00:00 | Thank you. 30%. Yeah, is you present. There we |
|
00:18 | Ok, Lord. Have mercy. sense. Ok? I knew you |
|
00:26 | needed a break. So I this was all staged. I never |
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00:32 | mistakes. Ok? Even when it like I do, all I can |
|
00:42 | of is while I was trying to my cursor, I hit a button |
|
00:44 | shouldn't have hit. Has my cursor ? Uh Let me uh let me |
|
00:51 | Jay to make sure he doesn't. I'll call him this. We found |
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01:08 | cure and maybe it won't happen for 45 minutes. Ok. Bye. |
|
01:20 | . I did find a new magic by the way. So that |
|
01:24 | So anyway, we're gonna talk about as a resource and one of the |
|
01:28 | that I think is really important. you're gonna go looking for oil, |
|
01:32 | important to realize that we still need . And um one of the most |
|
01:40 | things about society today is that uh know, we have an infrastructure that's |
|
01:47 | on liquid energy sources and we're trying move it to batteries and uh it's |
|
01:54 | huge task. The task. the task is the, the task |
|
01:59 | huge. There's no reason for not on it because it's huge. But |
|
02:05 | is a reason that people be aware we're not working on it fast |
|
02:10 | We're not doing everything we need to to switch to electric cars yet. |
|
02:15 | , we've done a lot of Some people think that we have done |
|
02:19 | in the past. There will be set of slides that I'm gonna show |
|
02:23 | in here that shows that the United has been the leader in carbon free |
|
02:30 | realm longer than anybody else. Uh everything. Uh We're either number one |
|
02:37 | number two or we're at number But uh 10 years ago, 15 |
|
02:42 | ago, we were number one and and it'll stun you. Uh when |
|
02:46 | see what things we are. Number in, in other words, who |
|
02:50 | you think was the number one country for geothermal energy? Everybody thinks Ice |
|
03:00 | , Iceland is 100% electric electricity does you have to the fair amount of |
|
03:07 | energy and, and their, their to, you know, that that's |
|
03:16 | our production totally in a different league . Uh I don't know what it |
|
03:23 | when they get on the news and explain things to you. They don't |
|
03:26 | explain them to, to you the way and it's not that they're lying |
|
03:30 | the facts are wrong. It's the . It's the way they're looking at |
|
03:35 | and I, and we'll, we'll to a couple of things, but |
|
03:38 | kind of let me give you a , we will, um, we |
|
03:42 | consider, you know, you heard an inconvenient truth and the fact that |
|
03:46 | have climate change is an inconvenient It's the truth, it's there. |
|
03:52 | , but see, I think even convenient than that is that in our |
|
03:58 | to solve the problem, we have idea. I don't think the |
|
04:04 | you know, too many people even it and some people go, this |
|
04:09 | a massive problem. We shouldn't do , try to fix it. |
|
04:13 | it is a massive problem. So need to fix it better as soon |
|
04:16 | possible. Any time you, you a, it's like a, |
|
04:23 | everybody in the United States had hot heaters. You know, we all |
|
04:28 | to go to contact heaters, you know, ones where, you |
|
04:33 | , flames right there, bits right . You don't have a tank, |
|
04:36 | cold and then it's hot, You had to change everybody's hot water |
|
04:42 | . That would be a massive undertake a global scale. And that's the |
|
04:48 | . This is a huge, huge of a problem. And how many |
|
04:53 | , you know, for example, many, about how many barrels, |
|
04:56 | of barrels of oil does the world every single day? I'll give you |
|
05:10 | rough number. 100 million barrels every . That's a lot of oil |
|
05:18 | uh, somebody drops off 2 3 million here. It, it's |
|
05:23 | like, you know, you just turn your sprinklers on. I |
|
05:26 | it, it's catastrophic, it causes , there's a ripple effect all over |
|
05:30 | world. And, uh, and what part of the problem is. |
|
05:35 | , uh, and we'll get to of these other problems based on the |
|
05:39 | and, uh, not based on perspective. Uh, a really unfortunate |
|
05:45 | is that the people that are uh alternate sources are not pushing them |
|
05:54 | right way. They need to do and they need to do it |
|
05:57 | Not just push it, they need push it the right way because we're |
|
06:02 | doing, we're saying things that make sound like it's not too bad. |
|
06:07 | explained some of this in painful detail one of my friends in a wine |
|
06:11 | group of all things and I finally him to understand what the problem was |
|
06:16 | he was, he started to He says, don, I need |
|
06:20 | , I need hope. And I , there's not hope if we don't |
|
06:24 | , we don't address the issues and to the solution as long as we |
|
06:28 | we're ok by, you know, up 10 more windmills or 1000 more |
|
06:36 | . We're not, we're not touching problem at all. We're just, |
|
06:39 | just sort of playing along with the and not really doing what the herd |
|
06:46 | and that's what's really scares the hell of me because I know global warming |
|
06:51 | weird. Is real. In I was explaining to people and then |
|
06:56 | in 2004 and five, I was these hurricanes are gonna get bigger because |
|
07:00 | gonna be, there's gonna be more in the ocean. It's something really |
|
07:05 | . Uh, it, you it doesn't take a rocket scientist to |
|
07:08 | you put more energy into the You're gonna have more dra dramatic and |
|
07:13 | uh hurri uh uh clim uh weather and uh and they are weather |
|
07:19 | they're not, those are not necessarily , but individually, the climate is |
|
07:25 | a lot of places and that's where becomes climate, climate is a, |
|
07:28 | a broad area thing and it's also over a dramatic amount of time. |
|
07:34 | a paleo climatologist of sorts and uh climate change is a millions of year |
|
07:43 | . We're seeing something going on now almost instantaneous in geological time then. |
|
07:49 | not a little problem. Ok. , and everybody has to be on |
|
07:56 | . And uh so uh we're recording uh that's interesting was that in the |
|
08:03 | before earlier that wasn't up there? it? Ok. So that's actually |
|
08:11 | the way it's supposed to act. . Uh So one of the things |
|
08:19 | I really went, you understand is importance of hydrocarbons in society. And |
|
08:27 | so we're gonna look at some what a resource is versus a |
|
08:32 | Uh What peak oil is peak Um not very long ago in the |
|
08:41 | nineties all the way through May of , uh people were worried about peak |
|
08:46 | and, and uh I'll have to to you when the peak oil |
|
08:49 | but it's a delicate balance between demand production. You know, when you're |
|
08:54 | oil and gas, what's happening to reserves, right? So the |
|
09:03 | the patient gets ahead of discovery, get to a point where you cannot |
|
09:12 | to produce the amount of energy you . And so peak oil is when |
|
09:16 | reach that point, when your depletion is higher than your new production, |
|
09:24 | ? And we'll go into these inconvenient as I started. And uh this |
|
09:29 | the part that really upsets me. fast are the hydrocarbons being placed in |
|
09:34 | overall energy mix. So we're gonna on the United States because we are |
|
09:41 | one of the richest countries in the . We still, if anybody would |
|
09:45 | the capacity, the financial capacity to a change in the US. And |
|
09:50 | on a terrible family and we even it more than anybody else. We're |
|
09:56 | , it's just um and uh and we'll, we'll look at where the |
|
10:00 | stands now and the rest of the in terms of some of these |
|
10:04 | And uh and it will give you idea. Uh, I hope everybody |
|
10:10 | depressed. If you think about it much you will be. But, |
|
10:15 | , but it's, it's important for to understand. There's a reason why |
|
10:19 | , we're going to work every day looking for oil and gas is because |
|
10:22 | don't have the energy to replace it . And, uh, uh, |
|
10:27 | are, uh, well, I'll into the details because there's a lot |
|
10:32 | , there's a lot of problems with we look at it, how we |
|
10:37 | at the information and it keeps us understanding what the real situation is. |
|
10:44 | . And this is just uh looking the, at that in the |
|
10:49 | we're gonna be looking at the uh of hydrocarbons in, um, |
|
10:55 | I got this out of something from State in 2022 but I don't know |
|
11:01 | what the date of these numbers but these numbers change quite a |
|
11:05 | Uh But what it's trying to show is set out of a barrel of |
|
11:09 | and the world's using about 100 million day. Um This uh this much |
|
11:17 | to half of it goes to gasoline that's what we're trying to replace with |
|
11:22 | . We're trying to replace uh all that gasoline energy with batteries. And |
|
11:28 | down here in terms of that, just little tiny amounts. Uh I |
|
11:33 | this may be down to 45%. , uh, if you got a |
|
11:37 | modern one. when, whenever I a graphic, it makes it look |
|
11:41 | it would be an easy thing to . Uh Just it is, it |
|
11:46 | always, it's not always updated as would what it would be. So |
|
11:49 | I won't have uh 2021 or 2022 2020 20 just because nobody made that |
|
11:57 | and I just don't have time uh go in and, and create all |
|
12:01 | , uh, graphics on my Uh, but anyway, you can |
|
12:05 | that it goes to a lot of , this other products is, |
|
12:09 | things that include plastic. And, , this is an old picture |
|
12:15 | uh, National Geographic, uh, lot of these toys we don't use |
|
12:21 | and things like that. But it just kind of gives you an |
|
12:24 | of it and even the, deciding on that house is supposed to |
|
12:28 | vinyl. And, uh, this from, uh, 2003, |
|
12:32 | 3. You know, a lot people were worried, you know, |
|
12:35 | not gonna be able to make plastics if we use up all of our |
|
12:39 | . And that's why the peak oil a problem in 2003. Everybody was |
|
12:42 | about it. Ok. What does take when we run out of oil |
|
12:51 | ? When the, when the, , prices start going up? What |
|
12:54 | it take? It takes imagination from like you and, uh, you |
|
13:03 | new resources and new uh frontier exploration based on people not following a uh |
|
13:09 | workflow. They're doing exactly differently from everybody else did so that they can |
|
13:17 | to a place that no one thought was anything there and find it. |
|
13:20 | so it's really important to, to that kind of a, I wanna |
|
13:24 | something new attitude. OK. So is a resource? And it's basically |
|
13:32 | that's concentrated enough and it's not, gotta be natural occurring for it to |
|
13:37 | a natural resource and it's gotta be concentrated enough that we can produce it |
|
13:42 | use it. And uh um people go out and broke the oil, |
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13:50 | just because you need oil, they to make money. Companies don't exist |
|
13:55 | income and uh and people don't have unless the companies make income. Uh |
|
14:01 | can argue for years about um why do some of the CEO S |
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14:06 | too much of uh what comes out the and not giving it up to |
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14:10 | people that actually find it? Uh uh and that is a, that's |
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14:14 | social issue that should be addressed. at the end of the day, |
|
14:18 | resource is about something that we uh it's naturally occurring like trees for |
|
14:24 | . And uh and we can figure a way to grow or produce uh |
|
14:28 | raw material and make the things that need uh to live. The lifestyles |
|
14:32 | we live and lifestyles is a very part of this whole problem too. |
|
14:39 | , so when you take the resource , and I'll, I'll start, |
|
14:43 | know, trying to use hydrocarbons in . It applies to anything. |
|
14:49 | we have ones that are discovered, have ones that are undiscovered. |
|
14:57 | this could be so big because we know. And every time somebody discovers |
|
15:02 | over here it's because they did something and you look at a place nobody |
|
15:06 | to look. And uh as, the world is now, it seems |
|
15:11 | be getting smaller and smaller every But we're still in places that just |
|
15:16 | blow our minds uh where we start there and we figure out what little |
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15:22 | conditions made it happen, that oil preserved and that's fine, you |
|
15:28 | volume, he can do something, just a little thing, the size |
|
15:32 | this room, but something, you , millions of barrels, even billions |
|
15:37 | barrels of OK, because that's what takes. And uh some of them |
|
15:45 | sub economic, some are uh economic uh the difference between economic. And |
|
15:53 | really is, this is sort of the borderline between whatever technology we have |
|
16:01 | well enough that we can make money we produce it. Uh I remember |
|
16:07 | when I, before I moved to , I, I discovered um helped |
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16:13 | a few other people. It's not of the walls. I found mine |
|
16:17 | we, um, uh, uh, sort of the, |
|
16:28 | the plan of the kingdom there, , you know, all of it |
|
16:32 | gave it all away to his company first. But, uh, offshore |
|
16:39 | , uh, we found a field that has 60 million barrels of |
|
16:43 | . Now, if you found that 4000 ft you gotta take off. |
|
16:47 | think the other guy out. It's all right. As long |
|
16:52 | as long as I don't touch that's why I'm over here. I |
|
16:57 | . Yeah. So any, uh uh back when uh when that |
|
17:05 | discovered it wasn't enough, it wasn't , but there, there was no |
|
17:10 | . And uh and then what happened uh well, I was gonna say |
|
17:13 | in Texas, there was 4000, , wait until they find something that |
|
17:19 | pulled out 5000 ft. You could all sorts of environmental problems with |
|
17:25 | But uh in Texas, you you might be able to grow a |
|
17:29 | , well, relatively shallow into something 60 million barrels. You would be |
|
17:34 | before but over offshore to the it's a tough environment to put a |
|
17:41 | on. There was no infrastructure, were no pipelines to look into |
|
17:45 | Uh Then a little bit later I went over and started working in |
|
17:49 | and uh that was still helping. One of my friends was able to |
|
17:54 | uh and uh uh we help do more characterization and we were able to |
|
18:02 | get it to where they could make because simply because they put some pipelines |
|
18:06 | uh to uh produce the natural gas the northern part of uh the south |
|
18:12 | had a pass through uh Danish waters it had been allowed to replace the |
|
18:19 | , stuff like that at the same because pipelines could be as expensive as |
|
18:23 | of the other stuff we do combined to find and produce oil pipelines are |
|
18:30 | expensive. Ok? Because you really to make them so they don't leak |
|
18:36 | because when they leak, you lose and uh and cause all kinds of |
|
18:41 | . Now, uh the US Geological , uh if you don't know |
|
18:45 | uh if you, you can do any time you're working anywhere almost in |
|
18:49 | world, sometimes they evaluate stuff in countries. But in the United |
|
18:54 | there's all sorts of things that they uh that no one's drilling. And |
|
18:59 | and like in the uh the Atlantic claim offshore uh East Coast, they |
|
19:07 | done the number, they've done at five or six really broad brush uh |
|
19:13 | of how much oil gas should be there. And uh it's the number |
|
19:17 | higher and higher as we, as uh look at a little bit more |
|
19:22 | . One of your uh examples of exploration will come from the east |
|
19:27 | OK. OK. So uh what's important to remember though is resources. |
|
19:39 | this big pie out there that we off but reserves is something where we |
|
19:46 | , we can cut a slice of , leave enough behind or make enough |
|
19:50 | , then we any better use of product. So we deserve our special |
|
19:55 | of uh total resources, resources out . Uh If the price of oil |
|
20:01 | up all of a sudden economic, me go back to this thing. |
|
20:11 | time the price of oil goes this line goes in. Ok. |
|
20:18 | it doesn't go down really fast because the price of oil goes up, |
|
20:22 | the service companies charge more money to to uh to provide the services because |
|
20:27 | realized there's a, you know, more value in what they're doing and |
|
20:31 | wanna get a share of it. uh and so this line doesn't drop |
|
20:36 | that fast. But one of the why we have cycles because find a |
|
20:43 | of resources, there's a lot of and there's more production in the price |
|
20:49 | . And then when the price goes and we lay everybody off, uh |
|
20:53 | becomes harder and harder to get that million barrels a day during COVID, |
|
20:58 | was down to 80 million girls. uh that was a great help for |
|
21:02 | climate. But uh in the price you know, for people in the |
|
21:07 | , but it, it didn't help oil companies when, uh, when |
|
21:10 | was a huge demand and, and it made the price go down |
|
21:15 | the price goes down, this line up. Ok. So, |
|
21:29 | again, that's what it is. , uh, here I'm not gonna |
|
21:32 | all of this out. But, , but I think it's important you |
|
21:37 | , but you need to read these , uh, get online and make |
|
21:40 | you read them. But, uh have uh a total amount of reserves |
|
21:49 | basically we will list them sometime as and probable. And some of some |
|
21:55 | us also was possible. I know I was a geologist, we did |
|
22:00 | three and it was really a percentage of uh survival. Um This usually |
|
22:06 | if we knew where another uh oil contact was and we had a good |
|
22:10 | a good characterization of reservoir. In words, it was a, it |
|
22:14 | a pretty good reservoir. Uh It easy to pick out what was |
|
22:17 | And what was uh if uh in case, uh maybe if we had |
|
22:23 | fault block next to it and it like it was the same situation for |
|
22:27 | same way. But we didn't have well in that, that fault |
|
22:31 | we have the OK. And uh when I was working in South Marshal |
|
22:38 | 1 28 we had wells uh that full of oil and we didn't know |
|
22:44 | to do water to kind. So didn't know the bottom or what. |
|
22:48 | , uh, so stuff that was below, uh, that depth, |
|
22:53 | lowest occurring, uh, oil, , would be proved in that |
|
22:58 | And how far we thought the oil contact might be, might have been |
|
23:03 | , in the case of South Marshal 1 28. Um, I thought |
|
23:08 | were a lot of stratigraphic traps turns were the fact that it was able |
|
23:12 | show we were able to drill more get more oil, which was one |
|
23:15 | the reasons why I was very successful that, with that field. Uh |
|
23:20 | that in way before the turn of century, we uh we were producing |
|
23:28 | traps in South. I don't remember year I tried to look at |
|
23:34 | It must have run away but somewhere 2002 uh a BT front cover of |
|
23:42 | PG. So your business that's discovering in um in South Marshall. And |
|
23:49 | in first thing I did was then it went to your, maybe |
|
23:57 | guys figure this out. We were this. We were doing this back |
|
24:01 | time ago with geology and uh and don't point that out to um to |
|
24:09 | geophysics. I'm trying to let geologists that there is, there is a |
|
24:14 | we have to make in the geoscience help the geophysicists and they certainly have |
|
24:19 | huge contribution to help us uh, Oil and Gas magazine. Ok. |
|
24:30 | are probability of success and, and lot of times that is, |
|
24:34 | related to what you think the the whole, uh, is gonna |
|
24:39 | . And of course, um, know, you may say you're |
|
24:43 | um, you know, any, as well. P 90 would |
|
24:50 | It depends on the company. and that's what research are usually about |
|
24:54 | they really actually classify this because each has its own set of rules on |
|
24:59 | to do it. And uh a company, they will have a different |
|
25:03 | of different areas. You know, haven't talked about players yet, but |
|
25:08 | different plays, you can expect to certain kinds of recovers and uh that |
|
25:13 | factor uh can have a lot to with, with these terms. And |
|
25:19 | , when you decide as a football , football, football reserves, uh |
|
25:23 | very strict uh issue with the and of the economies uh because you have |
|
25:30 | be really careful, I can tell that uh when I was working on |
|
25:36 | Marshall in 1 28 uh their proven were distant and I was asked to |
|
25:44 | it. And then I took all shale cars out as you know, |
|
25:49 | were doing gross sand instead of net to calculate the reserves. In other |
|
25:55 | , about 300 ft of sand was engineer that was a 300 ft uh |
|
26:03 | container at 26% if it was so then to remove a lot of |
|
26:11 | , the, and so again, went, my boss and a few |
|
26:16 | people. How do you deal with ? How do you do it? |
|
26:18 | . Because that's what I'm being asked . They told me how to |
|
26:22 | uh, it wasn't using math, was using your eye and looking at |
|
26:26 | lot of characteristics and, uh, I reduced, uh, this |
|
26:32 | uh, South Marshal 2028 doesn't work about 45%. And, uh, |
|
26:43 | can put in the books. Two later, the federal government said Mobile |
|
26:48 | converting more oil into the new oil they can charge higher prices for. |
|
26:53 | was back when we had a tiered that new oil is worth more than |
|
26:57 | could sell new oil for more uh, and then, uh, |
|
27:02 | two days later, the president of Corporation down the New Orleans and wanted |
|
27:08 | talk to the guy who took away of the in this. And |
|
27:15 | um, I'm pretty sure I'm not , but I'm younger than I was |
|
27:20 | than most of people. This Oh, my goodness. And, |
|
27:28 | , and, uh, and so came and, uh, this big |
|
27:33 | and of course they had a, . So to do that. |
|
27:45 | uh, so, um, make long story short, we got honored |
|
27:50 | the Federal government for a thinking about blessing. And so I got |
|
27:57 | I got a really strong paddle pack that. Not only did I stick |
|
28:01 | neck out but it was, but was worth and products. And, |
|
28:06 | , so that was a lucky, lucky step for me. And |
|
28:10 | then I proceeded to, uh, go find Strat graphic traps for, |
|
28:14 | was a very good thing too Ok. That's a good question. |
|
28:23 | it's, it's about the definition of really. Uh probable means it's like |
|
28:30 | possible means that and that's exactly what is. And that's where you come |
|
28:37 | with. And uh but drill a , this possible could turn into recruitment |
|
28:45 | , or it could be a investor When you say probable. Uh for |
|
28:52 | , uh I sorry, Tessa, won't be able to see what I'm |
|
29:09 | on the board, but I'll try speak up. Do you think you |
|
29:16 | move um the camera? I don't why, but chalk was very |
|
29:21 | So I have a special, this might be an easy thing. |
|
29:37 | . Oil water contact is down here because of data or something. Uh |
|
29:43 | have a reason to think that stand . So this would be the bottom |
|
29:46 | the residue in your oil tank would there's a fault here. So your |
|
29:54 | column is actually this time and uh oh straight before you guys. Thank |
|
30:13 | . OK. So you, so have a well in here and you |
|
30:17 | , you wanna make all of this except um you only know there's well |
|
30:22 | here. So you don't know your follow. Another thing that you might |
|
30:28 | able to do is based on the and the type type of ceiling that |
|
30:33 | have here in the, you may able to calculate how far down that |
|
30:39 | be that you can go, you , based on the strength of our |
|
30:45 | , you don't have any pro so prove that in this case would be |
|
30:49 | . Yeah, this is, ok. Now down here, there |
|
30:57 | be a trap. They have a dog saying, so there's shale in |
|
31:07 | . And so you have this whole . So if you're going to, |
|
31:10 | , some, some, well, miles where other places you might see |
|
31:16 | other word is missing because of the physical strategy of and uh and |
|
31:24 | you have reason to think that some that might be that they will |
|
31:30 | that might be possible, but it to be, that has to share |
|
31:35 | they have to prove that was for Charter. You know, you might |
|
31:39 | the traps right down there on the over here, but I'm close to |
|
31:43 | reservoir, but there's no oil in . And more importantly, it's |
|
31:49 | it's not at the right depth to up with the. Ok. So |
|
31:53 | not interconnected with this a completely different . So at that point, it's |
|
31:58 | because it has been discovered. I some that were 300 ft thick with |
|
32:05 | ferocity. And man, they were and uh seismic couldn't see it. |
|
32:12 | if you, you know how to false and pinch outs in uh in |
|
32:17 | correlation log correlations, you, you uh you can figure these kinds of |
|
32:21 | out and you'll have a, an like that. OK. Yeah, |
|
32:31 | gonna, I'm gonna give you some the worst blogs in the world, |
|
32:33 | the worst, the worst. They're ones I worked on in my |
|
32:36 | But the um that they're uh they're uh on a shore field in |
|
32:48 | Yeah, the gambler response is let me for OK. This looks |
|
32:58 | stretched out but it still works. This is called the resource Pyra Pyramid |
|
33:06 | basically it kind of shown you there's little fuzzy area but here's unrecoverable. |
|
33:10 | in place. It is technically In other words, we might be |
|
33:15 | to drill that heat, but it cost too much. And this is |
|
33:20 | can drill that deep and still make , that kind of thing. Uh |
|
33:25 | or uh this could be, there's pipeline here and there's not a pipeline |
|
33:32 | and because there's not a pipeline here put an FSPO or whatever, it's |
|
33:37 | of floating in there to uh to it might be too much. Of |
|
33:41 | , those things have actually uh was , producing ships have uh made it |
|
33:49 | of course to produce oil in places are very remote without points circumvent uh |
|
33:57 | things that are technically recoverable, but were financially. And so here is |
|
34:04 | economically uh recoverable resource and then, you have to actually do it, |
|
34:11 | have to find them. And here says proved and probable reserves and a |
|
34:16 | of people aren't gonna put the Like I said, I did this |
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34:20 | I would have found this impossible. , uh, it's a, |
|
34:25 | it's, it was really a lot fun. Every Monday we would, |
|
34:30 | , we would have the whole department together and go over the wells. |
|
34:34 | drill down last week. One that in. They, yes. So |
|
34:40 | up at three o'clock in the morning Saturday and, uh, and you |
|
34:45 | to come in and show them you know, 200 ft feet. |
|
34:50 | , uh, and I got to that next to people that were showing |
|
34:54 | , um, it's a dry it's a dry hole. So |
|
34:58 | I had a little bit of How impactful is that for a |
|
35:03 | The driver. How, oh, depends on the company, depends on |
|
35:09 | company and it depends on how, much of an investment it was. |
|
35:13 | there are, you know, like , $2 million wells, you |
|
35:16 | that are on shore that, that very deep. And stuff like |
|
35:19 | It's not, it's not so Uh, and, you know, |
|
35:22 | of them are gonna be 34 million and stuff like that or even |
|
35:27 | it's like, um, some guy trying to get me to buy into |
|
35:31 | $10 million. Well, and, , the, uh, you |
|
35:37 | that same, well, probably would been when I, when I started |
|
35:40 | would have been a million dollar. , or even less. Uh, |
|
35:44 | , the thing is, is that you're at the upper end, like |
|
35:50 | to frontier, when you do you know, we know less about |
|
35:55 | . Uh, it can be re risky. Um, the deep water |
|
35:59 | off, um, around the turn the century. And, um, |
|
36:07 | , at one point in time their was in Search, I don't remember |
|
36:10 | their last, the last name of oil company was, but it was |
|
36:14 | , a fairly good size independent and put all their money into two deep |
|
36:20 | . Deep water was the word, know, it's like students would come |
|
36:24 | to me, come to my office say doctor, I wanna, |
|
36:28 | work on a deep water and I , put, put deep water, |
|
36:33 | the deep water and I go, , well, what do you, |
|
36:37 | uh offshore Africa, Trinidad with deep , just deep water, you |
|
36:44 | they, but everybody heard deep So we were doing a lot of |
|
36:48 | water stuff and uh the deep you know, they, they got |
|
36:51 | the, the shelf break and they , they were drilling this a lot |
|
36:54 | stuff on the slope and mini basins stuff like that at the time. |
|
36:58 | , uh, but uh the management this company thought, you know, |
|
37:03 | just need to get into deep So they put, they put $60 |
|
37:07 | in, into, they got 50% 2 $60 million wells, $60 million |
|
37:13 | the company. They lost $60 million they were. But, and there's |
|
37:17 | lot of complexities there. And uh when I, when I uh teach |
|
37:23 | biography, it says shows some people it was so complicated. But uh |
|
37:27 | won't, you won't get that example this class. But anyway, um |
|
37:33 | that's, it basically depends on how big of a risk you |
|
37:37 | And uh large oil companies can go bigger risk because they have bigger |
|
37:44 | uh bigger income, you know, have a buffer. Uh when I |
|
37:48 | working at a, we just received billion from uh from uh Iran for |
|
37:54 | settlement of them, taking our land us. And so we had a |
|
37:57 | of money to play with and that that a little bit easier, but |
|
38:02 | most companies don't have that kind of . Ok. Um OK. |
|
38:12 | uh next thing we're gonna, let's , we talked about how do we |
|
38:15 | it? We're looking at resources and and uh now we're gonna look about |
|
38:19 | oil and peak oil. Is that ? And um, and um it's |
|
38:29 | , it's a really tricky, uh think because people relate to, you |
|
38:34 | , the global demand, the whole . What I'm gonna show you is |
|
38:38 | example of the United States because that's it got, you know, we |
|
38:41 | the biggest user and one of the producers, but not at that point |
|
38:45 | time, but we were, we using more than we produce. So |
|
38:49 | were susceptible to people. So it's pretty good example. But the whole |
|
38:53 | at any point in time, uh could change and we could be there |
|
38:58 | . It's just that the way things right now, it almost looks like |
|
39:03 | , peak uh su supply is, uh well, the, the chances |
|
39:12 | us getting to peak demand right now uh very low because we've got a |
|
39:16 | good supply going right now. And somebody named Hubert and it happens, |
|
39:27 | to in English decided they call this oil when you get to that point |
|
39:32 | there's an advance where, where you're completing more than the meat that they |
|
39:36 | to the reserves. And uh but spite of that, um in 18 |
|
39:43 | I liked this chart. Uh I this, I got this chart um |
|
39:48 | that paper and, and it goes for three more pages, but I |
|
39:51 | show one just to give you a of it. But, uh, |
|
39:55 | was really, uh, first place they started, uh, producing |
|
40:00 | Well, few years later they, did it, uh, a couple |
|
40:05 | years later we did it in But my fa, my mother's family |
|
40:11 | up in Pennsylvania and I grew up the United States. We never heard |
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40:14 | Romania though. First, the first was, was in Pennsylvania when I |
|
40:21 | in that perspective, you know, don't see the whole picture. |
|
40:25 | we think we see it but we . And uh and here it says |
|
40:30 | commercial oil production, Canada and uh came in not, not long after |
|
40:36 | . In other words, people were more and more things to do with |
|
40:40 | . We were killing off all the , uh which is where most of |
|
40:43 | whales were coming from uh before And uh realizing that we need to |
|
40:48 | so. Uh but here is the us geological survey was formed in part |
|
40:55 | fear of oil shortages. Hey, people knew what the concept of peak |
|
41:01 | was. We just didn't have a name for it. In uh 18 |
|
41:06 | engineers estimated there's only 95 million barrels oil remained and uh they're producing 25 |
|
41:14 | a year. That means we're gonna peak oil in four years. That |
|
41:19 | true. We actually uh if you're replacing it, you're already at that |
|
41:24 | . Um And then all of a in 19 01, someone drilled, |
|
41:28 | is when we started realizing that we drill a lot of the earlier wells |
|
41:32 | where we had seats of oil coming . And, uh, but then |
|
41:37 | figured out we're gonna go look for , you know, and any client |
|
41:42 | any client that's gonna be um where uh where we grow because obviously, |
|
41:52 | in the gulf coast of what is , yeah, those things can cause |
|
42:14 | uplift. No, and there's layers this and there would be pockets of |
|
42:29 | right here. And then, and and this was a very simple |
|
42:37 | some people would look for these lines , you know, um Pierce junction |
|
42:41 | can see is just in the south here. And uh and it's uh |
|
42:48 | know, especially if you get up they get up one of the high |
|
42:52 | sound, you can see it there of it. But uh more so |
|
43:01 | , you know, you can drive and I think, you know, |
|
43:05 | ft above sea level than this. all of a sudden it was |
|
43:09 | you know, put that, put salt, push it up. And |
|
43:15 | , uh so right around this point time, that was the name of |
|
43:21 | game was to go find all these and build them. Uh many years |
|
43:27 | in, in the uh, probably eighties and the nineties of, |
|
43:30 | 19 eighties, 19 nineties and some the places, some of the, |
|
43:36 | , for us in the, around, uh, Indonesia and |
|
43:42 | New Guinea and places like that, would see these and they, they |
|
43:45 | able to do, uh, the , uh, helicopter pilots would go |
|
43:51 | there and, and fly and they'd these things and, uh, they |
|
43:55 | , they were retired at the of course, but they would see |
|
43:58 | little, the trees were all like somebody would cut it, uh |
|
44:03 | a salt marsh. You know, , the grass grows in a certain |
|
44:06 | but it was sticking up for something set up and all the trees would |
|
44:12 | , you know, almost or, know, that was how they first |
|
44:17 | the, some of the areas that the places like that, but uh |
|
44:24 | lot later than this. But uh they would come in the ground here |
|
44:28 | of course, the big oil companies try to buy up on that |
|
44:32 | And uh as it turns out how people know who found with this |
|
44:37 | those big contributions, you say, know, the old people, you |
|
44:53 | , right? I'm just guessing. , um, like real. Uh |
|
45:01 | , um Oh, ok. that, that would, that would |
|
45:09 | . So anyway, this was the . So here's Johnson just down the |
|
45:16 | uh while the company on this thing um, Roy Marshall, uh his |
|
45:26 | man. So the big companies just on the land. Well, he |
|
45:30 | , well, what about the land to it? So what's really |
|
45:34 | He said, well, go and it. It's cheap. And so |
|
45:37 | bought all the land way up in on this north, south east |
|
45:46 | The mineral turns out all of this , well, all down here. |
|
46:05 | at it for the club. what contact around it? What does |
|
46:16 | look like? It's like a It's called the donut. And he |
|
46:21 | the donut and, uh, little like that. Anyway, uh, |
|
46:34 | Collins became one of the richest families they kind of just, ok. |
|
46:47 | , it would have, it would been, um, it would have |
|
46:51 | , I think it was after this that I think it was in |
|
46:55 | uh, maybe the forties, thirties forties. I, it, it |
|
47:02 | have been too, too long before I'm pretty sure he was still alive |
|
47:06 | he, um, when you donate lot of money to you. Of |
|
47:11 | . Well, let's see. That have been actually not, yeah, |
|
47:15 | would have been. Right, right 2019 19 because, uh, he |
|
47:20 | donating money for sort of like a college in 1927 and then it was |
|
47:25 | called University of Houston in 1934. he donated money before that and, |
|
47:31 | , um, and when, um, when they started, you |
|
47:39 | , building this university. They, I went to school here and way |
|
47:45 | , uh the school, the, original origin, original date of UFH |
|
47:52 | considered 1934. But then they you know, it'll make us solver |
|
47:57 | we go back to 1927 when they started to build it. And it |
|
48:01 | called the University of Houston, but became the University of Houston and it |
|
48:04 | also a private school at first, think. Ok, so here's kind |
|
48:15 | what peak, peak oil looks like the United States. And uh maybe |
|
48:21 | we get through this, we'll take bigger break since we've been in here |
|
48:25 | for about two hours. And I had a chance to take a real |
|
48:29 | . But uh here you can um here's what we are producing and |
|
48:37 | kind of what the predict prediction was uh uh for where we drop |
|
48:46 | here's, here's a total us production . They're looking at uh some of |
|
48:51 | lower 48 stuff and uh here's how meant down here uh as we were |
|
48:57 | into 2000 and of course, we getting more and more wealth from the |
|
49:00 | East. So there was, you , at that point in time, |
|
49:04 | did say the United States that you have to get oil from somebody |
|
49:09 | And uh and that was pretty obvious that's one of the reason why the |
|
49:14 | of oil in this period of And, um, yeah, when |
|
49:22 | started working about, at this point time, I guess about how much |
|
49:27 | barrel will cost $4 per. in, uh, from here to |
|
49:42 | it went to, uh, it from, from that number to somewhere |
|
49:47 | $50 a month, something like And then around here somewhere we went |
|
49:52 | , you know, started to get post, of course, you |
|
49:57 | recently been over that. And and of course, uh before |
|
50:01 | the price of oil dropped dramatically, , oil dropped so much around the |
|
50:05 | 2000 that uh we're gonna take it . Oh, but again, that's |
|
50:17 | because a lot of, a lot geology went into trying to fix this |
|
50:23 | . And so the geologists, all big oil companies in the United States |
|
50:27 | going international and they started finding oil basically they do a good job. |
|
50:33 | , um, if you catch me a party, you hear me talking |
|
50:38 | somebody, they'll say, what do do? I teach a couple of |
|
50:42 | once it sound like I said, , the price of oil is high |
|
50:50 | over, the price of oil is to make sure they get the |
|
50:58 | And, uh, so that's uh I see that one. I |
|
51:04 | it said that the price of oil slow. It means we are too |
|
51:10 | , the wrong things. It's Yeah, now I think the right |
|
51:25 | . Ok, 100 and 80. need, I need to get a |
|
51:28 | . So uh the price of oil up. Um, you know, |
|
51:34 | know that we're, we're getting to point of oversupply. So I tell |
|
51:40 | and again, it's just a It all give them a lot of |
|
51:43 | . So we'll start finding one So uh keep them and, |
|
51:52 | and then when it gets slow, know we need to get it back |
|
51:55 | , we need to find. so talk about how the prediction on |
|
52:02 | how far is. Yeah, I gonna get to that, but |
|
52:10 | I'm just showing you this because this where the United States kind of reached |
|
52:14 | oil and we went out and got stuff and um but um here's what |
|
52:23 | happened. Um It was coming down this, it looked like we reached |
|
52:30 | well. And um uh as we getting down here, we were starting |
|
52:37 | discover new fields in uh Brazil million fields in Brazil. We were finding |
|
52:42 | field in South Africa, South West Africa, we were finding uh |
|
52:47 | oil fields, uh sub salt and and uh under and in front of |
|
52:54 | salt uh down on the slope. off the road, we were doing |
|
52:58 | lot of stuff and so we were a lot of oil. So in |
|
53:03 | , right at this point, I asked, am I worried about this |
|
53:06 | oil? And I said no, I gave him a whole bunch of |
|
53:10 | and ho uh BBC S Horizon, it's like uh the United States |
|
53:16 | and I, and uh so they didn't want to interview me because |
|
53:20 | they put me on V because they me to tell them that this was |
|
53:23 | happen. And I told him, , it's not gonna happen. And |
|
53:27 | uh it started taking off, you see the whole thing, but it |
|
53:30 | taking off because of those discoveries. then of course, by about 2012 |
|
53:35 | events changed the whole world in terms them. And you're talking about risk |
|
53:40 | all that. One of the reasons potentials uh became very favor. A |
|
53:46 | of what is because he almost The problem is the, the drum |
|
53:54 | each hole produces own so much oil uh then it's, and uh the |
|
54:01 | the production curve on a unconventional will very short compared to that eventually. |
|
54:11 | so the risk is low, but report is we have to be dr |
|
54:17 | so we spend a lot of money get their property, but you never |
|
54:21 | $60 million in. And uh so somebody that understands how to deal with |
|
54:30 | and cope with risk and has the cash to do it. You |
|
54:34 | it's, it's like the stock you can go out and dump some |
|
54:37 | in 10 shares. Nine of them be losers if one of them, |
|
54:42 | one of them is, uh, Intel or one of them is an |
|
54:46 | , uh, it doesn't matter that other one is possible. Ok. |
|
54:53 | it, it takes it in the industry, it takes management that |
|
54:57 | is not risk, averse management that how to, how to cope with |
|
55:01 | building. In other words, you don't put all your a in the |
|
55:06 | because like the example I gave you socks, you know, you, |
|
55:10 | grow 10 wells. Um they all a high price rate on. That's |
|
55:16 | add one of those. That's how discovered it. Uh When I was |
|
55:23 | at Amaco Amico ended up throwing in towel because the, the CEO we |
|
55:27 | at the time did not understand and we came up with a, |
|
55:32 | think, um they call it a fall to the prospect. Quality team |
|
55:39 | saved it and wouldn't actually destroy That's everything that we looked at a |
|
55:46 | of success down around 20 just, know, I, I feel this |
|
55:52 | a big oil company. And uh if you had one of the |
|
55:58 | I'll show you was one where we $2 billion of will. If that |
|
56:02 | quality team had been in place when that uh prospect came up, |
|
56:06 | would never do it. It was biggest discovery in the South China Sea |
|
56:10 | and still now to then. So um here is uh showing you |
|
56:18 | of on a global scale what they peak oil is gonna be and uh |
|
56:23 | think we're gonna reach it somewhere Uh They had it written on here |
|
56:28 | but it was around 2022 or something that. We've already, we've already |
|
56:33 | , but we haven't hit people because keep finding more of it. |
|
56:36 | technology is getting better than geophysics, past it. And, uh, |
|
56:42 | our workloads work even, even if , even if they're sometimes, |
|
56:48 | but uh, there's always, and , and there's always these companies like |
|
56:52 | . Now, big people are looking big prizes, they give them a |
|
56:56 | of in place that technical work and has made lots and lots of money |
|
57:05 | a smaller scale. Um, but the CEO is, is one we're |
|
57:10 | in in Texas. Still a, a good thing to do through |
|
57:16 | uh, through this course, you hear me say a lot about Hill |
|
57:19 | . Does anybody here work for Hill ? That's a shame. We, |
|
57:23 | used to have somebody from Hill Corp every, uh, every group. |
|
57:27 | it will happen again. Ok. why was diverted? Well, there |
|
57:34 | a big drop in demand in uh 20 08, 29 because of the |
|
57:39 | slump. Um There's been uh in places including China and other parts of |
|
57:45 | world, even Europe. Now, there's been reduced economic growth and COVID |
|
57:52 | uh from 2020 to 2022. Uh a man dropped 20 million girls and |
|
57:58 | , that's a lot of, that's whole lot of work. And um |
|
58:05 | is this slide is getting to be little bit older, but with Brazil |
|
58:11 | West Africa, the Deepwater offshore um probably nobody in here realizes that |
|
58:20 | , a democrat proved offshore drilling offshore Beach, Virginia, where I grew |
|
58:26 | and really retire. Uh, an oil company, anybody here work |
|
58:35 | oil company named, see that they 11 lives. They made, they |
|
58:42 | 11 short. Um, you we have an oil industry, we |
|
58:49 | safety 11 quarters. It's almost a that the, and, uh, |
|
59:01 | is a, no, they it was merged for, they |
|
59:08 | in fact, when they merged uh, a $2 billion surplus in |
|
59:16 | retirement. So people like me and feel pretty, I know, |
|
59:30 | uh, we also like the, was I said this but I, |
|
59:39 | , uh, but he had a million you can't take surplus, but |
|
59:47 | you work with another company, you're to, uh, reset. Here's |
|
59:57 | piece of a piece of, I believe that too. I think that's |
|
60:01 | really, and the, uh, guy that I was CEO of |
|
60:06 | I don't know whether they actually call a group commander in chief and Royal |
|
60:11 | Goddess, uh, something like But, um, uh, he |
|
60:16 | said is we will realize in $2 surplus the people in the middle |
|
60:29 | you know, um, but, , what they did was they, |
|
60:32 | laid off a lot of people, , to get retirement so they can |
|
60:36 | that, that $2 million. I 11 months shy. That is arguably |
|
60:46 | of the best physics that ever They teach us. Uh What, |
|
60:52 | uh he uh he was one year , I, I could almost understand |
|
61:00 | getting rid of me because I was cranky about it. But uh but |
|
61:04 | , I don't. Kurt marker was of the people who developed the 3d |
|
61:08 | tube and uh 3d seismic wasn't what is today until he developed some of |
|
61:14 | technology and got it patented. So let's take the um real |
|
61:23 | Uh I, OK. I'm uh , let me finish this chart. |
|
61:32 | uh the Eagle for all of these unconventional. Uh And, and I |
|
61:38 | to mention just in the last couple years. Um Guyana and sodium on |
|
61:45 | northern part of uh South America has opened up billions and billions of barrels |
|
61:51 | oil. Uh They had uh a of uh what you would call disappointing |
|
61:58 | over the last 15 years. You , they like, you know, |
|
62:01 | drilling, but we're not finding anything somebody hit a necessary target. Huge |
|
62:09 | well charged from a regional source uh, a classic play that anybody |
|
62:15 | never miss. But they kept missing in the wrong place. Somebody finally |
|
62:21 | in the right place and then they in the right place. They look |
|
62:24 | the rocks at that same age all and down that coast line and it's |
|
62:29 | block full of, uh, of . It's huge. I've heard it |
|
62:35 | that, that this area right it's gonna be worth more than, |
|
62:41 | um, all of this and all this put together. And that's a |
|
62:45 | . I think that's last year. were pretty much I think. |
|
63:03 | I know. It's, it's, huge but you know, it, |
|
63:07 | like the, it's like the you know, once, once you |
|
63:10 | the pattern and the design, the is here is your question. |
|
63:18 | uh, and that's exactly what's happening here. It's just exploding. |
|
63:23 | uh, and now everybody that didn't into it is trying to get into |
|
63:26 | . And the companies, the big that were uh brave enough and wealthy |
|
63:31 | to uh, to keep trying to found something. Ok? And |
|
63:38 | we may get an online student at point in time from, sir, |
|
63:42 | maybe more than one or two because been uh calling and asking about this |
|
63:50 | . Ok. We'll take a break . I'm gonna take uh a 20 |
|
63:55 | break just because it's been quite a and I didn't get a break when |
|
63:58 | guys got a break. Hello, . Are you there? Yeah. |
|
64:20 | , I went and, uh, up the, uh, the people |
|
64:24 | the, uh, advising office uh, asked them to find out |
|
64:29 | you haven't been, uh, registered , but it should be soon. |
|
64:33 | . Good. Yeah, I'm, starting to get worried about it. |
|
64:37 | , I am myself, I so we keep, the university loves |
|
64:42 | make rules to make it hard to things. Yeah. Anyway, we'll |
|
64:49 | back to this. So we, , oh, that's just exactly what |
|
65:00 | need right now. Problem is I see it. Ok. It |
|
65:28 | Why is it on that screen? . Uh, I'm glad I have |
|
65:35 | new computer. Let's see. here we go. And, |
|
65:43 | anyway, we, um, I'm have to try to sit down more |
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65:47 | , uh, I have bad knees my knee is really killing me. |
|
65:52 | , I do like to get up be animated. But, uh, |
|
65:57 | anyway, we got to this, slide and we're coming here and we |
|
66:02 | kind of talking about this, earlier and one of, one of |
|
66:06 | issues they're low risk that the problem unconventional is the drawdown is very |
|
66:12 | And, uh, I made a of, uh, figuring out what |
|
66:17 | percent was over here. So about about one year, 60% 69% of |
|
66:22 | production is gone. And, uh, and then the, |
|
66:31 | water cut gets really high and here's another deal. Uh, before |
|
66:35 | had unconventional wells, if wells were something around 50% water cut, in |
|
66:42 | words, it was half water, oil, uh they would set the |
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66:46 | in and uh let the reservoir start charge back up with unconventional. It |
|
66:53 | work that way. Unconventional. The comes with water, it doesn't come |
|
66:56 | water, it doesn't flow very The water is part of what creates |
|
67:01 | some of the a temporary porosity uh in the uh system. So uh |
|
67:07 | lot of the wells will start out 50%. Uh of course, a |
|
67:14 | cut and uh as they produce it this curve, that water cut keeps |
|
67:19 | up and up and up and And what that means is you have |
|
67:22 | keep disposing of more and more waste . And uh one of the technological |
|
67:27 | that all the companies are working on is ways to recapture that water recycle |
|
67:32 | , clean it. Uh It used be considered too expensive, but it's |
|
67:36 | what we just don't have millions of of water uh to, to uh |
|
67:43 | water to pull out of an aquifer have, have enough water for the |
|
67:47 | in agriculture and all that kind of . So, so uh that technology |
|
67:52 | get to the point where they're self-sustaining , and uh if they do that |
|
67:55 | be great, but it's, it's take a lot of cost right |
|
67:59 | Um A lot of the injection wells 12 $12 a barrel uh to inject |
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68:06 | . Some places it could be, could be even higher. So that |
|
68:09 | another cost to the production of that that's ever diminishing. OK? Here |
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68:16 | um uh one of the projections on oil demand. And uh here you |
|
68:24 | see obviously this isn't gonna happen and can see that this started going back |
|
68:32 | . So now the curve kind of kind of across that, that uh |
|
68:37 | of time, almost like a straight when you smooth, smooth your averages |
|
68:44 | . Um But uh here you can , oh I'm not on the right |
|
68:52 | . OK? I have two slides front of me, some. So |
|
68:55 | you can see this is kind of , you know, we had that |
|
68:58 | dip smoothed out, it doesn't look bad. And here uh you |
|
69:02 | on a tighter scale, but uh if you um project it in the |
|
69:07 | , this is what folks think is happen. This was BP in |
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69:13 | And um I haven't changed that. One of the, one of the |
|
69:18 | I do like about BP is they a really good um summary every year |
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69:24 | uh the 2017 numbers would have come in 2018 or 2019 because it takes |
|
69:29 | while for them to get the then it takes a while from the |
|
69:33 | . And uh, so you can't get the good stuff, but here |
|
69:35 | can see that it doesn't look like oil is imminent in the near |
|
69:42 | And um, so peak demand is , is really the issue. |
|
69:48 | if the demand goes away, then production can come down and it doesn't |
|
69:55 | . And uh you can barely see what happened here in 2020. You |
|
70:01 | see the curve kind of came down little bit, but the global demand |
|
70:05 | . And again, this is not US curve, this is the world |
|
70:12 | . So uh it's not something we to worry about right now. And |
|
70:19 | which is, which is a good . And uh it's also um you |
|
70:23 | , if, if the alternate energy start doing a better job of replacing |
|
70:30 | of this, then then that will uh leave pressure uh reduce pressure on |
|
70:36 | the possibility of peak demand. And here we are um these predictions came |
|
70:46 | in January 2023. I thought there be something new or usually there's something |
|
70:50 | June. I couldn't find anything in or I would have popped it up |
|
70:53 | . I had this ready for my in the spring and um but I |
|
70:58 | seen anything uh recently on projections, I think I think they're kind of |
|
71:04 | OK. Here, you can see is the world production like this and |
|
71:09 | , they were back then uh expecting it might, might take off a |
|
71:13 | bit any time there's a gap on side. Uh In other words, |
|
71:19 | production right in here being uh higher the world consumption, which is down |
|
71:29 | , that would be a surplus. uh when this was, when this |
|
71:34 | done, I think they, they a bit of a, an idea |
|
71:37 | they were gonna have some issues going uh because of the war in |
|
71:42 | But uh some of that's kind of out right now. I personally think |
|
71:48 | that there are other other forces involved could cause problems. The United States |
|
71:55 | uh seems to be booming through this and everything, even though people say |
|
71:59 | not doing well, our GDP is , which is, you know, |
|
72:06 | much uh the reason for uh for I just said and, uh and |
|
72:12 | you know, everything's running along It's uh something you typically see. |
|
72:20 | um when, when a lot of factors are going really well, uh |
|
72:27 | is, is a real hiccup and causing problems just because it increases the |
|
72:32 | uh deficit because we, we, money we borrow has to, you |
|
72:38 | , we have to pay it out more money. So the interest rate |
|
72:40 | up against us, it goes up the banks and it goes up against |
|
72:44 | the banks around the world. And increases in interest rate actually can have |
|
72:49 | negative impact on the economy. And seeing a little bit of that. |
|
72:58 | , so now I wanna get that's peak oil. So now I |
|
73:01 | get to inconvenient truth. And um think, I think more than anything |
|
73:07 | population is really the problem and uh is just showing you uh this is |
|
73:14 | um pretty much um uh I think the top 11 economic countries plus uh |
|
73:23 | China, which is another big But um you can see that um |
|
73:29 | lot of growth is, has been on in population. India is |
|
73:34 | all of Africa is growing. Uh here is growing slowly but you can |
|
73:39 | if they, when they project uh you get the tail end that |
|
73:42 | don't see over here. Uh so it kind of smooth it out and |
|
73:47 | can see that on a on a term thing, China's population is gonna |
|
73:52 | growing. And part of the reason is that uh people were allowed at |
|
73:57 | point in time, people were allowed have one child. Now they're allowed |
|
73:59 | have two people that are, that agriculture allowed to have more Children, |
|
74:04 | always been allowed to have more But uh as long as their economy |
|
74:07 | doing well, I think their population gonna start going up as well. |
|
74:12 | , uh, and I think, that's one of the things that we |
|
74:17 | to be, uh, you if you, I call this an |
|
74:23 | truth because if, yes, if go to what it used to look |
|
74:29 | , and this is a chart that's identical to, uh this chart over |
|
74:34 | is almost identical to what Al Gore . And he didn't mention that this |
|
74:38 | a problem. He uh simply mentioned CO2 is going up. But uh |
|
74:45 | think it's very clear, I don't what we can do about it or |
|
74:50 | we can do anything about it. it's very clear that population itself is |
|
74:54 | single biggest reason we're having problems with environment. And uh uh if, |
|
75:01 | all of our cars were running on uh salt water, uh we'd |
|
75:06 | have problems because of the population that have. Uh it, it creates |
|
75:12 | , a tremendous burden on um on just if you just consider the agricultural |
|
75:19 | that uh that comes with having to a lot of people. And uh |
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75:23 | know, a lot of us wanna over to, to vegetables instead of |
|
75:28 | and you know, that creates its problem too. And uh it's, |
|
75:33 | uh you know, I guess the is if, if you grow crops |
|
75:39 | feed the cattle, uh you also to deal with methane from the |
|
75:43 | Whereas if you just grow crops, have to deal with all the methane |
|
75:46 | the crops. And, uh, a lot of people aren't aware that |
|
75:50 | creates a huge footprint and we don't work and we don't even worry about |
|
75:55 | or talk about it because we we don't have meters out there measuring |
|
76:01 | much rotting, uh, vegetation is on top of a, uh, |
|
76:06 | top of a farm field. We , uh, and in the |
|
76:10 | a lot of people didn't realize that you just take, you just uh |
|
76:15 | farming equipment and turn the soil you're releasing CO2 and uh and methane |
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76:21 | the atmosphere because the bacteria is, destroying it. You doing? |
|
76:25 | back there? Yes. OK. , uh so this, this again |
|
76:33 | , is uh is uh something that think is an issue. Now when |
|
76:38 | was, when I was born, probably shouldn't show you this. But |
|
76:41 | I was born, that's about where curve was. And um uh you |
|
76:48 | , we're at about 2.5 billion people uh big chunk of them lived in |
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76:54 | . And now, um as of 2022 we're on the red curve. |
|
77:02 | when I was teaching this in the 2020 this, this number hadn't |
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77:07 | posted yet. It takes a while people to uh to get all their |
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77:11 | together. But, but that's where was in 11 2022. Just a |
|
77:17 | months ago, several months. Um about, about half a year |
|
77:22 | And, uh and some people were that it's probably gonna go like this |
|
77:28 | it might go like this if it like this, I'm afraid there's only |
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77:32 | reason that would cause that and I want to even mention it. |
|
77:36 | uh, but I think, uh is, is something that we have |
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77:40 | uh deal with more than just I think everything that humans do is |
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77:46 | a problem. Um, you um, again, its perspective, |
|
77:54 | had a committee, the sustainability committee this campus and they got a bunch |
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78:00 | uh history teachers and English teachers and a couple of scientists. But I |
|
78:04 | think they got an engineer and they if we got um, toilets that |
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78:09 | only half a gallon or a gallon of the two gallons or whatever, |
|
78:13 | save a lot of, a lot water. Turns out half of the |
|
78:16 | doesn't have the pressure necessary for those to work properly. They finally got |
|
78:22 | uh about 10 years later, but , for 10 years over in, |
|
78:27 | our building and some of the buildings here you had to flush, you |
|
78:30 | to flush at least twice to get to work if not three times because |
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78:34 | pressure wasn't right. So an engineer have known that was a problem day |
|
78:40 | . But a whole group of people to solve the problem. They don't |
|
78:43 | understand, came up with the wrong and putting those in now that we |
|
78:48 | the pressure up would be really But for a long time, we |
|
78:51 | wasting a lot of work. And and again, you have to understand |
|
78:57 | what the problem is before you try solve it. OK. So, |
|
79:04 | so we all know that around 18 the um we had an uh industrial |
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79:15 | where we started burning hydrocarbons. Uh just oil but coal, we started |
|
79:20 | coal. And then uh a few later, we started hitting the heavy |
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79:25 | the uh liquid fuels. But uh besides burning hydrocarbons, it started with |
|
79:31 | industrial revolution started that also has a uh somewhere between uh 30 to 35% |
|
79:41 | all of the anthropogenic hydrocarbons come from I think that we don't even measure |
|
79:56 | . What do you think started to on a global scale in the developed |
|
80:02 | ? First, it had all the . The timing is kind of interesting |
|
80:19 | . We started having more and more farming and the more mechanized farming, |
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80:24 | had, the more fuel we had burn, the more mechanized farming we |
|
80:30 | , the more we overturned the fields , the more we uh did a |
|
80:34 | of things. But what else So a whole bunch of things started |
|
80:44 | happen in the industrial revolution, not burning hydrocarbons, but turning over the |
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80:50 | , doing a lot more with But we also started to put uh |
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80:54 | , we uh for flood control and irrigation, we started damming rivers and |
|
81:00 | started drilling lots of wells. And you think about water coming out of |
|
81:06 | well and uh water not being allowed make it to the ocean into the |
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81:11 | water, you're creating volumes of water can evaporate quicker and go into the |
|
81:18 | quicker. So, uh all of things related to uh in a certain |
|
81:24 | to agriculture were taking off in a way too. And uh you |
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81:29 | when you get in a car and burn 20 gallons of gas or 10 |
|
81:33 | of gas, it's measured, somebody how much, how much we |
|
81:37 | how much we produced, how much burned. But uh figuring out how |
|
81:41 | CO2 is being released in a field not really understood. Uh One good |
|
81:47 | that's happened recently is a lot of has reverted to uh methods that do |
|
81:54 | turnover of the field. Uh because realize that they're actually releasing gasses into |
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81:59 | atmosphere on a huge scale. Just if you go into a rainforest, |
|
82:06 | down all the trees that are pulling out of the atmosphere falling down, |
|
82:12 | and returning a little bit of it the plants that are growing on top |
|
82:16 | them. But at the same it's sequestering a lot of CO2 just |
|
82:20 | if you go in and plow that . So, this CO2 sequestration area |
|
82:27 | now a CO2 um emissions area on major scale. And, uh, |
|
82:35 | the rainforests are not only important so we have beautiful trees and cute little |
|
82:40 | living in them, uh, in nasty ones too, by the |
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82:44 | But it's also important, uh, , uh, sequestering CO2. And |
|
82:53 | I've added this slide and I, I don't wanna go ahead and read |
|
82:57 | , but I would invite you to it because it's a lot of |
|
83:01 | But, um, there's gonna be billion people. Uh This is, |
|
83:09 | is how quick it went from 7.4 too long ago to eight, |
|
83:13 | And uh because this slide isn't that 2012. And, uh and |
|
83:21 | um, when I say population, of the things is we have to |
|
83:27 | everybody, you know, we can't food and no matter what we |
|
83:31 | we're gonna need to have hydrocarbons in food. And so we're gonna have |
|
83:35 | grow and raise and, and uh uh uh hydrocarbons and um 30% is |
|
83:45 | to how much transportation puts out. uh and I'll bring up a couple |
|
83:51 | other points, but uh population by is, I think without a |
|
83:59 | the single most important uh aspect to , you know, if, if |
|
84:05 | can't, we have to learn how deal with these, these increased |
|
84:10 | I mean, our technology has to rapidly. And, uh, you |
|
84:15 | , one hope is is that artificial might help us. The problem with |
|
84:19 | lot of problems with artificial intelligence is averages data that could be good with |
|
84:26 | that could be erroneous. And, , that's one of the problems that |
|
84:29 | still have with it. And, , and I, as you saw |
|
84:34 | , we were struggling with artificial intelligence was operating on, on in the |
|
84:38 | in this computer. Uh It doesn't work out well. OK. |
|
84:44 | another thing, uh and I put in here in, I get a |
|
84:50 | of pushback on it. But um number one greenhouse gas on this |
|
85:00 | almost as soon as things started living it was, was water and the |
|
85:06 | one greenhouse gas 100 years ago was . The number one greenhouse gas today |
|
85:12 | still H2O and a lot of atmospheric have been ignoring this, this |
|
85:19 | Some of them will tell you you know, temperature controls humidity |
|
85:25 | and then therefore the volume uh so can't be the problem. But |
|
85:31 | that's a very um naive way of at it. You know, Nobel |
|
85:36 | have said this and the problem is that, that would be |
|
85:42 | Yes. The relative humidity of the everywhere was the same number all the |
|
85:50 | . In other words, if it always 50% 60% or 100%. But |
|
85:55 | isn't. There are places, that are 0% because there's not enough |
|
86:00 | source. But if we're putting new sources close to the surface, we're |
|
86:05 | , we're, we're producing them out the ground, just like we're in |
|
86:09 | of, of gallons and barrels. , a day of water is being |
|
86:14 | to the surface in well. uh, and a lot of people |
|
86:18 | , well, it just rains and falls down. But, but you're |
|
86:21 | sequestered water supply and putting it in atmospheric supply. And that's why it's |
|
86:26 | problem. And uh and it it may take certain people a while |
|
86:33 | , to grasp that. And part the problem is this uh the |
|
86:37 | the people that wrote these papers and this research uh on the slide before |
|
86:42 | got a lot of pushback. But it turns out, people are starting |
|
86:45 | realize they were right. And, , and we have a real issue |
|
86:51 | . OK. And uh and there can read this too, but I |
|
86:54 | much said what was the most important of it? But I do uh |
|
86:58 | that you read this because uh if read the, if you read parts |
|
87:02 | the book and look at most of slides after hearing the lecture, you're |
|
87:07 | , you're gonna get a, a or above in this class, but |
|
87:11 | nobody ever gets above a 90 on , on the uh test in my |
|
87:16 | . So I'm hoping you guys are be a great group and you actually |
|
87:21 | study some of this stuff when you a chance. OK. So uh |
|
87:29 | next big thing is the pace of replacement by carbon free. You can't |
|
87:34 | it on here, but it says free alternates. OK? And uh |
|
87:40 | really address that you need to kind consider how much energy we need. |
|
87:44 | what is the mix of primary energy ? And I'll show you some pie |
|
87:50 | . They don't come out every But whenever, whenever somebody publishes |
|
87:53 | I grab it so I can put in here and uh keep it |
|
87:57 | I've been doing, I've been keeping of this since, since 2002 to |
|
88:01 | to get a handle of in, 2002. The data was from |
|
88:05 | Um get a handle on how well , what's, it's kind of like |
|
88:08 | scorecard on how well we're doing to the hydrocarbon part of our mix with |
|
88:17 | . And uh I'm gonna show you example from the US again because uh |
|
88:22 | anybody can do it, it should us. And uh if I put |
|
88:27 | whole world up there, the scorecard look worse. OK. Here. |
|
88:34 | Here is uh just uh what's really in recent past, the US was |
|
88:41 | leader in, in uh in wasting . And uh China is definitely overtaken |
|
88:47 | United States. And again, this to population and the other part of |
|
88:52 | po population was GEP. I forgot mention that I want to slide before |
|
88:58 | . I showed the G A as the G GDP of any society goes |
|
89:08 | , investing product goes up. In words, wealth as wealth grows, |
|
89:12 | consumption grows. And so the more we have on the world and the |
|
89:18 | equitable we are with the way uh society is the more likely that we're |
|
89:24 | have to increase in the, for foreseeable future. Uh that apparently we're |
|
89:32 | doing a good job of replacing uh the moment. And um, so |
|
89:38 | think this is sort of, this the problem that faces us. The |
|
89:43 | is, is growing, it's red . That's the best way I think |
|
89:47 | put it. And uh and countries have limited GDP are exploding and uh |
|
89:55 | hearing really good things about India. economy is starting to explode and its |
|
90:01 | has exploded and they uh they now work and uh and uh unless these |
|
90:09 | uh don't like the good life and know that's not true. Uh that |
|
90:14 | is gonna have to grow and their rates are gonna have to go |
|
90:18 | And so India is going to be for uh energy from other places even |
|
90:25 | than already. OK. So here uh energy by uh source and this |
|
90:38 | in, uh, when was it ? And, uh, this was |
|
90:44 | role of petroleum pain natural gas. , this would be essentially oil |
|
90:50 | uh, some of the, lighter, uh, yes, the |
|
90:55 | gasses, uh, lighter liquids. , uh, and, uh, |
|
91:00 | was 23%. Nuclear power was renewable energy was 6%. And if |
|
91:10 | take that 6% and break it down this, what's real obvious alter? |
|
91:20 | think, we think we're solving a by using biologists. Unfortunately, |
|
91:28 | you burn it. We get CO2 . Um, yeah, then we |
|
91:33 | to take grease of the oil and and throw it out on the street |
|
91:39 | let it evaporate. Right? You that? Not good at all? |
|
91:54 | . Ok. Well, anyway, , uh, I think what's really |
|
92:01 | is that in terms of, alternates that biomass, right? There |
|
92:06 | 50% of, of what they make . Yeah, that's not really helping |
|
92:13 | there. Uh, when, when started working at Mobile, a lot |
|
92:18 | people, uh, are unaware of , but, uh, back then |
|
92:23 | actually had, they were the largest , a lot of the patents, |
|
92:28 | this is why we have to, , tags now. And, |
|
92:34 | then I don't think they would have to where they are now, but |
|
92:36 | had started and back many decades uh, Mobile was one of the |
|
92:43 | feeders and, uh, and they producing, um, some of the |
|
92:51 | . And, uh, and we're about wait for 2000 and, |
|
92:56 | but it was an economic debt. , uh, now, now it |
|
93:01 | because, especially because we've been But, uh, that's something that |
|
93:08 | and, uh, another thing they with this biomass, they were trying |
|
93:12 | , uh, figure out how to , um, biofuels, uh, |
|
93:19 | back then too. What do you happened? It's still happening today. |
|
93:26 | , uh for you to produce biofuels , it takes almost as much energy |
|
93:31 | in some cases, more energy to like if you're you doing sugar |
|
93:36 | if you do sugar cane in Brazil they have people um have to be |
|
93:41 | how I say this, but they have said Brazil, I should have |
|
93:45 | countries that have very cheaply. Uh do sugar cane in Brazil, you |
|
93:50 | actually do it with people instead of and you actually get a, it |
|
93:55 | becomes a good alternate source. Uh of the main reasons for doing this |
|
94:00 | because we thought there was gonna be oil, there's pe oil and you |
|
94:04 | have enough oil, you gotta make some happen, this would be |
|
94:08 | but it's not really green, it's alternate, but it's not really a |
|
94:12 | alternate. And uh it's really hard get that point across. And uh |
|
94:17 | this is what they're doing. Uh is what we as a society are |
|
94:22 | to try to reduce that 39% that of that 20. So, |
|
94:34 | um, so up to that then we go to 2016 and, |
|
94:45 | , here you can see, and I had more slides, |
|
94:51 | further back too, but if if I take, take all of |
|
94:55 | , but here we, you can of understand this thing. Now, |
|
94:59 | , this is cold and juicy, also, we can see it. |
|
95:09 | it's, it's down here. but yes, it's, it's lost |
|
95:12 | numbers but it's lost it. petroleum is up here and natural gas |
|
95:16 | expanding. Uh, one of the things about natural gas is it, |
|
95:22 | , often can be, uh, less, uh, co2, |
|
95:27 | when you burn it because it produces , more heat or, uh, |
|
95:34 | and, uh, and this, produces a lot more CO2 to get |
|
95:38 | same amount of energy as the standard . In other words, it's |
|
95:41 | it's mostly hydrogen and, and, , if you think about it in |
|
95:44 | real simple way that hydrogen is sort a factor, um, that |
|
95:50 | creates the energy, it's really, really burning hydrogen, uh, when |
|
95:54 | burning, uh, natural gas and , uh, and the other side |
|
95:59 | it is, uh, and of course, you know, you |
|
96:02 | a long likelihood change and stuff like to get the, uh, some |
|
96:08 | the, uh, tubes that come of the refineries and stuff like that |
|
96:12 | the CO2. So you have, a lot of problem or problems when |
|
96:16 | using the A and, um, this is a reason why natural gas |
|
96:23 | , should still be a big And, uh, here you can |
|
96:29 | the biomass has been reduced down to here. And, uh, and |
|
96:37 | has grown a little bit and so and so forth. But you can |
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96:41 | here that all total renewable energy and of it's a little, a little |
|
96:46 | , just a little bit more it's cleaner. Uh, but if |
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96:49 | just take the clean things, um, things that are carbon |
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96:55 | uh, has gone from, 3 to 5.4% for a, for |
|
97:02 | average of 2.4 over, um, years. Uh, we've gained almost |
|
97:09 | much and over those years it ends in, um, uh, this |
|
97:17 | the carbon neutral part of it. that by the, by the, |
|
97:21 | , by the number of years and 0.16%. Uh, it's grown |
|
97:28 | So, what it, what it , what it means is this, |
|
97:31 | pie has gotten just a little tiny bigger and displaced a little bit more |
|
97:37 | this than it did, uh, year. Ok. So, and |
|
97:43 | 15 years it's a total of So, in 15 years, what |
|
97:48 | is it gonna be? 38? about 35. Yeah. So, |
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98:00 | we have all these targets for How are we gonna get there? |
|
98:05 | . So I think, well, , we were just starting to do |
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98:09 | renewable stuff here, which we weren't , but we were putting more thought |
|
98:15 | it was basically what happened. And , we, we were always doing |
|
98:19 | lot of renewables that were uh carbon , but never, never nearly enough |
|
98:26 | we have to do. So I , well, what about the last |
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98:29 | years when we, we started subsidizing and just dumping money in it like |
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98:33 | million billions if not trillions of And so through 2019, renewable energy |
|
98:41 | up to 10%. I mean, to 10%. And uh so from |
|
98:49 | to 2019, it gives you four . Um the carbon neutral increase is |
|
98:58 | a year. And uh and that 2020. So if you take all |
|
99:04 | that though and average it out 2020 COVID. We had the drop in |
|
99:08 | . But if you take that whole of time, it's been increasing. |
|
99:14 | . It's not, it's not It's 0.2 it's less than 1% it's |
|
99:20 | than a third of a percent. multiply that times 10 years. If |
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99:26 | keep growing our supply as much as have so far, we still will |
|
99:31 | achieve um 100% about 30 years um in 30 years, we would |
|
99:41 | uh 11th, I mean, three , it'll take three years just to |
|
99:48 | a little bit over three years to 1%. So, uh this is |
|
99:56 | growing fast. There's no way we achieve the replacement of all of this |
|
100:02 | and the demand of this energy is up every day. So the population |
|
100:08 | that the man continues to rise, you like it or not, it's |
|
100:14 | . And uh and I, and wouldn't know how to stop it. |
|
100:18 | be honest with you, people would mad at you if you said you |
|
100:23 | to cut back, you know, gonna be the hardest thing in the |
|
100:26 | if we do it. And um , so that's, that's sort of |
|
100:35 | underlies this and that, that's why , I'm very worried and uh about |
|
100:40 | we're gonna get to where we wanna . And um but there's, you |
|
100:46 | , you're listening to this and it makes no sense to you because you |
|
100:51 | hearing we built enough windows to how house with a million houses, we |
|
101:00 | enough power to power the city of . Generation right now is at a |
|
101:09 | low level. But one important not very many people. Once we |
|
101:16 | driving electric cars, there will be efficiency involved in it, but there's |
|
101:22 | inefficiencies in the distribution of electricity, you might be able to replace less |
|
101:27 | all of this and still have the feet running, but the car feet |
|
101:31 | only one part of it. And other thing is, is, |
|
101:36 | people to talk about renewables like to you power generate what they wanna tell |
|
101:42 | what they can do with power And, uh, that's, that's |
|
101:46 | of the, um, unfortunate things about, uh, the, |
|
101:54 | perception that we have of it. , you know, when we're told |
|
101:57 | , you know, they have enough power a million people's houses. Uh |
|
102:01 | not, uh we don't look at big picture of the whole energy |
|
102:05 | This, this is all not how generation is a small part of |
|
102:13 | And uh and I'll show you some and um, and then I, |
|
102:19 | did, I did do this one for 2020 to show you that |
|
102:24 | if we, um if you get of 20 million barrels a day, |
|
102:35 | the contribution of renewables goes up and basically happened because 20 million barrels uh |
|
102:43 | disappeared from the OK. And here , um this is something that I |
|
102:55 | out of the Wall Street Journal. wouldn't recommend reading the editorial pages in |
|
102:59 | Wall Street Journal, but the, data that they put in the Wall |
|
103:02 | Journal is usually pretty darn good. have, uh they use excellent |
|
103:07 | Have a lot of, I have lot of faith in their reporters and |
|
103:13 | So we were looking at 2020 this where we were and this is where |
|
103:22 | have to get by 20 fif 50 we uh are gonna do this and |
|
103:28 | are we gonna do that? we're not gonna, how are we |
|
103:32 | get a third of a percent of increase to do this? This is |
|
103:35 | amount of money it's gonna take to you're spending 1.2 trillion, Um be |
|
103:42 | to get to that point. And , and that's uh um that's a |
|
103:48 | of money and that's just looking at economically. Technically, when I look |
|
103:56 | this thing, I don't know how gonna do it technically, but financially |
|
104:01 | gonna be a huge burden as OK? And, and uh one |
|
104:07 | the uh exercises I'm gonna uh hand to you guys probably tomorrow is that |
|
104:13 | would like and, and this is gonna be something that takes you a |
|
104:16 | of time. But what you're gonna is get online, look at some |
|
104:21 | , whatever, look for some real . It can give you some insights |
|
104:26 | our, the challenge and also our solve there's real data out there. |
|
104:33 | You can totally disagree with everything I . As long as you have data |
|
104:37 | show, if you just focus on generation, you're gonna make it look |
|
104:42 | I tell you why. But it's , it's just that power generation is |
|
104:47 | small part of our overall need. uh and, and here's, here's |
|
104:54 | thing. Uh uh the next thing wanna show you is, you |
|
104:58 | where, where do we stand right ? And uh and these are the |
|
105:05 | that don't have perfect foots. And the US is not the leader right |
|
105:13 | because of a lot of things that happened in China. But we've been |
|
105:17 | leader in these things uh since, , since the day I was |
|
105:23 | And uh so it's, you I often sense that people think we |
|
105:28 | work on this, but we've been this for decades and in fact, |
|
105:33 | half a century. So here is meters in nuclear power production and um |
|
105:47 | numbers um basically are, are showing how much it's gone up recently. |
|
105:56 | I think in the last uh year so, but the US has, |
|
106:00 | still added some tera watts. Uh has fallen down a little bit. |
|
106:05 | when we, normally, when you about it, everybody thinks France is |
|
106:09 | be and uh France, France hasn't the leader uh in nuclear power, |
|
106:15 | France, France produces about 100% of electricity and they switch over to um |
|
106:26 | cars. This number can't keep going . This number is gonna have to |
|
106:31 | up. Ok? And it's, it's not, they're, you |
|
106:35 | they're worried about the environmental impact of course, has built a lot |
|
106:39 | nuclear power plants, theirs has gone 100 and 20 watts. And of |
|
106:47 | , uh, uh, if you about it, you know, they're |
|
106:51 | catch up with us pretty soon, definitely gonna surpass, I'm sure |
|
106:56 | within another year they're gonna surpass And, uh, it produces about |
|
107:06 | of the, uh, the world's for electricity and that's, and, |
|
107:12 | all of that energy goes into electricity the way. So this is 10% |
|
107:19 | all of our energy needs. So just even from this chart alone, |
|
107:24 | can kind of see that nuclear power cover all the electricity, but electricity |
|
107:29 | that big, big of a park to transportation and other things, excuse |
|
107:39 | . But this is just uh this just over the last uh the last |
|
107:44 | it's switched since uh since uh I know if I have the other |
|
107:48 | I don't have another chart here. used to have a whole bunch of |
|
107:51 | almost like. But uh but uh , this is recent growth or a |
|
107:57 | or all that, you know, , some countries are making progress with |
|
108:02 | , some aren't. But again, the, the one technology that we |
|
108:07 | have that could start filling the gap be nuclear power. And uh most |
|
108:12 | are very frightened of uh nuclear power good reason. OK. Here is |
|
108:20 | photovoltaic energy that there's also um uh energy to straight. Um uh where |
|
108:30 | heat water, sunlight and stuff like . Um, I even helped my |
|
108:35 | feel very good build. Uh Solar had, had a little, it |
|
108:46 | a personal which really focuses the the sunlight that this glass ball would |
|
108:53 | water in it and it would start boil and the would come out |
|
108:58 | but it was, it was a to do it if you had like |
|
109:03 | turbine and they can spin. So, uh but that's, that's |
|
109:08 | the other type of uh solar energy . But uh the TV is the |
|
109:12 | that we're really hoping. Uh but you can see um the US uh |
|
109:20 | one point in time uh was at top, China has been um installing |
|
109:26 | even faster than me. And uh , there's huge fields in Georgia and |
|
109:30 | , when I drive across the country a year or two to uh South |
|
109:35 | , you see a lot of solar fields and stuff like that, but |
|
109:39 | still, you know, it's, still, it's kind of a big |
|
109:43 | for power generation and power generation is small part of the energy. And |
|
109:53 | this one would be plus or minus 2016. You can't see it. |
|
109:59 | , it's back there and that one think was just over the last few |
|
110:06 | , the last year. Ok. here is um it's wind energy. |
|
110:19 | . Let me show you something. is another thing about perspective. What |
|
110:27 | that tell you what is the word here? It's called, this is |
|
110:33 | much they produced. This isn't how they have capacity for this is how |
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110:39 | they produce. If you have solar wind, they tell you capacity, |
|
110:46 | never tell you production because production would impress you because that's another thing. |
|
110:51 | only it's a contribution to power a small part of the total |
|
110:56 | but also they don't even tell you their production is because production of solar |
|
111:01 | wind uh month to month is never than 30% of its capacity. So |
|
111:08 | , if you can imagine nuclear power every nuclear power plant worth of |
|
111:13 | we had to build three nuclear power . Can you imagine how expensive that |
|
111:18 | be? And um so here you see um this again its capacity, |
|
111:31 | was production. This one is the . Ok. Yeah. Was sitting |
|
111:39 | full capacity the whole time. That's it would produce. Almost never |
|
111:47 | might happen a couple of days in row. Uh But it doesn't happen |
|
111:51 | , for a month, a couple years ago. Now during COVID, |
|
111:57 | the wind stopped blowing in Europe and were in real trouble with uh with |
|
112:02 | power up because because uh if you have air conditioning, wind can do |
|
112:06 | pretty good job on keeping your power up. But uh the heat went |
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112:10 | and the power went, uh went and uh and, and they were |
|
112:15 | to get natural gas and here is . And again, um I love |
|
112:27 | , there's Iceland down. Everybody would Iceland I is 100% geothermal. |
|
112:33 | you know, I, I don't they have a million people. Norway's |
|
112:38 | got 4.5 5 million people. Norway a lot of hydroelectric power and uh |
|
112:45 | of that, uh they actually, they actually uh provide electricity to almost |
|
112:50 | of Sweden with the surplus. But , it has to do with |
|
112:56 | If you have a small population, can do it. If you have |
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112:59 | gigantic population, you're in trouble. , where's the next biggest uh |
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113:05 | Where is the biggest thing? It's even on there is the biggest country |
|
113:13 | the next biggest country are, and this is the third one. |
|
113:20 | , I'm not even sure if us the third Russian. Ok. And |
|
113:30 | um here's hydroelectric, then here they this thing. This is, they |
|
113:40 | have production for because they have a when it runs and they know how |
|
113:45 | is coming. They don't tell you . And uh the US uh used |
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113:56 | be one of the biggest China, course, uh is the biggest. |
|
113:59 | , they, um they literally impounding and millions of acres of land and |
|
114:07 | , I think, well over a people to build the reservoir. And |
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114:11 | and now they have this massive, , uh, present. We're now |
|
114:18 | produces a lot of, but it's a small amount compared to, to |
|
114:23 | that we need. Um, uh, Norway down here. |
|
114:30 | again they, uh, they have small population so even though they're way |
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114:34 | on the list, they're actually paying almost all of their electricity or producing |
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114:40 | all of their electricity and just from view to the limits And, |
|
114:47 | the way they, uh, they so much electricity, um, their |
|
114:52 | heat is you have cleaning force and run on a special, um, |
|
114:57 | underneath them. They put out heat resistance and it's, uh, it's |
|
115:02 | be the most inefficient way to provide heat here. A simple heat. |
|
115:07 | know that they have so much, cheap. Hm. And, and |
|
115:13 | only have 4.5 to 5 million people keep warm. Uh, it does |
|
115:19 | cold but, uh, the coldest in my life that I've ever lived |
|
115:23 | in Oklahoma and the hottest day was Oklahoma. And, uh, |
|
115:28 | uh, where I lived in Norway never got as cold as some of |
|
115:31 | winters in Okla because we were so away from the ocean, um, |
|
115:38 | , so to speak. And bottom is, is that all of these |
|
115:43 | are still, if you, if you take away the subsidies, |
|
115:46 | still really expensive. This isn't what gonna pay for that. Energy. |
|
115:52 | , when your, when your electric gas or your electric bill, but |
|
115:56 | , but it is what it costs put, uh, put this much |
|
116:00 | , not production, but to put much capacity online, uh, it |
|
116:05 | an awful lot of money. Um thing that's interesting is that, |
|
116:15 | natural gas is, is definitely still . This might be cheaper than this |
|
116:20 | now just because some of these prices over time. But in general, |
|
116:24 | is still pretty much the same And, um, here's one for |
|
116:32 | and here we're not talking about uh Watts or kilowatts. We're just |
|
116:38 | we're just uh tera watts or megawatts anything like that. We're just talking |
|
116:45 | uh a kilowatt and uh this is dollar price for these different things. |
|
116:50 | you can see again here that there's a broad range of these |
|
116:54 | Hydroelectric is one of the cheapest. to do hydroelectric, you have to |
|
116:58 | on something for the most part. have to take away people's phones. |
|
117:02 | There's a, um, there's two in South Carolina, um, the |
|
117:08 | and uh one of lake tree and there was uh like, uh just |
|
117:15 | World war two, they started, built these things so they get power |
|
117:19 | and use the fuel tanks, you know, on the battlefield and |
|
117:24 | , the, the ships for bunker and that sort of thing. But |
|
117:29 | , but uh this is probably one the most efficient ones. But |
|
117:32 | it has a huge environmental impact. , some of the lakes that we |
|
117:37 | to go fishing on are nice things . So, in some ways it |
|
117:40 | to the environment. Uh, but , it's a, it's a costly |
|
117:43 | because you need that acreage and people live on acreage, especially with the |
|
117:48 | of the world now, 8 instead of 2.5 billion. Excuse |
|
117:58 | Um I forget what it is, know, something cost of energy or |
|
118:10 | . Yeah, that's what it is . That's kind of looking at some |
|
118:18 | the, uh that's looking at some the uh outside costs. So |
|
118:21 | this strips away uh the subsidies or of subsidies. Ok. And so |
|
118:33 | we talk about alternate energy, I there's several slights of hand, when |
|
118:37 | the growth potential that we think of overemphasized? And part of that is |
|
118:42 | we, we explain it in capacity production. Uh Another part of it |
|
118:48 | there's a focus when they talk about it does for us, they talk |
|
118:54 | so many houses with electrical power. don't talk about the overall global need |
|
118:59 | energy. And uh and then it , it is heavily subsidized so |
|
119:05 | Um, you know, the US was, was hitting people $7000 to |
|
119:14 | it and not a subsidy or a break to buy any electric cars. |
|
119:19 | uh, the day after that was , Ford said they're gonna increase the |
|
119:23 | of their electric truck by 7, . So that's a huge part of |
|
119:31 | of this. It's not cheating. , it is. Anyway, |
|
119:37 | it is. It's a little bit . But, uh, um, |
|
119:42 | anyway, um, and half of the alternates are hydrocarbons and one of |
|
119:47 | last charts, the hydro, the part was down to something to |
|
119:52 | So they're trying to make some, headway on that. I think the |
|
119:56 | that they're trying to do uh farming a different way to stop overturning the |
|
120:00 | is gonna help if they, if keep thinking about how big this problem |
|
120:05 | and that we need to address you know, even down to the |
|
120:09 | of how much pressure goes to that , you know, these little details |
|
120:13 | make a lot of money. And another amazing thing about all of this |
|
120:17 | conservation. You know, you share ride with somebody just have the bill |
|
120:23 | hand just like that, you and uh so conservation is still one |
|
120:29 | the most important things and I don't anybody pushing that politically um in a |
|
120:35 | that they should to help us get where we're gonna. And uh and |
|
120:39 | course, the wealthier countries might be ones that can do more conservation just |
|
120:46 | , you know, we, we enough infrastructure and what not to do |
|
120:50 | . Uh You know, if you're a developing country, you might not |
|
120:54 | al alternate means. You know, , there may only be one person |
|
120:58 | one bus and everybody's on that bus . You know, there's nothing else |
|
121:02 | can do to uh to get their needs lower. So, uh so |
|
121:07 | , it does behoove all of us these wealthier countries to really consider uh |
|
121:13 | more efforts in terms of our own conservation methods. Uh I didn't do |
|
121:18 | of a job when I got a car, but, uh, but |
|
121:22 | did get a diesel car and, , um, I would like to |
|
121:26 | that. Uh, uh, I'm, I'm, it's in the |
|
121:30 | for a, um, emissions thing an Audi and I, and it |
|
121:34 | completely repaired, but even after the repairs that they had to do on |
|
121:39 | , uh, over the last couple months I've had about half a dozen |
|
121:44 | that I've been able to get in on an average of 44 MPG with |
|
121:50 | diesel car and my loaner car, is a brand new 2023 a high |
|
121:56 | two liter engine on the best day gotten, uh, 27 miles to |
|
122:02 | gallon, which is, you um, just a little bit more |
|
122:06 | half. So that's not working. wasting a lot of gas right |
|
122:12 | If, uh, people that have cars hopped into my car. |
|
122:16 | it would save a lot of fuel , uh, if we all drove |
|
122:21 | little bit more carefully, we would a lot of people too. |
|
122:28 | So, uh, I don't think need to read this, but this |
|
122:31 | a summary of what this, this lecture was all about. |
|
122:35 | uh, and I, and I it's an important, uh, I |
|
122:38 | it seems like, uh, non stuff. No, geology, |
|
122:42 | the sciences. But you know, you go out and look for |
|
122:46 | you got to have an idea of important it is. And I think |
|
122:49 | anything, I just told you in of uh the politics that make the |
|
122:55 | of oil and gas go up, what I just showed you strongly suggests |
|
123:00 | need for oil and gas is, hypercritical for the survival of the farm |
|
123:06 | our city. Yeah. And I think you can deny that. I |
|
123:10 | , uh when I, when I my choice to not worry about and |
|
123:16 | went into the oil industry, I every day I was providing fuel, |
|
123:21 | hospitals, schools, all sorts of and uh and industry and just, |
|
123:27 | an important thing. It's totally directly to or I say to directly related |
|
123:34 | GDP S in developing countries, the . So uh it's really an important |
|
123:42 | to remember. But uh being able provide this source of energy is still |
|
123:46 | be important. Uh, there may to be a threat but, uh |
|
123:52 | on the rate at which we're, replacing the hydrocarbons with alternates is, |
|
123:57 | desperately low and that's not to stop doing that. That's to |
|
124:01 | please do more. I'm gonna get of your way, do whatever you |
|
124:05 | to do and may, maybe you'll producing, you know, displacing 1% |
|
124:10 | 2% or even 3% a year. , uh, that will still take |
|
124:15 | guys to the end of your career your young ages. Yeah. |
|
124:42 | this would be a good time to a break. I can find my |
|
124:53 | again. That's when I, I into trouble when I get, does |
|
124:56 | see my cursor on the other? . Um, the way I'm gonna |
|
126:01 | these recordings in general is usually the will be one recording but the, |
|
126:08 | , the, I mean, excuse , the Friday will be one |
|
126:10 | but the Saturdays will be a morning an afternoon. I try not to |
|
126:14 | them too big. Uh, makes a little bit easier to work. |
|
126:21 | . So now we're gonna look at lot of the terms and concepts that |
|
126:24 | , uh, that we deal with . And, uh, the first |
|
126:28 | is what is petroleum geoscience? uh, I used to have a |
|
126:32 | bunch of slides, uh, you know, if somebody teaches sequence |
|
126:37 | , they define it. Structural sometimes they define it. But if |
|
126:41 | a practical, I think a thing of your book, uh, is |
|
126:46 | best thing. Uh, 2004 I don't think it changed in the |
|
126:51 | edition which just came out about a and a half ago. Uh, |
|
126:55 | , um, uh, but that's kind of how I see it |
|
126:59 | a definition. It's, um, , physics, as they applied to |
|
127:06 | the origin distribution of properties of petroleum petroleum bearings. And uh it also |
|
127:13 | to producing it too, figuring out these days. This is, this |
|
127:19 | much covers um all of what we in frontier and exploration when we get |
|
127:29 | uh appraisal distribution of properties becomes really when it comes to development and |
|
127:37 | that part it's important to. But it helps to know a little bit |
|
127:44 | how things are produced and that kind thing uh to understand how you can |
|
127:48 | those questions as a geoscientist. And again, here's the value chain |
|
127:55 | uh what the value chain is. uh it looks at, you |
|
128:02 | how do we look at these things how are we focusing on the value |
|
128:07 | a property? Um these different stages of actually a petroleum system and a |
|
128:17 | because at some point in time, part of the frontier project and then |
|
128:22 | becomes an exploration project. It could be part of an exploitation uh further |
|
128:30 | early development of uh of, of first initial well and that initial fault |
|
128:37 | whatever it is, uh a few the next couple of steps might also |
|
128:42 | considered exploration. Uh But then when , you venture outside of that |
|
128:48 | but to something that's very similar in of its the Asian, the |
|
128:53 | the sort of rock types of structures the sea and the prospects and that |
|
128:58 | of thing. Um is what exploitation all about. Then appraisal is of |
|
129:02 | focusing in on those things and trying figure out um exactly how big you |
|
129:09 | it is a limited number of the number of data uh put into |
|
129:15 | And then when you get to the , you're looking this, this is |
|
129:19 | a lot of this is based on data, some dynamic data, but |
|
129:24 | gets, this really uh leans heavily dynamic data when you get into development |
|
129:29 | production. And if I asked you , um I don't know if I |
|
129:41 | it out because it was saying things it slightly different. If I, |
|
129:47 | I ever ask you what the what are the four steps of the |
|
129:50 | chain? This is how I would it. There's six steps in |
|
129:54 | but these two are very, these , these have a really strong handshake |
|
129:59 | these two down here have a very but uh this is definitely doing something |
|
130:06 | . This is definitely uh I think really key stick that has a lot |
|
130:12 | things that you need to focus on do that. Right. And, |
|
130:16 | , that's what your mapping exercise It's an attempt to appraise a field |
|
130:20 | a few wells in it. Um, this is the way it |
|
130:37 | to be. Um, and I'm , I'm a geologist so I guess |
|
130:44 | got to apologize for that. uh, the, uh, the |
|
130:50 | for us to get a rock is we can touch in a or a |
|
130:56 | that a tool is touching directly. And I call that hard geological |
|
131:02 | Um I know we had a um about three years ago, we had |
|
131:06 | grad student that was signing uh rock to um to and everybody and good |
|
131:17 | that they called the geological data soft and the seismic market. The seismic |
|
131:25 | is, is just another form of remote sensing. And uh or I |
|
131:30 | say just an incredible uh type of sensing and the real hard geological data |
|
131:36 | a geologist is being able to um and touch that rock with our hand |
|
131:44 | eyes and uh or have a tool actually touches, not one that just |
|
131:50 | energy waste to it. And uh all of the, the myriad |
|
131:55 | of issues with uh acquisition of data all of the issues with processing that |
|
132:00 | problem. Although uh the people that on it were really clever. They're |
|
132:05 | amazing things. I still am amazed it actually works. Uh You |
|
132:09 | you have all these sound waves, all these energy waves bouncing off of |
|
132:15 | multiple uh horizons and uh and they're to keep track of all the different |
|
132:22 | and when the, how far the are uh uh have, have |
|
132:26 | it helps, you know, that have more than GEO one GEO phone |
|
132:31 | uh and that sort of thing. uh when we have a 3d G |
|
132:34 | grid, that's uh that's a whole different ballgame. And, and some |
|
132:38 | the onshore things can be a lot um um detailed in terms of, |
|
132:46 | , of data because, you they can, if they want, |
|
132:50 | can automatically use uh geophones, they uh handle she waves and all sorts |
|
132:56 | converted waves and uh uh offshore stuff work with converted waves, but |
|
133:02 | but they don't um necessarily have a to uh to do shear waves unless |
|
133:07 | have ocean bottom type sensors. uh what this slide talks about though |
|
133:14 | uh normally uh the geological effort was big up here because this was, |
|
133:20 | used to call it the sexy end our business because it was, had |
|
133:24 | lot of money. Ok. There a lot of money in it, |
|
133:27 | I don't know if it's even um correct to use that term anymore. |
|
133:33 | uh but nevertheless, where there's it, you know, it's, |
|
133:36 | kind of uh invigorates people, And so uh uh not so much |
|
133:43 | the frontier, but when we got exploration exploitation, that's where all this |
|
133:47 | is and part of the money was acquisition of, I think one of |
|
133:53 | reason why uh geophysics did so well the oil industry is because uh they |
|
134:00 | to invest a lot of money to it, They had to invest a |
|
134:04 | of money to process it and interpret . And uh because of that, |
|
134:08 | became a huge part of the geoscience . And if it's a bigger |
|
134:13 | that's gonna, you know, create um activity and the interest. But |
|
134:19 | said all that as geologists, uh lot of us would work down at |
|
134:23 | end. And at this end, have, we often have no weathers |
|
134:30 | this point. They only have Well, at this point, we |
|
134:35 | have a few wells. When we down here, we might have a |
|
134:39 | to hundreds of wells. Uh And have the longest of, but as |
|
134:44 | move in this direction, we often the past have not gotten a lot |
|
134:49 | poor data and other stuff that cost lot of money. I actually sent |
|
134:54 | wells, I sat in the cast to make sure that it didn't |
|
134:58 | I could figure out what the age the rocks were because we were, |
|
135:02 | were like, uh part of our was to drill with a certain horizon |
|
135:07 | I could identify that with, with without doing it before. Um And |
|
135:14 | , they drove before I got out , ended up having four in |
|
135:20 | uh, by the time that they it, it was $8 million task |
|
135:24 | get uh a good core out of , out of that section to prove |
|
135:27 | they reached the uh their contract uh that they had to penetrate according to |
|
135:34 | license keeps popping in and out And uh but what's happening right now |
|
135:44 | , with unconventional and uh also uh even seismic is starting to get really |
|
135:52 | down here uh with four D uh four dimensional stuff. In other |
|
135:57 | , they have the 3d plus plus uh on there. So you can |
|
136:02 | actually thing, dynamic, things changing the reservoir. Uh But geologists are |
|
136:08 | to do more and more of the down here. But in the |
|
136:12 | it was really heavy up on this for geologically effort and uh lighter on |
|
136:17 | end. And I always found it sort of strange that where all the |
|
136:22 | is. We weren't, we weren't geologists. OK. Um The diff |
|
136:30 | types of uh things that we of course, of course, sidewalk |
|
136:34 | cuttings, fire line logs, you , seismic. And uh there's even |
|
136:40 | things that we can do with seismic help us see um depositional faces now |
|
136:47 | a, on a um on the and that sort of thing. So |
|
136:51 | really uh becoming a, a really powerful tool even though it is, |
|
136:56 | is a form of remote sensing. the imaging is, is, is |
|
137:00 | getting absolutely fantastic and uh probably will a whole lot better while you |
|
137:07 | And um and then of course, in this part, um when you |
|
137:18 | down to here, all of these that we, we get very little |
|
137:22 | up in the top and uh we to pick up as we go into |
|
137:26 | and um in production. And what you think happens within conventions? What |
|
137:35 | of tools do you think we look there? It gets a little tougher |
|
137:42 | do some of these things because some these things require, require, uh |
|
137:46 | helps to have vertical. So, a lot of this stuff goes on |
|
137:52 | unconventional before we, uh often before in an area that we're gonna do |
|
138:03 | rock. Uh Yeah, that from get that from the cuttings. We |
|
138:10 | a whole lot of things from the , from the cuttings. We can |
|
138:13 | uh uh we can do Rocky Bell some of the cars, we |
|
138:19 | you know, we can, we if we can pull some of the |
|
138:23 | stuff out, we can, we do stuff with it if we, |
|
138:26 | we get oil we can do you know, we can, |
|
138:28 | do a lot of things with But, uh, but uh |
|
138:33 | for his help, we can do with cuttings. It's a little bit |
|
138:36 | difficult, uh, with, with those sorts of things. But, |
|
138:40 | , we do, we have a done uh in terms of the analysis |
|
138:44 | these different things, the best tool a geologist that is work as you |
|
138:48 | see, sedimentary structures. Sidewalk courses good too because you can't see and |
|
138:54 | know exactly where it be, they a little bit of a, |
|
139:01 | uh, mud lining to parts of . But, uh, that's coming |
|
139:04 | a place to cuttings. You have calculate, uh, the return rate |
|
139:09 | the, uh, the cuttings to out exactly where it is. And |
|
139:12 | worked with in the industry, I've with cuttings a lot and quite often |
|
139:15 | really, really good sometimes the uh, sometimes you almost have to |
|
139:21 | the cores with the cuttings because you like a 30 ft four and, |
|
139:27 | , some of these ones where they the weight on it. So, |
|
139:31 | stuff and they actually started 34 went 10 ft and then figure out what |
|
139:40 | of the 10 ft did you 20 ft or with the 30 |
|
139:44 | And, um, I, I've stuff actually in the field with Splints |
|
139:49 | bores and stuff like that. what's not on this list and something |
|
139:53 | I've used when I did my dissertation uh os with big places for doing |
|
139:59 | course and stuff. And I can bring that for foundations. But you |
|
140:05 | this thing in, in the ground the, in the court, depending |
|
140:09 | the nature of the rock through you pull the section up and sale |
|
140:14 | . You just have to take the off of it, but the just |
|
140:17 | down it. So go in 5 5 ft, you are put in |
|
140:27 | and I'll say you got a really uh in uh look at uh what's |
|
140:32 | on. So there's a lot of like that that we can do. |
|
140:36 | , we'll talk about some of this in more detail that you can get |
|
140:47 | , oh, I know and you get an awful lot out of |
|
140:49 | Yeah. And, and, and , and uh calculating the lag time |
|
140:53 | , is amazing because I, I've at, you know, samples that |
|
140:57 | almost closer interval than you should. , uh you know, you, |
|
141:02 | have to always realize that, you , to take a sample, this |
|
141:06 | what was at that point uh in over that interval. It was never |
|
141:11 | a point getting the uh the absolute of the sidewalk floor and the floor |
|
141:16 | , is a really good thing. But, but that's really expensive. |
|
141:21 | are very expensive in, uh in soft rocks, like in the |
|
141:26 | of Mexico when I worked on a courses weren't too bad because, because |
|
141:31 | didn't have to have the little, , thing that would, uh, |
|
141:35 | into the, that just, had a charge on it. So |
|
141:39 | like something like a, an uh, 35 millimeter film jar that |
|
141:43 | pop in there and you'd pull it . Sometimes the car is in |
|
141:47 | Sometimes it's not. but you might a, a string of 35 or |
|
141:51 | . And uh, and you 60 70 80% of them would come |
|
141:56 | with something in them and then you use that. Ok. So, |
|
142:04 | I've already said this. So I don't need to say it again. |
|
142:08 | , you know, the dollar marks , is why the focus was there |
|
142:12 | uh exploration was where we put a of money. And uh but |
|
142:17 | uh we're doing more of the appraisal production and development areas and uh what |
|
142:24 | like hi do. And there's a of companies similar to this in the |
|
142:28 | Sea and some of these other there's, there's a huge amount of |
|
142:33 | in, in the Gulf of Mexico the shell because a lot of the |
|
142:36 | oil companies have kind of moved away the shell and uh, and uh |
|
142:41 | around South Marshall on 1 28. know there's huge pockets of oil that |
|
142:46 | one's drilled yet. But uh you know, it's too much work |
|
142:54 | who could use an extra million dollars . You know, if you tell |
|
142:59 | a billion, I'll, I'll get it. But anyway, um and |
|
143:04 | they'll take all the money. um uh so the big expenses in |
|
143:09 | past has been this uh recently because gone to a lot of uh unconventional |
|
143:17 | um offshore seismic activity is really, uh expiration will drop up. A |
|
143:24 | of the seismic companies are having a difficult time getting, getting a lot |
|
143:29 | going and what not. But I it's gonna pick up uh here in |
|
143:32 | near future uh for a number of . And of course, the |
|
143:38 | certainly is one of them where they're be doing a lot of seism in |
|
143:42 | future and they've already done quite a . Yeah. Yeah. The thing |
|
143:47 | it, the minute you, a lot of times too they'll do |
|
143:50 | spec data and they'll, they'll go there with C DS or maybe, |
|
143:55 | some, uh less than uh robust data to sort of find out if |
|
144:02 | worth spending the money. Once they out it's worth spending the money, |
|
144:05 | they start doing. I, one the projects I worked in, in |
|
144:09 | the North Sea and the chalk uh We were able to show them |
|
144:13 | they were missing uh actually 400 million of oil. And, uh that |
|
144:19 | them the incentive to, uh, ocean bottom, uh, seismic seismometers |
|
144:26 | , uh, OVS or, uh, whatever they call them |
|
144:30 | in the, um, so they do, uh, shear waves and |
|
144:33 | top of the, um, of waves because, uh, uh, |
|
144:39 | , what do you find, what find in a lot of places where |
|
144:42 | a lot of oil is you have clouds. If you have gas clouds |
|
144:46 | up in the talks, there are exception or you have uh gas seeping |
|
144:51 | of the reservoirs creates a, it , really difficult to and um almost |
|
145:00 | I ever did a lot of technical it was a for the work as |
|
145:05 | . So, uh you go to talk, you're gonna see only the |
|
145:10 | stuff, right? Uh 400 gallons it has 4 million galls of |
|
145:23 | Ok. Ok. You found 400 million barrels of oil in a, |
|
145:28 | a field. How do you excuse me? How did you guys |
|
145:34 | it? Uh We got samples and figured out what the superiority was, |
|
145:40 | realized that, you know, there a lot of uh a lot of |
|
145:50 | and there wasn't any new software just at samples and doing better correlations and |
|
145:55 | out single size and you didn't see the Yes. Uh So they |
|
146:02 | they could almost see nothing. And you, when you get, uh |
|
146:06 | you do the Jurassic in the North , which is well below the chalks |
|
146:11 | start looking at the Jurassic, a of that energy that you would wanna |
|
146:15 | to see sands. You can't, doesn't work. Now, this, |
|
146:23 | was looking at samples and figuring out stray with geology that it, they're |
|
146:31 | doing it, they're still doing You can't, you can't get energy |
|
146:36 | , through gas are not about, , I, I'll show you what |
|
146:44 | clouds look at and you can Yeah, it's, it's not something |
|
146:47 | can process away, uh, if , if, but what they did |
|
146:53 | was they put O BS on the , it's just really expensive. But |
|
146:57 | they put O BS on the they could use shear waves and they |
|
147:00 | see through the gas clouds. So they can see through the gas clouds |
|
147:04 | they found another 100 million barrels when did that and they use software to |
|
147:11 | that. Ok. Um, uh, what a lot of geologists |
|
147:24 | , uh, when we get in conven conventional is they spend a lot |
|
147:27 | time geo theory. And, there's also, uh, a thing |
|
147:32 | bios Steering and I'll explain that to in a future lecture. But, |
|
147:36 | , but right now they, they do steering a lot and |
|
147:41 | ge steering works pretty well and, it's gotten to be a pretty good |
|
147:44 | but it's still difficult because as you imagine, uh, there's a couple |
|
147:49 | uh inherent problems. So normally if look at a products go like |
|
148:02 | the tools come down and the tools actually go out this week and |
|
148:10 | what, what they're measuring is this away from the wealth of the, |
|
148:14 | not in front of the wealth or way, way. And when you |
|
148:19 | when you go down in a your tools are still doing this. |
|
148:27 | uh and so coming between these unless you have these layers vertical, |
|
148:35 | it's, it's really hard to, don't have needs on. You could |
|
148:40 | five, you look for a series spikes like this, but you're gonna |
|
148:47 | drilling in here. How do you if you're in here? This is |
|
148:52 | you want to be uh because the goes like this and we're gonna come |
|
148:58 | the sand and when we turn up like that or whatever, um It's |
|
149:02 | difficult actually seeing photography with the tools have with now, you know that |
|
149:12 | sensors sets out in this direction and just the way it is, you |
|
149:17 | , they, but uh they send these fields, you can go farther |
|
149:24 | farther out in that house. So when you come along and you |
|
149:28 | you're starting, you can characterize this uh type of uh and uh so |
|
149:46 | focus so that you can get figure what the is more rather than |
|
149:56 | But even so when you go across , you know, taking into everything |
|
150:00 | in that place. So, you , we still using that, |
|
150:04 | you're looking at each one when when you're crossing layers, you become |
|
150:10 | complicated and uh I think can be , and um, and, and |
|
150:18 | , it doesn't always work. one of the things, um we |
|
150:23 | until we get the bio before I about. OK. Uh Then there's |
|
150:33 | another thing that, that they work is focus on higher volumes, higher |
|
150:37 | rates. One of the things that a unconventional geologist says is that |
|
150:42 | know they have a, that the was the and the produced a lot |
|
150:48 | so a lot of the things that do in front of their aspiration. |
|
150:51 | trying to figure out if we have source, we're trying to figure out |
|
150:54 | we have a, have a reservoir . Uh Here, you already know |
|
150:58 | a pro that source. It, a proven respiratory of the technology that |
|
151:04 | use it and actually extract the oil from something that's very, very |
|
151:09 | And of course, uh laterals prove hydrofracking, of course, uh uh |
|
151:15 | you to put photo channels into the away from the board. And uh |
|
151:23 | it also increases the surface area We work. The big advantage with |
|
151:27 | is I have 300 I see here here, here I've had 300 times |
|
151:35 | comforts of that of that uh production or whatever, the, the excuse |
|
151:40 | , the uh the production line. um and that's all you have. |
|
151:47 | when you um when you have something five miles long, that surface area |
|
151:53 | becomes five miles to set the circumstances then the further enhance it, you |
|
152:01 | you uh fracture and uh put it the, pop it up so that |
|
152:07 | may have more blood channels so that surface area might become that mild. |
|
152:12 | this surface area too. So the area been exposed with a pressure differential |
|
152:20 | for them. And that's why I it doesn't draw for very long and |
|
152:25 | far away. OK. Um So , in frontier, regular frontier, |
|
152:39 | know, it's, it's a very thing. Uh Is it a is |
|
152:42 | a big one of the things is you want to know if the uh |
|
152:50 | reservoir is gonna be large. Uh overall basin type has something to do |
|
152:55 | this where your depot centers has something do with this. Uh what types |
|
153:00 | structures you have and uh and size always in work. And uh so |
|
153:07 | we're looking at some of these doesn't have any structure or not. |
|
153:11 | Normally when we would get uh still it, we get, you |
|
153:14 | some of your two D size you do some uh your view of |
|
153:19 | area. One of the things that look for any types of things that |
|
153:24 | like fracturing and stuff like that, that can, can create seals and |
|
153:29 | that can create volume. Uh The one is, doesn't have any organic |
|
153:34 | deposits. You're not gonna have a or if you don't have a |
|
153:39 | right? So that's really important. other one is how the organics been |
|
153:46 | . So when you're doing frontier and , you wanna make sure all these |
|
153:50 | have a um of a uh petroleum actually exist in that basin you're |
|
154:00 | So, uh your books from the Sea, this is from the book |
|
154:04 | uh it's not in color, but graphic is a little bit better from |
|
154:07 | second edition than it is from the . And uh and here you can |
|
154:12 | um uh all of those things come play here in terms of where we |
|
154:20 | have potential for charged reservoirs that we produce oil and gas. So just |
|
154:26 | a quick look at this. Does have any idea? You just had |
|
154:30 | geology? Does anybody have any idea type of basin this is? Excuse |
|
154:41 | , how many think it's a Riff ? Does it say it's a rip |
|
154:51 | on it? Raise your hand if think it's a Riff Basin? |
|
154:59 | Stephanie didn't take the class. You . Oh, you were instructions. |
|
155:03 | . Yeah, she, she have her hand. Go ahead. You're |
|
155:07 | . It's a Riff basin. So what you're looking at this particular |
|
155:14 | of basin because of the, because the way it's formed and its evolution |
|
155:21 | a lot of different things in Uh that are parts of the petroleum |
|
155:27 | and there is a rift. I me, that's a reservoir, the |
|
155:31 | , the reservoir, here's a Uh But just looking at this |
|
155:39 | um what do you, what kind reserve do you think that is this |
|
155:51 | right here? You haven't had sequences Tier? Hm? OK. Uh |
|
156:12 | , what type of uh sediments do think are in this, this particular |
|
156:16 | here? What what uh I'll give again. What status it to |
|
156:23 | Yeah. Um That's good. every everything, everything that they learned |
|
156:33 | build price class except for Stephanie, was it? Everything you learn to |
|
156:38 | a price place. Let me take to Yeah, that, that's what |
|
157:00 | getting at. Where is it Yeah. With the T A already |
|
157:05 | it away. If you listen, didn't hear. OK. Uh |
|
157:11 | this is a rip. What's really in rip basins is when they, |
|
157:14 | you get that ripping and it's active sometimes it's this end actually pops up |
|
157:22 | . So you get a mountain on side and a depression on the other |
|
157:26 | , you had a sequence stratigraphy. would know you're creating something called accommodation |
|
157:31 | here for sediments on this side and popping this up in the air. |
|
157:35 | happens to rock and pop up in air in the end? The |
|
157:45 | And uh yes, coarse grain stuff flying down on and the bray sands |
|
157:50 | the North Sea look just like Uh If you had a nice seismic |
|
157:54 | here, you could see these big and outs coming right off. There's |
|
157:58 | uplift, there's an uplift. Uh where the South Viking Robin and the |
|
158:05 | go together and right there at that in the central Gravis down here, |
|
158:09 | a triple junction and you get tons tons of sediment coming off the high |
|
158:14 | into that. If you go to East African Riffs, uh you see |
|
158:18 | same kind of things, one side the, of the uh rip lakes |
|
158:22 | pop up and you have sediments pouring that river face. And uh when |
|
158:27 | was a rift, this was all up here is all a lot |
|
158:32 | It wasn't, it wasn't sagging like because the rip was caused by the |
|
158:37 | up the underneath it. But over millions of years, it's taken for |
|
158:42 | to develop, uh it's cooled and the um the pre wrap ripped and |
|
158:48 | the sin ripped uh features uh sagged it and the poster stuff covered it |
|
158:56 | like it is. Now, in words, started to fill in, |
|
158:59 | can see this one is pretty much same fitness right after the thermal subit |
|
159:04 | in. So here you're seeing gets here, there's more thermal subsidence in |
|
159:11 | middle. A little bit more a little bit more. It's standing |
|
159:14 | the edges here now. But when this first these first layers were |
|
159:18 | down um in the lower Cretaceous and Cretaceous, you would have seen um |
|
159:26 | something that looked more like flatline beds , but as, as you |
|
159:31 | it was up like this and then went like this again, this is |
|
159:37 | you do in front of your You look at the basin, the |
|
159:39 | style and that basic style will give a hint as to what kind of |
|
159:44 | rocks you could have. And it all one. Here's a reservoir rock |
|
159:49 | a pre reservoir rock, sin here's a reservoir route. And |
|
159:57 | so the whole development of that particular of basin creates different areas where there's |
|
160:05 | space and there's erosion somewhere in What do these things look like? |
|
160:21 | , this is the dunes are a feature. So it's not a doom |
|
160:25 | , but, but you kind of an idea, you get close to |
|
160:32 | . So nobody talked about, what you call these things have that? |
|
160:39 | , I'm gonna get you a, not cross bet. Yeah, |
|
160:51 | it's a cross betting. Cross betting be. Oh, there's some right |
|
161:03 | . Such a small scale. You see. I'm just tired. Is |
|
161:07 | called Clio Forms? And these, and that, and I don't know |
|
161:12 | you noticed, but here's one that out here, here's another one that |
|
161:17 | grades out in this direction. Here's one that pros out in this |
|
161:21 | Here's another one that prograde out in direction. Now, if I tell |
|
161:25 | that sediments are progra out into the , where would the sandstone go in |
|
161:32 | these kind of again? You, you don't know what a final form |
|
161:37 | , you know, it's completed, the final forms are the that you |
|
161:42 | , it's like they, the kind forms. But in between, this |
|
161:50 | is the kind of form that the in between is called the what? |
|
162:00 | don't know if this is what, uh but you know, when |
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162:05 | when you take his class, you want to ask him because he knows |
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162:08 | the climate is or better yet. asked them to point out the kind |
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162:13 | them was talking about. So you , you know, it's, it's |
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162:21 | , I think it's from the latter be the, but uh either way |
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162:25 | , would uh basically, OK. it's a, so it's an in |
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162:30 | thing and these are the forms showing that there's curved sedimentary rocks in here |
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162:39 | the things inside there are kind of , yeah, it's exciting data and |
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162:54 | see these kind of them, everybody excited. OK. Sometimes the clients |
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163:00 | so small you can't even see them and that's where the high resolution ended |
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163:07 | . A million dollars you can Ok. So what do you think |
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163:14 | YESES are, those are source box kind of right on top of the |
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163:24 | the Sin Rift. Uh That's the Ridge play in the north. And |
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163:33 | there's several layers of the Cambridge And uh yes, there's a, |
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163:42 | actually two tops to the Kim ridge a lot of people don't know |
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163:45 | And so a lot of uh a in the top of the Jurassic and |
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163:50 | across the Cretaceous Jurassic boundary is awfully uh highly confounded by the fact that |
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163:58 | a huge, there's a huge um this boundary Strat, breaking this all |
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164:04 | way across the in our city and sexual problems at the. Ok. |
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164:13 | these are source rocks. And uh do you think this, the sea |
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164:20 | for? Hm. Right. So, uh and uh they |
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164:32 | they use the C for cat rock , because if they use the, |
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164:35 | , you wouldn't know the difference between rock and the seal. And so |
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164:40 | are three of the most important the other important elements. Uh You |
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164:45 | , the thing is that no, these source rocks have matured and also |
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164:55 | uh migration, that migration to charge particular thing here, you have a |
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165:03 | rock that's right next to a reservoir here. You have a source rock |
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165:06 | right underneath oil goes uphill. Uh you have a source rock that could |
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165:11 | charging things up here and uh this a world class. So source rock |
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165:15 | Cambridge play, it's often 8% toc the time or better. Uh It's |
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165:21 | , it's a really amazing marine source . It's not as good as a |
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165:25 | marine source rock in terms of to , but it's, uh it's definitely |
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165:29 | for a marine source rock. So these are some of the things |
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165:37 | we look at and we need uh find in frontier, in conventional |
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165:43 | Um And one of the, the that's important to remember is, you |
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165:50 | , when, when we look at conventions, what we're doing is coming |
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165:55 | looking for one of these source walks we know has that has. |
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166:00 | Um, it sells a lot of , but at the same time, |
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166:05 | a lot of oil stuff and there's need to go create a huge surface |
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166:11 | so we can. And so the of finding oil and gas in an |
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166:16 | confessional well is very low, but , the price is small, each |
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166:20 | is much smaller. So, you , you might spend, um, |
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166:26 | $6 million or even more of the . Uh but you might not get |
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166:30 | more than that pack of oil. , uh it's sometimes it's, the |
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166:34 | is very slim. It's not like one well and being able to |
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166:41 | um say a good million dollars or million barrels of oil out of |
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166:47 | Well, uh you're not gonna, not gonna run into that. Uh |
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166:51 | of the plays that we show, had one exploration well, and uh |
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166:55 | help pay for the exploration effort, was in a country that made it |
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167:00 | to uh to make a profit. they, they were allowed to run |
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167:03 | test and dispose of the oil that out of the test. Of |
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167:08 | they sold it. Uh but they produced over a million barrels out |
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167:12 | the, out of the initial exploration , uh and ran a test that |
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167:17 | kept going for a while just to sure they understood the flow rate. |
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167:25 | . So the next kinds of things you need to do are uh risk |
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167:31 | . Once you know, there's something , you have to worry about where |
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167:34 | infrastructure is or not, you have worry about whether you have access to |
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167:39 | . You have to do, I a license, you have to get |
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167:40 | license. Um Is it shallow But if you need one or is |
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167:46 | shallow enough to, you know, have to have access to technological. |
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167:53 | else do we have to worry How can we turn that into an |
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167:58 | resource? What are the things that have to do? It's really an |
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168:04 | thing when you do make it, it or break it or chilly |
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168:20 | Uh, well, oil price, , affects everybody. So, |
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168:24 | that's another thing, uh, uh, the more difficult it is |
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168:29 | get out of the ground, the important it is. For example, |
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168:33 | , when I was, uh, girl in South Marc 1 28. |
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168:37 | , I bet our, uh, costs per barrel or less than probably |
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168:43 | than $2. Uh, if you to a conventional, well, |
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168:50 | one of the students that did a for did, did the auditing for |
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168:57 | . Uh, we went through and realize, and based on the cost |
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169:01 | cost of drilling the well, cracking well and disposing of what of the |
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169:09 | , uh, the waste water. , the most part, everybody needed |
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169:15 | know. Yes, to get $70 barrel for oil sales and they |
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169:25 | yeah. Uh, like, we're right there right now today. |
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169:28 | some of them as well as could having problems. But there are |
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169:33 | for example, like Chevron, it had a lot of acreage, |
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169:40 | , legacy increase in the Permian basin they didn't give up the rights, |
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169:45 | didn't do anything with it but sitting and all of a sudden, |
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169:50 | So they paid, they basically earn money to pay for their rights. |
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169:57 | , previously, now they, now getting more, much more oil out |
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170:01 | the ground so that right there could , cost $10.15 to $20 barrel. |
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170:11 | , so that becomes very fun. I'm really thinking another big was |
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170:19 | Yeah, what else is really important people overseas? And sometimes it can |
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170:25 | important and even in the US, is our political stability and, uh |
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170:37 | countries have civil wars going on. , some countries, once you start |
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170:44 | , they start, um, raising taxes on your lifting charges. They |
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170:49 | out that you're making some money, they live in the middle and then |
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170:53 | figure out a way to get more the best cost. They raise the |
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170:58 | again, raise. That's instability. are some of the things that are |
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171:05 | . Another thing even in the US Democratic Party from Obama is not going |
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171:12 | discuss for exploration. VP just blew for everybody. You literally blew it |
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171:20 | everybody. And uh and so that all shut in and all of the |
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171:26 | building was shut in for a long of time. And uh and |
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171:31 | that's political too, but it seems know based on uh poor behavior and |
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171:39 | set of one set of people. , it never came out with the |
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171:45 | CEO at the time of the Macondo . Hey, uh conversation with the |
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171:57 | and his uh his chief to get that thing. And then there's a |
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172:02 | bunch of words I can't say get that, do that because um they |
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172:08 | paying close to a million dollars a just to have a city and he |
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172:13 | us to get and, um, expense would have been nothing and it |
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172:20 | , it entered the entire industry. , uh, unfortunately it's something I |
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172:25 | . BP. Never, I don't , ever paid enough for because, |
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172:29 | it didn't just hurt, um, . They hurt the whole oil industry |
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172:34 | they did that. And I, think the oil industry was just a |
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172:38 | bit too sympathetic in some cases. I do know a lot of people |
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172:42 | work in the industry like me, were really horrified when they found out |
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172:47 | many steps they, they shortcutted to that rig moved. It was almost |
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172:52 | uh a a management dictate made them everything they were taught, especially about |
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173:00 | . OK? We'll do a couple slides and get out of here. |
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173:07 | This is a whole list of the concerns and exploration exploitation and I won't |
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173:13 | them again like I just did. uh all of these things become more |
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173:18 | at, at finer and finer And if you think about it, |
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173:23 | eventual exploration starts from outside the you know, we're trying to figure |
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173:28 | what's in that base and put me and we try to get the big |
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173:33 | of it. You know, what , what are its foundings begin inside |
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173:37 | boundaries? How the rocks popping dropping down, how sediment building out |
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173:42 | combination space all that kind of So we're trying to figure out how |
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173:46 | base is developed and while it was , how it could have possibly developed |
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173:50 | rescue and how that reserve could have an appropriate seal and how that could |
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173:55 | been in a precision to where um could have migrated to it and made |
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174:01 | to the service. So all these become more and more important. And |
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174:05 | , when we're doing an unconventional, skip that whole process because we know |
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174:09 | what it is. But we really to do an unconventional figure out what |
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174:15 | figure out if there's something else. , you know, we always focus |
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174:18 | the main product and a lot of places, uh, they're, they're |
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174:23 | at secondary source products and stuff like and actually making money producing them as |
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174:28 | . And if you look at the for, there's um, some tight |
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174:33 | reservoirs, the chalk above it, , that with the right approach, |
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174:38 | , you don't need to bracket because has a lot of natural fraction, |
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174:42 | there are some reservoirs produce relatively shallow and relatively low cost without paying for |
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174:49 | . You still get the, flu and gas out of the ground |
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174:52 | an extended lateral. Ok. uh, we take a little |
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175:07 | let's see, a little bit Look at this. I, I |
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175:10 | it's time to take a break. almost six o'clock. You guys looked |
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175:15 | , you finally woke up. Which good. You doing? Ok. |
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175:22 | . And, uh, um, glad everybody was here. I'll see |
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175:26 | bright and early tomorrow at 8 30 gonna start at 8 30. When |
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175:31 | you do the structural course? we, we're officially scheduled at eight |
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175:37 | I, but it's really hard for lot of people. Uh, I |
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175:41 | the only good thing about coming in Saturday is the traffic's not bad and |
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175:47 | no matter where we live we can here but watch out for wherever the |
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175:50 | closings are on the weekend. so you don't get too late and |
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175:54 | speed. I had a student one that, uh, got a ticket |
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175:59 | the way at class and he he wanted to blame it on me |
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176:03 | I'm like, and, uh, , just don't get in trouble. |
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176:12 | . And then, then you don't to be upset with me for asking |
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176:14 | to come here on set. All . Stop the |
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