh more so

43:01 , you know, you can drive and I think, you know,

43:05 ft above sea level than this. all of a sudden it was

43:09 you know, put that, put salt, push it up. And

43:15 , uh so right around this point time, that was the name of

43:21 game was to go find all these and build them. Uh many years

43:27 in, in the uh, probably eighties and the nineties of,

43:30 19 eighties, 19 nineties and some the places, some of the,

43:36 , for us in the, around, uh, Indonesia and

43:42 New Guinea and places like that, would see these and they, they

43:45 able to do, uh, the , uh, helicopter pilots would go

43:51 there and, and fly and they'd these things and, uh, they

43:55 , they were retired at the of course, but they would see

43:58 little, the trees were all like somebody would cut it, uh

44:03 a salt marsh. You know, , the grass grows in a certain

44:06 but it was sticking up for something set up and all the trees would

44:12 , you know, almost or, know, that was how they first

44:17 the, some of the areas that the places like that, but uh

44:24 lot later than this. But uh they would come in the ground here

44:28 of course, the big oil companies try to buy up on that

44:32 And uh as it turns out how people know who found with this

44:37 those big contributions, you say, know, the old people, you

44:53 , right? I'm just guessing. , um, like real. Uh

45:01 , um Oh, ok. that, that would, that would

45:09 . So anyway, this was the . So here's Johnson just down the

45:16 uh while the company on this thing um, Roy Marshall, uh his

45:26 man. So the big companies just on the land. Well, he

45:30 , well, what about the land to it? So what's really

45:34 He said, well, go and it. It's cheap. And so

45:37 bought all the land way up in on this north, south east

45:46 The mineral turns out all of this , well, all down here.

46:05 at it for the club. what contact around it? What does

46:16 look like? It's like a It's called the donut. And he

46:21 the donut and, uh, little like that. Anyway, uh,

46:34 Collins became one of the richest families they kind of just, ok.

46:47 , it would have, it would been, um, it would have

46:51 , I think it was after this that I think it was in

46:55 uh, maybe the forties, thirties forties. I, it, it

47:02 have been too, too long before I'm pretty sure he was still alive

47:06 he, um, when you donate lot of money to you. Of

47:11 . Well, let's see. That have been actually not, yeah,

47:15 would have been. Right, right 2019 19 because, uh, he

47:20 donating money for sort of like a college in 1927 and then it was

47:25 called University of Houston in 1934. he donated money before that and,

47:31 , um, and when, um, when they started, you

47:39 , building this university. They, I went to school here and way

47:45 , uh the school, the, original origin, original date of UFH

47:52 considered 1934. But then they you know, it'll make us solver

47:57 we go back to 1927 when they started to build it. And it

48:01 called the University of Houston, but became the University of Houston and it

48:04 also a private school at first, think. Ok, so here's kind

48:15 what peak, peak oil looks like the United States. And uh maybe

48:21 we get through this, we'll take bigger break since we've been in here

48:25 for about two hours. And I had a chance to take a real

48:29 . But uh here you can um here's what we are producing and

48:37 kind of what the predict prediction was uh uh for where we drop

48:46 here's, here's a total us production . They're looking at uh some of

48:51 lower 48 stuff and uh here's how meant down here uh as we were

48:57 into 2000 and of course, we getting more and more wealth from the

49:00 East. So there was, you , at that point in time,

49:04 did say the United States that you have to get oil from somebody

49:09 And uh and that was pretty obvious that's one of the reason why the

49:14 of oil in this period of And, um, yeah, when

49:22 started working about, at this point time, I guess about how much

49:27 barrel will cost $4 per. in, uh, from here to

49:42 it went to, uh, it from, from that number to somewhere

49:47 $50 a month, something like And then around here somewhere we went

49:52 , you know, started to get post, of course, you

49:57 recently been over that. And and of course, uh before

50:01 the price of oil dropped dramatically, , oil dropped so much around the

50:05 2000 that uh we're gonna take it . Oh, but again, that's

50:17 because a lot of, a lot geology went into trying to fix this

50:23 . And so the geologists, all big oil companies in the United States

50:27 going international and they started finding oil basically they do a good job.

50:33 , um, if you catch me a party, you hear me talking

50:38 somebody, they'll say, what do do? I teach a couple of

50:42 once it sound like I said, , the price of oil is high

50:50 over, the price of oil is to make sure they get the

50:58 And, uh, so that's uh I see that one. I

51:04 it said that the price of oil slow. It means we are too

51:10 , the wrong things. It's Yeah, now I think the right

51:25 . Ok, 100 and 80. need, I need to get a

51:28 . So uh the price of oil up. Um, you know,

51:34 know that we're, we're getting to point of oversupply. So I tell

51:40 and again, it's just a It all give them a lot of

51:43 . So we'll start finding one So uh keep them and,

51:52 and then when it gets slow, know we need to get it back

51:55 , we need to find. so talk about how the prediction on

52:02 how far is. Yeah, I gonna get to that, but

52:10 I'm just showing you this because this where the United States kind of reached

52:14 oil and we went out and got stuff and um but um here's what

52:23 happened. Um It was coming down this, it looked like we reached

52:30 well. And um uh as we getting down here, we were starting

52:37 discover new fields in uh Brazil million fields in Brazil. We were finding

52:42 field in South Africa, South West Africa, we were finding uh

52:47 oil fields, uh sub salt and and uh under and in front of

52:54 salt uh down on the slope. off the road, we were doing

52:58 lot of stuff and so we were a lot of oil. So in

53:03 , right at this point, I asked, am I worried about this

53:06 oil? And I said no, I gave him a whole bunch of

53:10 and ho uh BBC S Horizon, it's like uh the United States

53:16 and I, and uh so they didn't want to interview me because

53:20 they put me on V because they me to tell them that this was

53:23 happen. And I told him, , it's not gonna happen. And

53:27 uh it started taking off, you see the whole thing, but it

53:30 taking off because of those discoveries. then of course, by about 2012

53:35 events changed the whole world in terms them. And you're talking about risk

53:40 all that. One of the reasons potentials uh became very favor. A

53:46 of what is because he almost The problem is the, the drum

53:54 each hole produces own so much oil uh then it's, and uh the

54:01 the production curve on a unconventional will very short compared to that eventually.

54:11 so the risk is low, but report is we have to be dr

54:17 so we spend a lot of money get their property, but you never

54:21 $60 million in. And uh so somebody that understands how to deal with

54:30 and cope with risk and has the cash to do it. You

54:34 it's, it's like the stock you can go out and dump some

54:37 in 10 shares. Nine of them be losers if one of them,

54:42 one of them is, uh, Intel or one of them is an

54:46 , uh, it doesn't matter that other one is possible. Ok.

54:53 it, it takes it in the industry, it takes management that

54:57 is not risk, averse management that how to, how to cope with

55:01 building. In other words, you don't put all your a in the

55:06 because like the example I gave you socks, you know, you,

55:10 grow 10 wells. Um they all a high price rate on. That's

55:16 add one of those. That's how discovered it. Uh When I was

55:23 at Amaco Amico ended up throwing in towel because the, the CEO we

55:27 at the time did not understand and we came up with a,

55:32 think, um they call it a fall to the prospect. Quality team

55:39 saved it and wouldn't actually destroy That's everything that we looked at a

55:46 of success down around 20 just, know, I, I feel this

55:52 a big oil company. And uh if you had one of the

55:58 I'll show you was one where we $2 billion of will. If that

56:02 quality team had been in place when that uh prospect came up,

56:06 would never do it. It was biggest discovery in the South China Sea

56:10 and still now to then. So um here is uh showing you

56:18 of on a global scale what they peak oil is gonna be and uh

56:23 think we're gonna reach it somewhere Uh They had it written on here

56:28 but it was around 2022 or something that. We've already, we've already

56:33 , but we haven't hit people because keep finding more of it.

56:36 technology is getting better than geophysics, past it. And, uh,

56:42 our workloads work even, even if , even if they're sometimes,

56:48 but uh, there's always, and , and there's always these companies like

56:52 . Now, big people are looking big prizes, they give them a

56:56 of in place that technical work and has made lots and lots of money

57:05 a smaller scale. Um, but the CEO is, is one we're

57:10 in in Texas. Still a, a good thing to do through

57:16 uh, through this course, you hear me say a lot about Hill

57:19 . Does anybody here work for Hill ? That's a shame. We,

57:23 used to have somebody from Hill Corp every, uh, every group.

57:27 it will happen again. Ok. why was diverted? Well, there

57:34 a big drop in demand in uh 20 08, 29 because of the

57:39 slump. Um There's been uh in places including China and other parts of

57:45 world, even Europe. Now, there's been reduced economic growth and COVID

57:52 uh from 2020 to 2022. Uh a man dropped 20 million girls and

57:58 , that's a lot of, that's whole lot of work. And um

58:05 is this slide is getting to be little bit older, but with Brazil

58:11 West Africa, the Deepwater offshore um probably nobody in here realizes that

58:20 , a democrat proved offshore drilling offshore Beach, Virginia, where I grew

58:26 and really retire. Uh, an oil company, anybody here work

58:35 oil company named, see that they 11 lives. They made, they

58:42 11 short. Um, you we have an oil industry, we

58:49 safety 11 quarters. It's almost a that the, and, uh,

59:01 is a, no, they it was merged for, they

59:08 in fact, when they merged uh, a $2 billion surplus in

59:16 retirement. So people like me and feel pretty, I know,

59:30 uh, we also like the, was I said this but I,

59:39 , uh, but he had a million you can't take surplus, but

59:47 you work with another company, you're to, uh, reset. Here's

59:57 piece of a piece of, I believe that too. I think that's

60:01 really, and the, uh, guy that I was CEO of

60:06 I don't know whether they actually call a group commander in chief and Royal

60:11 Goddess, uh, something like But, um, uh, he

60:16 said is we will realize in $2 surplus the people in the middle

60:29 you know, um, but, , what they did was they,

60:32 laid off a lot of people, , to get retirement so they can

60:36 that, that $2 million. I 11 months shy. That is arguably

60:46 of the best physics that ever They teach us. Uh What,

60:52 uh he uh he was one year , I, I could almost understand

61:00 getting rid of me because I was cranky about it. But uh but

61:04 , I don't. Kurt marker was of the people who developed the 3d

61:08 tube and uh 3d seismic wasn't what is today until he developed some of

61:14 technology and got it patented. So let's take the um real

61:23 Uh I, OK. I'm uh , let me finish this chart.

61:32 uh the Eagle for all of these unconventional. Uh And, and I

61:38 to mention just in the last couple years. Um Guyana and sodium on

61:45 northern part of uh South America has opened up billions and billions of barrels

61:51 oil. Uh They had uh a of uh what you would call disappointing

61:58 over the last 15 years. You , they like, you know,

62:01 drilling, but we're not finding anything somebody hit a necessary target. Huge

62:09 well charged from a regional source uh, a classic play that anybody

62:15 never miss. But they kept missing in the wrong place. Somebody finally

62:21 in the right place and then they in the right place. They look

62:24 the rocks at that same age all and down that coast line and it's

62:29 block full of, uh, of . It's huge. I've heard it

62:35 that, that this area right it's gonna be worth more than,

62:41 um, all of this and all this put together. And that's a

62:45 . I think that's last year. were pretty much I think.

63:03 I know. It's, it's, huge but you know, it,

63:07 like the, it's like the you know, once, once you

63:10 the pattern and the design, the is here is your question.

63:18 uh, and that's exactly what's happening here. It's just exploding.

63:23 uh, and now everybody that didn't into it is trying to get into

63:26 . And the companies, the big that were uh brave enough and wealthy

63:31 to uh, to keep trying to found something. Ok? And

63:38 we may get an online student at point in time from, sir,

63:42 maybe more than one or two because been uh calling and asking about this

63:50 . Ok. We'll take a break . I'm gonna take uh a 20

63:55 break just because it's been quite a and I didn't get a break when

63:58 guys got a break. Hello, . Are you there? Yeah.

64:20 , I went and, uh, up the, uh, the people

64:24 the, uh, advising office uh, asked them to find out

64:29 you haven't been, uh, registered , but it should be soon.

64:33 . Good. Yeah, I'm, starting to get worried about it.

64:37 , I am myself, I so we keep, the university loves

64:42 make rules to make it hard to things. Yeah. Anyway, we'll

64:49 back to this. So we, , oh, that's just exactly what

65:00 need right now. Problem is I see it. Ok. It

65:28 Why is it on that screen? . Uh, I'm glad I have

65:35 new computer. Let's see. here we go. And,

65:43 anyway, we, um, I'm have to try to sit down more

65:47 , uh, I have bad knees my knee is really killing me.

65:52 , I do like to get up be animated. But, uh,

65:57 anyway, we got to this, slide and we're coming here and we

66:02 kind of talking about this, earlier and one of, one of

66:06 issues they're low risk that the problem unconventional is the drawdown is very

66:12 And, uh, I made a of, uh, figuring out what

66:17 percent was over here. So about about one year, 60% 69% of

66:22 production is gone. And, uh, and then the,

66:31 water cut gets really high and here's another deal. Uh, before

66:35 had unconventional wells, if wells were something around 50% water cut, in

66:42 words, it was half water, oil, uh they would set the

66:46 in and uh let the reservoir start charge back up with unconventional. It

66:53 work that way. Unconventional. The comes with water, it doesn't come

66:56 water, it doesn't flow very The water is part of what creates

67:01 some of the a temporary porosity uh in the uh system. So uh

67:07 lot of the wells will start out 50%. Uh of course, a

67:14 cut and uh as they produce it this curve, that water cut keeps

67:19 up and up and up and And what that means is you have

67:22 keep disposing of more and more waste . And uh one of the technological

67:27 that all the companies are working on is ways to recapture that water recycle

67:32 , clean it. Uh It used be considered too expensive, but it's

67:36 what we just don't have millions of of water uh to, to uh

67:43 water to pull out of an aquifer have, have enough water for the

67:47 in agriculture and all that kind of . So, so uh that technology

67:52 get to the point where they're self-sustaining , and uh if they do that

67:55 be great, but it's, it's take a lot of cost right

67:59 Um A lot of the injection wells 12 $12 a barrel uh to inject

68:06 . Some places it could be, could be even higher. So that

68:09 another cost to the production of that that's ever diminishing. OK? Here

68:16 um uh one of the projections on oil demand. And uh here you

68:24 see obviously this isn't gonna happen and can see that this started going back

68:32 . So now the curve kind of kind of across that, that uh

68:37 of time, almost like a straight when you smooth, smooth your averages

68:44 . Um But uh here you can , oh I'm not on the right

68:52 . OK? I have two slides front of me, some. So

68:55 you can see this is kind of , you know, we had that

68:58 dip smoothed out, it doesn't look bad. And here uh you

69:02 on a tighter scale, but uh if you um project it in the

69:07 , this is what folks think is happen. This was BP in

69:13 And um I haven't changed that. One of the, one of the

69:18 I do like about BP is they a really good um summary every year

69:24 uh the 2017 numbers would have come in 2018 or 2019 because it takes

69:29 while for them to get the then it takes a while from the

69:33 . And uh, so you can't get the good stuff, but here

69:35 can see that it doesn't look like oil is imminent in the near

69:42 And um, so peak demand is , is really the issue.

69:48 if the demand goes away, then production can come down and it doesn't

69:55 . And uh you can barely see what happened here in 2020. You

70:01 see the curve kind of came down little bit, but the global demand

70:05 . And again, this is not US curve, this is the world

70:12 . So uh it's not something we to worry about right now. And

70:19 which is, which is a good . And uh it's also um you

70:23 , if, if the alternate energy start doing a better job of replacing

70:30 of this, then then that will uh leave pressure uh reduce pressure on

70:36 the possibility of peak demand. And here we are um these predictions came

70:46 in January 2023. I thought there be something new or usually there's something

70:50 June. I couldn't find anything in or I would have popped it up

70:53 . I had this ready for my in the spring and um but I

70:58 seen anything uh recently on projections, I think I think they're kind of

71:04 OK. Here, you can see is the world production like this and

71:09 , they were back then uh expecting it might, might take off a

71:13 bit any time there's a gap on side. Uh In other words,

71:19 production right in here being uh higher the world consumption, which is down

71:29 , that would be a surplus. uh when this was, when this

71:34 done, I think they, they a bit of a, an idea

71:37 they were gonna have some issues going uh because of the war in

71:42 But uh some of that's kind of out right now. I personally think

71:48 that there are other other forces involved could cause problems. The United States

71:55 uh seems to be booming through this and everything, even though people say

71:59 not doing well, our GDP is , which is, you know,

72:06 much uh the reason for uh for I just said and, uh and

72:12 you know, everything's running along It's uh something you typically see.

72:20 um when, when a lot of factors are going really well, uh

72:27 is, is a real hiccup and causing problems just because it increases the

72:32 uh deficit because we, we, money we borrow has to, you

72:38 , we have to pay it out more money. So the interest rate

72:40 up against us, it goes up the banks and it goes up against

72:44 the banks around the world. And increases in interest rate actually can have

72:49 negative impact on the economy. And seeing a little bit of that.

72:58 , so now I wanna get that's peak oil. So now I

73:01 get to inconvenient truth. And um think, I think more than anything

73:07 population is really the problem and uh is just showing you uh this is

73:14 um pretty much um uh I think the top 11 economic countries plus uh

73:23 China, which is another big But um you can see that um

73:29 lot of growth is, has been on in population. India is

73:34 all of Africa is growing. Uh here is growing slowly but you can

73:39 if they, when they project uh you get the tail end that

73:42 don't see over here. Uh so it kind of smooth it out and

73:47 can see that on a on a term thing, China's population is gonna

73:52 growing. And part of the reason is that uh people were allowed at

73:57 point in time, people were allowed have one child. Now they're allowed

73:59 have two people that are, that agriculture allowed to have more Children,

74:04 always been allowed to have more But uh as long as their economy

74:07 doing well, I think their population gonna start going up as well.

74:12 , uh, and I think, that's one of the things that we

74:17 to be, uh, you if you, I call this an

74:23 truth because if, yes, if go to what it used to look

74:29 , and this is a chart that's identical to, uh this chart over

74:34 is almost identical to what Al Gore . And he didn't mention that this

74:38 a problem. He uh simply mentioned CO2 is going up. But uh

74:45 think it's very clear, I don't what we can do about it or

74:50 we can do anything about it. it's very clear that population itself is

74:54 single biggest reason we're having problems with environment. And uh uh if,

75:01 all of our cars were running on uh salt water, uh we'd

75:06 have problems because of the population that have. Uh it, it creates

75:12 , a tremendous burden on um on just if you just consider the agricultural

75:19 that uh that comes with having to a lot of people. And uh

75:23 know, a lot of us wanna over to, to vegetables instead of

75:28 and you know, that creates its problem too. And uh it's,

75:33 uh you know, I guess the is if, if you grow crops

75:39 feed the cattle, uh you also to deal with methane from the

75:43 Whereas if you just grow crops, have to deal with all the methane

75:46 the crops. And, uh, a lot of people aren't aware that

75:50 creates a huge footprint and we don't work and we don't even worry about

75:55 or talk about it because we we don't have meters out there measuring

76:01 much rotting, uh, vegetation is on top of a, uh,

76:06 top of a farm field. We , uh, and in the

76:10 a lot of people didn't realize that you just take, you just uh

76:15 farming equipment and turn the soil you're releasing CO2 and uh and methane

76:21 the atmosphere because the bacteria is, destroying it. You doing?

76:25 back there? Yes. OK. , uh so this, this again

76:33 , is uh is uh something that think is an issue. Now when

76:38 was, when I was born, probably shouldn't show you this. But

76:41 I was born, that's about where curve was. And um uh you

76:48 , we're at about 2.5 billion people uh big chunk of them lived in

76:54 . And now, um as of 2022 we're on the red curve.

77:02 when I was teaching this in the 2020 this, this number hadn't

77:07 posted yet. It takes a while people to uh to get all their

77:11 together. But, but that's where was in 11 2022. Just a

77:17 months ago, several months. Um about, about half a year

77:22 And, uh and some people were that it's probably gonna go like this

77:28 it might go like this if it like this, I'm afraid there's only

77:32 reason that would cause that and I want to even mention it.

77:36 uh, but I think, uh is, is something that we have

77:40 uh deal with more than just I think everything that humans do is

77:46 a problem. Um, you um, again, its perspective,

77:54 had a committee, the sustainability committee this campus and they got a bunch

78:00 uh history teachers and English teachers and a couple of scientists. But I

78:04 think they got an engineer and they if we got um, toilets that

78:09 only half a gallon or a gallon of the two gallons or whatever,

78:13 save a lot of, a lot water. Turns out half of the

78:16 doesn't have the pressure necessary for those to work properly. They finally got

78:22 uh about 10 years later, but , for 10 years over in,

78:27 our building and some of the buildings here you had to flush, you

78:30 to flush at least twice to get to work if not three times because

78:34 pressure wasn't right. So an engineer have known that was a problem day

78:40 . But a whole group of people to solve the problem. They don't

78:43 understand, came up with the wrong and putting those in now that we

78:48 the pressure up would be really But for a long time, we

78:51 wasting a lot of work. And and again, you have to understand

78:57 what the problem is before you try solve it. OK. So,

79:04 so we all know that around 18 the um we had an uh industrial

79:15 where we started burning hydrocarbons. Uh just oil but coal, we started

79:20 coal. And then uh a few later, we started hitting the heavy

79:25 the uh liquid fuels. But uh besides burning hydrocarbons, it started with

79:31 industrial revolution started that also has a uh somewhere between uh 30 to 35%

79:41 all of the anthropogenic hydrocarbons come from I think that we don't even measure

79:56 . What do you think started to on a global scale in the developed

80:02 ? First, it had all the . The timing is kind of interesting

80:19 . We started having more and more farming and the more mechanized farming,

80:24 had, the more fuel we had burn, the more mechanized farming we

80:30 , the more we overturned the fields , the more we uh did a

80:34 of things. But what else So a whole bunch of things started

80:44 happen in the industrial revolution, not burning hydrocarbons, but turning over the

80:50 , doing a lot more with But we also started to put uh

80:54 , we uh for flood control and irrigation, we started damming rivers and

81:00 started drilling lots of wells. And you think about water coming out of

81:06 well and uh water not being allowed make it to the ocean into the

81:11 water, you're creating volumes of water can evaporate quicker and go into the

81:18 quicker. So, uh all of things related to uh in a certain

81:24 to agriculture were taking off in a way too. And uh you

81:29 when you get in a car and burn 20 gallons of gas or 10

81:33 of gas, it's measured, somebody how much, how much we

81:37 how much we produced, how much burned. But uh figuring out how

81:41 CO2 is being released in a field not really understood. Uh One good

81:47 that's happened recently is a lot of has reverted to uh methods that do

81:54 turnover of the field. Uh because realize that they're actually releasing gasses into

81:59 atmosphere on a huge scale. Just if you go into a rainforest,

82:06 down all the trees that are pulling out of the atmosphere falling down,

82:12 and returning a little bit of it the plants that are growing on top

82:16 them. But at the same it's sequestering a lot of CO2 just

82:20 if you go in and plow that . So, this CO2 sequestration area

82:27 now a CO2 um emissions area on major scale. And, uh,

82:35 the rainforests are not only important so we have beautiful trees and cute little

82:40 living in them, uh, in nasty ones too, by the

82:44 But it's also important, uh, , uh, sequestering CO2. And

82:53 I've added this slide and I, I don't wanna go ahead and read

82:57 , but I would invite you to it because it's a lot of

83:01 But, um, there's gonna be billion people. Uh This is,

83:09 is how quick it went from 7.4 too long ago to eight,

83:13 And uh because this slide isn't that 2012. And, uh and

83:21 um, when I say population, of the things is we have to

83:27 everybody, you know, we can't food and no matter what we

83:31 we're gonna need to have hydrocarbons in food. And so we're gonna have

83:35 grow and raise and, and uh uh uh hydrocarbons and um 30% is

83:45 to how much transportation puts out. uh and I'll bring up a couple

83:51 other points, but uh population by is, I think without a

83:59 the single most important uh aspect to , you know, if, if

84:05 can't, we have to learn how deal with these, these increased

84:10 I mean, our technology has to rapidly. And, uh, you

84:15 , one hope is is that artificial might help us. The problem with

84:19 lot of problems with artificial intelligence is averages data that could be good with

84:26 that could be erroneous. And, , that's one of the problems that

84:29 still have with it. And, , and I, as you saw

84:34 , we were struggling with artificial intelligence was operating on, on in the

84:38 in this computer. Uh It doesn't work out well. OK.

84:44 another thing, uh and I put in here in, I get a

84:50 of pushback on it. But um number one greenhouse gas on this

85:00 almost as soon as things started living it was, was water and the

85:06 one greenhouse gas 100 years ago was . The number one greenhouse gas today

85:12 still H2O and a lot of atmospheric have been ignoring this, this

85:19 Some of them will tell you you know, temperature controls humidity

85:25 and then therefore the volume uh so can't be the problem. But

85:31 that's a very um naive way of at it. You know, Nobel

85:36 have said this and the problem is that, that would be

85:42 Yes. The relative humidity of the everywhere was the same number all the

85:50 . In other words, if it always 50% 60% or 100%. But

85:55 isn't. There are places, that are 0% because there's not enough

86:00 source. But if we're putting new sources close to the surface, we're

86:05 , we're, we're producing them out the ground, just like we're in

86:09 of, of gallons and barrels. , a day of water is being

86:14 to the surface in well. uh, and a lot of people

86:18 , well, it just rains and falls down. But, but you're

86:21 sequestered water supply and putting it in atmospheric supply. And that's why it's

86:26 problem. And uh and it it may take certain people a while

86:33 , to grasp that. And part the problem is this uh the

86:37 the people that wrote these papers and this research uh on the slide before

86:42 got a lot of pushback. But it turns out, people are starting

86:45 realize they were right. And, , and we have a real issue

86:51 . OK. And uh and there can read this too, but I

86:54 much said what was the most important of it? But I do uh

86:58 that you read this because uh if read the, if you read parts

87:02 the book and look at most of slides after hearing the lecture, you're

87:07 , you're gonna get a, a or above in this class, but

87:11 nobody ever gets above a 90 on , on the uh test in my

87:16 . So I'm hoping you guys are be a great group and you actually

87:21 study some of this stuff when you a chance. OK. So uh

87:29 next big thing is the pace of replacement by carbon free. You can't

87:34 it on here, but it says free alternates. OK? And uh

87:40 really address that you need to kind consider how much energy we need.

87:44 what is the mix of primary energy ? And I'll show you some pie

87:50 . They don't come out every But whenever, whenever somebody publishes

87:53 I grab it so I can put in here and uh keep it

87:57 I've been doing, I've been keeping of this since, since 2002 to

88:01 to get a handle of in, 2002. The data was from

88:05 Um get a handle on how well , what's, it's kind of like

88:08 scorecard on how well we're doing to the hydrocarbon part of our mix with

88:17 . And uh I'm gonna show you example from the US again because uh

88:22 anybody can do it, it should us. And uh if I put

88:27 whole world up there, the scorecard look worse. OK. Here.

88:34 Here is uh just uh what's really in recent past, the US was

88:41 leader in, in uh in wasting . And uh China is definitely overtaken

88:47 United States. And again, this to population and the other part of

88:52 po population was GEP. I forgot mention that I want to slide before

88:58 . I showed the G A as the G GDP of any society goes

89:08 , investing product goes up. In words, wealth as wealth grows,

89:12 consumption grows. And so the more we have on the world and the

89:18 equitable we are with the way uh society is the more likely that we're

89:24 have to increase in the, for foreseeable future. Uh that apparently we're

89:32 doing a good job of replacing uh the moment. And um, so

89:38 think this is sort of, this the problem that faces us. The

89:43 is, is growing, it's red . That's the best way I think

89:47 put it. And uh and countries have limited GDP are exploding and uh

89:55 hearing really good things about India. economy is starting to explode and its

90:01 has exploded and they uh they now work and uh and uh unless these

90:09 uh don't like the good life and know that's not true. Uh that

90:14 is gonna have to grow and their rates are gonna have to go

90:18 And so India is going to be for uh energy from other places even

90:25 than already. OK. So here uh energy by uh source and this

90:38 in, uh, when was it ? And, uh, this was

90:44 role of petroleum pain natural gas. , this would be essentially oil

90:50 uh, some of the, lighter, uh, yes, the

90:55 gasses, uh, lighter liquids. , uh, and, uh,

91:00 was 23%. Nuclear power was renewable energy was 6%. And if

91:10 take that 6% and break it down this, what's real obvious alter?

91:20 think, we think we're solving a by using biologists. Unfortunately,

91:28 you burn it. We get CO2 . Um, yeah, then we

91:33 to take grease of the oil and and throw it out on the street

91:39 let it evaporate. Right? You that? Not good at all?

91:54 . Ok. Well, anyway, , uh, I think what's really

92:01 is that in terms of, alternates that biomass, right? There

92:06 50% of, of what they make . Yeah, that's not really helping

92:13 there. Uh, when, when started working at Mobile, a lot

92:18 people, uh, are unaware of , but, uh, back then

92:23 actually had, they were the largest , a lot of the patents,

92:28 this is why we have to, , tags now. And,

92:34 then I don't think they would have to where they are now, but

92:36 had started and back many decades uh, Mobile was one of the

92:43 feeders and, uh, and they producing, um, some of the

92:51 . And, uh, and we're about wait for 2000 and,

92:56 but it was an economic debt. , uh, now, now it

93:01 because, especially because we've been But, uh, that's something that

93:08 and, uh, another thing they with this biomass, they were trying

93:12 , uh, figure out how to , um, biofuels, uh,

93:19 back then too. What do you happened? It's still happening today.

93:26 , uh for you to produce biofuels , it takes almost as much energy

93:31 in some cases, more energy to like if you're you doing sugar

93:36 if you do sugar cane in Brazil they have people um have to be

93:41 how I say this, but they have said Brazil, I should have

93:45 countries that have very cheaply. Uh do sugar cane in Brazil, you

93:50 actually do it with people instead of and you actually get a, it

93:55 becomes a good alternate source. Uh of the main reasons for doing this

94:00 because we thought there was gonna be oil, there's pe oil and you

94:04 have enough oil, you gotta make some happen, this would be

94:08 but it's not really green, it's alternate, but it's not really a

94:12 alternate. And uh it's really hard get that point across. And uh

94:17 this is what they're doing. Uh is what we as a society are

94:22 to try to reduce that 39% that of that 20. So,

94:34 um, so up to that then we go to 2016 and,

94:45 , here you can see, and I had more slides,

94:51 further back too, but if if I take, take all of

94:55 , but here we, you can of understand this thing. Now,

94:59 , this is cold and juicy, also, we can see it.

95:09 it's, it's down here. but yes, it's, it's lost

95:12 numbers but it's lost it. petroleum is up here and natural gas

95:16 expanding. Uh, one of the things about natural gas is it,

95:22 , often can be, uh, less, uh, co2,

95:27 when you burn it because it produces , more heat or, uh,

95:34 and, uh, and this, produces a lot more CO2 to get

95:38 same amount of energy as the standard . In other words, it's

95:41 it's mostly hydrogen and, and, , if you think about it in

95:44 real simple way that hydrogen is sort a factor, um, that

95:50 creates the energy, it's really, really burning hydrogen, uh, when

95:54 burning, uh, natural gas and , uh, and the other side

95:59 it is, uh, and of course, you know, you

96:02 a long likelihood change and stuff like to get the, uh, some

96:08 the, uh, tubes that come of the refineries and stuff like that

96:12 the CO2. So you have, a lot of problem or problems when

96:16 using the A and, um, this is a reason why natural gas

96:23 , should still be a big And, uh, here you can

96:29 the biomass has been reduced down to here. And, uh, and

96:37 has grown a little bit and so and so forth. But you can

96:41 here that all total renewable energy and of it's a little, a little

96:46 , just a little bit more it's cleaner. Uh, but if

96:49 just take the clean things, um, things that are carbon

96:55 uh, has gone from, 3 to 5.4% for a, for

97:02 average of 2.4 over, um, years. Uh, we've gained almost

97:09 much and over those years it ends in, um, uh, this

97:17 the carbon neutral part of it. that by the, by the,

97:21 , by the number of years and 0.16%. Uh, it's grown

97:28 So, what it, what it , what it means is this,

97:31 pie has gotten just a little tiny bigger and displaced a little bit more

97:37 this than it did, uh, year. Ok. So, and

97:43 15 years it's a total of So, in 15 years, what

97:48 is it gonna be? 38? about 35. Yeah. So,

98:00 we have all these targets for How are we gonna get there?

98:05 . So I think, well, , we were just starting to do

98:09 renewable stuff here, which we weren't , but we were putting more thought

98:15 it was basically what happened. And , we, we were always doing

98:19 lot of renewables that were uh carbon , but never, never nearly enough

98:26 we have to do. So I , well, what about the last

98:29 years when we, we started subsidizing and just dumping money in it like

98:33 million billions if not trillions of And so through 2019, renewable energy

98:41 up to 10%. I mean, to 10%. And uh so from

98:49 to 2019, it gives you four . Um the carbon neutral increase is

98:58 a year. And uh and that 2020. So if you take all

99:04 that though and average it out 2020 COVID. We had the drop in

99:08 . But if you take that whole of time, it's been increasing.

99:14 . It's not, it's not It's 0.2 it's less than 1% it's

99:20 than a third of a percent. multiply that times 10 years. If

99:26 keep growing our supply as much as have so far, we still will

99:31 achieve um 100% about 30 years um in 30 years, we would

99:41 uh 11th, I mean, three , it'll take three years just to

99:48 a little bit over three years to 1%. So, uh this is

99:56 growing fast. There's no way we achieve the replacement of all of this

100:02 and the demand of this energy is up every day. So the population

100:08 that the man continues to rise, you like it or not, it's

100:14 . And uh and I, and wouldn't know how to stop it.

100:18 be honest with you, people would mad at you if you said you

100:23 to cut back, you know, gonna be the hardest thing in the

100:26 if we do it. And um , so that's, that's sort of

100:35 underlies this and that, that's why , I'm very worried and uh about

100:40 we're gonna get to where we wanna . And um but there's, you

100:46 , you're listening to this and it makes no sense to you because you

100:51 hearing we built enough windows to how house with a million houses, we

101:00 enough power to power the city of . Generation right now is at a

101:09 low level. But one important not very many people. Once we

101:16 driving electric cars, there will be efficiency involved in it, but there's

101:22 inefficiencies in the distribution of electricity, you might be able to replace less

101:27 all of this and still have the feet running, but the car feet

101:31 only one part of it. And other thing is, is,

101:36 people to talk about renewables like to you power generate what they wanna tell

101:42 what they can do with power And, uh, that's, that's

101:46 of the, um, unfortunate things about, uh, the,

101:54 perception that we have of it. , you know, when we're told

101:57 , you know, they have enough power a million people's houses. Uh

102:01 not, uh we don't look at big picture of the whole energy

102:05 This, this is all not how generation is a small part of

102:13 And uh and I'll show you some and um, and then I,

102:19 did, I did do this one for 2020 to show you that

102:24 if we, um if you get of 20 million barrels a day,

102:35 the contribution of renewables goes up and basically happened because 20 million barrels uh

102:43 disappeared from the OK. And here , um this is something that I

102:55 out of the Wall Street Journal. wouldn't recommend reading the editorial pages in

102:59 Wall Street Journal, but the, data that they put in the Wall

103:02 Journal is usually pretty darn good. have, uh they use excellent

103:07 Have a lot of, I have lot of faith in their reporters and

103:13 So we were looking at 2020 this where we were and this is where

103:22 have to get by 20 fif 50 we uh are gonna do this and

103:28 are we gonna do that? we're not gonna, how are we

103:32 get a third of a percent of increase to do this? This is

103:35 amount of money it's gonna take to you're spending 1.2 trillion, Um be

103:42 to get to that point. And , and that's uh um that's a

103:48 of money and that's just looking at economically. Technically, when I look

103:56 this thing, I don't know how gonna do it technically, but financially

104:01 gonna be a huge burden as OK? And, and uh one

104:07 the uh exercises I'm gonna uh hand to you guys probably tomorrow is that

104:13 would like and, and this is gonna be something that takes you a

104:16 of time. But what you're gonna is get online, look at some

104:21 , whatever, look for some real . It can give you some insights

104:26 our, the challenge and also our solve there's real data out there.

104:33 You can totally disagree with everything I . As long as you have data

104:37 show, if you just focus on generation, you're gonna make it look

104:42 I tell you why. But it's , it's just that power generation is

104:47 small part of our overall need. uh and, and here's, here's

104:54 thing. Uh uh the next thing wanna show you is, you

104:58 where, where do we stand right ? And uh and these are the

105:05 that don't have perfect foots. And the US is not the leader right

105:13 because of a lot of things that happened in China. But we've been

105:17 leader in these things uh since, , since the day I was

105:23 And uh so it's, you I often sense that people think we

105:28 work on this, but we've been this for decades and in fact,

105:33 half a century. So here is meters in nuclear power production and um

105:47 numbers um basically are, are showing how much it's gone up recently.

105:56 I think in the last uh year so, but the US has,

106:00 still added some tera watts. Uh has fallen down a little bit.

106:05 when we, normally, when you about it, everybody thinks France is

106:09 be and uh France, France hasn't the leader uh in nuclear power,

106:15 France, France produces about 100% of electricity and they switch over to um

106:26 cars. This number can't keep going . This number is gonna have to

106:31 up. Ok? And it's, it's not, they're, you

106:35 they're worried about the environmental impact of course, has built a lot

106:39 nuclear power plants, theirs has gone 100 and 20 watts. And of

106:47 , uh, uh, if you about it, you know, they're

106:51 catch up with us pretty soon, definitely gonna surpass, I'm sure

106:56 within another year they're gonna surpass And, uh, it produces about

107:06 of the, uh, the world's for electricity and that's, and,

107:12 all of that energy goes into electricity the way. So this is 10%

107:19 all of our energy needs. So just even from this chart alone,

107:24 can kind of see that nuclear power cover all the electricity, but electricity

107:29 that big, big of a park to transportation and other things, excuse

107:39 . But this is just uh this just over the last uh the last

107:44 it's switched since uh since uh I know if I have the other

107:48 I don't have another chart here. used to have a whole bunch of

107:51 almost like. But uh but uh , this is recent growth or a

107:57 or all that, you know, , some countries are making progress with

108:02 , some aren't. But again, the, the one technology that we

108:07 have that could start filling the gap be nuclear power. And uh most

108:12 are very frightened of uh nuclear power good reason. OK. Here is

108:20 photovoltaic energy that there's also um uh energy to straight. Um uh where

108:30 heat water, sunlight and stuff like . Um, I even helped my

108:35 feel very good build. Uh Solar had, had a little, it

108:46 a personal which really focuses the the sunlight that this glass ball would

108:53 water in it and it would start boil and the would come out

108:58 but it was, it was a to do it if you had like

109:03 turbine and they can spin. So, uh but that's, that's

109:08 the other type of uh solar energy . But uh the TV is the

109:12 that we're really hoping. Uh but you can see um the US uh

109:20 one point in time uh was at top, China has been um installing

109:26 even faster than me. And uh , there's huge fields in Georgia and

109:30 , when I drive across the country a year or two to uh South

109:35 , you see a lot of solar fields and stuff like that, but

109:39 still, you know, it's, still, it's kind of a big

109:43 for power generation and power generation is small part of the energy. And

109:53 this one would be plus or minus 2016. You can't see it.

109:59 , it's back there and that one think was just over the last few

110:06 , the last year. Ok. here is um it's wind energy.

110:19 . Let me show you something. is another thing about perspective. What

110:27 that tell you what is the word here? It's called, this is

110:33 much they produced. This isn't how they have capacity for this is how

110:39 they produce. If you have solar wind, they tell you capacity,

110:46 never tell you production because production would impress you because that's another thing.

110:51 only it's a contribution to power a small part of the total

110:56 but also they don't even tell you their production is because production of solar

111:01 wind uh month to month is never than 30% of its capacity. So

111:08 , if you can imagine nuclear power every nuclear power plant worth of

111:13 we had to build three nuclear power . Can you imagine how expensive that

111:18 be? And um so here you see um this again its capacity,

111:31 was production. This one is the . Ok. Yeah. Was sitting

111:39 full capacity the whole time. That's it would produce. Almost never

111:47 might happen a couple of days in row. Uh But it doesn't happen

111:51 , for a month, a couple years ago. Now during COVID,

111:57 the wind stopped blowing in Europe and were in real trouble with uh with

112:02 power up because because uh if you have air conditioning, wind can do

112:06 pretty good job on keeping your power up. But uh the heat went

112:10 and the power went, uh went and uh and, and they were

112:15 to get natural gas and here is . And again, um I love

112:27 , there's Iceland down. Everybody would Iceland I is 100% geothermal.

112:33 you know, I, I don't they have a million people. Norway's

112:38 got 4.5 5 million people. Norway a lot of hydroelectric power and uh

112:45 of that, uh they actually, they actually uh provide electricity to almost

112:50 of Sweden with the surplus. But , it has to do with

112:56 If you have a small population, can do it. If you have

112:59 gigantic population, you're in trouble. , where's the next biggest uh

113:05 Where is the biggest thing? It's even on there is the biggest country

113:13 the next biggest country are, and this is the third one.

113:20 , I'm not even sure if us the third Russian. Ok. And

113:30 um here's hydroelectric, then here they this thing. This is, they

113:40 have production for because they have a when it runs and they know how

113:45 is coming. They don't tell you . And uh the US uh used

113:56 be one of the biggest China, course, uh is the biggest.

113:59 , they, um they literally impounding and millions of acres of land and

114:07 , I think, well over a people to build the reservoir. And

114:11 and now they have this massive, , uh, present. We're now

114:18 produces a lot of, but it's a small amount compared to, to

114:23 that we need. Um, uh, Norway down here.

114:30 again they, uh, they have small population so even though they're way

114:34 on the list, they're actually paying almost all of their electricity or producing

114:40 all of their electricity and just from view to the limits And,

114:47 the way they, uh, they so much electricity, um, their

114:52 heat is you have cleaning force and run on a special, um,

114:57 underneath them. They put out heat resistance and it's, uh, it's

115:02 be the most inefficient way to provide heat here. A simple heat.

115:07 know that they have so much, cheap. Hm. And, and

115:13 only have 4.5 to 5 million people keep warm. Uh, it does

115:19 cold but, uh, the coldest in my life that I've ever lived

115:23 in Oklahoma and the hottest day was Oklahoma. And, uh,

115:28 uh, where I lived in Norway never got as cold as some of

115:31 winters in Okla because we were so away from the ocean, um,

115:38 , so to speak. And bottom is, is that all of these

115:43 are still, if you, if you take away the subsidies,

115:46 still really expensive. This isn't what gonna pay for that. Energy.

115:52 , when your, when your electric gas or your electric bill, but

115:56 , but it is what it costs put, uh, put this much

116:00 , not production, but to put much capacity online, uh, it

116:05 an awful lot of money. Um thing that's interesting is that,

116:15 natural gas is, is definitely still . This might be cheaper than this

116:20 now just because some of these prices over time. But in general,

116:24 is still pretty much the same And, um, here's one for

116:32 and here we're not talking about uh Watts or kilowatts. We're just

116:38 we're just uh tera watts or megawatts anything like that. We're just talking

116:45 uh a kilowatt and uh this is dollar price for these different things.

116:50 you can see again here that there's a broad range of these

116:54 Hydroelectric is one of the cheapest. to do hydroelectric, you have to

116:58 on something for the most part. have to take away people's phones.

117:02 There's a, um, there's two in South Carolina, um, the

117:08 and uh one of lake tree and there was uh like, uh just

117:15 World war two, they started, built these things so they get power

117:19 and use the fuel tanks, you know, on the battlefield and

117:24 , the, the ships for bunker and that sort of thing. But

117:29 , but uh this is probably one the most efficient ones. But

117:32 it has a huge environmental impact. , some of the lakes that we

117:37 to go fishing on are nice things . So, in some ways it

117:40 to the environment. Uh, but , it's a, it's a costly

117:43 because you need that acreage and people live on acreage, especially with the

117:48 of the world now, 8 instead of 2.5 billion. Excuse

117:58 Um I forget what it is, know, something cost of energy or

118:10 . Yeah, that's what it is . That's kind of looking at some

118:18 the, uh that's looking at some the uh outside costs. So

118:21 this strips away uh the subsidies or of subsidies. Ok. And so

118:33 we talk about alternate energy, I there's several slights of hand, when

118:37 the growth potential that we think of overemphasized? And part of that is

118:42 we, we explain it in capacity production. Uh Another part of it

118:48 there's a focus when they talk about it does for us, they talk

118:54 so many houses with electrical power. don't talk about the overall global need

118:59 energy. And uh and then it , it is heavily subsidized so

119:05 Um, you know, the US was, was hitting people $7000 to

119:14 it and not a subsidy or a break to buy any electric cars.

119:19 uh, the day after that was , Ford said they're gonna increase the

119:23 of their electric truck by 7, . So that's a huge part of

119:31 of this. It's not cheating. , it is. Anyway,

119:37 it is. It's a little bit . But, uh, um,

119:42 anyway, um, and half of the alternates are hydrocarbons and one of

119:47 last charts, the hydro, the part was down to something to

119:52 So they're trying to make some, headway on that. I think the

119:56 that they're trying to do uh farming a different way to stop overturning the

120:00 is gonna help if they, if keep thinking about how big this problem

120:05 and that we need to address you know, even down to the

120:09 of how much pressure goes to that , you know, these little details

120:13 make a lot of money. And another amazing thing about all of this

120:17 conservation. You know, you share ride with somebody just have the bill

120:23 hand just like that, you and uh so conservation is still one

120:29 the most important things and I don't anybody pushing that politically um in a

120:35 that they should to help us get where we're gonna. And uh and

120:39 course, the wealthier countries might be ones that can do more conservation just

120:46 , you know, we, we enough infrastructure and what not to do

120:50 . Uh You know, if you're a developing country, you might not

120:54 al alternate means. You know, , there may only be one person

120:58 one bus and everybody's on that bus . You know, there's nothing else

121:02 can do to uh to get their needs lower. So, uh so

121:07 , it does behoove all of us these wealthier countries to really consider uh

121:13 more efforts in terms of our own conservation methods. Uh I didn't do

121:18 of a job when I got a car, but, uh, but

121:22 did get a diesel car and, , um, I would like to

121:26 that. Uh, uh, I'm, I'm, it's in the

121:30 for a, um, emissions thing an Audi and I, and it

121:34 completely repaired, but even after the repairs that they had to do on

121:39 , uh, over the last couple months I've had about half a dozen

121:44 that I've been able to get in on an average of 44 MPG with

121:50 diesel car and my loaner car, is a brand new 2023 a high

121:56 two liter engine on the best day gotten, uh, 27 miles to

122:02 gallon, which is, you um, just a little bit more

122:06 half. So that's not working. wasting a lot of gas right

122:12 If, uh, people that have cars hopped into my car.

122:16 it would save a lot of fuel , uh, if we all drove

122:21 little bit more carefully, we would a lot of people too.

122:28 So, uh, I don't think need to read this, but this

122:31 a summary of what this, this lecture was all about.

122:35 uh, and I, and I it's an important, uh, I

122:38 it seems like, uh, non stuff. No, geology,

122:42 the sciences. But you know, you go out and look for

122:46 you got to have an idea of important it is. And I think

122:49 anything, I just told you in of uh the politics that make the

122:55 of oil and gas go up, what I just showed you strongly suggests

123:00 need for oil and gas is, hypercritical for the survival of the farm

123:06 our city. Yeah. And I think you can deny that. I

123:10 , uh when I, when I my choice to not worry about and

123:16 went into the oil industry, I every day I was providing fuel,

123:21 hospitals, schools, all sorts of and uh and industry and just,

123:27 an important thing. It's totally directly to or I say to directly related

123:34 GDP S in developing countries, the . So uh it's really an important

123:42 to remember. But uh being able provide this source of energy is still

123:46 be important. Uh, there may to be a threat but, uh

123:52 on the rate at which we're, replacing the hydrocarbons with alternates is,

123:57 desperately low and that's not to stop doing that. That's to

124:01 please do more. I'm gonna get of your way, do whatever you

124:05 to do and may, maybe you'll producing, you know, displacing 1%

124:10 2% or even 3% a year. , uh, that will still take

124:15 guys to the end of your career your young ages. Yeah.

124:42 this would be a good time to a break. I can find my

124:53 again. That's when I, I into trouble when I get, does

124:56 see my cursor on the other? . Um, the way I'm gonna

126:01 these recordings in general is usually the will be one recording but the,

126:08 , the, I mean, excuse , the Friday will be one

126:10 but the Saturdays will be a morning an afternoon. I try not to

126:14 them too big. Uh, makes a little bit easier to work.

126:21 . So now we're gonna look at lot of the terms and concepts that

126:24 , uh, that we deal with . And, uh, the first

126:28 is what is petroleum geoscience? uh, I used to have a

126:32 bunch of slides, uh, you know, if somebody teaches sequence

126:37 , they define it. Structural sometimes they define it. But if

126:41 a practical, I think a thing of your book, uh, is

126:46 best thing. Uh, 2004 I don't think it changed in the

126:51 edition which just came out about a and a half ago. Uh,

126:55 , um, uh, but that's kind of how I see it

126:59 a definition. It's, um, , physics, as they applied to

127:06 the origin distribution of properties of petroleum petroleum bearings. And uh it also

127:13 to producing it too, figuring out these days. This is, this

127:19 much covers um all of what we in frontier and exploration when we get

127:29 uh appraisal distribution of properties becomes really when it comes to development and

127:37 that part it's important to. But it helps to know a little bit

127:44 how things are produced and that kind thing uh to understand how you can

127:48 those questions as a geoscientist. And again, here's the value chain

127:55 uh what the value chain is. uh it looks at, you

128:02 how do we look at these things how are we focusing on the value

128:07 a property? Um these different stages of actually a petroleum system and a

128:17 because at some point in time, part of the frontier project and then

128:22 becomes an exploration project. It could be part of an exploitation uh further

128:30 early development of uh of, of first initial well and that initial fault

128:37 whatever it is, uh a few the next couple of steps might also

128:42 considered exploration. Uh But then when , you venture outside of that

128:48 but to something that's very similar in of its the Asian, the

128:53 the sort of rock types of structures the sea and the prospects and that

128:58 of thing. Um is what exploitation all about. Then appraisal is of

129:02 focusing in on those things and trying figure out um exactly how big you

129:09 it is a limited number of the number of data uh put into

129:15 And then when you get to the , you're looking this, this is

129:19 a lot of this is based on data, some dynamic data, but

129:24 gets, this really uh leans heavily dynamic data when you get into development

129:29 production. And if I asked you , um I don't know if I

129:41 it out because it was saying things it slightly different. If I,

129:47 I ever ask you what the what are the four steps of the

129:50 chain? This is how I would it. There's six steps in

129:54 but these two are very, these , these have a really strong handshake

129:59 these two down here have a very but uh this is definitely doing something

130:06 . This is definitely uh I think really key stick that has a lot

130:12 things that you need to focus on do that. Right. And,

130:16 , that's what your mapping exercise It's an attempt to appraise a field

130:20 a few wells in it. Um, this is the way it

130:37 to be. Um, and I'm , I'm a geologist so I guess

130:44 got to apologize for that. uh, the, uh, the

130:50 for us to get a rock is we can touch in a or a

130:56 that a tool is touching directly. And I call that hard geological

131:02 Um I know we had a um about three years ago, we had

131:06 grad student that was signing uh rock to um to and everybody and good

131:17 that they called the geological data soft and the seismic market. The seismic

131:25 is, is just another form of remote sensing. And uh or I

131:30 say just an incredible uh type of sensing and the real hard geological data

131:36 a geologist is being able to um and touch that rock with our hand

131:44 eyes and uh or have a tool actually touches, not one that just

131:50 energy waste to it. And uh all of the, the myriad

131:55 of issues with uh acquisition of data all of the issues with processing that

132:00 problem. Although uh the people that on it were really clever. They're

132:05 amazing things. I still am amazed it actually works. Uh You

132:09 you have all these sound waves, all these energy waves bouncing off of

132:15 multiple uh horizons and uh and they're to keep track of all the different

132:22 and when the, how far the are uh uh have, have

132:26 it helps, you know, that have more than GEO one GEO phone

132:31 uh and that sort of thing. uh when we have a 3d G

132:34 grid, that's uh that's a whole different ballgame. And, and some

132:38 the onshore things can be a lot um um detailed in terms of,

132:46 , of data because, you they can, if they want,

132:50 can automatically use uh geophones, they uh handle she waves and all sorts

132:56 converted waves and uh uh offshore stuff work with converted waves, but

133:02 but they don't um necessarily have a to uh to do shear waves unless

133:07 have ocean bottom type sensors. uh what this slide talks about though

133:14 uh normally uh the geological effort was big up here because this was,

133:20 used to call it the sexy end our business because it was, had

133:24 lot of money. Ok. There a lot of money in it,

133:27 I don't know if it's even um correct to use that term anymore.

133:33 uh but nevertheless, where there's it, you know, it's,

133:36 kind of uh invigorates people, And so uh uh not so much

133:43 the frontier, but when we got exploration exploitation, that's where all this

133:47 is and part of the money was acquisition of, I think one of

133:53 reason why uh geophysics did so well the oil industry is because uh they

134:00 to invest a lot of money to it, They had to invest a

134:04 of money to process it and interpret . And uh because of that,

134:08 became a huge part of the geoscience . And if it's a bigger

134:13 that's gonna, you know, create um activity and the interest. But

134:19 said all that as geologists, uh lot of us would work down at

134:23 end. And at this end, have, we often have no weathers

134:30 this point. They only have Well, at this point, we

134:35 have a few wells. When we down here, we might have a

134:39 to hundreds of wells. Uh And have the longest of, but as

134:44 move in this direction, we often the past have not gotten a lot

134:49 poor data and other stuff that cost lot of money. I actually sent

134:54 wells, I sat in the cast to make sure that it didn't

134:58 I could figure out what the age the rocks were because we were,

135:02 were like, uh part of our was to drill with a certain horizon

135:07 I could identify that with, with without doing it before. Um And

135:14 , they drove before I got out , ended up having four in

135:20 uh, by the time that they it, it was $8 million task

135:24 get uh a good core out of , out of that section to prove

135:27 they reached the uh their contract uh that they had to penetrate according to

135:34 license keeps popping in and out And uh but what's happening right now

135:44 , with unconventional and uh also uh even seismic is starting to get really

135:52 down here uh with four D uh four dimensional stuff. In other

135:57 , they have the 3d plus plus uh on there. So you can

136:02 actually thing, dynamic, things changing the reservoir. Uh But geologists are

136:08 to do more and more of the down here. But in the

136:12 it was really heavy up on this for geologically effort and uh lighter on

136:17 end. And I always found it sort of strange that where all the

136:22 is. We weren't, we weren't geologists. OK. Um The diff

136:30 types of uh things that we of course, of course, sidewalk

136:34 cuttings, fire line logs, you , seismic. And uh there's even

136:40 things that we can do with seismic help us see um depositional faces now

136:47 a, on a um on the and that sort of thing. So

136:51 really uh becoming a, a really powerful tool even though it is,

136:56 is a form of remote sensing. the imaging is, is, is

137:00 getting absolutely fantastic and uh probably will a whole lot better while you

137:07 And um and then of course, in this part, um when you

137:18 down to here, all of these that we, we get very little

137:22 up in the top and uh we to pick up as we go into

137:26 and um in production. And what you think happens within conventions? What

137:35 of tools do you think we look there? It gets a little tougher

137:42 do some of these things because some these things require, require, uh

137:46 helps to have vertical. So, a lot of this stuff goes on

137:52 unconventional before we, uh often before in an area that we're gonna do

138:03 rock. Uh Yeah, that from get that from the cuttings. We

138:10 a whole lot of things from the , from the cuttings. We can

138:13 uh uh we can do Rocky Bell some of the cars, we

138:19 you know, we can, we if we can pull some of the

138:23 stuff out, we can, we do stuff with it if we,

138:26 we get oil we can do you know, we can,

138:28 do a lot of things with But, uh, but uh

138:33 for his help, we can do with cuttings. It's a little bit

138:36 difficult, uh, with, with those sorts of things. But,

138:40 , we do, we have a done uh in terms of the analysis

138:44 these different things, the best tool a geologist that is work as you

138:48 see, sedimentary structures. Sidewalk courses good too because you can't see and

138:54 know exactly where it be, they a little bit of a,

139:01 uh, mud lining to parts of . But, uh, that's coming

139:04 a place to cuttings. You have calculate, uh, the return rate

139:09 the, uh, the cuttings to out exactly where it is. And

139:12 worked with in the industry, I've with cuttings a lot and quite often

139:15 really, really good sometimes the uh, sometimes you almost have to

139:21 the cores with the cuttings because you like a 30 ft four and,

139:27 , some of these ones where they the weight on it. So,

139:31 stuff and they actually started 34 went 10 ft and then figure out what

139:40 of the 10 ft did you 20 ft or with the 30

139:44 And, um, I, I've stuff actually in the field with Splints

139:49 bores and stuff like that. what's not on this list and something

139:53 I've used when I did my dissertation uh os with big places for doing

139:59 course and stuff. And I can bring that for foundations. But you

140:05 this thing in, in the ground the, in the court, depending

140:09 the nature of the rock through you pull the section up and sale

140:14 . You just have to take the off of it, but the just

140:17 down it. So go in 5 5 ft, you are put in

140:27 and I'll say you got a really uh in uh look at uh what's

140:32 on. So there's a lot of like that that we can do.

140:36 , we'll talk about some of this in more detail that you can get

140:47 , oh, I know and you get an awful lot out of

140:49 Yeah. And, and, and , and uh calculating the lag time

140:53 , is amazing because I, I've at, you know, samples that

140:57 almost closer interval than you should. , uh you know, you,

141:02 have to always realize that, you , to take a sample, this

141:06 what was at that point uh in over that interval. It was never

141:11 a point getting the uh the absolute of the sidewalk floor and the floor

141:16 , is a really good thing. But, but that's really expensive.

141:21 are very expensive in, uh in soft rocks, like in the

141:26 of Mexico when I worked on a courses weren't too bad because, because

141:31 didn't have to have the little, , thing that would, uh,

141:35 into the, that just, had a charge on it. So

141:39 like something like a, an uh, 35 millimeter film jar that

141:43 pop in there and you'd pull it . Sometimes the car is in

141:47 Sometimes it's not. but you might a, a string of 35 or

141:51 . And uh, and you 60 70 80% of them would come

141:56 with something in them and then you use that. Ok. So,

142:04 I've already said this. So I don't need to say it again.

142:08 , you know, the dollar marks , is why the focus was there

142:12 uh exploration was where we put a of money. And uh but

142:17 uh we're doing more of the appraisal production and development areas and uh what

142:24 like hi do. And there's a of companies similar to this in the

142:28 Sea and some of these other there's, there's a huge amount of

142:33 in, in the Gulf of Mexico the shell because a lot of the

142:36 oil companies have kind of moved away the shell and uh, and uh

142:41 around South Marshall on 1 28. know there's huge pockets of oil that

142:46 one's drilled yet. But uh you know, it's too much work

142:54 who could use an extra million dollars . You know, if you tell

142:59 a billion, I'll, I'll get it. But anyway, um and

143:04 they'll take all the money. um uh so the big expenses in

143:09 past has been this uh recently because gone to a lot of uh unconventional

143:17 um offshore seismic activity is really, uh expiration will drop up. A

143:24 of the seismic companies are having a difficult time getting, getting a lot

143:29 going and what not. But I it's gonna pick up uh here in

143:32 near future uh for a number of . And of course, the

143:38 certainly is one of them where they're be doing a lot of seism in

143:42 future and they've already done quite a . Yeah. Yeah. The thing

143:47 it, the minute you, a lot of times too they'll do

143:50 spec data and they'll, they'll go there with C DS or maybe,

143:55 some, uh less than uh robust data to sort of find out if

144:02 worth spending the money. Once they out it's worth spending the money,

144:05 they start doing. I, one the projects I worked in, in

144:09 the North Sea and the chalk uh We were able to show them

144:13 they were missing uh actually 400 million of oil. And, uh that

144:19 them the incentive to, uh, ocean bottom, uh, seismic seismometers

144:26 , uh, OVS or, uh, whatever they call them

144:30 in the, um, so they do, uh, shear waves and

144:33 top of the, um, of waves because, uh, uh,

144:39 , what do you find, what find in a lot of places where

144:42 a lot of oil is you have clouds. If you have gas clouds

144:46 up in the talks, there are exception or you have uh gas seeping

144:51 of the reservoirs creates a, it , really difficult to and um almost

145:00 I ever did a lot of technical it was a for the work as

145:05 . So, uh you go to talk, you're gonna see only the

145:10 stuff, right? Uh 400 gallons it has 4 million galls of

145:23 Ok. Ok. You found 400 million barrels of oil in a,

145:28 a field. How do you excuse me? How did you guys

145:34 it? Uh We got samples and figured out what the superiority was,

145:40 realized that, you know, there a lot of uh a lot of

145:50 and there wasn't any new software just at samples and doing better correlations and

145:55 out single size and you didn't see the Yes. Uh So they

146:02 they could almost see nothing. And you, when you get, uh

146:06 you do the Jurassic in the North , which is well below the chalks

146:11 start looking at the Jurassic, a of that energy that you would wanna

146:15 to see sands. You can't, doesn't work. Now, this,

146:23 was looking at samples and figuring out stray with geology that it, they're

146:31 doing it, they're still doing You can't, you can't get energy

146:36 , through gas are not about, , I, I'll show you what

146:44 clouds look at and you can Yeah, it's, it's not something

146:47 can process away, uh, if , if, but what they did

146:53 was they put O BS on the , it's just really expensive. But

146:57 they put O BS on the they could use shear waves and they

147:00 see through the gas clouds. So they can see through the gas clouds

147:04 they found another 100 million barrels when did that and they use software to

147:11 that. Ok. Um, uh, what a lot of geologists

147:24 , uh, when we get in conven conventional is they spend a lot

147:27 time geo theory. And, there's also, uh, a thing

147:32 bios Steering and I'll explain that to in a future lecture. But,

147:36 , but right now they, they do steering a lot and

147:41 ge steering works pretty well and, it's gotten to be a pretty good

147:44 but it's still difficult because as you imagine, uh, there's a couple

147:49 uh inherent problems. So normally if look at a products go like

148:02 the tools come down and the tools actually go out this week and

148:10 what, what they're measuring is this away from the wealth of the,

148:14 not in front of the wealth or way, way. And when you

148:19 when you go down in a your tools are still doing this.

148:27 uh and so coming between these unless you have these layers vertical,

148:35 it's, it's really hard to, don't have needs on. You could

148:40 five, you look for a series spikes like this, but you're gonna

148:47 drilling in here. How do you if you're in here? This is

148:52 you want to be uh because the goes like this and we're gonna come

148:58 the sand and when we turn up like that or whatever, um It's

149:02 difficult actually seeing photography with the tools have with now, you know that

149:12 sensors sets out in this direction and just the way it is, you

149:17 , they, but uh they send these fields, you can go farther

149:24 farther out in that house. So when you come along and you

149:28 you're starting, you can characterize this uh type of uh and uh so

149:46 focus so that you can get figure what the is more rather than

149:56 But even so when you go across , you know, taking into everything

150:00 in that place. So, you , we still using that,

150:04 you're looking at each one when when you're crossing layers, you become

150:10 complicated and uh I think can be , and um, and, and

150:18 , it doesn't always work. one of the things, um we

150:23 until we get the bio before I about. OK. Uh Then there's

150:33 another thing that, that they work is focus on higher volumes, higher

150:37 rates. One of the things that a unconventional geologist says is that

150:42 know they have a, that the was the and the produced a lot

150:48 so a lot of the things that do in front of their aspiration.

150:51 trying to figure out if we have source, we're trying to figure out

150:54 we have a, have a reservoir . Uh Here, you already know

150:58 a pro that source. It, a proven respiratory of the technology that

151:04 use it and actually extract the oil from something that's very, very

151:09 And of course, uh laterals prove hydrofracking, of course, uh uh

151:15 you to put photo channels into the away from the board. And uh

151:23 it also increases the surface area We work. The big advantage with

151:27 is I have 300 I see here here, here I've had 300 times

151:35 comforts of that of that uh production or whatever, the, the excuse

151:40 , the uh the production line. um and that's all you have.

151:47 when you um when you have something five miles long, that surface area

151:53 becomes five miles to set the circumstances then the further enhance it, you

152:01 you uh fracture and uh put it the, pop it up so that

152:07 may have more blood channels so that surface area might become that mild.

152:12 this surface area too. So the area been exposed with a pressure differential

152:20 for them. And that's why I it doesn't draw for very long and

152:25 far away. OK. Um So , in frontier, regular frontier,

152:39 know, it's, it's a very thing. Uh Is it a is

152:42 a big one of the things is you want to know if the uh

152:50 reservoir is gonna be large. Uh overall basin type has something to do

152:55 this where your depot centers has something do with this. Uh what types

153:00 structures you have and uh and size always in work. And uh so

153:07 we're looking at some of these doesn't have any structure or not.

153:11 Normally when we would get uh still it, we get, you

153:14 some of your two D size you do some uh your view of

153:19 area. One of the things that look for any types of things that

153:24 like fracturing and stuff like that, that can, can create seals and

153:29 that can create volume. Uh The one is, doesn't have any organic

153:34 deposits. You're not gonna have a or if you don't have a

153:39 right? So that's really important. other one is how the organics been

153:46 . So when you're doing frontier and , you wanna make sure all these

153:50 have a um of a uh petroleum actually exist in that basin you're

154:00 So, uh your books from the Sea, this is from the book

154:04 uh it's not in color, but graphic is a little bit better from

154:07 second edition than it is from the . And uh and here you can

154:12 um uh all of those things come play here in terms of where we

154:20 have potential for charged reservoirs that we produce oil and gas. So just

154:26 a quick look at this. Does have any idea? You just had

154:30 geology? Does anybody have any idea type of basin this is? Excuse

154:41 , how many think it's a Riff ? Does it say it's a rip

154:51 on it? Raise your hand if think it's a Riff Basin?

154:59 Stephanie didn't take the class. You . Oh, you were instructions.

155:03 . Yeah, she, she have her hand. Go ahead. You're

155:07 . It's a Riff basin. So what you're looking at this particular

155:14 of basin because of the, because the way it's formed and its evolution

155:21 a lot of different things in Uh that are parts of the petroleum

155:27 and there is a rift. I me, that's a reservoir, the

155:31 , the reservoir, here's a Uh But just looking at this

155:39 um what do you, what kind reserve do you think that is this

155:51 right here? You haven't had sequences Tier? Hm? OK. Uh

156:12 , what type of uh sediments do think are in this, this particular

156:16 here? What what uh I'll give again. What status it to

156:23 Yeah. Um That's good. every everything, everything that they learned

156:33 build price class except for Stephanie, was it? Everything you learn to

156:38 a price place. Let me take to Yeah, that, that's what

157:00 getting at. Where is it Yeah. With the T A already

157:05 it away. If you listen, didn't hear. OK. Uh

157:11 this is a rip. What's really in rip basins is when they,

157:14 you get that ripping and it's active sometimes it's this end actually pops up

157:22 . So you get a mountain on side and a depression on the other

157:26 , you had a sequence stratigraphy. would know you're creating something called accommodation

157:31 here for sediments on this side and popping this up in the air.

157:35 happens to rock and pop up in air in the end? The

157:45 And uh yes, coarse grain stuff flying down on and the bray sands

157:50 the North Sea look just like Uh If you had a nice seismic

157:54 here, you could see these big and outs coming right off. There's

157:58 uplift, there's an uplift. Uh where the South Viking Robin and the

158:05 go together and right there at that in the central Gravis down here,

158:09 a triple junction and you get tons tons of sediment coming off the high

158:14 into that. If you go to East African Riffs, uh you see

158:18 same kind of things, one side the, of the uh rip lakes

158:22 pop up and you have sediments pouring that river face. And uh when

158:27 was a rift, this was all up here is all a lot

158:32 It wasn't, it wasn't sagging like because the rip was caused by the

158:37 up the underneath it. But over millions of years, it's taken for

158:42 to develop, uh it's cooled and the um the pre wrap ripped and

158:48 the sin ripped uh features uh sagged it and the poster stuff covered it

158:56 like it is. Now, in words, started to fill in,

158:59 can see this one is pretty much same fitness right after the thermal subit

159:04 in. So here you're seeing gets here, there's more thermal subsidence in

159:11 middle. A little bit more a little bit more. It's standing

159:14 the edges here now. But when this first these first layers were

159:18 down um in the lower Cretaceous and Cretaceous, you would have seen um

159:26 something that looked more like flatline beds , but as, as you

159:31 it was up like this and then went like this again, this is

159:37 you do in front of your You look at the basin, the

159:39 style and that basic style will give a hint as to what kind of

159:44 rocks you could have. And it all one. Here's a reservoir rock

159:49 a pre reservoir rock, sin here's a reservoir route. And

159:57 so the whole development of that particular of basin creates different areas where there's

160:05 space and there's erosion somewhere in What do these things look like?

160:21 , this is the dunes are a feature. So it's not a doom

160:25 , but, but you kind of an idea, you get close to

160:32 . So nobody talked about, what you call these things have that?

160:39 , I'm gonna get you a, not cross bet. Yeah,

160:51 it's a cross betting. Cross betting be. Oh, there's some right

161:03 . Such a small scale. You see. I'm just tired. Is

161:07 called Clio Forms? And these, and that, and I don't know

161:12 you noticed, but here's one that out here, here's another one that

161:17 grades out in this direction. Here's one that pros out in this

161:21 Here's another one that prograde out in direction. Now, if I tell

161:25 that sediments are progra out into the , where would the sandstone go in

161:32 these kind of again? You, you don't know what a final form

161:37 , you know, it's completed, the final forms are the that you

161:42 , it's like they, the kind forms. But in between, this

161:50 is the kind of form that the in between is called the what?

162:00 don't know if this is what, uh but you know, when

162:05 when you take his class, you want to ask him because he knows

162:08 the climate is or better yet. asked them to point out the kind

162:13 them was talking about. So you , you know, it's, it's

162:21 , I think it's from the latter be the, but uh either way

162:25 , would uh basically, OK. it's a, so it's an in

162:30 thing and these are the forms showing that there's curved sedimentary rocks in here

162:39 the things inside there are kind of , yeah, it's exciting data and

162:54 see these kind of them, everybody excited. OK. Sometimes the clients

163:00 so small you can't even see them and that's where the high resolution ended

163:07 . A million dollars you can Ok. So what do you think

163:14 YESES are, those are source box kind of right on top of the

163:24 the Sin Rift. Uh That's the Ridge play in the north. And

163:33 there's several layers of the Cambridge And uh yes, there's a,

163:42 actually two tops to the Kim ridge a lot of people don't know

163:45 And so a lot of uh a in the top of the Jurassic and

163:50 across the Cretaceous Jurassic boundary is awfully uh highly confounded by the fact that

163:58 a huge, there's a huge um this boundary Strat, breaking this all

164:04 way across the in our city and sexual problems at the. Ok.

164:13 these are source rocks. And uh do you think this, the sea

164:20 for? Hm. Right. So, uh and uh they

164:32 they use the C for cat rock , because if they use the,

164:35 , you wouldn't know the difference between rock and the seal. And so

164:40 are three of the most important the other important elements. Uh You

164:45 , the thing is that no, these source rocks have matured and also

164:55 uh migration, that migration to charge particular thing here, you have a

165:03 rock that's right next to a reservoir here. You have a source rock

165:06 right underneath oil goes uphill. Uh you have a source rock that could

165:11 charging things up here and uh this a world class. So source rock

165:15 Cambridge play, it's often 8% toc the time or better. Uh It's

165:21 , it's a really amazing marine source . It's not as good as a

165:25 marine source rock in terms of to , but it's, uh it's definitely

165:29 for a marine source rock. So these are some of the things

165:37 we look at and we need uh find in frontier, in conventional

165:43 Um And one of the, the that's important to remember is, you

165:50 , when, when we look at conventions, what we're doing is coming

165:55 looking for one of these source walks we know has that has.

166:00 Um, it sells a lot of , but at the same time,

166:05 a lot of oil stuff and there's need to go create a huge surface

166:11 so we can. And so the of finding oil and gas in an

166:16 confessional well is very low, but , the price is small, each

166:20 is much smaller. So, you , you might spend, um,

166:26 $6 million or even more of the . Uh but you might not get

166:30 more than that pack of oil. , uh it's sometimes it's, the

166:34 is very slim. It's not like one well and being able to

166:41 um say a good million dollars or million barrels of oil out of

166:47 Well, uh you're not gonna, not gonna run into that. Uh

166:51 of the plays that we show, had one exploration well, and uh

166:55 help pay for the exploration effort, was in a country that made it

167:00 to uh to make a profit. they, they were allowed to run

167:03 test and dispose of the oil that out of the test. Of

167:08 they sold it. Uh but they produced over a million barrels out

167:12 the, out of the initial exploration , uh and ran a test that

167:17 kept going for a while just to sure they understood the flow rate.

167:25 . So the next kinds of things you need to do are uh risk

167:31 . Once you know, there's something , you have to worry about where

167:34 infrastructure is or not, you have worry about whether you have access to

167:39 . You have to do, I a license, you have to get

167:40 license. Um Is it shallow But if you need one or is

167:46 shallow enough to, you know, have to have access to technological.

167:53 else do we have to worry How can we turn that into an

167:58 resource? What are the things that have to do? It's really an

168:04 thing when you do make it, it or break it or chilly

168:20 Uh, well, oil price, , affects everybody. So,

168:24 that's another thing, uh, uh, the more difficult it is

168:29 get out of the ground, the important it is. For example,

168:33 , when I was, uh, girl in South Marc 1 28.

168:37 , I bet our, uh, costs per barrel or less than probably

168:43 than $2. Uh, if you to a conventional, well,

168:50 one of the students that did a for did, did the auditing for

168:57 . Uh, we went through and realize, and based on the cost

169:01 cost of drilling the well, cracking well and disposing of what of the

169:09 , uh, the waste water. , the most part, everybody needed

169:15 know. Yes, to get $70 barrel for oil sales and they

169:25 yeah. Uh, like, we're right there right now today.

169:28 some of them as well as could having problems. But there are

169:33 for example, like Chevron, it had a lot of acreage,

169:40 , legacy increase in the Permian basin they didn't give up the rights,

169:45 didn't do anything with it but sitting and all of a sudden,

169:50 So they paid, they basically earn money to pay for their rights.

169:57 , previously, now they, now getting more, much more oil out

170:01 the ground so that right there could , cost $10.15 to $20 barrel.

170:11 , so that becomes very fun. I'm really thinking another big was

170:19 Yeah, what else is really important people overseas? And sometimes it can

170:25 important and even in the US, is our political stability and, uh

170:37 countries have civil wars going on. , some countries, once you start

170:44 , they start, um, raising taxes on your lifting charges. They

170:49 out that you're making some money, they live in the middle and then

170:53 figure out a way to get more the best cost. They raise the

170:58 again, raise. That's instability. are some of the things that are

171:05 . Another thing even in the US Democratic Party from Obama is not going

171:12 discuss for exploration. VP just blew for everybody. You literally blew it

171:20 everybody. And uh and so that all shut in and all of the

171:26 building was shut in for a long of time. And uh and

171:31 that's political too, but it seems know based on uh poor behavior and

171:39 set of one set of people. , it never came out with the

171:45 CEO at the time of the Macondo . Hey, uh conversation with the

171:57 and his uh his chief to get that thing. And then there's a

172:02 bunch of words I can't say get that, do that because um they

172:08 paying close to a million dollars a just to have a city and he

172:13 us to get and, um, expense would have been nothing and it

172:20 , it entered the entire industry. , uh, unfortunately it's something I

172:25 . BP. Never, I don't , ever paid enough for because,

172:29 it didn't just hurt, um, . They hurt the whole oil industry

172:34 they did that. And I, think the oil industry was just a

172:38 bit too sympathetic in some cases. I do know a lot of people

172:42 work in the industry like me, were really horrified when they found out

172:47 many steps they, they shortcutted to that rig moved. It was almost

172:52 uh a a management dictate made them everything they were taught, especially about

173:00 . OK? We'll do a couple slides and get out of here.

173:07 This is a whole list of the concerns and exploration exploitation and I won't

173:13 them again like I just did. uh all of these things become more

173:18 at, at finer and finer And if you think about it,

173:23 eventual exploration starts from outside the you know, we're trying to figure

173:28 what's in that base and put me and we try to get the big

173:33 of it. You know, what , what are its foundings begin inside

173:37 boundaries? How the rocks popping dropping down, how sediment building out

173:42 combination space all that kind of So we're trying to figure out how

173:46 base is developed and while it was , how it could have possibly developed

173:50 rescue and how that reserve could have an appropriate seal and how that could

173:55 been in a precision to where um could have migrated to it and made

174:01 to the service. So all these become more and more important. And

174:05 , when we're doing an unconventional, skip that whole process because we know

174:09 what it is. But we really to do an unconventional figure out what

174:15 figure out if there's something else. , you know, we always focus

174:18 the main product and a lot of places, uh, they're, they're

174:23 at secondary source products and stuff like and actually making money producing them as

174:28 . And if you look at the for, there's um, some tight

174:33 reservoirs, the chalk above it, , that with the right approach,

174:38 , you don't need to bracket because has a lot of natural fraction,

174:42 there are some reservoirs produce relatively shallow and relatively low cost without paying for

174:49 . You still get the, flu and gas out of the ground

174:52 an extended lateral. Ok. uh, we take a little

175:07 let's see, a little bit Look at this. I, I

175:10 it's time to take a break. almost six o'clock. You guys looked

175:15 , you finally woke up. Which good. You doing? Ok.

175:22 . And, uh, um, glad everybody was here. I'll see

175:26 bright and early tomorrow at 8 30 gonna start at 8 30. When

175:31 you do the structural course? we, we're officially scheduled at eight

175:37 I, but it's really hard for lot of people. Uh, I

175:41 the only good thing about coming in Saturday is the traffic's not bad and

175:47 no matter where we live we can here but watch out for wherever the

175:50 closings are on the weekend. so you don't get too late and

175:54 speed. I had a student one that, uh, got a ticket

175:59 the way at class and he he wanted to blame it on me

176:03 I'm like, and, uh, , just don't get in trouble.

176:12 . And then, then you don't to be upset with me for asking

176:14 to come here on set. All . Stop the

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